Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Yankees odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks (82-73) and New York Yankees (78-77) close out a 3-game series Monday. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is set for 1:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: tied 1-1

Arizona is in a tight battle for one of the final NL Wild Card spots. The Diamondbacks have greatly improved their chances by winning 6 of their last 7 games to move into the 2nd Wild Card sport and now have a slight edge on the rest of the pack heading into the season’s final week.

The Yankees were eliminated from playoff contention over the weekend and are 2-3 on their current homestand and 41-39 at Yankee Stadium this season. New York had not missed the postseason since 2016.

Diamondbacks at Yankees projected starters

RHP Merrill Kelly vs. RHP Clarke Schmidt

Kelly (12-7, 3.37 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 through 165 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 7-1 home win vs. San Francisco Giants Wednesday
  • 2023 road stats: 7-3, 4.10 ERA (79 IP, 36 ER) with 8.7 K/9 in 14 starts
  • Career vs. Yankees: 1-0, 1.69 ERA (5 1/3 IP, 1 ER) in 1 career start in 2019

Schmidt (9-9, 4.65 ERA) makes his 31st start and 32nd appearance. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 through 151 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 1 K in 7-1 home loss vs. Toronto Blue Jays Tuesday
  • 2023 home stats: 4-6, 4.14 ERA (82 2/3 IP, 38 ER) in 16 starts and 1 relief appearance
  • Had gotten back on track following an 8 ER blowup in mid-August, posting 26/5 K/BB and a 3.47 ERA over his next 4 starts, however, he’s surrendered 7 ER in 10 1/3 IP with an ugly 4/5 K/BB and 3 HR allowed over his last 2 starts

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Diamondbacks at Yankees odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:24 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Diamondbacks -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Yankees +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks -1.5 (+135) | Yankees +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Diamondbacks at Yankees picks and predictions

Prediction

Diamondbacks 5, Yankees 4

Moneyline

Kelly has had an excellent season, though he has been very up and down lately. He has recorded 11 or more strikeouts 3 times in his last 8 starts but has also allowed 7 ER twice along that span.

The odds are in Kelly’s favor against a Yankee offense that is bottom 6 in both runs scored per game at home and wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching. Furthermore, Arizona has a lot on the line, and siding with the DIAMONDBACKS (-130) is the smart move here.

Run line/Against the spread

Though both pitchers have shown to be prone to blowups in recent weeks, most signs point to this game staying pretty close throughout. Arizona is likely to come out on top, but the value on the moneyline is a little more appealing. PASS on this line.

Over/Under

The Arizona bats have come to life lately, plating 42 runs over their past 7 games, a span in which they have won 6 times. The Yankees, meanwhile, have tallied just 17 runs across their past 6 contests.

The final score is likely to end up very close to this total, but given the recent inconsistency of both starting pitchers, it’s best to make a small play on OVER 7.5 (-110).

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Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Yankees odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks (81-73) and the New York Yankees (78-76) play the 2nd contest of a 3-game series Sunday at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Yankees lead 1-0

The Diamondbacks suffered the 7-1 setback in the series opener Friday, and Saturday’s scheduled game was postponed due to torrential rains from Tropical Storm Ophelia. The weather forecast doesn’t look much brighter for Sunday, either, with a 75% chance of precipitation.

Arizona has dropped 3 of the past 4 interleague games, while dropping 4 straight games on the road.

The Yankees haven’t been eliminated from the postseason chase just yet, but analytics show a less than 0.1% chance of making the playoffs. OF Aaron Judge made history in the series opener, swatting 3 HR for the 2nd time this season, becoming the 1rst player in Yankees history to accomplish the feat twice in the same season.

New York has won 2 in a row, while going 8-4 in the past 12 games overall. In interleague play, the Yankees are 4-1 in the past 5 games, while going just 6-11 in the past 17 games at home.

Diamondbacks at Yankees projected starters

RHP Zac Gallen vs. LHP Carlos Rodon

Gallen (16-8, 3.60 ERA) makes his 33rd start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 197 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 5 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 8-4 home win vs. San Francisco Giants Tuesday
  • 2023 road splits: 4-6, 4.68 ERA (102 IP, 53 ER), 15 HR, .251 OBA in 17 starts

Rodon (3-6, 5.90 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 58 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 10 K in 3-2 road loss vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates last Sunday
  • 2023 home splits: 1-3, 6.59 ERA (27 1/3 IP, 20 ER), 7 HR, .279 OBA in 6 starts

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Diamondbacks at Yankees odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 9:07 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Diamondbacks -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Yankees +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks -1.5 (+140) | Yankees +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under (O/U):  8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Diamondbacks at Yankees picks and predictions

Prediction

Diamondbacks 6, Yankees 5

Moneyline

If this game is able to be played, and the weather holds off, the DIAMONDBACKS (-120) are the road play behind the 16-game winner Gallen. Rodon has just been too shaky for the Yankees (+100), especially at home. Plus, Arizona is pushing for a postseason spot, while New York is playing out the string after a disappointing season.

Gallen’s splits on the road are a little concerning, so this could be a close game, Rodon has been equally giving on his home field. Feel confident playing the slight road favorites.

Run line/Against the spread

The YANKEES +1.5 (-160) aren’t priced out of line if you’d like a little bit of insurance on the home team. Yes, the Diamondbacks -1.5 (+140) are battling for a wild-card spot, but the New Jersey native Gallen has a sub-.500 record on the road, while posting a 4.68 ERA in 102 IP on the road, as opposed to his 12-2 record and 2.45 ERA in 95 2/3 IP at home.

Over/Under

The OVER 8.5 (-105) is the lean, as Gallen has been giving on the road this season, and Rodon has been giving everywhere, regardless of venue.

The Diamondbacks offense has been humming along, too, going for 6 or more runs in 5 of the past 6 games, averaging 5.8 runs per game (RPG), which is bad news for Rodon and potential Under bettors.

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Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Yankees odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Yankees (78-76) welcome the Arizona Diamondbacks (81-73) to Yankee Stadium Saturday. First pitch is set for 1:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Yankees lead 1-0

The Yankees opened the series up with a 7-1 win Friday as +112 underdogs. New York has won 2 straight games, is 5-3 over its last 8 games and is 41-38 at home this season, however, the Yankees are still 7 games back of an AL Wild Card spot.

The Diamondbacks are 2nd in the NL West, 14 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers, but they hold the 2nd NL Wild Card. Arizona is 6-4 over its last 10 games and 38-38 on the road this season.

Diamondbacks at Yankees projected starters

RHP Zach Davies vs. LHP Carlos Rodon

Davies (2-5, 6.81 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.61 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 through 79 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 7-6 home win vs. Chicago Cubs last Saturday
  • 2023 road stats: 1-1, 8.10 ERA in 23 1/3 IP over 5 starts

Rodon (3-6, 5.90 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 through 58 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 10 K in 3-2 road loss vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Sunday
  • 2023 home stats: 1-3, 6.59 ERA in 27 1/3 IP over 6 starts

Diamondbacks at Yankees odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:23 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Diamondbacks +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Yankees -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-190) | Yankees -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.0 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Diamondbacks at Yankees picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 5, Diamondbacks 2

Moneyline

BET YANKEES (-125).

New York has won 5 of its last 8 games with all those victories coming by 2 or more runs. It will have a strong pitching advantage, and Davies has not been good on the road this season for Arizona either.

Arizona isn’t great after a loss and is streaky, going 35-37 following a defeat.

Couple the trends and differences in pitching and back YANKEES (-125).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Diamondbacks’ 5-game win streak was snapped by New York Friday, but they are making a strong playoff push and should be extra motivated to get back on track.

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Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 8 (-108).

The Diamondbacks have gone 1-1-1 O/U in their last 3 games and are 67-79-8 O/U on the season as well.

The Yankees are 1-1-2 O/U in their last 4 games and 68-79-9 O/U on the season. Both teams’ season-long trends suggest the Under, so back UNDER 8 (-105).

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Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Yankees odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks (81-72) kick off a 6-game road trip with the 1st contest in a 3-game set against the New York Yankees (77-76) on Friday. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is at 7:05 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting since Arizona won 3 of 4 in 2019

The Diamondbacks have won 5 straight games, sweeping their series against Chicago and San Francisco. They are 10-4 in their last 14 games. They hold a 2-game lead for the No. 2 Wild Card position. They trail Philadelphia for the top spot.

The Yankees are coming off a 5-3 win over Toronto on Thursday, snapping a 3-game losing streak. They are 7-4 in their last 11 games.

Diamondbacks at Yankees projected starters

RHP Brandon Pfaadt vs. RHP Luke Weaver

Pfaadt (2-8, 5.86 ERA) makes his 17th start and 18th appearance. He has a 1.42 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 86 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 0 R, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 6-4 home victory over the Chicago Cubs last Friday
  • Facing Yankees for 1st time in his career

Weaver (2-5, 6.77 ERA) makes his 24th start and 28th appearance, but just his 2nd start for the Yankees. He has a 1.61 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 114 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 6-3 road win over the Pittsburgh Pirates on Saturday
  • Has played for 3 teams this season

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Diamondbacks at Yankees odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:22 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Diamondbacks +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Yankees -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-190) | Yankees -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Diamondbacks at Yankees picks and predictions

Prediction

Diamondbacks 6, Yankees 3

Moneyline

The Diamondbacks are hitting well of late. In their 5-game winning streak, they have scored at least 6 runs in every game. The Yankees have lost 7 of the last 8 games in which they have not reached 4 runs.

New York is only 40-38 at home this season.

BET DIAMONDBACKS (+105).

Run line/Against the spread

The Diamondbacks are 82-71 ATS overall this season, compared to the Yankees’ 74-79 ATS mark. But betting the Diamondbacks +1.5 at -190 doesn’t make sense.

You can pass, but with Arizona having beaten their opponents by 2 or more runs in 4 of the last 5 games, you might like to play with a small wager of an alternate line of DIAMONDBACKS -1.5 (+155).

Over/Under

None of the Yankees’ last 4 games have hit 9 total runs but the 3 before that did while 5 of the last 8 for Arizona have reached at least 9 total runs. Also, the last 3 wins Arizona has had with Pfaadt on the mound have all reached at least 9 runs.

BET OVER 8 (-115)

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