East Carolina Pirates betting odds line spread pick predictions best bets

East Carolina at SMU odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s East Carolina at SMU odds and lines, with college basketball expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The East Carolina Pirates (14-15, 7-9 American) and SMU Mustangs (19-10, 10-6) meet Wednesday at Moody Coliseum in Dallas. Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the East Carolina vs. SMU odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.

The Pirates slipped under .500 with losses in each of the past 3 games, and East Carolina has failed to cover each of those outings, too. The Pirates are just 3-5 straight up (SU) in the past 8 games, while going just 5-8 against the spread (ATS) in the previous 13 contests.

The Under has cashed in 4 of the past 5 games for the Pirates, and the total has gone low in an amazing 18 of the past 22 outings.

East Carolina suffered a 75-64 loss against SMU in the 1st meeting at Minges Coliseum in Greenville on Jan. 3, as the Mustangs covered as a 4-point favorite with the Over (136.5) coming through.

SMU is in a little bit of a nosedive, too. The Mustangs went to FAU on Feb. 22 looking for its 20th win, and it remains stuck on 19 victories. SMU has lost and failed to cover the past 3 outings, while going just 3-8 ATS in the past 11 games. The Under has cashed in 3 in a row for the Mustangs.

– Rankings: USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll

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East Carolina at SMU odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:35 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): East Carolina +590 (bet $100 to win $590) | SMU -900 (bet $900 to win $100)
Against the spread: East Carolina +12.5 (-110) | SMU -12.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 141.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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East Carolina at SMU picks and predictions

Prediction

SMU 73, East Carolina 64

Moneyline

SMU (-900) will cost you nearly 10 times your potential return, and that’s way too much risk for a team coming in on a 3-game skid.

However, East Carolina (+590) also cannot be trusted for a potential upset bid, as the Pirates are sliding, too, and ECU suffered the 11-point loss at home to SMU in their 1st meeting.

PASS.

Against the spread

EAST CAROLINA +12.5 (-110) is a strong play catching double digits.

East Carolina has struggled lately, but it is 2-0 ATS this season as a double-digit underdog. It is 4-4 ATS in 8 road games inside the AAC this season, too.

For SMU -12.5 (-110), it has failed to cover the past 3 outings, and as a double-digit favorite the Mustangs lost outright as a 17-point favorite to UTSA last time out. SMU is 3-3-1 ATS in the past 7 games when favored by 10 or more points.

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Over/Under

UNDER 141.5 (-112) is a solid play, as both of these teams have been going low lately.

While the Over hit in the Jan. 3 meeting, a lot has changed since then. The Under is on a 3-0 run for SMU, with the offense averaging just 70.3 PPG, nearly 7 points under the team’s season average of 77.0 PPG.

For East Carolina, it has cashed the Under in 4 of the past 5 games, going for 58 or fewer points in 2 of the past 3 contests. The Pirates have been brutal on offense, going for just 68.8 PPG this season, while hitting 41.8% from the field, and 30.6% from behind the 3-point line. They’re also a poor free-throw shooting team at 69.1%, leaving a lot of points on the floor.

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East Carolina at North Texas odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s East Carolina at North Texas odds and lines, with college basketball expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The North Texas Mean Green (15-12, 8-7 AAC) welcome the East Carolina Pirates (14-14, 7-8) to The Super Pit Sunday. Tip-off is set for 3 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the East Carolina vs. North Texas odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.

North Texas beat East Carolina on the road 60-59 on Jan. 17, covering as a 3-point road underdog.

The Pirates are coming off an 82-58 loss to the Memphis Tigers Thursday, failing to cover as a 4.5-point underdog. They have lost 2 straight after a 3-game winning streak. East Carolina is 12-14-1 against the spread (ATS) and just 3-5 ATS in its last 8 games.

North Texas beat the Tulane Green Wave 80-76 on Wednesday, covering as a 2-point road favorite while having 5 players score in double figures. It is 3-6 over its last 9, yet 5-4 ATS in that span. The Mean Green are 15-9 ATS on the season.

– Rankings courtesy of the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.

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East Carolina at North Texas odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:26 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): East Carolina +315 (bet $100 to win $315) | North Texas -410 (bet $410 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): East Carolina +8.5 (-110) | North Texas -8.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 123.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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East Carolina at North Texas picks and predictions

Prediction

North Texas 63, East Carolina 58

Moneyline

PASS.

There’s no reason to take a -410 favorite here, and East Carolina has lost its last 2 by 18 points or more, making its lofty moneyline value not an ideal wager either.

Against the spread

BET EAST CAROLINA +8.5 (-110).

The Mean Green haven’t been mean at home. They lost to UTSA in their last home game by 2 points, closing as a 14-point favorite. They have lost 3 of their last 4 at home and have failed to cover in each loss. North Texas’ top 4 scoring options all shoot under 43% from the field, so the efficiency offensively isn’t there either.

East Carolina isn’t much better, but it has covered 3 of its last 5 and beat UTSA on the road by 11 earlier this season. It is 2-2 ATS in its last 4 on the road. Considering those trends, back EAST CAROLINA +8.5 (-110).

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Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 123.5 (-105).

Neither team is overly efficient on the offensive end. The Pirates have gone Under in 4 straight games, scoring Under 60 points in 2 straight. They have gone Under in 10 of their last 11 and are 8-19 O/U on the season.

North Texas is 12-12 O/U and has scored 62 or fewer in 2 of its last 3. It doesn’t have many efficiency scorers either. With that in mind, back UNDER 123.5 (-105).

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SMU at East Carolina odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s SMU at East Carolina odds and lines, with college football expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The SMU Mustangs (3-2, 1-0 AAC) face the East Carolina Pirates (1-4, 0-1) Thursday. Kickoff from Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium is set for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the SMU vs. East Carolina odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.

SMU enters as a 12.5-point favorite with both American Athletic Conference teams having byes last week. Mustangs’ QB Preston Stone has completed 58.8% of his passes (94 of 160) for 1191 yards, 11 TDs, and 5 INTs while RB Jaylan Knighton has run for 332 yards and 2 TDs on 51 carries.

East Carolina has had a rough start to its season and a big reason for that is their struggles at the quarterback position. QB Alex Flinn has completed just 49.1% of his passes (55 of 112) for 611 yards, 1 TD, and 5 INTs. Most of the Pirates’ TDs have come on the ground (8).

Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports

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SMU at East Carolina odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 12:13 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): SMU -450 (bet $450 to win $100) | East Carolina +333 (bet $100 to win $333)
Against the spread (ATS): SMU -12.5 (-110) | East Carolina +12.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 49.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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SMU at East Carolina picks and predictions

Prediction

SMU 32, East Carolina 14

Moneyline

PASS.

SMU should pick up the win here, but a -450 favorite is never worth betting on. Bet on the spread and/or total instead.

Against the spread

BET SMU -12.5 (-110).

SMU is a much better team and I expect an offense that averages 433.8 yards per game to shred this Pirates defense. SMU does have a defense that allows 315.6 yards per game, but this East Carolina offense is not good enough to exploit that weakness. Look for Flinn to turn the ball over and have trouble completing any meaningful passes, making it easy for the Mustangs to cover.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 49.5 (-110).

Only 1 of SMU’s 5 games and only 1 of East Carolina’s 5 games this season has hit the Over number. East Carolina has a horrible defense that allows more yards per game (331.6) than the offense produces (304.2) and that will make scoring for SMU easy. However, I don’t expect the Pirates’ offense to be able to score enough to push this game to hit the Over.

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East Carolina at Michigan odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s East Carolina at Michigan odds and lines, with college football expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The No. 2 Michigan Wolverines welcome East Carolina Pirates to Michigan Stadium Saturday. Kickoff for the Week 1 game is noon ET (Peacock). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the East Carolina vs. Michigan odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.

The Wolverines come into the season with ultra-high expectations. Jim Harbaugh has a championship-or-bust season on the docket as both his starting quarterback (J.J. McCarthy) and running back (Blake Corum) will return to the team. He has two transfer starting offensive linemen as well. Michigan is No. 2 in the USA TODAY Sports US LBM Coaches Poll.

The Pirates won’t have the same experience, but they will have a few high-caliber playmakers on their roster, including 6-foot-5 QB Mason Garcia, who has played in 12 games in his 3 years with the program. Starting RB Rahjai Harris gained 1,208 yards in his 1st 2 season with 8 TDs, but played in just 5 games last year. The Pirates’ top weapons have experience in the program which should be helpful against a powerhouse like Michigan.

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East Carolina at Michigan odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 3:28 p.m. ET,

Moneyline (ML): East Carolina +2000 (bet $100 to win $2,000) | Michigan -10000 (bet $10,000 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): East Carolina +36.5 (-110) | Michigan -36.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 51.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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East Carolina at Michigan picks and predictions

Prediction

Michigan 38, East Carolina 6

Moneyline

PASS.

There’s just no value here for either side. Michigan is a top-3 team in the nation and has the experience and coaching to make it to the College Football Playoffs this season. They should dominate this game, but at (-10000), they just aren’t worth even considering in a parlay.

Against the spread

LEAN EAST CAROLINA +36.5 (-110).

Simply put, when this game gets out of hand and it is in the 2nd half, Michigan may not keep the gas on.

East Carolina isn’t a great team, but it is in the American Conference and should have ample size in the trenches to get some traction offensively. Its main weapon will be its running back which should help kill the clock and keep the game within several scores as well.

East Carolina represents a team more like who the Wolverines played to kick off the 2021 season, beating Western Michigan by 33 and Washington by 21. The Pirates are better than Colorado State and Hawaii, who Michigan beat by 44 and 46 to kick off last season.

Expect a battle within 37 points and lean EAST CAROLINA +36.5 (-110).

Over/Under

BET UNDER 51.5 (-105).

The Michigan defense was among the best in the nation last season. The Wolverines allowed 292.1 yards per game, which ranked 5th in the entire FBS. Their defense should again dominate, and they will likely hold East Carolina to single-digit points.

With a championship in mind this season, risking McCarthy and Corum late in a blowout doesn’t make much sense, so Michigan should take the foot off the gas in the second half. Both teams have strong running games and should waste some clock by keeping the ball on the ground.

Put it all together and take UNDER 51.5 (-105).

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AAC Tournament: East Carolina vs. Houston odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s East Carolina vs. Houston odds and lines, with college basketball expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The 9th-seeded East Carolina Pirates (16-16) take on the No. 1 Houston Cougars (29-2) in the quarterfinals of the American Athletic Conference Tournament Friday. The contest at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth will tip off at 1 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the East Carolina vs. Houston odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.

East Carolina defeated South Florida 73-58 Thursday in the first round. To advance in these conference brackets, ECU will not only need to topple the top seed but will need to do something it only did once in the final 18 games of the regular season: win back-to-back games.

Houston — the top-ranked team in the nation — defeated the Pirates 76-57 Feb. 25. The Cougars have done nothing but win successive games since losing Jan. 22. UH enters on an 11-game win streak with a 15.5-point average margin of victory.

Rankings courtesy of the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.

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East Carolina vs. Houston odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:11 a.m. ET.

Moneyline: East Carolina +1300 (bet $100 to win $1,300) | Houston -4500 (bet $4,500 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): East Carolina +22.5 (-105) | Houston -22.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 133.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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East Carolina at Houston picks and predictions

Prediction

Houston 79, East Carolina 55

Moneyline

No interest here. PASS.

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Against the spread

Houston failed to cover a 20.5-point spread when these programs met Feb. 25. However, the Cougars did not shoot the ball all that well in that game (48.5% eFG), nor did they get to the foul line much. Still, UH led by more-than-21 points multiple times in the final minutes.

This Cougars team picks apart bad defenses, and from an efficiency standpoint, ECU is a bottom-3-in-the-AAC squad.

BACK HOUSTON -22.5 (-115).

Over/Under

Varying game speeds and wildly fluctuating efficiency levels competing here. No lean either way: PASS.

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Cincinnati at East Carolina odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Cincinnati at East Carolina odds and lines, with college basketball expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Cincinnati Bearcats (17-9, 8-5 AAC) and East Carolina Pirates (12-12, 3-8) meet Wednesday at Williams Arena at Minges Coliseum in Greenville, N.C. Tip-off is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Cincinnati vs. East Carolina game odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.

Rankings courtesy of the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.

The Bearcats topped USF on Saturday 84-65 as a 9.5-point favorite as the Over cashed Saturday. Cincinnati has struggled on the road, however, going just 3-4 SU this season, and 4-6 SU if you include neutral-floor games.

The Pirates nipped SMU at home by a 77-72 count as a 2-point underdog, just 1 of 2 wins in the last 9 games while going 2-5 ATS in the last 7 contests.

Cincinnati routed East Carolina 83-55 on Jan. 11 as a 10-point home favorite as the Under cashed.

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Cincinnati at East Carolina odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:08 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Cincinnati -500 (bet $500 to win $100) | East Carolina +305 (bet $100 to win $350)
Against the spread (ATS): Cincinnati -9.5 (-110) | East Carolina +9.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 141.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Cincinnati at East Carolina picks and predictions

Prediction

Cincinnati 74, East Carolina 68

Moneyline

PASS. Simply, Cincinnati is way too expensive.

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Against the spread

EAST CAROLINA +9.5 (-110) should be able to keep it within single digits against Cincinnati, a team which has been just so-so on the road this season.

The Bearcats are just 4-10-1 ATS in the last 15 road games against teams with a winning home mark. On the flip side, the Pirates are 11-5 ATS in the last 16 home games, while going 7-3 ATS in the last 10 against teams with a winning overall mark.

Over/Under

OVER 141.5 (-105) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at best.

The Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 games for the Bearcats. The Over is 4-0 in the last 4 games at Minges for the Pirates, while going 4-1 in the previous 5 home outings against teams with a losing road record.

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East Carolina at Cincinnati odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s East Carolina at Cincinnati odds and lines, with college basketball expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The East Carolina Pirates (10-7, 1-3 American) and Cincinnati Bearcats (11-6, 2-2) tussle Wednesday. The contest at Fifth Third Arena will tip off at 9 p.m. ET (ESPNU). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the East Carolina vs. Cincinnati odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.

East Carolina has won 3 straight against the spread (ATS) and is 12-5 ATS for the season. The Pirates are 0-5 straight up but 3-2 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Bearcats.

Cincinnati was a 9.5-point underdog in its last game, Sunday vs. No. 1 Houston, but failed to cover in a 72-59 loss. The 59 points marked the fewest for the up-tempo Bearcats since Nov. 22. Cincinnati is 9-2 at home this season and is 8-1 ATS on home hardwood since Nov. 13.

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East Carolina at Cincinnati odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1 p.m. ET.

Moneyline: East Carolina +390 (bet $100 to win $390) | Cincinnati -575 (bet $575 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): East Carolina +9.5 (+100) | Cincinnati -9.5 (-120)
Over/Under (O/U): 140.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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East Carolina at Cincinnati picks and predictions

Prediction

Cincinnati 76, East Carolina 64

Moneyline

The moneyline on Cincinnati (-575) is too steep to make it a good wager.

PASS.

Against the spread

East Carolina beat Quad 2 Wichita State on the road (79-69, Dec. 31), but that performance stands out as an analytics outlier. Shooting, turnovers and offensive rebounds were lined up in a way that ECU just doesn’t pull off normally. Overall, the Pirates are 1-3 on the road.

The Bearcats are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games against teams with a losing road record and are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.

Cincinnati is solid at both ends of the floor. UC has played teams leaning toward better offensive performances, and the Bearcats have been trending toward better defensive play of late.

TAKE CINCINNATI -9.5 (-120).

Over/Under

Mixed signals here, with an above-average pace, a strong UC defense and few spiral factors in play. PASS.

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East Carolina at Cincinnati odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s East Carolina at Cincinnati odds and lines, with college football expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The East Carolina Pirates (6-3, 3-2 AAC) meet the Cincinnati Bearcats (7-2, 4-1) Friday at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati. Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the East Carolina vs. Cincinnati odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.

The Pirates locked up bowl eligibility Oct. 28 with a 27-24 win at BYU as 3-point underdogs as the Under connected. It was East Carolina’s 3rd consecutive win, and the Pirates have improved to 6-3 ATS in 9 games overall.

The Bearcats racked up a 20-10 win against Navy Saturday, although it failed to cover for the 4th consecutive outing. Cincinnati is just 2-6-1 ATS in 9 games overall this season, and it is 1-2 ATS in 3 games at home vs. FBS opponents. The Under has cashed in 5 in a row for Cincinnati, too.

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East Carolina at Cincinnati odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 7:44 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): East Carolina +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Cincinnati -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
Against the spread: East Carolina +4 (-110) | Cincinnati -4 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 52 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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East Carolina at Cincinnati picks and predictions

Prediction

Cincinnati 31, East Carolina 24

Moneyline

Cincinnati (-200) will cost you 2 times your potential return, and that’s just too expensive against a 6-win East Carolina team playing with a lot of confidence. The Pirates just went on the road and topped BYU, and they look to carry over the momentum here. This will be a one-score game.

PASS.

Against the spread

Go lightly on CINCINNATI -4 (-110), mostly because it is at home.

The Bearcats have won and covered 2 of 3 games against FBS foes at Nippert Stadium. In addition, Cincinnati is an impressive 6-0 ATS in the past 6 meetings at home against ECU and is 9-3 ATS in the past 12 meetings overall. The home team is also 5-1 ATS in the past 6 meetings, too.

In addition, the Pirates are strong in the pass game, but that’s the strength of the Bearcats defense. Toss in the fact the forecast calls for 11-16 mph winds, and that will hinder the ECU pass game, too.

Over/Under

OVER 52 (-110) is the lean here, but it’s only worth a half-unit play.

The Over has cashed in 11 of the past 16 games against winning teams for East Carolina while hitting in 10 of its previous 13 appearances on a Friday.

The Over is also 4-1 in the past 5 meetings in this series. This won’t be a shootout, but it will find a way to get across the finish line.

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East Carolina at BYU odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s East Carolina at BYU odds and lines, with college football expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The East Carolina Pirates (5-3) visit the Brigham Young University Cougars (4-4) at LaVell Edwards Stadium Friday. Kickoff is at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the East Carolina vs. BYU odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.

East Carolina has won 2 straight games and 3 of its last 4. The Pirates are coming off a 34-13 win as 5.5-point underdogs over Central Florida Saturday. QB Holton Ahlers has 18 touchdown passes to only 5 interceptions.

BYU started the season 4-1 but has lost 3 games in a row. The Cougars got out to a 14-3 lead at Liberty Saturday only to lose 41-14, failing to cover as a 7-point favorite.

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East Carolina at BYU odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:33 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): East Carolina +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | BYU -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): East Carolina +3.5 (-120) | BYU -3.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 63.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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East Carolina at BYU picks and predictions

Prediction

East Carolina 34, BYU 30

Moneyline

BYU was held to only 14 points last week but has averaged 30.1 points per game all season. The problem has not been scoring points, but rather the defensive side of the ball. The Cougars have allowed 40.5 points per game in their 4 losses.

East Carolina averages 33.3 points per game. They have averaged 43.4 points per game in their 5 wins.

Unless BYU’s defense gets better in a hurry or can create some takeaways, expect the Pirates to leave Utah with a win.

Take EAST CAROLINA (+140).

Against the spread

BYU has not covered the spread since their second game of the season, a 26-20 win over Baylor as a 3.5-point underdog. The Cougars are 2-4 ATS when favored and 1-3 ATS at home.

East Carolina is 5-3 ATS on the season overall and 2-1 ATS as an underdog.

If you like the Pirates to win the game outright, then your better play is to PASS on the spread and stick with the moneyline because you get a much better payout.

Over/Under

Five of BYU’s 8 games have hit the Over this season while 4 of East Carolina’s have.

The two teams’ season average for scoring combines to be 63.3 points per game.

Only 1 of BYU’s losses has had more than 63 points. Two of East Carolina’s wins have had more than 63.

However, BYU’s opponents have scored 28 or more in 3 straight games.

It will be close but I LEAN OVER 63.5 (-112).

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AAC Tournament: East Carolina vs. Cincinnati odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s East Carolina vs. Cincinnati odds and lines, with college basketball expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 9 seed East Carolina Pirates (15-14) will face the eighth-seeded Cincinnati Bearcats (17-14) in the American Athletic Conference first round at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth. Tip is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the East Carolina vs. Cincinnati odds and lines, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.

The Bearcats have several bad conference losses this season. They lost to Tulsa and South Florida, the bottom two teams in the AAC. However, they oddly also have wins that showcase their upset potential. They beat then-No. 15 Illinois in November and routed AAC regular-season runner-up SMU by 17 in early January.

Cincinnati beat ECU by 8 at home and by 1 on the road this season but was 0-2 against the spread (ATS) in those games.

East Carolina finished 6-11 in conference play, just behind Cincinnati (7-11). The Pirates are 16-13 ATS but just 2-7 straight up (SU) on the road and 1-3 (SU) in neutral settings.

ECU lost to Davidson and Oklahoma earlier in the season and was destroyed by Houston 79-36. ECU is led by 6-foot-5 G Tristen Newton, who is averaging 17.4 points and 5.0 assists per game.

See also: Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports

East Carolina vs. Cincinnati odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 10:53 p.m. ET.

Money line: East Carolina +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Cincinnati -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
Against the spread: East Carolina +4.5 (-102) | Cincinnati -4.5 (-122)
Over/Under (O/U): 136.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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East Carolina vs. Cincinnati odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Cincinnati 68, East Carolina 65

Money line

PASS.

I like Cincinnati to win, having taken down ECU in both regular-season matchups, but at -230, I’d rather look to the points for value in this AAC battle.

Against the spread

LEAN to EAST CAROLINA +4.5 (-102).

Cincinnati was a conference-worst 6-11-1 ATS in AAC games. On the season, it was just 10-17-3 ATS.

Both times against East Carolina, Cincinnati failed to cover. The Pirates are also coming in with more confidence, having covered 4 of their last 5 outings overall. Cincinnati is just 1-4 ATS entering this matchup.

Six-foot-9 F Vance Jackson, an Arkansas transfer for ECU, averaged 30.0 points and 9.5 rebounds in the two games against UC. Jackson and Newton seem to have the greater offensive upside.

I’d prefer to side with the team with more scoring options as Cincinnati’s team strengths are in its defense and depth. Having the more talented scorers should help ECU keep it close and cover yet again.

Over/Under

LEAN to the UNDER 136.5 (-112).

Both teams are strong defensively. Cincinnati ranks 25th in opponents’ field-goal percentage. ECU has held its opponents to 43.3% from the field this season as well.

In the season matchups, the Bearcats won 79-71 and 60-59. In the first matchup, Cincinnati shot 47% from the field and ECU shot 45% from deep.

Assuming there could be some nervous jitters as well, I’d expect this matchup to be more similar to the second meeting given both teams’ defensive strength.

Cincinnati was 14-16 O/U this season. ECU was 15-14 O/U.

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