Tag: Dodgers Reds odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Cincinnati Reds (22-30) welcome the Los Angeles Dodgers (33-21) to Great American Ball Park Sunday for the final game of their 3-game series. First pitch is set for 12:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Dodgers vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 3-3

The Reds beat the Dodgers 3-1 Saturday and 9-6 Friday, closing as a +127 and +140 underdog respectively. Cincinnati had lost 5 of its last 6 prior to this 2-game win streak. The Reds lost 3 of 4 in Los Angeles from May 16-19. Cincinnati is last in the NL Central and is 27-25 against the spread (ATS) this season.

The Dodgers have now lost 4 in a row, all of which have come by at least 2 runs. Prior to this series, they dropped 2 of 3 to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Los Angeles still sits atop the NL West and has a 27-27 ATS record. The Dodgers are 13-9 straight up as a road favorite this season.

Dodgers at Reds projected starters

RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. LHP Brent Suter

Yamamoto (5-1, 3.17 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.06 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 in 54 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 6-4 home win vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks Monday
  • 2024 road splits: 3-0, 1.59 ERA (22 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 17 H, 1 HR, 7 BB, 26 K in 4 starts
  • Has never faced the Reds

Suter (0-0, 4.13 ERA) makes his 2nd start and 21st appearance. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 28 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 1 BB, 0 K in 7-2 road win over the Dodgers on May 16
  • 2024 home splits: 0-0, 2.12 ERA (17 IP, 4 ER), 14 H, 2 HR, 3 BB, 12 K in 10 appearances
  • Career vs. Dodgers: 1-1, 2.77 ERA (13 IP, 4 ER), 1.54 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 in 12 appearances (2 starts)

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Dodgers at Reds odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:18 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Dodgers -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Reds +168 (bet $100 to win $168)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Dodgers -1.5 (-122) | Reds +1.5 (+102)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Dodgers at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Dodgers 7, Reds 3

Moneyline

PASS.

The Dodgers, especially while riding a 4-game win streak, aren’t worth a play at 2x your money. The -200 price tag is just far too expensive. Similarly, the Reds are too risky given how they’ve performed throughout most of the season.

Skip any moneyline wager.

Run line/Against the spread

BET DODGERS -1.5 (-122).

The Reds are clearly going to their bullpen early by starting Suter, and their relievers rank 16th in the MLB in ERA at 3.94. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have covered the spread in Yamamoto’s last 4 starts and have covered it in 5 of their last 6 wins.

The Reds are among the streakier teams in the MLB as well and are 9-12 ATS following a win, which they are here. Expect the Dodgers to avoid a sweep and take DODGERS -1.5 (-122) here.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 9 (-108).

The Reds have gone Over in 3 of their last 4 games and are 5-4 O/U in their last 9 outings.

The Dodgers have similar mixed-bag results over the last few weeks. They have gone Over in 3 of their last 5 games and in 5 of their last 9. Considering those recent trends for both sides, take OVER 9 (-108).

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Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers (33-20) face the Cincinnati Reds (21-30) Saturday for the 2nd game of their 3-game series on the road. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is at 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Dodgers vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Dodgers lead 3-1.

The Dodgers lost the opener of the series on Friday 9-6, giving up 6 runs in the 5th inning. It was their 3rd straight loss after winning 4 in a row.

The Reds are 2-2 on their homestand. The win snapped a 2-game losing streak. They are 4-17 in their last 21 games.

Dodgers at Reds projected starters

RHP Walker Buehler vs. RHP Hunter Greene

Buehler (1-1, 4.05 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 through 13 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 0 BB, 7 K in 4-0 home win over Cincinnati last Saturday
  • Last 5 starts vs. CIN: 1-2, 3.30 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 33 K in 30 IP

Greene (2-2, 3.22 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 through 58 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: No decision, 6 1/3 IP, 2 R, 4 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 3-2 road loss to Dodgers on Sunday
  • Allowed 2 or fewer runs in 4 of his last 5 starts
  • 3 career starts vs. Dodgers: 0-2, 5.40 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 17 K in 16 2/3 IP

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Dodgers at Reds odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:25 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Dodgers -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Reds +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Dodgers -1.5 (+110) | Reds +1.5 (-135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Dodgers at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Dodgers 5, Reds 3

Moneyline

Buehler looked great in his last outing, throwing 6 shutout innings against the Reds last week. The Dodgers are 2-1 in his 3 starts since returning. He will likely be on a pitch count again, as he has not yet reached 80 pitches in a start.

The Reds are 2-8 in Greene’s starts.

They have allowed 6 or more runs in 3 straight games.

The Dodgers have allowed 6+ runs in 3 straight games.

The Dodgers have not lost more than 3 games in a row this season, so they should bounce back with a win.

But at -145 odds, your better bet is on the run line.

PASS. 

Run line/Against the spread

Ten of the Dodgers’ last 11 wins have been by 2 or more runs.

The Reds do suffer 1-run losses. Four of their last 8 losses have been by only 1 run.

The Dodgers are 12-9 ATS as road favorites. The Reds are 4-6 ATS as home dogs.

BET DODGERS -1.5 (+110).

Over/Under

None of Buehler’s 3 starts this season have surpassed 9 total runs.

Only 2 of Greene’s starts this season have had totals of more than 9 runs. His last 4 starts have not surpassed 9 total runs.

BET UNDER 9 (-105).

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Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers (33-19) and Cincinnati Reds (20-30) meet Friday for the opener of a 3-game series. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Dodgers vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Los Angeles leads 3-1

Los Angeles was routed 6-0 by the Arizona Diamondbacks Wednesday while failing to cover as a -302 home favorite. RHP Tyler Glasnow took the loss, pitching 5 innings with 3 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, and 6 K. The Dodgers have dropped back-to-back games.

Cincinnati lost 6-4 in 10 innings vs. the San Diego Padres Thursday while failing to cover as a +102 home underdog. The Reds have lost back-to-back games and are only 1-9 in their last 10 home games.

Dodgers at Reds projected starters

LHP James Paxton vs. RHP Graham Ashcraft

Paxton (5-0, 2.84 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.38 WHIP, 4.9 BB/9 and 4.9 K/9 in 44 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 2 K in a 7-3 win over Cincinnati Friday
  • Career vs. Cincinnati: 0-0, 3.27 ERA (11 IP, 4 ER), 11 H, 1 BB, 10 K in 2 starts

Ashcraft (3-3, 4.25 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.42 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 48 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 5 K in a 4-0 loss at the Dodgers Saturday
  • Career vs. Dodgers: 1-2, 3.95 ERA (13 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 11 H, 5 BB, 8 K across 3 starts

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Dodgers at Reds odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 11:26 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Dodgers -158 (bet $158 to win $100) | Reds +134 (bet $100 to win $134)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Dodgers -1.5 (-104) | Reds +1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Dodgers at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Dodgers 8, Reds 5

Moneyline

I would lean Dodgers (-158), but PASS and play the run line for a better value.

Run line/Against the spread

Los Angeles is 2-1 in its last 3 road games while Cincinnati is only 1-2 in its last 3 at home. The Dodgers have also won 3 straight games vs. the Reds, but the teams are 5-5 in their last 10 meetings and LA is only 1-2 in its last 3 meetings with the Reds in Cincinnati.

The Dodgers are the much better team and are slightly hotter entering this matchup. In addition, the last 15 wins by the Dodgers have been by 2 or more runs. Bet DODGERS -1.5 (-104).

Over/Under

BET OVER 10 (-110).

The Over has hit in back-to-back games for Cincinnati. For Los Angeles, the Over is 2-1 in its last 3 and 6-4 in its last 10. The Over has also hit in 2 of the last 3 Dodgers-Reds matchups in Cincinnati.

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Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with expert MLB picks, predictions and best bets.

The Los Angeles Dodgers (35-27) and the Cincinnati Reds (29-33) wrap up a 3-game series Thursday at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Dodgers vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Reds lead 2-0; Dodgers won season series 7-0 in 2022

The Dodgers have been outmuscled in The Queen City, losing 8-6 on Wednesday night and dropping the series opener 9-8 on Tuesday. Los Angeles has lost 5 of its last 6 road games.

The Reds have been on quite the roller coaster ride lately. Cincinnati won 5 in a row from May 26-31, it then dropped 4 in a row from last Thursday-Sunday, and now it has won 3 in a row coming into Thursday’s getaway day game.

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Dodgers at Reds projected starters

LHP Clayton Kershaw vs. RHP Graham Ashcraft

Kershaw (7-4, 3.25 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 in 69 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H (2 solo HR), 1 BB, 9 K in an 8-4 home win vs. the New York Yankees Friday
  • 2023 Road splits: 3-3, 4.70 ERA (38 1/3 IP, 20 ER – 7 HR) with 15 BB, 41 K and a .262 opponent batting average (OBA) in 7 starts

Ashcroft (3-4, 6.64 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.60 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 62 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 10 ER, 9 H, 4 BB, 2 K in a 10-8 home loss vs. the Milwaukee Brewers Saturday
  • 2023 Home splits: 2-3, 8.49 ERA (29 2/3 IP, 28 ER – 6 HR) with a .300 OBA in 6 starts

Dodgers at Reds odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:50 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Dodgers -225 (bet $225 to win $100) | Reds +185 (bet $100 to win $185)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Dodgers -2.5 (+105) | Reds +2.5 (-125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Dodgers at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Dodgers 7, Reds 5

Moneyline

The Dodgers (-225) will cost you more than 2 times your potential return, and that’s worrisome on a couple of fronts.

First, Los Angeles has been outslugged in the first 2 games of this series. Second, the southpaw Kershaw has struggled on the road this season, posting a 4.70 ERA with 7 HR allowed in 38 1/3 IP, as opposed to a 1.45 ERA and just 3 HR allowed in 31 IP at Dodger Stadium.

Toss in the fact Kershaw could be distracted by some upcoming promotion night controversies involving the team, and his speaking up about it earlier this week, and he could have a lack of focus.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

The REDS +2.5 (-125) are a strong play catching runs at home.

Cincinnati has been a heavy ‘dog at GABP in the first 2 games in this series and it won both outright. While Ashcroft has been an absolute disaster at home, the offense is playing with a lot of confidence right now.

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Over/Under

The OVER 10 (-110) is the lean, although double digits with a pitcher of Kershaw’s caliber on the mound is always a concern.

The Over has cashed in the first 2 games in this series and is 8-4 in the Reds’ past 12 games. The Over is 6-1 in the past 7 games for the Dodgers too, while cashing at a 13-3 clip in their past 16 overall.

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Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Cincinnati Reds (28-33) welcome the Los Angeles Dodgers (35-26) to Great American Ball Park Wednesday. First pitch in the middle game of the 3-game series is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Dodgers vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Reds lead 1-0

Cincinnati won 5 straight, lost 4 straight and has now rebounded with 2 straight wins. The Reds beat the Dodgers 9-8 on Tuesday to win in the debut of No. 1 prospect SS Elly De La Cruz, who went 1-for-3.

The Dodgers have lost 3 straight games and 4 of their last 5 road matches. They took an 8-6 lead into the bottom of the 9th, but allowed 3 runs to lose the 1st game of the series.

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Dodgers at Reds projected starters

RHP Noah Syndergaard vs. LHP Brandon Williamson

Syndergaard (1-4, 6.54 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.39 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 in 52 1/3 innings.

  • Last pitched May 31, allowing 5 ER in 5 IP vs. the Washington Nationals
  • Dodgers have lost 3 straight games in which Syndergaard has pitched; 4-7 in all his appearances this season

Williamson (0-0, 4.29 ERA) makes his 5th career start. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 4.7 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 21 innings.

  • The 25-year-old rookie’s is coming off a 2-ER, 6 2/3-inning effort against the Milwaukee Brewers
  • Reds are 3-1 in his 4 starts; 1st time facing Dodgers

Dodgers at Reds odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 10:55 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Dodgers -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Reds +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Dodgers -1.5 (-110) | Reds +1.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 11 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Dodgers at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Dodgers 7, Reds 6

Moneyline

AVOID.

The Dodgers are 15-16 on the road this season, so taking them to win at (-165) isn’t quite worth the extra juice. Similarly, the Reds are coming off a rocking win, and backing them, who are 16-17 at home, isn’t quite worth the (+140) wager.

Run line/Against the spread

BET REDS +1.5 (-110).

Cincinnati is 12-10 on the run line as a home underdog, and it is 28-18 on the run line as an underdog. It also has momentum, coming back from down 8-6 in the bottom of the 9th Tuesday.

The Reds are also 14-12 on the run line following a win. That said, the Dodgers are just 9-11 on the run line as an away favorite. The trends favor Cincinnati, so back REDS +1.5 (-110).

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Over/Under

LEAN OVER 11 (-115).

Neither team is starting its ace, and both teams having starting pitchers that have over a 4 ERA. The Reds have gone Over in 7 of their last 11 and are 33-27 on the total this season.

The Dodgers have an electric offense and are 36-24-1 O/U on the season. They have gone Over in 5 of their last 6 games as well, scoring at least 8 in 3 of their last 6.

Take the OVER 11 (-115).

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Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with expert MLB picks, predictions and best bets.

The Los Angeles Dodgers (35-25) and the Cincinnati Reds (27-33) open a 3-game series Tuesday at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Dodgers vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting of 2023; Dodgers won season series 7-0 in 2022

The Dodgers lost a high-profile interleague series against the New York Yankees over the weekend, dropping 2 of 3 games. Los Angeles has been spinning its wheels lately, going just 8-10 across the past 18 games overall dating back to May 16, although it is still tied for 1st place in the NL West with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The Reds snapped a 4-game losing streak Sunday with a 2-0 win against the Milwaukee Brewers. It was Cincinnati’s 1st shutout since May 26, and its 4th overall this season.

Cincinnati dropped all 7 meetings in 2022 against Los Angeles, and it is just 17-38 in the past 55 games against the NL West. On the flip side, L.A. is 11-9 against the NL Central this season, and 52-23 in the past 75 meetings against the division overall.

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Dodgers at Reds projected starters

RHP Tony Gonsolin vs. RHP Luke Weaver

Gonsolin (3-1, 1.77 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 0.90 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 in 35 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 2 K in a 9-3 road home win vs. the Washington Nationals last Tuesday
  • 2023 Road splits: 1-1, 1.35 ERA (20 IP, 3 ER – 3 solo HR) with 8 BB, 14 K and a .130 opponent batting average (OBA) in 4 starts

Weaver (1-2, 5.36 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.35 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 43 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 5 K in a 5-4 road win vs. the Boston Red Sox Wednesday
  • 2023 Home splits: 1-0, 5.64 ERA (22 1/3 IP, 14 ER – 7 HR) with a .310 OBA in 4 starts

Dodgers at Reds odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Dodgers -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Reds +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Dodgers -1.5 (-125) | Reds +1.5 (+105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Dodgers at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Dodgers 6, Reds 2

Moneyline

The Dodgers (-190) will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return, and that’s just a little too expensive for my liking. My personal limit for a singular moneyline wager is -180, and I wouldn’t even toss Los Angeles into a multi-team parlay at this price point.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

The DODGERS -1.5 (-125) are more reasonably priced on the run line.

It’s hard to imagine the Reds cobbling together much offense against Gonsolin, who has been next to unhittable so far this season.

The high-octane Los Angeles offense should have its way with Weaver, who has served up 11 home runs in just 43 2/3 IP this season.

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Over/Under

The UNDER 10 (-110) is the play, mainly because of Gonsolin’s ability to keep the ball in the yard. While Weaver has been knocked around pretty frequently, he still has a rather respectable 1.35 WHIP overall through 43 2/3 IP. While he allows plenty of homers, generally there aren’t a lot of people on base. This won’t be a pitcher’s duel, but we won’t get into double digits, either.

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Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Los Angeles Dodgers (42-25) look to complete a 3-game sweep of the Cincinnati Reds (23-45) Thursday at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is set for 12:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Dodgers vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Dodgers lead 6-0

The Dodgers put up 8 runs in each of the first 2 games of this series and their 22-13 road mark is 3rd best in the league.

The Reds have dropped 6 games in a row, which is just their 3rd longest streak of the season as they have also had a 9-game skid and an 11-game losing streak.

Dodgers at Reds projected starters

LHP Clayton Kershaw vs. RHP Hunter Greene

Kershaw (4-1, 2.08 ERA) makes his 8th start of the season. He has a 0.85 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 through 39 IP.

  • In 2 starts since returning from the IL he has allowed 3 ER in 9 IP with 8 K and 3 BB.
  • He is 3-1 in 4 road starts this season, surrendering just 3 ER across 23 IP for a 1.17 ERA.

Greene (3-7, 5.26 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 11.8 K/9 through 65 IP.

  • His triple-digit heat misses a lot of bats as he has recorded double-digit swinging strikes in each of his last 8 starts.
  • His fly ball tilt and hitter-friendly home park have led to some home run issues. He has served up 17 already, which is the 3rd highest mark in the league.

Dodgers at Reds odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:37 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Dodgers -230 (bet $230 to win $100) | Reds +180 (bet $100 to win $180)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Dodgers -1.5 (-130) | Reds +1.5 (+105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)

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Dodgers at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Dodgers 5, Reds 3

Money line

The Reds have lost 7 home games in a row and will certainly have their hands full against Kershaw in this one. The price is pretty steep, but the DODGERS (-230) are still worth a small play.

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Run line/Against the spread

The Dodgers have run off 6 straight against the Reds this season by a combined score of 42-13. None of the Dodgers’ games have been decided by a single run and just one contest was decided by 2 runs.

Go with DODGERS -1.5 (-130) as the best value in this game.

Over/Under

Kershaw has been excellent as usual when healthy and Greene has been better than his ERA would suggest. The total has gone Under in five of Cincinnati’s last 6 games against a lefty starter and UNDER 8.5 (+110) is the side to take.

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Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Los Angeles Dodgers (95-54) meet the Cincinnati Reds (77-72) Sunday for their three-game series finale at Great American Ball Park with the first pitch scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Dodgers vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Cincinnati took the opener 3-1. Los Angeles won 5-1 Saturday behind a masterful pitching performance from NL Cy Young front runner Max Scherzer, who had 7 IP with 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB and 7 K.

Dodgers LHP Clayton Kershaw makes his 20th start of the season. Kershaw is 9-7 with a 3.33 ERA (110 2/3 IP, 41 ER), 0.99 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 5-1 home win over the Arizona Diamondbacks Monday with 4 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 5 K.
  • Kershaw picked up an 8-0 win against Cincy April 28 with 7 IP, 4 H, 1 BB and 8 K.
  • vs. Reds on the current roster: 2.97 FIP with a .141 batting average (BA), .212 wOBA, .231 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 36.0 K% and 82.0 mph exit velocity (EV) in 86 plate appearances (PA).

LHP Wade Miley is Cincy’s projected starter. Miley is 12-6 with a 3.09 ERA (160 IP, 55 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 in 27 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 6-5, with 4 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 10 H, 2 BB and 1 K Tuesday at the Pittsburgh Pirates.
  • vs. Dodgers on the current roster: 3.93 FIP with a .268 BA, .326 wOBA, .457 xSLG, 21.7 K% and 89.6 mph EV in 106 PA.

Dodgers at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:14 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Dodgers -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Reds +160 (bet $100 to win $160)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -1.5 (-117) | Reds +1.5 (-103)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Dodgers 6, Reds 3

Money line (ML)

L.A. has so many clear edges across the board that I cannot even think about Cincy’s money line in this spot, but the Dodgers (-200) are a little too expensive.

Also, this is only Kershaw’s second start back from IL stint and I’d like to see some more of him before risking two times my return on a money line.

PASS. 

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET the DODGERS -1.5 (-117) because, if Kershaw knocked the rust off in his previous start, L.A. has a massive advantage in this matchup.

Cincy’s lineup is terrible against left-handed pitching: 29th in wRC+, 26th in wOBA and 24th-fewest home runs hit.

Additionally, we are getting “sharp line movement” toward L.A., which opened at a -107 consensus run line but has been moved up because early bettors hammered the DODGERS -1.5.

We don’t need vintage Kershaw because the Reds have been struggling at the plate recently. In September, Cincy’s lineup is in the bottom 10 of several advanced hitting metrics including wRC+, wOBA and WAR.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (+100) for a tiny wager because I’m much more confident in the Dodgers covering than the total.

Miley might not have the most eye-popping numbers, but he induces soft contact and ranks in the 94th percentile in EV, 82nd percentile in hard-hit rate and 78th percentile in chase rate. Plus, Cincy’s bullpen has been lights out this month.

The combination of Kershaw on the mound, Cincy’s struggles against left-handed pitching and sneaky strong pitching from the Reds equals a small bet on UNDER 8.5 (+100).

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Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (77-71) host the Los Angeles Dodgers (94-54) for the second of their three-game series Saturday at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Dodgers vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Cincy won the series opener Friday 3-1 as starting RHP Luis Castillo had 6 1/3 IP with 0 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 10 K and Reds SS Kyle Farmer‘s 6th-inning 2-run double put the game out of reach.

Season series: Reds lead 3-1.

RHP Max Scherzer takes the hill for the Dodgers. Scherzer is 14-4 with a 2.17 ERA (162 IP, 34 ER), 0.82 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 across 27 starts for the Dodgers and the Washington Nationals.

  • Last outing: Win, 8-0, with 8 IP, 1 H, 0 BB and 9 K against the San Diego Padres.
  • Scherzer beat Cincy May 25, 2-1, while pitching for Washington with 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 9 K.
  • vs. Reds on the current roster: 2.70 FIP with a .183 batting average (BA), .251 wOBA, .337 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 34.1 K% and 89.4 mph exit velocity (EV) in 205 plate appearances (PA).

RHP Sonny Gray is Cincy’s projected starter. Gray is 7-7 with a 3.80 ERA (120 2/3 IP, 51 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 over 23 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 2-0, with 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 6 K Sunday at the St. Louis Cardinals.
  • Gray lost at L.A., 8-0, April 28 with 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 11 K.
  • vs. Dodgers on the current roster: 3.01 FIP with a .202 BA, .250 wOBA, .292 xSLG, 23.9 K% and 87.4 mph EV in 109 PA.

Dodgers at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:50 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Dodgers -210 (bet $210 to win $100) | Reds +170 (bet $100 to win $170)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -1.5 (-125) | Reds +1.5 (+102)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Prediction

Dodgers 6, Reds 2

Money line (ML)

PASS with a heavy “lean” on the Dodgers (-210) just because they are the right side since L.A. has a significant edge in the three most important phases of the game (starting and relief pitching and hitting).

However, the Dodgers is on the fringe of my price range, and if I were to bet L.A.’s money line I’d most likely be including it in a parlay with another similarly priced favorite.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET DODGERS -1.5 (-125) for 1 unit because Scherzer has pitched well in Cincy, Gray has been less effective at home this season and there has been “sharp line movement” in L.A.’s direction.

Scherzer has won all three of his career starts at the Great American Ball Park. He has only allowed 1 ER in his 20 IP at Cincy’s home ballpark with a 35/6 K/BB rate.

In fact, Scherzer is dialed in as the Dodgers hit the home stretch of their season. Since joining L.A. at the trade deadline, Scherzer is 6-0 with a 0.88 ERA and a 14.4 K/BB rate and is now the favorite to win the NL Cy Young.

Furthermore, Gray has a losing home record with a 4.65 ERA (2.97 road ERA), 1.25 WHIP (1.12 road WHIP) and has given up 11 home runs in 12 home starts (five home runs allowed in 11 road starts).

Lastly, according to Pregame.com, L.A.’s run line opened with roughly a -110 consensus price-point because both sides of the market bet this line up.

Let’s follow the “pros” and “joes” on the DODGERS -1.5 (-125) before this price gets out of control.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-115) only because I’m fearful L.A.’s explosive lineup can do some real damage to Gray, and if this game is out of reach Cincy might use its less effective relievers.

That said, if Gray doesn’t get raked too badly, he’ll turn the game over to a Cincy bullpen that has pitched very well this month. For instance, Cincy’s bullpen has the best xFIP, SIERA and K-BB% in September. Also, both lineups rank below-average in wRC+, wOBA and WAR this month.

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Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Los Angeles Dodgers (94-53) travel to the Great American Ball Park Friday to begin a three-game series with the Cincinnati Reds (76-71) at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Dodgers vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Reds lead 2-1.

RHP Walker Buehler is L.A.’s projected starter. Buehler is 14-3 with a 2.32 ERA (186 IP, 48 ER), 0.95 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 across 29 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 5-4, with 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 5 K Saturday vs. the San Diego Padres.
  • Buehler got a no-decision against Cincy with 6 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 10 K in L.A.’s 6-5 loss April 27.
  • vs. Reds on the current roster (70 PA): 2.73 FIP with a .227 batting average (BA), .269 wOBA, .398 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 28.6 K% and 88.0 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Luis Castillo makes his 31st start for the Reds. Castillo is 7-15 with a 4.24 ERA (170 IP, 80 ER), 1.36 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: No-decision in Cincy’s 6-4 loss at the St. Louis Cardinals Saturday with 7 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 5 K.
  • vs. Dodgers on the current roster: (37 PA): 2.47 FIP with a .188 BA, .265 wOBA, .296 xSLG, 37.8 K% and 84.6 mph EV.

Dodgers at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:20 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Dodgers -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Reds +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -1.5 (+100) | Reds +1.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -108 | U:-112)

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Prediction

Reds 4, Dodgers 2

Money line (ML)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Reds (+140) because I like them on the run line and Castillo has been at his best in September throughout his career while Buehler’s September numbers have been subpar.

September is Castillo’s best month by winning percentage (62.5%), ERA (2.60) and WHIP (0.97) of any monthly split throughout his career. On the other hand, September is Buehler’s second-worst month by ERA (3.52) and WHIP (1.09) and worst by K/BB (3.2).

Ultimately, Cincy’s run line is the better play because the Reds are playing their standard fall baseball (5-9 in September) and L.A. is heating up as the postseason nears (10-4 in September).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the REDS +1.5 (-120) since there’s an obvious “line freeze” in the betting market but Cincy is just 3-9 ATS as a home underdog.

Roughly 95% of the action is on L.A.’s run line according to pregame.com, but the consensus price hasn’t budged, which is a red flag. You’d think oddsmakers would be making the Dodgers a little more expensive but sportsbooks seem to be enticing more L.A. action. Let’s jump on the same side as the house.

Over/Under (O/U)

GIMME UNDER 8.5 (-112) because Cincy has struggled at the plate in September, but has been the best bullpen in baseball this month and Buehler is a pitcher I’ve been high on for years now.

Cincy’s bullpen is leading the majors in xFIP, SIERA and K-BB% in September. However, Reds hitters rank in the bottom 10 of wRC+, WAR, wOBA and hard-hit rate over that span. Also, Buehler has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 23 of his 29 starts this season and has 25 quality starts.

Furthermore, there’s more money on the Under but more bets placed on the Over so the Under feels like the sharper play. That said, the Over is more expensive, which suggests the House is trying to goad more pro-Under bets.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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