The Huddle created the very first strength of schedule for fantasy football positions in 1997 and has continuously tweaked and refined it. This provides an early expectation for your fantasy players by applying the averages allowed by defenses last year to current schedules.
The analysis also extends to the venue. There is a difference between how defenses respond either home or away, which creates 64 individual “defensive matchups” depending on the game location.
The scoring was a point for every 20 passing yards and four-point touchdowns. Rushing is a point for every 10 yards and six-point scores. The average passing fantasy points allowed by defenses to quarterbacks are at the bottom of this page for reference.
See also: Running Backs | Receivers
Total Points Allowed
For fantasy contests and some leagues, only total points matter. Below are the total points for each passing offense, according to their schedule using the averages allowed in 2023 by those defenses.
Weekly Play
Three different views are below. Week 1 to 17 is the full-season fantasy strength of schedule. “The Dorey Rule” says to draft by considering the first six weeks for a hot start. Finally, Weeks 15 to 17 represent the most common fantasy playoff weeks. “Good” games were when they faced one of the top 22 venues from last year; “Bad” was when they played in one of the worst 22.
Best schedule strength
Jared Goff (DET) – The Lions already ranked No. 5 in pass yards last year and now get the lightest schedule based on the previous season with only two of the worst 21 venues. They look to get a hot start with five of their first six matchups against the weakest venues. Jared Goff redeemed himself in Detroit, and 2024 doesn’t look to change that.
Caleb Williams (CHI) – This could be one of those great schedules wasted on a rookie learning the ropes. Fantasy fans are naturally suspicious of a rookie quarterback but notable is that Williams enjoys five straight of the most productive venues to close out his fantasy season. By then, he’ll have some experience and could help out if your usual starter is no longer on the field in December.
Drake Maye (NE) – This rookie doesn’t enjoy similar advantageous matchups to end the year like Caleb Williams, but he only has three bad matchups on his schedule. There are already plenty of questions around his receivers and the Pats are starting over on offense which will not help. But the schedule won’t be why his stats don’t meet expectations.
Kyler Murray (ARI) – His season ends with a tougher slate of opponents, but he gets six softer venues over his first nine games and only one bad matchup (Week 1 @BUF). Murray hasn’t been a fantasy advantage for the last two years, but the second season in OC Drew Petzing’s offense enjoys a much better schedule. He’s boosted into being at least a worthy backup fantasy quarterback.
Aaron Rodgers (NYJ) – Coming off one of the most disappointing seasons in NFL history, Rodgers starts out with an upgraded offense and O-line, and even one of the better schedules in the league. Week 17 in Buffalo may be tricky, but the month prior to that should help fantasy playoff teams.
Worst schedule strength
Somebody (DEN) – The Broncos will spend the summer deciding if Bo Nix, Zach Wilson, or Jarrett Stidham will be the Week 1 starter. But Bo Nix will take over the second the coaches think he can. Unfortunately, he’ll face the NFL’s worst fantasy schedule for quarterbacks. It clears up later in the year, but he’ll face an uphill stretch for the first three months.
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) – Not to worry. The Dolphins’ schedule is tough but mostly due to a lack of easy matchups. And the No. 2 offense in passing yardage from last year already proved to be better than their schedule.
Joe Burrow (CIN) – The Bengals face a challenging opening stretch with six of their first seven weeks at the tougher venues. The offense looks slightly worse overall from 2023, but a lesser backfield may force them to throw even more. This is a challenging schedule, but Burrow is an elite quarterback.
Baker Mayfield (TB) – He’s reinvigorated his career while in Tampa Bay and took advantage of a moderately easy schedule last year. But Mayfield enters 2024 with an NFL-worst eight matchups against the top defensive venues from last year. Oddly enough, he starts the year with four straight easy matchups and then never has another for the rest of the year. He might be worth pairing him with a quarterback that ends the year with a lighter schedule.
Russell Wilson (PIT) – He hasn’t been a true fantasy factor for the last three years, and now moves onto the Steelers where the schedule is no friend thanks to playing in the AFC North. Adding in Justin Fields who wants to prove his career is not over means added risk on top of a worse slate of games.
2024 weekly schedule strength by team
Fantasy points allowed
These are the values applied to this year’s schedule to determine strength of schedule for quarterbacks per opponent and venue.
