2021 NFL futures: Odds, picks and predictions for most touchdown receptions

Analyzing the odds for the 2021 NFL leader in touchdown receptions, with picks, predictions and best bets.

With the NFL becoming such a passing league having talented receivers who can score touchdowns is something every team seeks. The Green Bay Packers certainly have one in WR Davante Adams, who led the NFL in touchdown receptions last year with 18. Below, we look at the odds to be the 2021 touchdown receptions leader, with NFL picks, predictions and best bets.

Adams hauled in 18 touchdown receptions from QB Aaron Rodgers despite playing just 14 games, leading the league by 3 over the next-closest player, Kansas City Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill. As the best receiver in football last season, earning All-Pro honors with Hill and Buffalo Bills WR Stefon Diggs, there’s no reason to believe he can’t follow it up with another huge season.

The tight ends shouldn’t be forgotten though. There are plenty of good ones in the NFL right now, led by Chiefs TE Travis Kelce, Las Vegas Raiders TE Darren Waller and San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle. Might one of them lead the league in touchdown receptions this season?

2021 NFL most TD receptions picks

Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday, Aug. 11, at 1:10 p.m. ET.

Green Bay Packers WR Davante Adams (+700)

Adams was borderline uncoverable last season, catching 115 passes for 1,374 yards and 18 touchdowns in only 14 games. The Packers aren’t a team that pounds the ball into the end zone when they approach the goal line which is why Adams is such a good bet to lead the league in touchdown catches. He had a league-leading 28 red-zone targets last season, catching 23 of them for 14 scores.

Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce (+1000)

Kelce is a rare high-volume tight end who saw 145 passes thrown his way last season. He caught 105 of them for 1,416 yards and 11 TD. He’s going to get plenty of chances to score and catch passes with the way Kansas City’s offense operates. I like Kelce as a better value than Hill at +750, which is why he’s my second pick here.

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Atlanta Falcons WR Calvin Ridley (+900)

WR Julio Jones is now with the Titans which opens the door for Ridley to be the No. 1 wideout in Atlanta – which he was when Jones was out last year. Ridley has been highly productive when it comes to scoring touchdowns in the NFL with 26 in only 44 career games thus far. His 20 red-zone targets ranked third in the NFL last season, although he caught only 11 of them.

Seattle Seahawks WR DK Metcalf (+1300)

Metcalf really broke out last season with 83 catches for 1,303 yards and 10 touchdowns. Metcalf is a big target in the red zone and also has the speed to score on deep passes but he has to share targets with WR Tyler Lockett. That makes him an enticing pick at +1300, especially with how often the Seahawks are likely to throw the ball.

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Long shot: Las Vegas Raiders TE Darren Waller (+3000)

Only one player in the NFL had more red-zone targets last season than Waller: Davante Adams. Waller was targeted 22 times in the red zone, and he caught 18 of those passes but only for 6 touchdowns. Even inside the 10-yard line he was targeted 11 times and caught 9 passes but scored just 6 times on those receptions.

If QB Derek Carr can give Waller more chances in the end zone, he might just lead the league in touchdown receptions.

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D.K. Metcalf issued a challenge to Tyreek Hill after seeing lopsided race against Aaron Jones

This needs to happen.

When it comes to naming the fastest player in the NFL, Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill is always at — or near — the top of any list that can be taken seriously.

Hill ran a 4.29 second 40-yard dash at his pro day before the draft, and he’s spent his NFL career basically blazing past opposing defenses. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t challengers in NFL circles.

This week, Hill raced Packers running back Aaron Jones during a camp appearance. Hill shared the video on his TikTok, and, well, the Chiefs receiver was able to easily win that race while dishing out high-fives to the lined-up campers.

That was too easy, especially considering Jones ran a 40 in 4.56 seconds at the combine.

The video had Seahawks receiver D.K. Metcalf thinking that Hill needed more of a challenge.

After seeing the video, Metcalf took to Twitter and issued a challenge for the two players to race next offseason. We’ll have to see if Hill takes him up on the offer, but that’s a race that would actually be fun to see.

Metcalf, of course, put up a respectable effort while failing to qualify for the U.S. Olympic Trials in the 100 meter.

Hill, though, would have finished around the middle of the pack in the 200 meter final at the 2016 Rio Olympics if you went off his high school time (!!!) in the event.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Lk_1BTd3M8&ab_channel=SportsOutlet

So, yeah, Hill probably still beats Metcalf, but it would definitely be worth watching.

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Touchdown Wire names Seahawks DK Metcalf 15th-best outside receiver

Mark Schofield of Touchdown Wire names Seattle Seahawks DK Metcalf the 15th-best outside wide receiver in the NFL.

Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett was named the third-best slot receiver in the game by Touchdown Wire, now it’s DK Metcalf’s turn for a little love.

Mark Schofield has ranked Metcalf No. 15 out of all the outside wide receivers in the league.

“Since entering the league Metcalf has been one of the most dangerous vertical receivers in the NFL, and 2020 was no exception,” Schofield writes. “He was targeted on 29 passes of more than 20 yards last season, according to charting data from Pro Football Focus, and turned those targets into 12 receptions for 480 yards and four touchdowns.

“The pairing of Metcalf with Russell Wilson, a great deep-ball thrower, is perfect for the Seattle offense.”

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Seahawks waive rookie undrafted wide receiver Tamorrion Terry

The Seattle Seahawks have waived rookie wide receiver Tamorrion Terry only a month and a half after signing him in May 2021.

The Seahawks waived rookie undrafted wide receiver Tamorrion Terry on Wednesday per the official NFL transaction report.

Terry had a solid career at Florida State University, but he suffered an injury-plagued final season and fell through the entire 2021 NFL draft before the Seahawks scooped him up as an undrafted free agent.

However, any hopes that Terry could assist the blue and green this season were quickly dashed as the team saw fit to release him a month and a half later.

The Seahawks look set at wide receiver, with Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf leading the way and rookie D’Wayne Eskridge waiting in the wings. Russell Wilson will still have plenty of high-caliber targets this time around.

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Seahawks guard Damien Lewis makes Shook’s All-Under-25 Team

Seattle Seahawks guard Damien Lewis joins wide receiver DK Metcalf on Nick Shook’s NFL All-Under-25 Team heading into the 2021 season.

Wide receiver DK Metcalf wasn’t the only Seattle Seahawk to land on Around The NFL writer Nick Shook’s All-Under-25 Team last week, offensive guard Damien Lewis also made the list.

Here’s what Shook had to say of the rising young star.

“Like Michael Onwenu, Lewis was a bit of a revelation in his first season,” Shook writes. “He started all 16 games, becoming one of two rookie O-linemen to play 500 or more pass-blocking snaps and allow three or fewer sacks in 2020 (joining fellow All-Under-25 Team member Tristan Wirfs).”

“Lewis was excellent as a road grader, earning the fifth-best run-blocking grade (83.5) among guards in 2020, per PFF,” Shook continues. “Lewis’ strong debut drew praise from the Pro Football Writers of America, who selected him as a member of their All-Rookie Team.”

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Late-season heroes: Wide receivers

Which wideouts were better later in the season?

Below shows the “points per game” ranking for running backs for Weeks 1 to 8, and Weeks 9 to 16 with a minimum of four games played. Overall shows the total points ranking for the season.  Points-per-game (PPG) and “Games” refer to Weeks 9 to 16.

While each one carries their own story of a unique season, the lack of Top-30 wideouts that were younger players is a bit of a surprise. The wideouts are very sensitive to their quarterback situations and occasionally weather later in the year.

Will Fuller (HOU / BAL) – What would fantasy football be without Will Fuller showing up like a rock star and then disappearing just when you finally buy into him.  He’s moved onto one of the worst passing teams (Ravens) who have better options to also to not target much. Fuller only played in ten games in 2020 and yet registered a touchdown or 100 yards in eight. According to drafts this summer, no one is buying into the oft-injured wideout now with the Ravens.

Mike Evans (TB) – This was nice to see since it was the first season with Tom Brady as the starting quarterback. Starting in Week 9, Evans scored six times to finish the regular fantasy season that included 100-yard efforts in Week 15 and 16 while making the playoffs. He gained 119 yards in Washington in the Wild Card Round and scored in the next two playoff games as well.

Diontae Johnson (PIT) – Johnson has quietly been outstanding, particularly in the second half of last season. Hampered with back and toe injuries earlier in the year, he missed one game and turned in minimal stats in three others. Starting in Week 9, Johnson finished the fantasy season with two 100-yard efforts and four scores along with at least eight catches in five of his final six matchups. The playoff loss to the Browns saw him catch 11 passes for 117 yards. Ben Roethlisberger’s arm left him with short passes last year – most of those went to Johnson.

Justin Jefferson (MIN) – This is what you dream of from a rookie wideout. He was already playing like a WR2 through Week 8 with a couple of monster home games (TEN, ATL) that helped his stats. Starting in Week 10, he went on a hot streak the rest of the way other than one week in Tampa Bay. The second half of the year saw him with  six of eight games sporting at least ten targets. All scores came in home games which should change this season, but he’s already a much-used outlet in the passing game.

Brandon Aiyuk (SF) – This is another rookie wideout of note who showed up better later in the year than many realize. Limited to a couple of catches in almost all the early games, Aiyuk became a difference-maker as of Week 7 when he caught six passes for 115 yards at the Patriots. He scored in four of the next five and gained 119 yards in the only non-scoring matchup in that stretch. He averaged  seven catches per game between Weeks 7 and 15.

Curtis Samuel (CAR / WAS) – It’s all academic now with Samuel changing teams, but the second half of last year saw him used more as a receiver than any time in his previous four years. He became reliable for five catches per game and now heads to Washington with a chance to be the No. 2 wideout behind Terry McLaurin.

JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT) – Similar to Diontae Johnson, Smith-Schuster was much more productive in the second half of the year with six touchdowns starting in Week 9. His yardage rarely broke 60 yards and he never managed a 100-yard performance, but he scored seven times in the final ten games that he played.

Marvin Jones (DET / JAC) – He changed teams as well, so the 31-year-old Jones resets his career beyond his prime. To his credit, he scored eight of his nine regular-season touchdowns starting from Week 8. Now he’ll have to elbow his way up the Jaguars depth chart playing with a rookie quarterback.

DK Metcalf (SEA) – It was bothersome to see Metcalf decline last year after a thoroughly impressive start. Through Week 8, he scored seven times and gained 90+ yards in seven of his eight games. He only managed three more scores in the regular season, and five of eight games held fewer than 62 yards. His initial four games all were only four catches each and yet never lower than 92 yards. His 25.1 yard average in the first month fell much lower when secondaries realized they should never allow Metcalf to get behind everyone.

A.J. Brown (TEN) – He was a touchdown machine in 2020, partially because the defense expected Derrick Henry to run it in. Brown opened the year injured but in Week 5 returned to string five straight games with a touchdown. His stats suffered later in the year since he caught more than four passes in a game just twice starting in Week 8. That seemed likely to change with Derrick Henry potentially not run into the ground this year, but the addition of Julio Jones throws that into doubt.

T.Y. Hilton (IND) – Hilton was never the same without Andrew Luck. Now t 31 years old, he isn’t likely to see any significant upturn with a different quarterback for the third-straight year. After flopping for the first eleven weeks of 2020, he surprised with four straight games with at least 70 yards and scored four times in that stretch. He became reliable for 70+ yards starting in Week 12, so keep tabs on him this season to see if he warms up with Carson Wentz later in the year.

Nelson Agholor (LV / NE) – He’s never been better than a mediocre wideout useful for fantasy depth, but he certainly came to life later last year in Las Vegas. His eight touchdowns were evenly spaced during the season, but he managed 100-yard games in Weeks 14 and 16 with a score in each. He was still more of an “every other week” kind of receiver and now lands in New England. While it is a positive that he comes off a career best season, it still wasn’t enough to induce the Raiders to stick with him.

Does Julio Jones have a preferred trade destination?

Former Alabama WR Julio Jones will likely be on the move before the start of the 2021 NF season, and it could be Seattle. Reports say …

Former Alabama wide receiver Julio Jones has spent all 10 season of his NFL career with the Atlanta Falcons. Even though he became a national star with the franchise, both sides have seemingly called the relationship quits for various reasons.

Multiple teams have reportedly contacted the Falcons, and there have been rumors of official offers having already been made.

Until a team’s front office comes out and announces a finalized, agreed-to deal, nothing is certain.

Dianna Russini of ESPN reported yesterday that Jones has spoken to Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson about joining the team. To further this connection, Russini claims the Seahawks have made contact with Atlanta’s front office to begin working on details of a trade.

It’s not often that a player that’s about to get traded has conversations with his potential future quarterback. So, to hear they not only spoke, but discussed the possibility of playing together, means that Jones probably likes the idea of heading out west.

An offense consisting of Wilson, Jones, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett would be a very scary sight.

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Better than average: Wide Receivers

Which WRs scored the biggest fantasy game on each defense?

The best measurement of a wide receiver is how they fared against a defense relative to all others that also faced that defense. That removes the element of schedule strength because the best game that the Rams allowed may only be an average one from a lesser defense.

The Top-8 fantasy performances against each defense were arrayed and each  wideout was recorded for how often they were in the Top-8, the Top-4 and Top-1 versus a defense last season.

Also see: QB | RB | TE

Adding up those numbers yields a BTA score since they are better than the average receiver that faced a defense. It also weighs the performances since a Top-1 also counts as a Top-4 and a Top-8.

Bottom line – this is about how well a player did against a defense relative to all the others in his position did when they faced them. It is far tougher to produce a Top-8 game as a wideout that any other position since in any given game, usually three or four wide receivers will play for an offense and elite wideouts receive far tougher coverage than any others on the field.

There was a lot of movement in this listing from 2020. Back then, the top BTA players included Michael Thomas, DeVante Parker, DJ Chark, Chris Godwin, and Kenny Golladay. They all declined for various reasons.

Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, and Mike Evans remained near the top.

Justin Jefferson’s phenomenal rookie year had him as the No. 5 wideout in this measurement. Diontae Johnson, Calvin Ridley, Stefon Diggs, and DK Metcalf rocketed up the listing from 2020. Even Brandon Aiyuk quietly put together an impressive rookie year.

These are the wide receivers that scored the most fantasy points allowed by a particular defense.

Again – there are at least three wideouts on every offense with fantasy points each week. Notching even one instance of the best game given up by a defense is impressive enough. Stefon Diggs shattered all expectations in his first season with the Bills.

Pro Football Focus ranks Seahawks offensive weapons ahead of season

Pro Football Focus ranked the Seattle Seahawks’ offensive weapons in their respective positions and most of them received high marks.

Pro Football Focus released their position rankings ahead of the 2021 season and ranked the Seattle Seahawks’ offensive stars highly in the process.

Quarterback Russell Wilson ranked fourth among all quarterbacks in the league, trailing only Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers. Chris Carson ranked eighth among running backs, and DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett slotted in at No. 15 and No. 22 among wide receivers, respectively.

The Seahawks re-signed Carson to a two-year contract this offseason, while Metcalf could set himself up for a lucrative extension if he performs exceptionally this upcoming season. Lockett is signed through 2025 and will play out the rest of his prime in Seattle for the foreseeable future.

In a strong NFC West, the Seahawks and their deadliest weapons must play up to their full potential in 2021.

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