The Miami Dolphins (6-3) visit the Denver Broncos (3-6) Sunday for a 4:05 p.m. ET kickoff in Empower Field at Mile High. Below, we preview the Dolphins-Broncos betting odds and lines and make our NFL picks and predictions.
Dolphins at Broncos: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 10:04 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Dolphins -209 (bet $209 to win $100) | Broncos +175 (bet $100 to win $175)
- Against the spread/ATS: Dolphins -4 (-110) | Broncos +4 (-110)
- Over/Under: 45.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Dolphins at Broncos: Game notes
- Miami has won five straight games—outright and ATS—including a 29-21 win over the Los Angeles Chargers last week.
- The Dolphins are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games dating back to last season.
- Denver got drilled, 37-12, by AFC West rival Las Vegas Raiders in Week 10. The Broncos were minus-five in turnovers, pushing their season turnover differential to -12 (ranked 31st).
- Historically, Miami has gotten the better of Denver in this head-to-head as the Dolphins have a 12-6-1 career record against the Broncos. Miami is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games against Denver, including 4-0 ATS in its last four games at Mile High.
Dolphins at Broncos: Key injuries
Dolphins
- RG Solomon Kindley (foot) questionable
- LB Kyle Van Noy (hip) questionable
Broncos
- QB Drew Lock (ribs) questionable
- TE Noah Fant (ribs) questionable
- LB Joe Jones (calf) out
- RG Graham Glasgow (calf) questionable
- DT DeShawn Williams (ankle) questionable
- CB Bryce Callahan (illness) questionable
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Dolphins at Broncos: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Dolphins 24, Broncos 13
Money line (?)
If we got here early, we’d hammer Miami at the opening number (-110 for both teams) but the Dolphins -209 is unplayable straight up. You could parlay it with the Ravens’ or Chiefs’ money line but I am going to PASS.
My one caveat is the Broncos could be a live dog if they can get their two-headed rushing attack going—RBs Phillip Lindsay and Melvin Gordon—vs. a Miami rush defense that is ranked 29th in DVOA, according to Football Outsiders.
PASS ON THE MONEY LINE.
Against the spread (?)
The action is completely one-sided in Dolphins-Broncos: 85% of the money and 89% of the bets are Miami, which moved the line from a pick ‘em to the current price. So, the House is really hoping the Broncos come through and usually, it’s wise to be on the same side as the House.
However, I think the Broncos backers are being too sharp for their own good. I get it: 3 and the hook against a rookie quarterback (Tua Tagovailoa) who’s coming off three straight wins and going to a traditionally tough place to play (Denver from November on).
The Dolphins are among five 6-3 AFC teams competing for a Wild Card berth and still have a realistic shot to run down the Buffalo Bills for first place in the AFC East.
GIMME DOLPHINS -4 (-110) for 1 unit.
Over/Under (?)
The reason I’m betting Miami is because head coach Brian Flores is a defensive whiz. The Dolphins are ranked 6th in opponent’s QB Rating, fourth in opponent’s points per play and third in opponent’s third-down conversion percentage.
Miami’s probable offensive game script and how its defense matches up against a bad Denver makes me lean Under 45.5 for a half-unit.
Want action on this NFL game? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Also see:
- Weather forecast for Week 11 matchup vs Broncos (Dolphins Wire)
- Fangio lists 11 Broncos who deserve Pro Bowl consideration (Broncos Wire)
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