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The New England Patriots (12-3) host the Miami Dolphins (4-11) at Gillette Stadium Sunday at 1 p.m. ET to close out the regular season. We analyze the Patriots-Dolphins odds and betting lines, while providing best-bet options around this Week 17 NFL matchup.
The Patriots, who have already won the AFC East and have punched their ticket to the NFL playoffs, can clinch a first-round bye with a win or tie — or a Kansas City Chiefs loss or tie. With Kansas City playing the Los Angeles Chargers at 1 p.m. ET, you can expect the Patriots to play to win.
Miami, of course, has been eliminated from playoff contention.
Dolphins at Patriots: Week 17 preview, betting trends and notes
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- The Patriots pulled off a big 24-17 victory over the Buffalo Bills last week, covering across the board and hitting the Over.
- The Dolphins are coming off a 38-35 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals.
- Patriots QB Tom Brady hit 78.8 percent of his passes last week against Buffalo; it was the first time since Week 6 that his completion percentage was north of 70%.
- These two teams met in Week 2; a 43-0 New England victory. The Patriots have won three of the last five meetings vs. the Dolphins. Each of the Miami wins came during December, although those were games in South Florida.
Dolphins at Patriots: Key injuries
New England WR Julian Edelman (knee/shoulder), officially questionable, was limited all week, but he’s been toughing it out come game-day.
Dolphins WR Allen Hurns (ankle/neck) was limited all week and is questionable.
Dolphins at Patriots: Odds, betting lines and prediction
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 12:10 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Patriots 26, Dolphins 13
Moneyline (?)
There’s nothing smart about betting on a team with -1112 odds like the Patriots have been given entering this one. This is extreme chalk. You’d have to risk $1,112 to win $100. No thank you.
While I like the Patriots to win, I couldn’t blame you for tossing a small-unit wager on the Dolphins (+660) at ridiculously high odds.
New to sports betting? A $10 bet would profit $66 with a Miami upset.
Against the Spread (?)
While the Patriots cruised in their first matchup, the teams are significantly different at the tail-end of the season. MIAMI (+15.5, -110) should be able to mount just enough offense to keep this within the large spread. I’m always more than a little skeptical of two-plus touchdown spreads in divisional games. The Patriots have scored better than 30 points just once during the second half of the season.
The Dolphins are 4-3-0 vs. ATS on the road this year, but just 4-11 overall. New England is 12-3 ATS overall, but just 3-3-1 at home.
Over/Under (?)
The UNDER (44.5, -110) is the lean, as the Patriots defense will generally limit the challenged Dolphins offense and the New England offense isn’t special enough right now to blow up Miami. The Pats are 6-9-0 vs. the O/U this season, including 3-4-0 at home. The Dolphins are 3-4-0 vs. the O/U on the road.
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Ryan’s NFL Picks: 33-18
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