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Josh Emmett and Shane Burgos lock horns in a featherweight bout on the main card at UFC on ESPN 11 – also known as UFC Fight Night 173 – Saturday at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. The prelims kick off at 5 p.m. ET, followed by the main card set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+.
Emmett (15-2) heads into the octagon with a sparkling record, looking to add to his win column. However, he has a five-inch disadvantage both in height and reach against Burgos (13-1).
Emmett enters fifth in the featherweight division with the shortest average fight time at 8:57, and ranks second among active featherweights with eight knockdowns landed. Each of his past four bouts have ended via KO/TKO, winning three of those battles. Like Emmett, Burgos has seen each of his past four fights finish inside the distance, winning three of four, including a pair of submission wins and a KO/TKO of Makwan Amirkhani at UFC 244 last time out on Nov. 2, 2019.
Burgos is tied for fourth among all active featherweights with six knockdowns landed, and is fourth in the class with a 1.07 knockdown average per 15 minutes. He is also an effective puncher, posting 597 significant strikes landed, ninth among featherweights, and is fifth in the class with a 50.3 significant strike-accuracy percentage. That equates to an amazing 7.09 significant strikes landed per minute, tops among active featherweights, ahead of the likes of Max Holloway (6.49) and Conor McGregor (5.53) to name a few, while posting a 1.75 striking differential. While that’s all well and good, Burgos is tremendous defensively, sitting at the top of the division with a 72.0 significant strike-defense percentage, while absorbing just 2.63 strikes per minute.
Neither fighter is particularly strong in the takedown game, but Burgos is second in the class with a 90.9 takedown-defense percentage.
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Josh Emmett vs. Shane Burgos betting odds
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday, June 19 at 4:30 a.m. ET.
Burgos (-143) is a slight favorite over Emmett (+120) on the 2-way line, but frankly, this one could go either way. The best bet, based upon each fighter’s recent history, is playing NO (-200): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? Both fighters have finished inside the distance in each of their past four outings. If I had to pick a winner, I’d take BURGOS BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION (+160) on the 5-way method of victory line, but only on a very small-unit play.
New to sports betting? A $10 bet on Burgos (-143) to win outright on the 2-way line returns $6.99 in profit. A $10 play on Burgos (+160) to win by KO/TKO, DQ or Submission on the 5-way line fetches a profit of $16. A $10 wager on No (-200): Will the fight go the distance? nets a profit of $5.
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