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The Houston Texans (8-5) come off their bye week to host the Miami Dolphins (6-7) on Sunday during NFL’s Week 15. Kickoff from NRG Stadium is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Dolphins vs. Texans odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
Houston begins a crucial period for postseason positioning with 3 games in 11 days against the Dolphins, Kansas City Chiefs, and Baltimore Ravens. The squad hopes C.J. Stroud can regain his rookie-year form; the Ohio State alum has just 2 passing games of 300-plus yards this season, compared to 6 last year.
On the bright side, the Texans won 2 of their 3 games heading into their Week 14 bye, including a 23-20 survival win over the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 13. Houston still holds the pole position in the AFC South, which would guarantee them a first-round home game.
Miami sits outside the playoff picture, but remains in the hunt thanks to winning 4 of its past 5 games. This run was stressfully punctuated by its own fortunate escape last time out, a 32-26 overtime win against the New York Jets.
Unlike Stroud, Tua Tagovailoa has thrived lately, averaging 325.3 passing yards and 2.8 TD with an absurd 75.1% completion rate across his past 4 outings. The Dolphins QB looks to be rounding back into form after another stint of missed time due to post-concussion symptoms.
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Dolphins at Texans odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Saturday at 6:47 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Dolphins +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Texans -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Dolphins +3 (-115) | Texans -3 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 47 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Dolphins at Texans key injuries
Dolphins
- LT Terron Armstead (knee) doubtful
- OLB Bradley Chubb (knee) questionable
Texans
- No significant injuries
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Dolphins at Texans picks and predictions
Prediction
Texans 27, Dolphins 24
Moneyline
Houston lost after its Week 7 bye last year during DeMeco Ryans’ first season as head coach. However, though many pundits point to records after off-weeks, Ryans only has one week of history, so we’re not going to overvalue it.
Favor the Texans with their late bye week.
BET TEXANS (-150).
Against the spread
Both clubs have disappointed their sportsbook markets on the line this year. Houston has gone 5-6-2 ATS overall, plus 2-3-1 at home. Miami is 5-8, including 3-3 on the road.
Somebody has to win this spread. Should bettors try to guess?
The above prediction of a 3-point win should signal that bettors likely won’t gain an edge from either side. Focus on the next section instead.
PASS.
Over/Under
In the strongest tip of this game, back the point total to exceed the line.
A refreshed Houston offense facing Miami’s track-meet attack on an indoor surface should lead to plenty of scoring.
BetMGM offers a favorable floor for our predicted total score. Those looking to squeeze more out of the scoreboard should lock in FanDuel Sportsbook‘s alternative line of Over 50.5 (+140).
BET OVER 47 (-110) at BetMGM or BET OVER 50.5 (+140) at FanDuel.
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