Tag: DJ Moore

2024 Schedule Swings: Receivers

Which receiver gets a far easier schedule for 2024? Who experiences the worst drop in schedule strength?

The schedule strength for receivers is typically the least accurate compared to running backs and quarterbacks because two to four wideouts and a tight end are regularly used per team, and each varies in how they mix them.

That means comparing the schedule strength between 2023 and 2024 is also harder to apply to individual players. Only the extremes are likely to matter.

The average fantasy points allowed by defenses to receivers last year were applied to each offense’s schedule to determine their true schedule strength of last year and the same values are applied to their 2024 schedule. This includes considering both home and away venues separately for each defense.

The resulting fantasy point advantages are compared between years and the difference is their “swing points.”  The higher the Swing Points, the better their schedule is compared to last year. 

This analysis is very close to that for the quarterbacks, but a few differences stem from relying on running backs as receivers on some teams, as that skews the pass distribution.

See Also: Quarterbacks | Running Backs 

Best schedule swings

Drake London, Kyle Pitts (ATL) – This is all good news for a franchise that was among the worst in passing for the last couple of seasons. Refreshing with Kirk Cousins, a new pass-intensive scheme and now the most improved schedule from 2023 and it all is looking up for the Falcons.

Diontae Johnson, Adam Thielen (CAR) – Bryce Young was the first player drafted in 2023, but he had little help in any direction for a franchise that owned a minimal amount of passing weapons, a one-year offensive scheme that flopped and a bad schedule. A new set of coaches, upgrades with Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette, and a vastly upgraded schedule should all make a positive difference and get the Panthers’ passing offense on track.

DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze (CHI) – The Bears already have an embarrassment of riches with receivers DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet. They drafted the top quarterback in the 2024 class and get a nice improvement in schedule. The only downside here is trying to feed all those options.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta (DET) – The Lions already had one of the best passing offenses and now enjoy a solid rise in outlook with the No. 3 best schedule for receivers. With the offense already dedicated to piling up the receptions for St. Brown and LaPorta, the schedule only serves to make them even more reliable.

Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku (CLE) – The Browns offense needed a break and 2024 should allow the receivers to meet their potential with Deshaun Watson healthy and well-versed in the offense and the schedule finally well above average.

Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride (ARI) – The rookie Harrison and McBride already look like locks for a high volume of targets and they get a healthy Kyler Murray back. Throw in one of the top schedules after only average in 2023, and the needle is pointing up for the Arizona receivers this year.

About the same schedule strength

The bad news is that the Jaguars, Bengals, Dolphins, and Broncos all repeat their ultra-tough schedule strengths from 2023. Can they remain better than their schedule?

Worst schedule swings

Malik Nabers, Wan’Dale Robinson (NYG) – The Giants were already challenged with yet another shaky year of Daniel Jones and now the schedule is working against them. It is enough to drop Nabers another tick and hope he can survive a tough rookie campaign.

Quentin Johnson, Joshua Palmer (LAC) – The Chargers already swapped out coaches and dedicate their offense to running the ball more. And they stripped out all veteran talent from the wideouts. And they rely on what appears to be one of the weakest receiver units in the NFL. And now their receivers get to go against the worst schedule. Justin Herbert is an elite quarterback, but everything with the 2023 Chargers screams that a down year is about to happen.

Marquise Brown, Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce (KC) – This is less worrisome with an upgraded set of receivers and Patrick Mahomes playing in the same pass-happy scheme. If any team can weather a bad schedule swing, it is the Chiefs.

Mike Evans, Chris Godwin (TB) – The Buccaneers take a dive down from their previous No. 5 schedule strength for receivers but their scheme has a huge portion of the targets funnel through Evans and Godwin. They may not equal last year, but shouldn’t fall far thanks to volume alone.

Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp (LAR) – Nacua blew up with a historic rookie season and Kupp is always dangerous weapon when healthy.  This slide doesn’t help but the duo is one of the best in the league. They should still deliver even with the increased competition.

Fantasy Football Top-10 Repeatability: Wide Receivers

Take a step back and see how the Top-10 WRs change from year to year.

Wide receivers are the most plentiful position given that offenses use two or three on most plays. And value exists further out than it does on running backs as the only other position that requires more than one fantasy starter. That all said, a Top-10 wide receiver makes a difference, producing far better stats and consistent results each week.

see: Quarterback | Running back | Tight end

Fantasy drafters naturally raid the previous Top-10 in the first couple of rounds, and there’s even a “Zero RB” strategy where teams load up on wideouts and later collect whatever running backs that are still left. In the end, it’s all about picking the right players. This summer, a first round may hold more wideouts than any other position. That’s quite the transition from years past where maybe one or two may have been selected. Running backs and wide receivers have almost completely swapped their perceived value in the eyes of fantasy drafters.

Check out just how volatile the Top-10 has been for the last five seasons.

Chance of repeating Top-10 = 50%

Wide receivers have long been one of the most consistent players to repeat an elite year. Consider that Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, and Davante Adams are currently on four-year streaks and would have been joined by Justin Jefferson had he not been injured last season.

Whereas running backs are in constant flux, there is a lot of reliability with wideouts. Always bet on the talent with wide receivers, much more than their situation.

A look at two years back is just as revealing. Consider the Top-10 from 2021 compared to last year:

Hunter Renfrow (No. 10) was the only Cinderella in the bunch.The other three that fell were all injured. You could draft wideouts with a two-year old cheatsheet and still likely end up with a solid group for your fantasy team.

DJ Moore predicted to be Bears’ MVP for 2024 season

NFL.com’s Eric Edholm believes Bears WR DJ Moore will be the team’s most valuable player during the 2024 season.

The Chicago Bears have some impact players — both returning and new — on the roster who will help contribute to the team’s success in 2024.

But which player will be the most impactful as Chicago looks to contend for the playoffs in Year 3 under head coach Matt Eberflus?

NFL.com’s Eric Edholm examined one MVP for each NFL team heading into the 2024 season. And, as you can imagine, there are several to choose from. Be it on defense with defensive end Montez Sweat and cornerback Jaylon Johnson or offense with wide receiver DJ Moore or rookie quarterback Caleb Williams.

While all of those players were in contention for the spot, ultimately Edholm landed on Moore, noting his importance in helping elevate Williams during his rookie season.

I’ll choose Moore, even if he’s no slam-dunk selection. There’s even a case to be made that Moore’s 2024 numbers could fall below his career-high totals from last season (1,364 receiving yards, eight TD catches), given that the Bears added WRs Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze and RB D’Andre Swift. But if there’s an individual player who holds the key to helping unlock Williams more than Moore, I don’t know who it is.

In the 12 games Justin Fields started and finished last season, Moore averaged 91.8 receiving yards per game and caught half of Fields’ TD passes. Even with a stronger receiving corps this year, Moore figures to be a huge part of Williams’ development in his rookie season — and well beyond.

Moore is coming off a career year in 2023, where he had 96 receptions for 1,364 yards and eight touchdowns. Now, Moore leads a revamped Bears receiving corp also featuring Pro Bowler Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze, which gives the team one of the best trios in the NFL.

Earlier this offseason, Moore joked it’ll be a “race to 1,000 yards” between the three wideouts. All three figure to play a significant role in Williams’ development this season.

2024 record prediction: Chicago Bears

We take a look at the Chicago Bears and attempt to project where they will end up at the end of the season.

I cannot recall a time where there was more hype surrounding a team coming out of the draft with a number one overall pick. Granted, it was not the Chicago Bears own pick but rather one they picked up in a trade with the Panthers, which ultimately turned into the new hope of the windy city in Caleb Williams. Can Matt Eberflus steer the ship the right direction and take his new look offense to the playoffs?

The Chicago offseason was one of the most aggressive ones in the NFL with general manager Ryan Poles understanding he needed to set up his rookie quarterback with the best possible chance to succeed. Adding receivers Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze through a trade and the draft sets up Chicago with one of the best receiving trios in the league from day one, pairing that duo with stand out receiver DJ Moore. Adding running back D’Andre Swift to an already talented running back room is only going to help establish an offensive identity with the help of new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. On defense Chicago locked up their own extremely talented cornerback in Jaylon Johnson and added the likes of Kevin Byard in free agency to help lock down the deep portions of the field. This defense should be sneaky good under Eberflus.

This Chicago Bears team is set up to put up fireworks offensively and the already field a pretty talented defense that got way better towards the end of last season. If Caleb Williams is as good as everyone thinks he is, this team is going to make a playoff push in one of the most stacked divisions in football.

Record prediction: 9-8

3 Bears named to CBS Sports’ Top 100 NFL Players of 2024

The Bears have plenty of young talent, and three players landed on Pete Prisco’s list of the Top 100 Players of 2024.

The Chicago Bears have a slew of talent on the roster, which general manager Ryan Poles has spent the past three years cultivating in order to put this team in a position to succeed.

CBS Sports’ Pete Prisco unveiled his annual “Top 100 NFL Players” list, where three Bears players made the cut. And it’s no surprise all three returning veterans played a key role during the late second-half run in 2023.

Cornerback Jaylon Johnson topped the list for Chicago at No. 34. He established himself as one of the NFL’s best cover corners, and he also has a career-high four interceptions. He also has recorded 36 tackles and 10 pass breakups. Johnson earned a massive contract extension this offseason.

He had his breakout season in 2023, which earned him a new contract from the team. He gives them a true No. 1 corner and will team with Tyrique Stevenson and Kyler Gordon to give them one of the best trios in the league.

After Johnson, there was a dropoff until defensive end Montez Sweat landed at No. 73. He was acquried in a trade last year and quickly earned a massive contract extension. Sweat’s career-high 12.5 sacks ranked third in the NFC. He led both the Bears (6.0) and Commanders (6.5) in sacks last season, becoming the first player to accomplish that in NFL history.

He had a career-best 12 1/2 sacks last season playing for the Commanders and Bears. He was traded midway through the season from Washington to Chicago and quickly established himself as the top edge player on the Chicago defense.

Wide receiver DJ Moore rounded out the list for the Bears at No. 84. Moore is coming off a career year with Chicago, with 96 catches for 1,364 yards and eight touchdowns, after being acquired in the massive trade for the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL draft. While the Bears added two big names at receiver with Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze, Moore will still be the featured guy on offense.

He had a career-best 96 catches in his first season with the Bears. But the best thing about him is his big-play ability that is evident by his 14.2 yards-per-catch average.

When looking at the talent on the roster, there’s no reason these players — and some returning veterans and newcomers — won’t be able to crack this list at this time next offseason.

Caleb Williams, Bears receivers planning throwing sessions before training camp

Before training camp next month, Caleb Williams and Bears receivers will get together for a few throwing sessions.

The Chicago Bears have wrapped their offseason program following the conclusion of mandatory minicamp earlier this month. Now, they get a six-week break before returning to Halas Hall for training camp next month.

While the Bears will be on summer break, the offseason training doesn’t stop. Wide receiver DJ Moore told 670 the Score that rookie quarterback Caleb Williams and Bears wideouts will be getting together two or three times over the next few weeks for throwing sessions leading into training camp next month.

Williams got the opportunity to throw to his full complement of receivers for the first time during mandatory minicamp, which included Moore, Keenan Allen and fellow rookie Rome Odunze. Now, he’ll continue to build that rapport with his new cast of weapons before an important training camp kicks into gear.

Jaylon Johnson eager to go against Bears’ top 3 WRs in training camp

Jaylon Johnson is looking to elevate his game when he battles the likes of Bears WRs DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze this summer.

Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson cashed in on a four-year, $76 million contract extension this offseason, where he’ll continue to serve as a cornerstone for Chicago’s ascending defense.

Johnson is coming off a career year, where he was one of the NFL’s best cover cornerbacks, and he’s looking to prove he can consistently be a top player in the league.

Something that should help the fifth-year veteran is battling against the Bears’ potent wide receiver trio featuring DJ Moore, Keenan Allen (acquired via trade this offseason) and rookie Rome Odunze. And it’s a challenge he’s looking forward to given the talent in place.

“[Keenan] is a receiver that is unpredictable,” Johnson said. “As skillful as a lot of these guys are in this league that do a lot of great things, I feel like they are not as unpredictable, they are not as crafty as I feel like Keenan is. So being able to go against that every day, I think it’s something that can help me and DBs to get better. Then of course Rome Odunze coming in and finding his way, more so mentally, and then letting his instincts and his physical being take over after that. Of course, DJ Moore is DJ — he’s a playmaker so for me, every time I come out, especially for camp, I know I’ll be ready to go for sure.”

As they say, iron sharpens iron. And it’s safe to say these battles between defensive backs and receivers will be must-see during training camp this summer.

2024 Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule: Receivers

Cardinals and Bears looking at a sweet schedule for the receivers

The strength of schedule for receivers lumps wide receivers and tight ends together since each team uses the positions differently. While overall averages are interesting, no position is as sensitive to individual matchups as are receivers facing particular defensive backs. This makes the analysis less accurate than that for running backs and quarterbacks. The best receiver for an offense invariably draws the best coverage defender, if not more than one on most plays.

The analysis also considers the venue. There is a difference between how defenses respond either home or away, and that creates 64 “different defensive matchups” depending on where the game is played.

SEE ALSO: Quarterbacks | Running Backs

The average passing fantasy points allowed by defenses for receivers last year is at the bottom of this page.

Total Points

For fantasy contests and some leagues, only total points matter. Below are the total points for each passing offense according to their schedule using the averages allowed by those defenses in 2023 .

PHI CHI DET ARI GB ATL SF NYJ IND CLE HOU
781 774 768 766 754 746 745 745 743 733 731
CAR DAL LV NO WAS BUF BAL SEA NE MIN
728 726 724 723 723 719 718 717 716 713
TEN KC NYG TB PIT CIN LAR DEN MIA LAC JAC
711 707 703 701 700 698 697 693 690 689 687

 

Weekly Play

Three different views are below. Week 1 to 17 is the full-season fantasy strength of schedule. “The Dorey Rule” says to draft like the season only lasted the first six weeks for a hot start. Finally, Weeks 15 to 17 represent the most common fantasy playoffs. “Good” games were when they faced one of the top 22 venues from last year; “Bad” was when they played in one of the worst 22.

Wk 1-17 SOS Good Bad First 6 Gms SOS Good Bad Playoffs SOS Good Bad
CHI 5 8 3 HOU 3 4 1 CHI 3 3 0
ARI 5 8 3 NYJ 3 3 0 SF 3 3 0
DET 4 7 3 SEA 3 4 1 CIN 2 2 0
GB 3 6 3 ARI 2 3 1 CLE 2 2 0
SF 3 6 3 TB 2 4 2 TEN 2 2 0
NYJ 3 6 3 IND 2 2 0 ATL 1 2 1
BUF 2 5 3 CHI 2 3 1 LAC 1 2 1
NE 2 7 5 NE 2 3 1 GB 1 1 0
IND 1 5 4 DET 2 3 1 NO 1 1 0
BAL 1 5 4 WAS 1 2 1 MIN 0 1 1
ATL 0 6 6 GB 0 2 2 LV 0 1 1
CLE 0 6 6 SF 0 1 1 WAS 0 1 1
HOU 0 6 6 DEN 0 1 1 JAC 0 1 1
DAL 0 6 6 BAL 0 2 2 NE 0 1 1
TEN 0 6 6 BUF 0 2 2 DEN 0 1 1
CAR -1 5 6 MIA 0 1 1 NYJ 0 1 1
LV -1 4 5 PHI -1 1 2 BUF 0 1 1
NO -1 5 6 CLE -1 2 3 PHI -1 1 2
SEA -1 5 6 CAR -1 2 3 KC -1 0 1
PHI -2 5 7 ATL -1 1 2 BAL -1 0 1
WAS -2 4 6 NYG -1 2 3 ARI -1 0 1
MIN -2 3 5 KC -1 1 2 DAL -1 1 2
MIA -2 2 4 LAR -1 1 2 DET -1 0 1
KC -3 4 7 PIT -2 2 4 LAR -1 0 1
NYG -3 5 8 NO -2 2 4 CAR -1 0 1
CIN -3 4 7 DAL -2 1 3 HOU -1 1 2
LAR -3 3 6 JAC -2 1 3 MIA -1 0 1
TB -4 4 8 LAC -2 0 2 IND -2 0 2
PIT -4 5 9 MIN -2 0 2 TB -2 0 2
LAC -4 3 7 LV -3 0 3 PIT -2 0 2
JAC -4 4 8 CIN -3 1 4 NYG -3 0 3
DEN -5 2 7 TEN -3 1 4 SEA -3 0 3

Best schedule strength

DJ Moore/Keenan Allen (CHI) – The Bears feature the top quarterback from the 2024 draft and that throws risk into the equation even for an elite talent. DJ Moore was new last year and succeeded but now has the young quarterback and will share with Keenan Allen. Caleb Williams still needs to prove his talent, but he has two competent receivers enjoying the lightest schedule strength in the NFL.

Marvin Harrison Jr./Trey McBride (ARI) – The Arizona receivers also face the same best-case schedule for 2024, but unlike the Bears, their quarterback is the veteran, and the wideout is the top-drafted in his position this year. Trey McBride was a breakout second-year tight end who returns to the same quarterback, coaches and scheme. Marvin Harrison Jr. is in a very advantageous position with marginal competition from the other Cardinal wideouts and also faces the softest schedule.

Amon-Ra St. Brown/Sam LaPorta (DET) – This is an interesting development. The Lions return the same scheme and players including Amon-Ra St. Brown, who was No. 2 in receptions last year (119) and Sam LaPorta who was the top fantasy tight end despite being a rookie. Now, all that greatness from 2024 is pitted against the third-best schedule strength. The only marginal downside is that there are no light matchups left after Week 13.

Garrett Wilson/Mike Williams (NYJ) – Can it finally be the Jets’ year? Garrett Wilson shined regardless of the otherwise mediocrity at quarterback last season. He gets, assumedly, a healthy Aaron Rodgers and a lighter schedule to boost his 2024 potential. Mike Williams has to learn a new offense and return from his ACL tear but at least face a lighter slate of defensive venues. The rookie Malachi Corley could also figure in if Williams is slow to return to form.

Worst schedule strength

Courtland Sutton/Josh Reynolds (DEN) – As if the coin flip between Bo Nix and Zach Wilson wasn’t scary enough, the Broncos are looking at the cruelest schedule for receivers with just two light matchups. They have a stretch during the season where eight games contain six bad venues and no good ones.

Christian Kirk/Brian Thomas (JAC) – The Jaguars lost Calvin Ridley but replaced him with Brian Thomas Jr., which should be a wash, if only eventually. The only saving grace to their rough outlook with eight poor matchups is that they had one of the worst schedules last year, and 2024 may be bad, but it is slightly better than 2023.

Joshua Palmer/Quentin Johnston (LAC) – It was already scary enough losing Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. And bringing in a far more conservative offensive scheme that seeks to run more and pass less. But the Chargers have one of the weakest pair of starters going against one of the worst schedule strengths which include only three lighter matchups all year.

George Pickens/Van Jefferson/Roman Wilson (PIT) – The Steelers imported the Falcons offense when they hired OC Arthur Smith who is fresh from the crash-and-burn of the Atlanta passing game the last couple of seasons. Russell Wilson and/or Justin Fields learn that new run-heavy scheme with sketchy receivers outside of George Pickens and face an NFL-worst nine games facing the toughest venues.

2024 weekly grid 

Fantasy points allowed per game to WRs

These are the values applied to this year’s schedule to determine strength of schedule for wide receivers and tight ends.

@PHI @MIN NYG DET CHI TB LAC DEN @WAS WAS JAC PHI @CIN LAR SEA @TEN
62.2 58.6 57.3 56.6 56.2 55.9 55.2 54.1 53.9 53.2 52.1 51.6 51.5 51.5 50.6 49.9
@DET @IND @MIA CIN MIA KC @SF @LAR ATL CLE @HOU @TB TEN @GB LVR HOU
49.8 49.4 48.7 47.8 47.8 47.7 47.7 47.0 46.9 46.6 46.2 45.9 45.9 45.4 45.3 45.1
PIT @LAC @JAC BUF NE @PIT @ARI @SEA SF NO ARI @DAL MIN @DEN BAL GB
45.0 44.9 44.8 44.8 44.5 44.4 44.3 44.1 43.8 43.8 43.4 43.0 43.0 42.5 42.3 41.9
@LVR @NO @BAL @NYG IND @NE @ATL CAR @CAR @BUF DAL @NYJ @CHI NYJ @KC @CLE
41.7 41.4 41.2 40.5 39.9 39.5 38.8 38.4 36.8 36.7 35.5 34.6 34.3 32.9 30.2 29.2

 

Looking back on the Bears’ all-time trade in franchise history

The Bears trade of the No. 1 pick in 2023 has set them up for success in the long term.

The Chicago Bears did an incredible thing for their franchise just last year. General manager Ryan Poles pulled the trigger on a trade that redefined the franchise moving forward that will help them build a winner.

After earning the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL draft, as the worst team in the league, they opted to forgo selecting a quarterback and ride with Justin Fields. The result? One of the best trades in NFL history.

The Bears traded the top selection to the Carolina Panthers for a haul that has turned into wide receiver DJ Moore, right tackle Darnell Wright, cornerback Tyrique Stevenson, quarterback Caleb Williams and a 2025 second-round selection still on the way.

While the trade isn’t finalized yet — with that second rounder to be — it’s already one of the greatest trades in franchise history.

For one, Moore became their No. 1 receiver immediately. Even with inconsistent quarterback play from Justin Fields in 2023, Moore stood out as one of the best wideouts in the NFL.

Wright, selected at 10th overall in 2023, was one of the Bears’ best offensive linemen and looks the part of a franchise right tackle. It won’t be long until he is helping the Bears have one of the best offensive lines as a result.

Stevenson, selected at 56th overall in 2023, started immediately as a rookie and emerged as a playmaker in the secondary. With one year under his belt, Stevenson will look to build off a strong finish in his first season.

Carolina was the worst team in the NFL last season, which led to the Bears getting the No. 1 pick and selecting quarterback Caleb Williams. Chicago has never had a star quarterback that is considered elite. Williams may end up being that guy.

Getting Moore, Wright and Stevenson out of that trade is very good right off the bat. Add in Williams’ potential and you could be talking about one of the greatest trades ever made in NFL history.

As for Carolina, they selected Alabama quarterback Bryce Young, who struggled during his rookie year. C.J. Stroud, who was selected second overall by the Houston Texans, looks like the much better player. That is going to be a painful comparison for a long time if Young doesn’t take a step. That isn’t Chicago’s problem though as they got the best of the deal by far.

Photos from second day of Chicago Bears 2024 minicamp

The Bears conducted their second minicamp practice on Wednesday. Take a look at the action:

The Chicago Bears were back on the practice field for mandatory minicamp at Halas Hall.

Chicago conducted their second of three practices on Wednesday, which was open to the media and provided plenty of highlights, including quarterback Caleb Williams connecting with wide receiver Velus Jones Jr. on a deep touchdown during 7-on-7.

Here’s a look at some photos from Wednesday’s practice: