The Minnesota Twins (58-54) welcome the Arizona Diamondbacks (57-55) to Target Field Sunday. First pitch is set for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Twins lead 2-0.
The Twins, who sit atop the AL Central and lead the Cleveland Guardians by 3.5 games, beat the Diamondbacks 3-2 Friday and 12-1 Saturday. They are 32-24 at home this season but 4-6 over their last 10.
The Diamondbacks have fallen flat and are just 2-8 over their last 10, the worst last 10-game stretch in the majors. Arizona is 29-27 on the road this season. It sits 3rd in the NL West and is 7.5 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers.
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Diamondbacks at Twins projected starters
RHP Zac Gallen vs. LHP Dallas Keuchel
Gallen (11-5, 3.41 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 through 142 2/3 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 6 K in a 4-3 road loss Tuesday vs. San Francisco Giants
- Career vs. Minnesota: 0-1, 2.57 ERA (7 IP, 2 ER), 4 H, 3 BB, 8 K through 1 start
Keuchel makes his 1st start. He had a 2.17 WHIP, 5.1 BB/9 and 5.8 K/9 through 42 IP in 10 starts last season.
- He was 1-0 with a 1.13 ERA in 6 starts at Triple-A St. Paul.
- Career vs. Arizona: 2-3, 3.86 ERA (42 IP, 18 ER), 35 H, 17 BB, 31 K through 7 starts
Diamondbacks at Twins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:50 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Diamondbacks -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Twins +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks -1.5 (+110) | Twins +1.5 (-135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Diamondbacks at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 4, Diamondbacks, 3
Moneyline
PASS.
Keuchel struggled last season, but he is still a former Cy Young Award winner, and the Diamondbacks have lost 5 in a row. Arizona to win outright at (-150), especially on the road, is far too expensive.
Similarly, backing Minnesota would be better served on the run line. Pass all around here.
Run line/Against the spread
LEAN TWINS +1.5 (-135).
Minnesota is playing at a higher level right now and has won 3 in a row and 4 of its last 5. The Twins are 32-24 on the run line at home, the 9th-best cover rate in the majors.
Arizona hasn’t been great with Gallen on the mound recently either, losing his last 4 starts. Couple it all together and take TWINS +1.5 (-135).
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Over/Under
BET UNDER 8.5 (-105).
The Diamondbacks have gone Under in 8 of their last 9 games. They have scored 2 or fewer runs in 4 straight games and haven’t topped 4 runs since July 26.
Arizona’s offense just hasn’t been there, and Gallen has been a key force for it on the mound, which should help keep runners off base. Minnesota is 52-55-5 O/U and is 2-4 O/U in its last 6 games. It has scored 3 or fewer in 4 of its last 6 as well.
Take UNDER 8.5 (-105).
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