Tag: Diamondbacks Mets odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

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The New York Mets (24-34) welcome the Arizona Diamondbacks (26-32) to Citi Field Sunday. First pitch in the finale of their 4-game series is set for 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 2-1

The Mets have closed as an underdog in 2 of 3 games in the series. While 2-1 straight up, they are 1-2 against the spread (ATS). New York won 3-2 on Thursday and 10-9 on Friday, but lost 10-5 on Saturday.

The Mets have lost 4 of their last 6 games, having been swept by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the series prior, and are 6-14 in their last 20 games. New York is 25-33 ATS and sits 4th in the NL East.

The Diamondbacks snapped a 5-game losing streak with the win Saturday. They are 4-5 straight up over their last 9 road games and 13-17 away from home. Arizona sits 4th in the NL West.

Diamondbacks at Mets projected starters

RHP Brandon Pfaadt vs. LHP Jose Quintana

Pfaadt (2-4, 4.16 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 67 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 5 K in a 4-2 road loss to the Texas Rangers Tuesday
• 2024 road splits: 1-2, 4.50 ERA (36 IP, 18 ER), 30 H, 3 HR, 8 BB, 34 K in 6 starts
• Has never faced the Mets as a starter

Quintana (1-5, 5.06 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 in 58 2/3 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 3 K in a 3-0 home loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers Tuesday
• 2024 home splits: 0-3, 3.45 ERA (28 2/3 IP, 11 ER), 27 H, 6 HR, 8 BB, 17 K in 5 starts
• Career vs. Diamondbacks: 0-2, 7.53 ERA (28 2/3 IP, 24 ER), 1.57 WHIP, 7.5 K/9 in 6 starts

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Diamondbacks at Mets odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:12 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Diamondbacks -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Mets +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks -1.5 (+140) | Mets +1.5 (-170)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -102 | U: -120)

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Diamondbacks at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 6, Diamondbacks 4

Moneyline

BET METS (+102).

The Diamondbacks have the 2nd-worst record in MLB following a win at 8-17. Arizona has lost its last 2 games as a moneyline favorite.

While the Mets haven’t outperformed expectations this season, they do have a strong lineup and have scored 15 runs in their last 2 games. Also, Quintana is coming off a solid start against the Dodgers in his last time out.

Back METS (+102).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

There’s not much value here. The Mets are too pricey as a run-line underdog, paying almost 2x the potential reward for this one, and the Diamondbacks are too risky as a run-line favorite.

Over/Under

BET OVER 8.5 (-102).

The Diamondbacks have gone 7-7 O/U in their last 14 games and have gone Over in their last 2, scoring 19 total runs. Arizona has allowed 5 or more runs in 3 of its last 4 games.

The Mets have gone Over in 3 of their last 4 games and are 30-27-1 O/U on the season. They have given up 9 or more runs in 3 of their last 4 games. With neither team having an ace on the mound, expect runs to keep coming in and back OVER 8.5 (-102).

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The Arizona Diamondbacks (25-32) and New York Mets (24-33) play game 3 of their 4-game series Saturday. First pitch from Citi Field is slated for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 2-0

Arizona tried their darnedest to comeback posting 4 runs in the top of the 9th but fell 1-run short, 10-9 against the Mets Friday night. It started with a 3-run shot from DH Joc Pederson, followed immediately by a solo home run from 1B Christian Walker before the Mets RHP Reed Garrett closed the game out. The Diamondbacks have dropped 5 straight games.

The Mets built a 10-5 lead by the end of the 6th inning with 4 RBI on 2 hits from RF Starling Marte. They got 2 RBI on 3 hits from 3B Mark Vientos, and another 2 RBI on a home run from DH J.D. Martinez. RHP Luis Severino notched his first win since April 17. After losing 8 of 9, New York has now won back-to-back games for the first time since May 7.

Diamondbacks at Mets projected starters

RHP Slade Cecconi vs. LHP Sean Manaea

Cecconi (1-4, 6.12 ERA) makes his 6th start and 7th appearance. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 in 32 1/3 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 3 K May 14 vs. Cincinnati Reds
• Has not faced Mets
• 2024 home/road splits: Road: 1-2, 4.03 ERA, 0.85 WHIP in 4 games, 3 starts; Home: 0-2, 10.80 ERA, 1.50 WHIP in 2 starts

Manaea (3-1, 3.16 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 51 1/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 4-3 victory over the San Francisco Giants Sunday
• Career vs Diamondbacks: 4-2, 3.42 ERA, 47 1/3 IP, 18 ER, 33 H, 14 BB, 37 K in 11 games

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Diamondbacks at Mets odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:15 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Diamondbacks +114 (bet $100 to win $114) | Mets -134 (bet $134 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-188) | Mets -1.5 (+155)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -106 | U: -114)

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Diamondbacks at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 5, Diamondbacks 3

Moneyline.

PASS.

I like the Mets (-134) getting their 3rd-straight win Saturday, but I’m not interesting in paying that juice. I’ll keep my wager to the run line.

Run line/Against the spread

BET METS -1.5 (+155).

Friday night’s 9 runs from the Diamondbacks was the same amount of runs they had scored in the last 5 games combined. Arizona is struggling to get anything going, and Manaea has not allowed more than 3 ER in any of his last 5 starts against the Diamondbacks. He has also not taking a loss since April 13.

Over/Under

PASS.

I just don’t see an edge to want to make a bet either way. The teams are 5-4-1 against the Over in their last 10 meetings.

Instead, I’ll take SEAN MANAEA UNDER 16.5 OUTS RECORDED (-120). He has been your prototypical 5-and-dive pitcher with 5 IP or fewer in 5 of 7 GS. The D-Backs don’t strike out a lot and work counts.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks (25-30) and New York Mets (22-33) meet Friday as they continue a 4-game set at Citi Field. First pitch is slated for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 1-0

Arizona dropped Thursday’s series lid-lifter 3-2, and the Diamondbacks are just 1-8 across their last 9 games against the Mets.

New York won the opener despite being held under 4 runs for the 5th time in their last 6 games. Over that span, New York has registered a paltry .574 OPS.

Diamondbacks at Mets projected starters

LHP Jordan Montgomery vs. RHP Luis Severino

Montgomery (3-2, 4.69 ERA) is lined up for his 8th start. He has a 1.41 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 5.4 K/9 in 40 1/3 IP.

• Last outing: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 3-2 win vs. Miami Marlins Saturday
• Career vs. Mets: 0-3, 8.40 ERA (15 IP, 14 ER), 23 H, 7 BB, 21 K in 4 starts
• Has a 2.70 ERA on the road this season and owns a 3.12 road mark since 2022

Severino (2-2, 3.22 ERA) is making his 11th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 4 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 58 2/3 IP.

• Last outing: No-decision, 7 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 7-2 loss vs. San Francisco Giants Saturday
• Has never faced the Diamondbacks

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Diamondbacks at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:24 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Diamondbacks -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Mets -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks -1.5 (+165) | Mets +1.5 (-200)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Diamondbacks at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Diamondbacks 5, Mets 4

Moneyline

New York has not won back-to-back games since May 6-7, and the Metropolitans have won 2 in a row just once since April 20.

The Snakes have a 10-6 stretch which is not too far back in the rearview mirror. Arizona logged that mark –while posting a .739 OPS while going 6-3 in 9 road games — from May 5-22.

Left-handers turn the Mets into the lesser side of their platoon numbers (.658 OPS vs. southpaws); New York is just 4-9 against lefty starters. Montgomery has been hurt by a .318 batting average on balls in play. His ERA history against the Mets is misleading: he’s held current New York bats to an aggregate .662 OPS (ESPN).

Severino is coming off a 103-pitch effort in his last. His only other 100-pitch game this season was followed by a clunker the next time out, and he’s backed by a bullpen that figures to be under a fatigue caution flag, especially at the back end.

FanDuel Sportsbook has the value price here: ARIZONA (-102) is a play worthy of an account login.

Run line/Against the spread

A slight uptick in the return for Arizona minus a cushion would be enticing. But both clubs have played more 1-run games than average, and despite some pressure on the Over, these offenses could fall into a low-scoring pitcher’s duel for a 2nd straight night.

PASS.

Over/Under

The Over is 3-1 across the last 4 series meetings.

Severino’s ERA is tamped down by a friendly .235 BABIP. Both clubs have thus far played schedules tilting toward better-than-average pitching. Their offenses are not great, but they’re likely better than what shows in their surface numbers to date. And the Mets have a woeful .619 OPS at home, but that’s a number artificially held in place by a .246 BABIP.

On an evening with an outward-blowing breeze in the forecast, TAKE THE OVER 7.5 (+100).

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The Arizona Diamondbacks (25-30) and New York Mets (22-33) open a 4-game set at Citi Field Thursday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Mets won 6-1 in 2023

New York is in free-fall mode after getting swept by the Los Angeles Dodgers with a 10-3 loss Wednesday, failing to cash as a (+105) home underdog. It was the 8th defeat in 9 games for the Mets, and RHP Jorge Lopez vented his frustration by tossing his glove into the stands after getting ejected.

Arizona lost both games in the 2-game World Series rematch against the Texas Rangers, 4-2 on Tuesday and 6-1 on Wednesday. Over the last 30 days, Arizona is tied with the Washington Nationals at the bottom of the list for HRs (20), as well as 2nd-last in RBIs (87) and walks (66) in the National League.

Diamondbacks at Mets projected starters

RHP Zac Gallen vs. RHP Christian Scott

Gallen (5-4, 3.12 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 57 2/3 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 3-0 setback to Miami Marlins Friday
• Sports career 3.60 ERA on the road (357 1/3 IP, 143 ER) in 63 starts vs. a 2.82 home ERA (367 2/3 IP, 115 ER) in 62 starts

Scott (0-2, 3.97 ERA) makes his 5th start. The rookie has a 1.10 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 22 2/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 8-7 loss to San Francisco Giants Friday
• Has not been backed by his offense: His 2.38 run support/9 is 5th-lowest among 85 NL starting pitchers

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Diamondbacks at Mets odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:20 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Diamondbacks -124 (bet $124 to win $100) | Mets +106 (bet $100 to win $106)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks -1.5 (+150) | Mets +1.5 (-182)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -104 | U: -118)

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Diamondbacks at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Arizona 4, New York 2

Moneyline

BET ARIZONA (-124).

The Mets enter Thursday with the 3rd-lowest team OBP (.292) in MLB in May, and now 1B Pete Alonso‘s status is in question. The Mets slugger left the series finale vs. L.A. early on after getting plunked in his hand by LHP James Paxton, another blow to this floundering team that just saw its closer RHP Edwin Diaz go on the IL with shoulder impingement.

The Dbacks offense was lackluster Wednesday to say the least, but last year’s NL Rookie of the Year CF Corbin Carroll delivered 3 hits, including a triple. If the 23-year-old can get on base a few times once again, he should be able to steal against Mets catchers, who allow the most opponent stolen bases per game in MLB.

Run line

PASS.

The Diamondbacks have dropped 4 of their last 5 games overall, so I would rather not chase the plus money in this case.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 7 (-118).

Scott dominated in Triple-A to start 2024 and retired 12 straight in his MLB debut, generating 18 whiffs. He should be able to eat innings and limit any sort of damage done by Dbacks HR and hits leader 2B Ketel Marte, who is 0-20 in his last 5 games.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks (76-71) and New York Mets (67-78) wrap up a 4-game set Thursday at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 5-1

The Diamondbacks lost 7-1 as -154 favorites in the 3rd game of the series Wednesday. Arizona has lost 3 of its last 4 outings and is tied with the Cincinnati Reds for the final NL Wild Card spot.

Mets DH Mark Vientos hit a 2-run HR in the 6th inning as they improved to 18-4 in their last 22 games vs. the Diamondbacks. The Mets have won 3 of their last 4 outings after snapping a 3-game losing skid Sunday.

Diamondbacks at Mets projected starters

RHP Merrill Kelly vs. RHP Kodai Senga

Kelly (11-6, 3.16 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 154 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 5 BB, 6 K in 3-2 road victory in 10 innings vs. Chicago Cubs Saturday
• 2023 road stats: 7-2, 3.53 ERA (74 IP, 29 ER) in 13 starts
• Career vs. Mets: 1-3, 3.81 ERA (26 IP, 11 ER) in 4 starts

Senga (10-7, 3.07 ERA) makes his 27th start. The rookie has a 1.23 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 in 149 1/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 5 K in 5-2 road loss vs. Minnesota Twins Friday
• 2023 home stats: 5-3, 2.52 ERA (82 IP, 23 ER) in 14 starts
• Career vs. Diamondbacks: Win, 8 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 12 K in 1 start, a 2-1 road win on July 5

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Diamondbacks at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:30 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Diamondbacks +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Mets -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-210) | Mets -1.5 (+170)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Diamondbacks at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 3, Diamondbacks 2

Moneyline

The METS (-120) have owned the Diamondbacks this season, and Senga’s splits at home are much better than Kelly’s on the road. The Mets seem to be playing better now that the pressure of meeting preseason expectations has been lifted off their shoulders and I expect them to take this series Thursday with Senga is on the mound at home.

BET METS (-120).

Run line/Against the spread

It’s unlikely that the Mets will beat the Diamondbacks by multiple runs in 3 straight games. Arizona +1.5 (-210) will probably hit, but there’s no need to pay the higher price on the run line when New York ML is the better play.

PASS. Bet the moneyline and/or the total instead.

Over/Under

The Under is 41-25 (62.1%) this season when the Mets are coming off a win, according to TeamRankings.com. Kelly and Senga are both capable starters, and I believe they’ll pitch well enough to keep this game under the low total.

LEAN UNDER 7 (+100).

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