The Tigers have a better chance at a deep run than most No. 6 seeds.
The Tigers head to Milwaukee this weekend for the first leg of what will hopefully be a three-week journey in March Madness.
As the No. 6-seed in the Midwest Region, LSU draws a matchup with No. 11-seeded Iowa State out of the Big 12 in the first round. However, this is not a team playing its best basketball right now.
It went 3-4 in its final seven games of the season and was bounced in the quarterfinals at the SEC Tournament by Arkansas last week. To make matters worse, the Tigers are being led into March by an interim coach in Kevin Nickelberry, who took over on Saturday after the program fired coach Will Wade.
In spite of all of that, LSU odds of advancing deep in the tournament are actually fairly solid, according to the latest probabilities from ESPN’s Basketball Power Index. Here’s how it breaks down.
Basketball Power Index Probability
| Round |
2nd Round |
Sweet 16 |
Elite Eight |
Final Four |
Champ Game |
Champs |
| Probability |
71.8% |
49.3% |
24.2% |
10.5% |
3.8% |
1.3% |
| Ranking |
No. 19 |
No. 16 |
No. 15 |
No. 15 |
No. 15 |
No. 15 |
As you can see, LSU’s worst relative odds are actually in Round 1 against the Cyclones. It’s a tough opening draw, certainly more difficult than that of many other top seeds.
If the Tigers can get past that one, though, the relative odds get significantly better, with the team ranking among the 15 programs most likely to advance to the second weekend and beyond.
The likely path for LSU if things played out in a chalky manner would feature matchup against No. 3-seeded Wisconsin in the second round, No. 2-seeded Auburn in the Sweet 16 and No. 1-seeded Kansas in the Elite Eight.
Per these odds, the Tigers are a fairly heavy favorite in the opener and are given about a coin-flip to beat the Badgers and advance to the second weekend for the second time in the last three tournaments. 2019’s Sweet 16 run was the first time the team had made it out of the first weekend since a Final Four run in 2006.
The Tigers will look to get past a scrappy Iowa State team on Friday and make a run.
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