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The Houston Texans (1-0) welcome the Miami Dolphins (0-1) to NRG Stadium Saturday. Kickoff is set for 4 p.m. ET (NFL Network). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Dolphins vs. Texans odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
The Texans beat the New England Patriots 20-9 on Aug. 10. No. 2 overall pick QB CJ Stroud played 1 series and went 2-of-4 for 13 yards and an INT. QBs Case Keenum (79 passing yards, 1 TD) and Davis Mills (99 yards, 1 TD) will again get most of the workload. Rookie WR Nathaniel Dell had 5 receptions for 65 yards and a TD.
The Dolphins lost to the Falcons 19-3 on Aug. 11 and failed to cover as a 2.5-point underdog. Miami was led by QB Mike White and Skylar Thompson, who combined for 3 INTs. RB Myles Gaskin had 7 carries for 57 yards. Given starting QB Tua Tagovailoa‘s injury history, it is likely White and Thompson again see the vast majority of snaps.
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Dolphins at Texans odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 9 a.m. ET,
- Moneyline (ML): Dolphins +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Texans -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Dolphins +2.5 (-110) | Texans -2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 39.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Dolphins at Texans picks and predictions
Prediction
Texans 20, Dolphins 17
Moneyline
PASS.
The Texans have more competence at quarterback, and that should aid it at home against the Dolphins, which may only play backups under center. Houston will have Stroud and former 3rd-round pick Mills to choose from. The Texans should win this game, but at (-145), I’d rather play the spread here.
Against the spread
BET TEXANS -2.5 (-110).
Preseason often shows glaring flaws in depth. While Houston isn’t supposed to be great this season, it has some of the best rookies in the league, and Dell plus Stroud and top-5 pick DE Will Anderson Jr. should have an impact unlike many of the backups for Miami.
Even if Stroud does not play, Mills started 15 games for Houston last season and 11 the year prior. He might not be the future of the franchise, but he is competent and should lead successful drives, which the Dolphins’ backups proved they couldn’t do in Week 1.
Take TEXANS -2.5 (-110).
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Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 39.5 (-110).
The Texans’ defense looked good against New England, allowing just 9 points. The Dolphins offense may not have much more competence with WR Tyreek Hill and WR Jaylen Waddle likely seeing limited snaps.
Miami scored 3 points in its opener and allowed 19, both of which are positives for the Under. It had 4 turnovers and allowed 5 sacks. The backups on the Dolphins line didn’t hold up, and they may not again Saturday.
Expect drives to stall. Take UNDER 39.5 (-110).
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