In a flyweight bout on the main card, Tim Elliott meets Matheus Nicolau Saturday at UFC Fight Night 194 – also known as UFC Vegas 39 – at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. Below, we analyze the UFC Fight Night 194 Elliott vs. Nicolau odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The card can be viewed on ESPN+ with the prelims at 2 p.m. ET and the main card at 4 p.m. ET.
The southpaw Elliott has bounced back from a three-bout losing skid with back-to-back unanimous-decision victories over Jordan Espinosa and Ryan Benoit. His losses were against Deiveson Figueiredo, Askar Askarov and Brandon Royval, and those are nothing to be ashamed about.
Nicolau is working on a three-bout win streak, including a split-decision win over Manel Kape his last time out in March. It’s been over three calendar years since his last setback, a first-round KO/TKO against Dustin Ortiz in July 2018.
UFC Fight Night 194 Elliott vs. Nicolau: Odds and lines
Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:57 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Elliott +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Nicolau -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -270 | Under +185)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -220 | No +155)
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UFC Fight Night 194 Elliott vs. Nicolau: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Records: Elliott (18-11-1) | Nicolau (16-3-1)
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
Nicolau (-200) is a little on the expensive side for me, but I think he is going to win. Get specific and take NICOLAU BY SUBMISSION (+480) for a strong value.
Nicolau has a pair of victories via submission in his last seven fights and is 5-0 via submission in 20 career professional fights.
On the flip side, Elliott has lost three of his past seven fights in the UFC via submission, including against Royval in May 2020.
Over/Under (O/U)
NO (+155): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a solid value at this price point, especially since I like Nicolau to tap out Elliott.
UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (+185) is also worth a small-unit play for a chance to nearly double up.
While I normally do a two-round block, I like NICOLAU TO WIN IN ROUND 2 (+1000) for a small-unit play as a standalone bet on the exact round.
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