Tag: easiest schedule strength

2024 Schedule Swings: Receivers

Which receiver gets a far easier schedule for 2024? Who experiences the worst drop in schedule strength?

The schedule strength for receivers is typically the least accurate compared to running backs and quarterbacks because two to four wideouts and a tight end are regularly used per team, and each varies in how they mix them.

That means comparing the schedule strength between 2023 and 2024 is also harder to apply to individual players. Only the extremes are likely to matter.

The average fantasy points allowed by defenses to receivers last year were applied to each offense’s schedule to determine their true schedule strength of last year and the same values are applied to their 2024 schedule. This includes considering both home and away venues separately for each defense.

The resulting fantasy point advantages are compared between years and the difference is their “swing points.”  The higher the Swing Points, the better their schedule is compared to last year. 

This analysis is very close to that for the quarterbacks, but a few differences stem from relying on running backs as receivers on some teams, as that skews the pass distribution.

See Also: Quarterbacks | Running Backs 

Best schedule swings

Drake London, Kyle Pitts (ATL) – This is all good news for a franchise that was among the worst in passing for the last couple of seasons. Refreshing with Kirk Cousins, a new pass-intensive scheme and now the most improved schedule from 2023 and it all is looking up for the Falcons.

Diontae Johnson, Adam Thielen (CAR) – Bryce Young was the first player drafted in 2023, but he had little help in any direction for a franchise that owned a minimal amount of passing weapons, a one-year offensive scheme that flopped and a bad schedule. A new set of coaches, upgrades with Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette, and a vastly upgraded schedule should all make a positive difference and get the Panthers’ passing offense on track.

DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze (CHI) – The Bears already have an embarrassment of riches with receivers DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet. They drafted the top quarterback in the 2024 class and get a nice improvement in schedule. The only downside here is trying to feed all those options.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta (DET) – The Lions already had one of the best passing offenses and now enjoy a solid rise in outlook with the No. 3 best schedule for receivers. With the offense already dedicated to piling up the receptions for St. Brown and LaPorta, the schedule only serves to make them even more reliable.

Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku (CLE) – The Browns offense needed a break and 2024 should allow the receivers to meet their potential with Deshaun Watson healthy and well-versed in the offense and the schedule finally well above average.

Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride (ARI) – The rookie Harrison and McBride already look like locks for a high volume of targets and they get a healthy Kyler Murray back. Throw in one of the top schedules after only average in 2023, and the needle is pointing up for the Arizona receivers this year.

About the same schedule strength

The bad news is that the Jaguars, Bengals, Dolphins, and Broncos all repeat their ultra-tough schedule strengths from 2023. Can they remain better than their schedule?

Worst schedule swings

Malik Nabers, Wan’Dale Robinson (NYG) – The Giants were already challenged with yet another shaky year of Daniel Jones and now the schedule is working against them. It is enough to drop Nabers another tick and hope he can survive a tough rookie campaign.

Quentin Johnson, Joshua Palmer (LAC) – The Chargers already swapped out coaches and dedicate their offense to running the ball more. And they stripped out all veteran talent from the wideouts. And they rely on what appears to be one of the weakest receiver units in the NFL. And now their receivers get to go against the worst schedule. Justin Herbert is an elite quarterback, but everything with the 2023 Chargers screams that a down year is about to happen.

Marquise Brown, Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce (KC) – This is less worrisome with an upgraded set of receivers and Patrick Mahomes playing in the same pass-happy scheme. If any team can weather a bad schedule swing, it is the Chiefs.

Mike Evans, Chris Godwin (TB) – The Buccaneers take a dive down from their previous No. 5 schedule strength for receivers but their scheme has a huge portion of the targets funnel through Evans and Godwin. They may not equal last year, but shouldn’t fall far thanks to volume alone.

Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp (LAR) – Nacua blew up with a historic rookie season and Kupp is always dangerous weapon when healthy.  This slide doesn’t help but the duo is one of the best in the league. They should still deliver even with the increased competition.

2024 Schedule Swings: Running Backs

Which RB gets an easier schedule for 2024? Who experiences the worst drop in schedule strength?

The schedule strength for running backs is always the more accurate among fantasy positions, thanks to their volume of work and the tendency of teams to feature the run and rely more consistently on individual players. That makes this analysis the most reliable.

The average fantasy points allowed by defenses to running backs last year were applied to each offense’s schedule to determine their true schedule strength of last year, and applied the same values to their 2023 schedule. This includes considering both home and away venues separately for each defense.

See Also: Quarterbacks | Receivers

The resulting fantasy point advantages are compared between years and the difference is their “swing points.”  The higher the Swing Points, the better their schedule is compared to last year. This analysis is more telling than standard schedule strength. You know what happened last year with players – do they get an easier or tougher schedule for 2024?

Best schedule swings

 Kenneth Walker/Zach Charbonnet (SEA) – After two seasons as the No. 20 fantasy running back, Walker gets a chance to take advantage of the most dramatic swing for the position. His schedule strength rockets up from No. 30 to No. 2 and that should be apparent so long as Charbonnet doesn’t take a hefty chunk away from him.

Aaron Jones (MIN) – The offensive line won’t be an advantage unlike back in Green Bay, but Jones’ first season with the Vikings with a boost from the No. 29 up to the No. 9 schedule. He wasn’t there last year, but he suffered through the worst schedule in 2023 while with the Packers. The schedule should help get him back on track.

Breece Hall (NYJ) – Hall already exploded last year when the Jets kicked off the training wheels and let Hall become the workhorse back. He’ll enjoy a lighter schedule this time around and maybe even a passing offense that can take the pressure of him.

Javonte Williams (DEN) – After a tough 2023 when he was still recovering from his torn ACL, Williams has a nice upgrade to his schedule but he seems to have lost a bit from his injury and the Broncos added Audric Estime. This isn’t as safe of an advantage as it might seem.

Rachaad White (TB) – With the Buccaneers getting a rougher passing schedule, White may already be in line for more receptions from the backfield. But he also gets a solid upgrade in rushing schedule that should keep him on the field and productive. Bucky Irving was drafted to help out, but an easier schedule should keep White looking better and keep Irving from making inroads for a bigger share.

About the same schedule strength

The only notable teams are the Bengals and Colts who repeat what were already tough schedules from 2023.

Worst schedule swings

Christian McCaffrey (SF) – Okay, so the best running back from 2023 has the worst swing in schedule strength. Is that enough to sway you from taking him with the 1.01 pick? Probably not. McCaffrey’s problem is more about staying healthy but he’s always a monster when he plays because he just switches to being a receiver if the rushing lanes are clogged. Still, will be interesting to track.

Bijan Robinson (ATL) – Not Bijan too! The Falcons’ stud running back is hoping to become “all that he can be” now that Arthur Smith is gone and new OC Zac Robinson wants to use him extensively in any way they can get the ball into his hands. But the dip from No. 7 down to the No. 29 is concerning for any back. On the plus, Robinson’s volume should be much higher for 2024, and he was already the No. 8 fantasy running back last year with partial use.

Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) – While Christian McCaffrey and Bijan Robinson should be better than their schedules, the same may not be true for the aging Elliott, who has slowed down and is now back in Dallas for the second time for a team with a lesser O-line and now the worst schedule for running backs. Elliott is no lock to remain the RB1 in Dallas all season and has fallen deep in drafts. This won’t make him any more appealing.

Travis Etienne (JAC) – The schedule strength has taken a downturn from 2023, but like McCaffrey and Robinson, Etienne is a dual-threat back and the center of their backfield that contains no real competition.

James Cook (BUF) – This is a bit concerning for a lesser talented back than the above players. Cook ended as the No. 11 fantasy back last year as a surprise, but he was facing the No. 2 best fantasy schedule for the position. He drops below average for 2024, and the Bills offense will be different with their best wideouts gone. That may help Cook see more receptions, but he’s probably not “better than his schedule.”

2023 Schedule Swings: Running Backs

Which RB gets an easier schedule for 2023? Who experiences the worst drop in schedule strength?

The schedule strength for running backs is always the most accurate among fantasy positions, thanks to their volume of work and the tendency of teams to feature the run and rely more consistently on individual players. That makes this analysis the most reliable.

The average fantasy points allowed by defenses to running backs last year were applied to each offense’s schedule to determine their true schedule strength of last year, and applied the same values to their 2023 schedule. This includes considering both home and away venues separately for each defense.

The resulting fantasy point advantages are compared between years and their difference is their “swing points.”  The higher the Swing Points, the better their schedule is compared to last year. This analysis is more telling than standard schedule strength. You know what happened last year with players – do they get an easier or tougher schedule for 2023?

Best schedule swings

Swing Pts 2023 Pts 2022 Pts .. SOS 2023 Rank 2022 Rank
GB 28.3 6.5 -21.8 GB 10 31
PIT 25.7 10.7 -14.9 PIT 7 28
CLE 21.2 18.4 -2.8 CLE 2 20
TB 19.5 12.5 -7.0 TB 5 24
MIN 16.1 7.1 -9.0 MIN 9 27
NO 14.3 8.0 -6.3 NO 8 23
KC 10.0 29.6 19.6 KC 1 6
BAL 9.5 1.8 -7.6 BAL 14 25

Aaron Jones / AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers – The Packers were saddled with one of the worst running back schedules last year, but Aaron Jones was still the No. 6 fantasy back while Dillion fell from No. 22 to No. 28. Jones turned in another solid year as a rusher and added a career-best 59 catches while Dillon handled almost the same touches as 2021, but wasn’t as effective. The departure of Aaron Rodgers throws everything into question, but at least Jones and Dillion won’t have the schedule working against them.

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers – In his rookie season, Harris faced the No. 4 easiest schedule for running backs and ended up as the No. 3 fantasy back thanks in part to his 74 catches. When he suffered a major decline in schedule strength down to only No. 28, he ended up as the No. 14 fantasy back while the Steelers adjusted to life without Ben Roethlisberger. Harris inherits yet another major shift in schedule strength this year, back up to one of the more advantageous slate of games.

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns – The Browns are consistently in the Top-5 in rushing stats  and have the upgrade in passing with a full season of Deshaun Watson for 2022. Chubb ended as the No. 5 fantasy back anyway, with a career-best 302 carries for 1,525 yards. The Browns lost Kareem Hunt with no real upgrades and just Jerome Ford to play the complementary role. Chubb’s a safe bet for another stellar year that may not be quite as busy, but could be even more effective.

Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – As of this writing, Leonard Fournette has not signed with anyone, so he could return. The Buccaneers are entering a new era without Tom Brady and relying on a new offensive scheme under first-year OC Dave Canales. Chase Edmonds is new and yet already proven to be just the back half of any committee. The second-year rusher White is the heir apparent to the starting role after just 129 carries as a rookie with only a 3.7-yard average. Another back may still be acquired but at least White is situated with a better situation and schedule than he experienced last year.

About the same schedule strength

Swing Pts 2023 Pts 2022 Pts .. SOS 2023 Rank 2022 Rank
CIN 6.9 -9.2 -16.1 CIN 22 29
BUF 3.3 -17.0 -20.3 BUF 24 30
WAS 1.2 0.0 -1.2 WAS 18 18
LAR 1.2 1.2 0.0 LAR 15 17
DET 0.3 12.0 11.7 DET 6 13
MIA -4.2 -29.6 -25.5 MIA 30 32
CHI -4.6 -7.7 -3.1 CHI 21 21
TEN -10.6 17.4 28.0 TEN 3 2
JAC -12.0 2.1 14.2 JAC 13 11
CAR -19.0 -20.7 -1.7 CAR 26 19
NYJ -19.3 0.0 19.3 NYJ 17 7
DEN -19.5 2.5 21.9 DEN 11 5
HOU -19.9 -11.3 8.6 HOU 23 15
SF -22.2 2.4 24.6 SF 12 4
IND -22.3 -3.1 19.1 IND 19 8
LAC -22.6 15.4 38.0 LAC 4 1

This middle tier says that the schedule shouldn’t be notably bad or good from 2022, so the expectations shouldn’t change in regard to current year opponents. The notable unchanged include Miami facing the No. 30 schedule after battling the No. 32 last year. Derrick Henry (3 vs. 2) and Austin Ekeler (4 vs. 1) again enjoy top ranked schedules.

Worst schedule swings

Swing Pts 2023 Pts 2022 Pts .. SOS 2023 Rank 2022 Rank
ARI -23.9 -7.3 16.5 ARI 20 10
PHI -24.2 -28.6 -4.4 PHI 28 22
SEA -24.9 -33.0 -8.0 SEA 32 26
ATL -25.0 -21.1 3.9 ATL 27 16
NE -26.1 0.4 26.5 NE 16 3
LV -38.0 -19.8 18.2 LV 25 9
DAL -41.2 -29.2 11.9 DAL 29 12
NYG -42.2 -32.8 9.4 NYG 31 14

As it works out, most of the worst swings are just teams that faced average schedules last year, dropping down to face one of the worst. An impact to be sure, but at least no backfield suffers a freefall from the best to the worst schedule.

Saquon Barkley, New York Giants – Barkley looked to face a bad schedule in 2022 when he seemingly inherited one of the worst schedules but it ended up not quite so bad as it played out and he managed to stay healthy for the first time since his stellar rookie season. But it is back to yet another tough slate of opponents based on last year’s stats. Barkley has already proven to be better than the effects of a bad schedule anyway, and the offense appears to be on a very positive track between HC Brian Daboll and OC Mike Kafka.

Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys – Like Fournette in Tampa Bay, there is a chance that Ezekiel Elliott re-signs with the Cowboys at a reduced rate (and assumedly workload as well). But Pollard parlayed a fine fourth season into a Top-10 finish among fantasy backs and forced the Cowboys to rethink their backfield. The Cowboys spoke to wanting more rushing this season which is nearly impossible given that their backfield handled an NFL-high 506 carries in 2022. And the only replacements for Elliott are Malik Davis, Ronald Jones and the diminutive Deuce Vaughn. The Cowboys have faced average schedules the last few years, so this downgrade comes at an interesting time with backfield roles changing.

Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders – Like Barkley, the Raiders schedule looked very tough entering 2022 but Jacobs excelled in the first season under HC Josh McDaniels as one of the most productive backs in the NFL. It helped that he went from a previous high of only 273 rushes to 340 carries last year. There’s a contentious contract situation that could be involved and a quarterback situation that is changing. That alone spells some risk, and the schedule won’t be an advantage even if he somehow repeats his 393 touches from last year.

Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots – The Patriots offense went without OC Josh McDaniels but that meant a heavy reliance on second-year Stevenson, especially as a receiver (69 receptions). That allowed him a Top-10 finish after only ranking No. 48 as a rookie. The offensive scheme is changing again this year with Bill O’Brien as the new coordinator but the Pats appear likely to repeat the usage of Stevenson. The schedule downgrade from what was one of the best down to only average will have an impact, but much of what Stevenson did was related to his receptions, and that should insulate himself from any dramatic decline in fantasy points.