ESPN FPI – Page 3 – Syndication Server

Wisconsin climbs ESPN FPI after Week 8 win over Northwestern

Wisconsin continues to trend positively in ESPN FPI after a third consecutive victory, this one a 23-3 win over Northwestern.

The Badgers rose three spots in the metric from No. 28 to No. 25 after the performance. They are up nearly 30 spots over the last few weeks after entering Week 7’s game at Rutgers ranked No. 54. FPI is paying attention to Wisconsin’s apparent resurgence — its three straight wins by a combined point margin of 117-16.

Movement across the Big Ten now sees Wisconsin ranked as the No. 6-best team in the conference, behind only Ohio State (No. 1), Oregon (No. 8), Penn State (No. 9), Indiana (No. 11) and USC (No. 15).

It moves forward to a tough finishing stretch with games against Penn State (No. 9), Iowa (No. 26), Oregon (No. 8), Nebraska (No. 58) and Minnesota (No. 45). FPI’s rest-of-season forecast for Wisconsin against that schedule includes a projected final record of 7.4 — 4.6, a 96.1% chance to reach bowl eligibility, a 0.9% chance to win the Big Ten and a 1.7% chance to make the College Football Playoff.

Wisconsin (5-2, 3-1 Big Ten) can take a big step toward Playoff contention with a home win over Penn State (6-0, 3-0 Big Ten) on Saturday. The game is quickly becoming one of the biggest of the Luke Fickell era to date.

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The Bucs see biggest move in ESPN’s Football Power Index after Week 6

Entering Week 6 as ESPN’s 15th-ranked team on its Football Power Index, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers saw the most significant move up the ranks.

Entering Week 6 as ESPN’s 15th-ranked team on its Football Power Index, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers saw the most significant move up the ranks and landed in the Top 10 following their 51-27 win over the New Orleans Saints.

The Bucs put together a complete game on both sides of the ball, despite allowing 20 unanswered points in the 2nd quarter. Putting 51 points on the scoreboard against a division opponent on the road and being displaced much earlier in the week due to Hurricane Milton, it was no surprise to see the upward movement on ESPN’s FPI.

Not only did the Bucs beat the Saints by 24 points, but the dominating victory caused the Saints to slide 19 spots. At the same time, the Carolina Panthers remained in position, and the Atlanta Falcons jumped up two positions after beating the Panthers in Charlotte 38-20. With the Falcons taking the first game in the series with the Bucs and currently having the same record, the Bucs sit in second place in the NFC South standings- making their Week 8 rematch in Tampa much more important.

Buccaneers: 10 (15)
Falcons: 15 (17)
Saints: 29 (10)
Panthers: 30 (30)

How ESPN’s Football Power Index is determined

The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points a team is above or below average. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections are updated daily.

Where Georgia ranks in ESPN’s latest FPI rankings

After a week full of heavyweight matchups, ESPN released their Football Power Index rankings. Where are the Georgia Bulldogs ranked?

ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index) rankings are officially out after Week 7’s spectacle. There were several matchups between teams on this list, but in the end, a familiar team remains on top.

According to ESPN, FPI is defined as “a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward.” In the FPI top 25 rankings, there are 10 teams in the SEC, including four in the top 10, showing how much competition Georgia has to deal with in the top conference in college football.

Speaking of Georgia, they stay put on the fourth spot, despite playing in a close 41-31 game against Mississippi State, a team Georgia was favored by 33.5 to beat. Several fans voiced displeasure after the win, but Georgia stays put. Let’s see if they can hold serve against Texas next week.

The biggest matchup was between two top 10 teams in this chart: Ohio State vs. Oregon. In a battle of Big Ten supremacy that “College GameDay” attended, it was close all the way through. Oregon got a late score and the Buckeyes were not able to mount a late drive to win, resulting in a 32-31 Oregon win. Despite it, this matchup had no bearings on the FPI rankings, as both teams stayed put.

The Penn State-USC game was close too, but Penn State was able to keep their undefeated season alive with a game-winning field goal in overtime. Ole Miss-LSU came down to overtime too, but on LSU’s first possession, Garrett Nussmeier fired a rocket to Kyren Lacy to clinch the 29-26 win for the LSU Tigers.

One game that wasn’t close was the Texas-Oklahoma matchup. Oklahoma may be a good team, but Texas was on another level, demolishing the Sooners 34-3 in Quinn Ewers’ return. As a result, Oklahoma dropped three spots, which is the biggest drop of the group.

Texas remains the top team in the FPI rankings ahead of the Texas-Georgia game.

ESPN’s Top 25 FPI Rankings after Week 7

.Aaron E. Martinez/Austin American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Texas (29.7 FPI)
Ohio State (26.9 FPI)
Alabama (23.7 FPI)
Georgia (22.5 FPI)
Ole Miss (21.6 FPI)
Notre Dame (20.9 FPI)
Tennessee (20.2 FPI)
Oregon (19.2 FPI)
Penn State (18.3 FPI)
Miami (17.7 FPI)
Clemson (16.8 FPI)
Texas A&M (15.6 FPI)
USC (14.8 FPI)
LSU (14.5 FPI)
Indiana (14.1 FPI)
Louisville (14.0 FPI)
Iowa State (13.2 FPI)
SMU (12.8 FPI)
Missouri (12.7 FPI)
Oklahoma (11.9 FPI)
Kansas State (11.8 FPI)
Boise State (11.6 FPI)
Iowa (11..0 FPI)
Tulane (10.1 FPI)
Arkansas (9.6 FPI)

Duke football doesn’t move in ESPN FPI rankings after Week 7 bye

ESPN didn’t move the Duke Blue Devils on the Football Power Index after their bye week.

The Duke Blue Devils didn’t play football on Saturday, so understandably, they didn’t move in ESPN’s Football Power Index either.

ESPN updated the FPI rankings on Sunday, keeping Duke in place at 63rd.

ESPN analytics thought first-year head coach [autotag]Manny Diaz[/autotag] had a 50% chance to win six games at the start of the season, but after five straight wins to start the season, FPI now gives the Blue Devils a 96.3% chance to reach a bowl game.

Georgia Tech, who handed Duke its first loss of the season last week, defeated the North Carolina Tar Heels to improve to 5-2. The Yellow Jackets rose three spots to 43rd while UNC, now riding a four-game losing streak, dropped to 68th.

The Miami Hurricanes (10th) and Clemson Tigers (11th) remain locked in a battle for the top overall spot in the conference. After Virginia’s loss to Louisville, the Blue Devils rose to 11th among ACC teams.

Duke’s upcoming opponent, the Florida State Seminoles, sits 67th in the FPI rankings after a 1-5 start to the season.

Wisconsin rockets up ESPN FPI power rankings after big win over Rutgers

Wisconsin rockets up ESPN FPI rankings after big win over Rutgers

The Wisconsin Badgers (4-2, 2-1 Big Ten) are trending in the right direction after a second consecutive dominant win, this a 42-7 road victory over Rutgers.

The team’s two recent wins over Purdue and Rutgers have been by a combined margin of 94-13. That level of dominance had not been seen during the Luke Fickell era — signaling substantial growth in his second year in charge.

One accurate barometer of the team’s current trajectory is its ESPN FPI.

Wisconsin entered the week 54th in the metric, 10 spots behind Rutgers. After the win, Wisconsin is up 26 spots, to 28th, in the nation. That rise includes a new projected final record of 6.9 — 5.1, an 86.2% chance to reach a bowl game and a rising 1.8% chance to make the College Football Playoff.

The Badgers are the seventh highest-rated team in the Big Ten behind Ohio State (No. 2), Oregon (No. 8), Penn State (No. 9), USC (No. 13), Indiana (No. 15) and Iowa (No. 23).

Wisconsin’s rest-of-season outlook has changed dramatically over the last few weeks. The remaining schedule has games against Oregon, Penn State, Nebraska and Iowa. But the Badgers are on a steep ascent and are quickly becoming a team nobody in the conference wants to face.

Fickell’s team is back on the field next Saturday at Northwestern (3-3, 1-2 Big Ten). Another strong showing would only continue what has become a potential program resurgence.

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Georgia’s FPI rankings after upset-filled Week 6

ESPN’s weekly Football Power Index rankings are out after an insane Week 6.

ESPN’s updated FPI (Football Power Index) rankings are out. Despite Georgia’s 31-13 win against Auburn, UGA’s ranking stayed the same, but there were several teams that switched rankings ahead of them. Alabama and Tennessee each suffered brutal upset losses.

According to ESPN, FPI is defined as “a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward.” In the FPI top 25 rankings, there are nine teams in the SEC, including five of the top six, showing how much competition Georgia has to deal with in the top conference in college football.

Thanks to the Vanderbilt’s upset win over Alabama, Texas is now No. 1. Alabama only heads down to the No. 3 spot behind Ohio State. Tennessee also goes down one spot to No. 6 after their upset loss to Arkansas. The biggest faller is Missouri after their 41-10 loss vs. Texas A&M, as they went down eight spots. As a result, Texas A&M is the biggest riser, heading up six spots.

ESPN’s Top 25 FPI Rankings after Week 6

Aaron E. Martinez/USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

Texas (28.1 FPI)
Ohio State (27.7 FPI)
Alabama (25.2 FPI)
Georgia (24.4 FPI)
Ole Miss (23.1 FPI)
Tennessee (21.5 FPI)
Notre Dame (18.8 FPI)
Oregon (18.5 FPI)
Penn State (18.2 FPI)
Miami (17.7 FPI)
Clemson (15.2 FPI)
Texas A&M (15.1 FPI)
USC (14.6 FPI)
Indiana (14.5 FPI)
LSU (14 FPI)
Louisville (13.9 FPI)
Oklahoma (13.2 FPI)
SMU (12.7 FPI)
Iowa State (12.1 FPI)
Boise State (11.2 FPI)
Kansas State (11.1 FPI)
Missouri (10.5 FPI)
Tulane (10.1 FPI)
Arkansas (9.9 FPI)
Kentucky (9.5 FPI)

Clemson moves up in Football Power Index after road win at Florida State

Take a look at Clemson’s updated Playoff odds after five games according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.

There were a lot of positives to be found in Clemson’s 29-13 victory over Florida State on Saturday night.

Despite an inability to finish drives that led to more points and weak blocking that resulted in two blocked kicks, Cade Klubnik had another impressive showing, and the Tigers’ defense held Florida State to under 200 yards for most of the night.

Clemson coach Dabo Swinney got his 174th career victory to make him the ACC’s all-time winningest coach.

The win over Florida State also gave Clemson a boost in many rankings and ratings systems — to say nothing of the polls, where the Tigers currently sit at No. 10 in the new AP Top 25 poll — including ESPN’s updated College Football Power Index.

After the win over the ‘Noles, Clemson rose two spots to No. 11 with an overall rating of 15.2. The Tigers edged out the Texas A&M Aggies (15.1 FPI rating) and are one spot below the Miami Hurricanes (17.7).

Clemson’s chances of reaching the College Football Playoff rose to 36.3 percent in the FPI. Their chances of winning the ACC are at 25.5 percent after their fourth straight win.

That’s a contrast to Miami’s playoff chances, which the FPI places at 75.3 percent — third-best among all FBS teams and behind only the Texas Longhorns at No. 1 and Ohio State Buckeyes at No. 2. Texas and Ohio State are each given a 91.2 percent chance of reaching the playoff compared to Clemson’s 36.3 percent.

ESPN describes its FPI this way:

“The Football Power Index is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”

Clemson heads to Winston-Salem for its annual matchup with Wake Forest this Saturday. Kickoff is at noon ET. The game will be televised on ESPN.

On Monday, the ACC announced kickoff times for Week 8 games. Clemson will host Virginia at noon ET Oct. 19 on ACC Network.

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Where do the Duke Blue Devils stand in the ESPN FPI rankings after Week 6?

The Blue Devils dropped in the ESPN Football Power Index after their first loss of the season, but how far did they fall?

The Duke Blue Devils gave up two fourth-quarter touchdowns to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets on Saturday, falling short 24-14 and failing to clinch a perfect 6-0 start.

The ESPN Football Power Index didn’t punish first-year head coach [autotag]Manny Diaz[/autotag] and his team much for the loss, however. The popular formula dropped the Blue Devils down four spots to 63rd in the country after Week 6.

The loss did boot Duke out of the top 10 teams in the ACC, however. Syracuse and Virginia jumped over the Blue Devils after the Orange beat a ranked UNLV team and the Cavaliers took down Boston College.

If there’s a silver lining, however, the North Carolina Tar Heels dropped down to 65th after their third straight loss, a 34-24 defeat at the hands of Pittsburgh.

ESPN Analytics still isn’t worried about Duke’s chances to make the postseason, however. As of Monday, FPI gives Diaz a 96% chance to win a sixth game at some point this season, and Duke’s expected win total now sits at 7.5.

The Blue Devils get a bye week before hosting the Florida State Seminoles on Friday, October 18.

Wisconsin rises in ESPN FPI after big win over Purdue

The Wisconsin Badgers are trending positively after their dominant 52-6 win over Purdue on Saturday.

The win snapped the team’s two-game losing streak, improved it to 3-2 on the season and 1-1 in Big Ten play and, importantly, gave a glimpse at its ceiling. Wisconsin had not put together a complete, four-quarter performance to date. The win over the Boilermakers did have minor moments of struggle, but it’s the closest the Badgers have come to a complete showing.

Dominant wins lead to ratings improvements. That is seen in ESPN FPI, which lifted the Badgers eight spots to No. 54 in the nation.

Big Ten teams ranked below the Badgers are now Purdue (No. 114), Northwestern (No. 87), UCLA (No. 74) and Michigan State (No. 66). The Badgers narrowly trail Minnesota (No. 51), Illinois (No. 47) and Rutgers (No. 44).

Wisconsin gets to test its progress next Saturday with a road trip to Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are off a narrow 14-7 loss to Nebraska but still sit 4-1 on the season. A decisive victory could see Wisconsin begin to rise back to the mid-30s ranking it held to begin the season.

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Duke football within the top 25 of ESPN’s Strength of Record calculations after Week 5

Duke didn’t make the top 25 of the US LBM Coaches Poll, likely due to strength of schedule questions, but the math supports the Blue Devils.

When the Duke Blue Devils didn’t appear among the top 25 teams in this week’s US LBM Coaches Poll, the easiest explanation was the team’s strength of schedule.

Through the first five games of the season, first-year head coach [autotag]Manny Diaz[/autotag] and his team have played opponents like Elon, Connecticut, and Middle Tennessee. Even the Northwestern Wildcats, their non-conference Power Four opponent, have a 2-2 record through four games.

However, according to ESPN’s Strength of Record calculations, undefeated is still undefeated. The metric measures how impressive a team’s resume looks given the expected number of wins for an average team, and the Blue Devils sit 18th in the statistic through five weeks.

The four teams directly below the Blue Devils, in order, include the Missouri Tigers, LSU Tigers, Ohio State Buckeyes, and Notre Dame Fighting Irish. All four of those teams sit within the top 13 in the coaches poll.

With six expected wins before the season, expectations remained mild for the first year of the Diaz era. Voters looking to keep that pessimism can build a case around the Blue Devils giving up a 17-point lead against the Huskies and falling behind 20-0 against the North Carolina Tar Heels.

Viewing the team through that lens undersells how impressive Duke has been in the fourth quarter, not allowing a touchdown over the final 15 minutes all season as the Blue Devils refuse to lose close games. Diaz said the votes don’t bother him in a Yahoo Sports story on Wednesday, but his team has another chance to make their case against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets this Saturday.