Tag: Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles odds predictions pick betting line spread

The Detroit Tigers (55-60) seek a second straight win Wednesday against the Baltimore Orioles (38-73). First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Let’s analyze the lines around the Tigers vs. Orioles odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Tigers LHP Tarik Skubal (7-10, 4.32 ERA) is making his 21st start and 23rd appearance. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 through 110 1/3 IP.

• Skubal has really cut down on the walks lately, allowing a total of 4 free passes in his last six starts spanning 32 2/3 IP. However, home runs have been on the rise over that time. He has allowed 9 through that stretch including 3 against Baltimore July 30th.
• Skubal has been a much better pitcher at home than on the road since debuting last year. He has posted a 6.25 ERA and 3.4 HR/9 on the road despite a .255 BABIP, compared to 3.46 ERA and 1.3 HR/9 at home.

Orioles RHP Matt Harvey (6-10, 6.13 ERA) left his last outing early after tweaking his knee but has been cleared to make his 23rd start of the season. He has a 1.53 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9 through 98 1/3 IP.

• Prior to his last start when he surrendered 2 ER in 4 IP, Harvey had tossed three consecutive scoreless outings, including a 6 IP, 5 K performance against Detroit. He struck out just 11 batters in 18 1/3 IP across that stretch while benefiting greatly from a .189 BABIP.
• Harvey hasn’t been good home or away this season but has at least kept the ball in the park on the road. He has posted an ugly 6.75 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 and 1.7 HR/9 through 10 home starts.

Tigers at Orioles odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12 p.m. ET.

• Money line: Tigers -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Orioles +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
• Against the spread/ATS: Tigers -1.5 (+125) | Orioles +1.5 (-160)
• Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Prediction

Orioles 6, Tigers 5

Money line (ML)

The Orioles have lost six games in a row and are a league-worst 17-35 at home this season. Harvey has gotten better results lately, although the skills have remained pretty weak.

Skubal has really been hurt by the long ball on the road and faces a tough test in a Baltimore offense that is 4th in wRC+ vs lefties. Neither starting pitcher is a great bet to have a great deal of success in this game but given Skubal’s road woes and the tough matchup we’ll lean slightly to ORIOLES (+100).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

This sets up to be a pretty close game, one in which both offenses score their fair share of runs. There doesn’t seem to be much value on either side of the run line so PASS.

Over/Under (O/U)

Skubal has been bad on the road and is facing a team that hits left-handed pitching very well. The Tigers should also get to Harvey whose recent success hasn’t been supported by his skills. Though the final score was 4-3 when these pitchers squared off in late July, OVER 9.5 (-130) is a great play here.

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The Detroit Tigers (54-60) are in Maryland Tuesday to start a three-game set with the Baltimore Orioles (38-72). First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Tigers vs. Orioles odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Tigers RHP Casey Mize (6-6, 3.57 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 through 116 IP.

• Allowed 1 run (0 earned) over 7 innings with 2 BB and 2 K against the Orioles July 29.
• Has a 3.48 ERA through four starts since the All-Star break.

Orioles LHP Keegan Akin (0-5, 7.66 ERA) makes his ninth start and 16th appearance. He has a 1.74 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 through 51 2/3 IP.

• Making his first start since July 16 and just his third start since June 26.
• Is 0-5 with an 8.82 ERA and 1.99 WHIP over 33 2/3 IP across eight starts.

Tigers at Orioles odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:30 p.m. ET.

• Money line: Tigers -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Orioles +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
• Against the spread/ATS: Tigers -1.5 (+120) | Orioles +1.5 (-150)
• Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

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Prediction

Tigers 6, Orioles 3

Money line (ML)

The Tigers have had their share of difficulties on the road this season but Mize hasn’t been the reason and the Orioles are no formidable opponent. Mize is 3-3 both at home and on the road while posting a nearly identical ERA and slightly better WHIP and K/9 numbers away from Comerica Park.

Detroit hits left-handed pitchers at a very middle of the pack rate, but that’s still considerably better than how Baltimore hits righties; the Orioles rank 28th in OPS and 25th in WRC+ against right-handers. Furthermore, Akin is not a southpaw to be feared as indicated by his numbers as a starter above.

Akin appeared in just one game of the recent Tigers-Orioles series and lasted just 1/3 IP while giving up 2 hits and generating just one swinging strike across the three batters he faced.

Be leery of this line getting more juiced up as we near first pitch but at the current number you can back DETROIT (-130)

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

This game marks just the second time this season the Tigers will be an away favorite, but Baltimore has lots of experience as a home underdog and is 17-27 ATS.

The two teams split a four-game series as July turned to August, but both of the Tigers’ wins were by 4 runs. It’s not inconceivable they get out to a good start against Akin and even if they don’t run it up on him they should get to the bullpen early, as he pitched beyond the fifth inning in only one of his starts.

The Orioles bullpen is dead last in the league with a -0.9 WAR, 9.66 ERA and 6.29 xFIP over the last two weeks.

The “LEAN” here is to the TIGERS -1.5 (+120).

Over/Under (O/U)

The 10.5-run total is a hefty number to overcome, especially considering the Tigers are 5-14-2 O/U in Mize’s starts.

While there is a decent wind out to left field and things are expected to be balmy tonight in Baltimore it still feels like a lot of pressure on the Tigers to produce the bulk of this action.

It may be too much to ask from a team averaging just 3.8 runs per game on a .674 OPS over its last 10 games.

BACK the UNDER 10.5 (-120)

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Andrew Reid on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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