Tag: dolphins playoff odds

Dolphins top-seed odds ahead of matchup with the Ravens

What are the chances of the Dolphins securing the No. 1 seed in the AFC heading into Week 17?

The Miami Dolphins have done well through the first 16 weeks of the season, as they’ve put together an 11-4 record that has them in second place in the AFC heading into their matchup with the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday afternoon.

With only two games left in the regular season, the New York Times has a playoff simulator that gives the odds of teams making the postseason, as well as if they’ll have a bye week, host a wild-card game or be the team hosted on wild-card weekend.

Miami already clinched a playoff spot last weekend with their victory over the Dallas Cowboys, but where will they finish?

Based on 107,680 simulations, the Dolphins have a 22% chance of being the top seed in the AFC and securing first-round bye week. They have a 79% chance of playing on wild-card weekend (56% as the host and 23% as the visitor).

Miami’s odds of taking the top spot in the conference jumped after their win over the Dallas Cowboys last week (moving from 12% to 22%). With a head-to-head matchup against the top team in the AFC this week, a win for the Dolphins could boost their odds to 60% for stealing that first seed.

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Dolphins playoff and top-seed odds ahead of matchup with the Cowboys

What are the chances that the Dolphins make the playoffs AND take the top seed in the AFC heading into Week 16?

The Miami Dolphins have done well through the first 15 weeks of the season, as they’ve put together a 10-4 record that has them in second place in the AFC heading into their matchup with the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday afternoon.

With only three games left in the regular season, the New York Times has a playoff simulator that gives the odds of teams making the postseason, as well as if they’ll have a bye week, host a wild-card game or be the team hosted on wild-card weekend.

Based on 240,000 simulations, the Dolphins have a 99% chance of making the postseason. With that, they have a 12% chance of being the top seed in the AFC and securing a first-round bye week. They have an 86% chance of playing on wild-card weekend (47% as the host and 39% as the visitor).

A win over the Cowboys gives Miami a 19% chance of being the first seed, but obviously, other results could make their odds better or worse.

The Dolphins’ chances of taking the top spot in the conference fell despite their win over the New York Jets last week (dropping from 14% to 12%). They have a lot to prove over their last three weeks with three playoff/Super Bowl contenders on the schedule. If Miami wins out, they’ll pass the Baltimore Ravens and earn a first-round bye.

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Dolphins playoff and top-seed odds ahead of matchup with the Jets

What are the chances that the Dolphins make the playoffs AND take the top seed in the AFC heading into Week 15?

The Miami Dolphins have done well through the first 14 weeks of the season, as they’ve put together a 9-4 record that has them in second place in the AFC heading into their matchup with the New York Jets on Sunday afternoon.

With only four games left in the regular season, the New York Times has a playoff simulator that gives the odds of teams making the postseason, as well as if they’ll have a bye week, host a wild-card game or be the team hosted on wild-card weekend.

Based on 60, 921 simulations, the Dolphins have a 97% chance of making the postseason. With that, they have a 14% chance of being the top seed in the AFC and securing a first-round bye week. They have a 88% chance of playing on wild-card weekend (62% as the host and 22% as the visitor).

A win over the Jets gives Miami a 17% chance of being the first seed, but obviously, other results could make their odds better or worse.

The Dolphins took a tough loss to the Tennessee Titans last week that dropped their first-place odds from 37%, so they have a lot to prove, especially with two games against two teams with the best record in the league (the Baltimore Ravens and Dallas Cowboys) still on the schedule.

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In a loss, the Dolphins showed how dangerous their offense can be

In the Dolphins’ loss to the 49ers, Tua Tagovailoa failed his great offense more than San Francisco’s great defense stopped it. Watch out for the rebound.

The only way the San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins will face each other again after San Francisco’s 33-17 Week 13 win over Miami is if the two teams play in Super Bowl LVII. Which is not outside the realm of possibility.

If that happens, the 49ers’ defense, and defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans, will have some work to do. Sounds nuts to say after a game in which Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa completed 18 of 33 passes for 295 yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 79.7 (his second-worst game of the season by passer rating behind his 52.7 game against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 4), but the stuff Tagovailoa left on the bone with hurried and errant throws should be serious cause for concern should these teams meet again.

This is not a slight to Ryans or his defense; they rank second in DVOA behind the Dallas Cowboys, and justifiably so. But a tape review of the game shows that had Tagovailoa played at the same level he has most of the season, the Dolphins might well have lit that defense up. They did so on the first play of the game, a 75-yard touchdown pass to receiver Trent Sherfield. Dolphins head coach and longtime Kyle Shanahan assistant Mike McDaniel was in his bag here. He had running back Raheem Mostert and fullback Alec Ingold run scissors out of the backfield, which forced linebackers Fred Warner and Azeez Al-Shaair to cheat up, and Tagovailoa hit the easy button to Sherfield behind Warner.

But if you take that play out, Tagovailoa’s day looks a lot worse — 17 of 32 for 220 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 60.0. And again, with all due respect to San Francisco’s defense, this was more about what Tagovailoa didn’t do with open shots than the 49ers closing him off.

“I would say my spot in the pocket,” Tagovailoa said Wednesday, when asked what went wrong.  There were many points in the game that I wasn’t in the spot that I told the guys up front I would be in and so therefore, I kind of put myself in bad situations. So doing that and then there were also some plays that were missed that I wish I could get back.

“I can’t be playing wishful football.”

This was not the Tagovailoa game anybody wished for, outside of the 49ers, who benefited greatly from missteps we really haven’t seen from Miami’s quarterback this season. As long as Tagovailoa is able to recover against the Los Angeles Chargers this Sunday and beyond, we can call it a “Burn the Tape” game and move along.

More importantly, this game showed how the Dolphins are capable of turning any defense out with their passing game — even a truly great defense — and it augurs well for the Dolphins’ chances down the stretch.