Tag: Duke Blue Devils vs. North Carolina Tar Heels odds predictions pick betting line spread

Duke at North Carolina odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Duke at North Carolina odds and lines, with expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.

The Duke Blue Devils (22-8, 13-6 ACC) finish the season against the North Carolina Tar Heels (19-11, 11-8) Saturday in Chapel Hill. Tip from Dean E. Smith Center is at 6:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Duke vs. UNC odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.

After these rivals, located just 7 miles apart, met in the Final Four in 2022, no one would have imagined their 2023 regular-season finales possibly being for a return trip to the tournament.

UNC came into the season ranked No. 1 in the nation with 4 returning starters and an excellent incoming freshman class. Legendary coach Mike Krzyzewski retired following 2022, but this was not supposed to happen.

The Tar Heels will likely miss the tournament unless they can win Saturday and make a deep run in the ACC Tournament. Duke is more solid in its position, but it would love nothing better than to be the final nail in its rival’s coffin.

Duke has dealt with injury and had touted freshmen not live up to the hype. While the Blue Devils are normally a good 3-point shooting team, they have only hit 33.0% on the season (245th nationally).

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Duke at UNC odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Duke +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | UNC -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Duke +3.5 (-105) | UNC -3.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 143.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Duke at UNC picks and predictions

Prediction

Duke 74, UNC 71

Moneyline

BET DUKE (+150).

UNC has everything on the line at home in this game and coach Hubert Davis will have the Tar Heels ready to go. But in this season and with this team, it won’t be enough.

Duke topped UNC 63-57 as a 2.5-point home favorite as the Under (145.5) connected on Feb. 4.

This will be another close battle, but the underdog Blue Devils will win.

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Against the spread

This is a PASS for me, but if you would rather take the points with Duke (or do a split moneyline/against the spread wager), that’s a reasonable strategy as well.

However, I think Duke will be able to pull off the upset over its rivals and I would rather make the moneyline play and forego the less lucrative spread.

Over/Under

BET OVER 143.5 (-110).

Saturday should give us a close game with a solid pace.

The Over is 5-1 in the Blue Devils’ last 6 games against a team with a winning record. UNC has a similar streak going as it is 7-1 to the Over in its last 8 against a team with a winning record.

A close game at the end means trips to the free throw line will also be in store. This will help propel the game OVER 143.5 (-110).

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Duke at North Carolina odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Duke at North Carolina odds and lines, with college basketball expert picks, predictions and best bets.

On Saturday, the No. 6 Duke Blue Devils (18-3, 8-2 ACC) travel the Dean Smith Center to take on the North Carolina Tar Heels (16-6, 8-3 ACC). Tip-off is scheduled for 6 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Duke vs. North Carolina odds and lines, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.

In Coach K’s last visit to Chapel Hill, his Blue Devils will be heavily favored. They’re coming off a 14-point win and cover on the road over Notre Dame.

Duke has covered 5 of its last 7. The Blue Devils are an ACC-best 12-7-1 against the spread (ATS). As for North Carolina, it’s 10-12 ATS this season. North Carolina covered its only game as home underdogs.

The Tar Heels have covered 6 of their last 10 and 3 of their last 4. They’re led by big man C Armando Bacot, who averages 16.5 points and 12.5 rebounds per game.

Rankings courtesy of the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.

Duke at North Carolina odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:40 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Duke -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | North Carolina +133 (bet $100 to win $133)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Duke -2.5 (-122) | North Carolina +2.5 (-102)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 150.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Duke at North Carolina odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Duke 78, North Carolina 76

Money line

PASS on the money line.

I prefer the North Carolina spread here, and considering 2 of the last 5 matchups between these two teams were won by fewer than two points, I’ll take the points.

Against the spread

“LEAN” to NORTH CAROLINA +2.5 (-102).

The Tar Heels are undefeated at home this season. While most teams get hurt by Duke’s size, Bacot will limit the 7-foot C Mark Williams. Williams averages 2.6 offensive boards per game.

That said, the Blue Devils are 3-2 on the road this season, and to add to that, the Tar Heels have either won or covered a 2.5-point spread in 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two sides.

North Carolina is also better than Duke at covering conference games (7-4 vs. 6-4 respectively).

Over/Under

BET on the OVER 150.5 (-112).

Both teams heavily crash the glass. Each is a top-50 offensive rebounding side. That said, Duke is averaging 80.4 points per game this season. North Carolina is at 78.5.

Given that 6 of the last 7 matchups between these two rivals have gone over this projected total, I’ll take the points in this battle of two high-profile programs.

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Duke at North Carolina odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Duke Blue Devils at North Carolina Tar Heels odds and lines, with college football expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Duke Blue Devils (3-1, 0-0 ACC) and North Carolina Tar Heels (2-2, 1-2) meet Saturday at Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill, N.C. Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET. Below, we look at the Duke vs. North Carolina odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.

The Blue Devils rolled up a 52-33 win at home against Kansas last Saturday, the third consecutive win, cover and Over result for Duke. RB Mataeo Durant went over 100 rushing yards for the third time in four games. He has 11 touchdowns, including 8 rushing with at least one TD run in each game.

The Tar Heels were blasted 45-22 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta in a neutral-site game against Georgia Tech. The defense has yielded 42.0 points per game (PPG) in the past two games, and the Over has cashed in three straight for UNC.

Duke at North Carolina odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 5:11 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Duke +700 (bet $100 to win $700) | North Carolina -1200 (bet $1,200 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Duke +20.5 (-120) | North Carolina -20.5 (+100)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 71.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Duke at North Carolina odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

North Carolina 45, Duke 34

Money line

North Carolina (-1200) has been a little tough to figure lately. It fell flat on its face in a 17-10 loss at Virginia Tech but appeared to have the offense back on track with consecutive 59-point showings.

However, the struggles at Georgia Tech were inexplicable, and a win over rival Duke for the Victory Bell isn’t a given. Laying 12 times your potential return is extremely risky behavior.

AVOID and look to the spread instead.

Against the spread

DUKE +20.5 (-120) is an amazing value, catching nearly three touchdowns. The Blue Devils might not head back up US 15/501 with the Victory Bell in tow, but they will head back up to Durham with the cover.

North Carolina has struggled mightily this season, and it will have its hands full trying to corral Durant in the run game. Duke has received solid play from QB Gunnar Holmberg and WR Jake Bobo, too. The Blue Devils are definitely not a one-trick pony.

The Blue Devils defense will have difficulty shutting down North Carolina QB Sam Howell, however. The defense is allowing 422.3 total yards per game, and 26.0 PPG.

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Over/Under

OVER 71.5 (-115) is a strong play in this rivalry game between two teams with strong offenses and defenses, which have been having difficulty.

Last season UNC came away with a 56-24 win at Wallace Wade Stadium. While the Under is actually 7-2 in the past nine meetings at Kenan, this is easily Duke’s most explosive offense in years. Durant, Holmberg and Bobo will keep the Blue Devils in this high-scoring affair until the fourth quarter.

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Duke at North Carolina odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s Duke Blue Devils at North Carolina Tar Heels odds and lines, with college basketball betting picks, tips and predictions.

The Duke Blue Devils (11-10 overall, 9-8 ACC) visit the North Carolina Tar Heels (15-9, 9-6) Saturday. The Tobacco Road rivals close out their regular seasons with a 6 p.m. ET tip-off at Dean Smith E. Center in Chapel Hill, N.C Below, we analyze the Duke-North Carolina college basketball odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

Neither team is ranked in the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.

North Carolina is tied for sixth place in the Atlantic Coast Conference. Duke is tied for ninth and faces the possibility of not making the NCAA tourney for the first time since the 1994-95 season.

Duke at North Carolina: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:02 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Duke +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | North Carolina -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Duke +3.5 (-115) | North Carolina -3.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under: 148.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Duke at North Carolina: Three things to know

  1. The Blue Devils are coming off back-to-back overtime heartbreakers. They lost at Georgia Tech 81-77 as 1-point underdogs Tuesday, three days after an 80-73 home setback to Louisville as 5-point favorites.  Sophomore F Matthew Hurt leads Duke in scoring (18.9 points per game) and rebounds (6.2 RPG).
  2. The Tar Heels, who trailed by 8 points with 51 seconds to go, came up short in a 72-70 loss at Syracuse as 2.5-point favorites Monday. It was just two days after North Carolina upset then-No. 9 and ACC frontrunner Florida State 78-70 as a 2-point home dog. Sophomore F Armando Bacot leads UNC in scoring (11.5 PPG) and freshman F Day’Ron Sharpe is the top rebounder (8.0 RPG).
  3. North Carolina beat Duke 91-87 as a 2.5-point underdog in early February, snapping a three-game skid in the series. Freshman G Caleb Love scored a season-high 25 points and junior G Leaky Black sank two free throws with 7.2 seconds left to seal it.

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Duke at North Carolina: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Duke 73, North Carolina 72

Money line (ML)

Back DUKE (+135) with a HALF-UNIT play. Sitting on the NCAA bubble, the Blue Devils can’t afford to lose. Look for Coach K’s crew to avenge the February loss and pick up steam heading into the ACC tourney.

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Against the spread (ATS)

DUKE +3.5 (-115) is the play. Surprisingly, there’s no home-court advantage. The Blue Devils are 5-5 in their last 10 trips to Chapel Hill, including a 98-96 overtime victory last season. The Blue Devils will rise to the occasion as they need this win more than their rivals.

ATS: Duke 7-14 | North Carolina 10-13-1

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 148.5 (-110) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager. The Devils are on a 5-0 Over run, but they would be 1-4 O/U vs. a line of 148.5 in those five games when not counting overtime points (from the last two losses).

Meanwhile, the Tar Heels are awful from 3-point range, shooting 30.4%, and hit just 43.8% from the field. They finished 10-for-15 behind the 3-point arc in the February win. That won’t happen again.

O/U records: Duke 13-7-1 | North Carolina 10-14

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JOHNNY PARLAY’S RECORD W-L SP ROI
College hoops since Jan. 1 65-53-1 29-29 +7.5
2020-21 College hoops 80-70-1 34-39 +0.755
2021 record (all sports) 83-64-1 40-31 +19.8
*–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment

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