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ALDS Game 5: Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians meet Saturday to wrap up their best-of-5 ALDS and determine who will move on to face the New York Yankees in the ALCS. Saturday’s 1st pitch at Progressive Field is slated for 1:08 p.m. ET  (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Tigers vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Series: Tied 2-2 | Regular-season series: Cleveland won 7-6

Detroit took Games 2 and 3 of this series, but Cleveland forced this Game 5 with a 5-4 victory Thursday in Detroit. The Tigers are looking to avoid losing back to bac games for just the 2nd time since Sept. 5. Detroit’s late-season surge and early playoff run has included 15 wins in the club’s last 20 road games.

Cleveland is 1-3 over its last 4 home games, but that stands as more of an anomaly when viewed against the Guardian’s 50-30 regular-season mark at Progressive Field. Cleveland has slashed a mere .214/.270/.336 (.605 OPS) in this series and owns a lackluster .660 OPS since Sept. 4.

Tigers at Guardians projected starters

LHP Tarik Skubal vs. LHP Matthew Boyd

Skubal (18-4, 2.39 ERA) made 31 starts in the regular season. He authored a 0.92 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 across 192 innings.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 8 K in 3-0 win at Guardians Monday
  • Career vs. Guardians (regular season): 2-2, 3.46 ERA (41 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 K
  • Per ESPN, has held current Cleveland batters to an aggregate .564 OPS
  • Has pitched 13 scoreless innings in the 2024 postseason; dating back to Sept. 12, has allowed 2 runs over his last 31 innings

Boyd (2-2, 2.72 ERA) made 8 starts in the regular season. He logged a 1.13 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 39 2/3 innings.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 3-0 home loss vs. Tigers Monday
  • Career vs. Tigers (regular season): 0-0, 0.00 ERA (4 IP), 0 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 2 relief outings in 2022
  • Pitched for the Tigers from 2015-23
  • Began season on IL with elbow injury before making his Cleveland debut Aug. 13

Tigers at Guardians odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Friday at 9:15 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Tigers -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Guardians +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Tigers -1.5 (+155) | Guardians +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Tigers at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Tigers 5, Guardians 2

Moneyline

Skubal is the talent difference in this matchup. And while Boyd-plus-Cleveland bullpen is not a bad counter, the Detroit port-sider has the stamina, stuff, and competitiveness to carry a large part of this eventual result.

The lefty-lefty matchup is a net gain for Cleveland: Detroit has a bottom-5 offense against southpaws. But the Bengals are going just slightly better with the bats. That hasn’t always popped in this ALDS that has seen them go 4-for-34 with runners in scoring position. But the Tigers are doing what they need to do to create traffic on the bases.

The margin here is razor-thin, but DETROIT (-120) is the value side of this contest.

Run line/Against the spread

More juice is added to the equation here, and the betting value is negated. PASS.

Over/Under

The run total here is ultra-low because of the particulars on the mound, including a lockdown Guardians relief corps. But there are enough hidden scoring upside factors that the Over is a lean.

Much will be made about both starting hurlers going on 4-days’ rest. Yes, their numbers take a slight hit when looking at career splits, but in Skubal’s case, he has pitched frequently on such rest in 2024 and his 2023-24 numbers on short rest show marked improvement over his earlier years.

Where a little offense comes into the equation would be in Cleveland potentially seeing Skubal a 3rd time through the order. The Guardians have exhibited a better-than-average uptick in those situations. Add in both teams hitting change-ups with decent production (both starters usually feature a lot of changes) and the Tigers having improved numbers against fly-ball pitchers (which Boyd is), and there are enough reasons to tilt this one toward the OVER 6 (-105).

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ALDS Game 4: Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Cleveland Guardians visit the Detroit Tigers Thursday for Game 4 in their best-of-5 ALDS. First pitch from Comerica Park is set for 6:08 p.m. ET (TNT/Max). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Guardians vs. Tigers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Playoff series: Detroit leads 2-1

Detroit took the series lead with a 3-0 win Wednesday while covering as a +105 home underdog. The Tigers used 6 pitchers Wednesday with LHP Brant Hurter (3 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 1 K) getting the win. It was the 2nd straight 3-0 shutout win and the 1st time in Detroit’s history it had 2 shutouts in a single playoff series.

Cleveland has gone 20 innings without scoring since its 7-0 win in the opener of this series. The Guardians left 8 runners on base in Wednesday’s loss.

Guardians at Tigers projected starters

RHP Tanner Bibee vs. TBD

Bibee (12-8, 3.47 ERA) made 31 starts in the regular season. He had a 1.12 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 173 2/3 IP.

  • Career vs. Detroit: 1-3, 5.28 ERA (30 2/3 IP, 18 ER), 31 H, 9 BB, 27 K in 6 starts
  • Only career postseason start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K in Saturday’s series opener vs. Detroit

No Detroit pitcher announced at time of publishing. RHP Reese Olson (4-8, 3.58 ERA) is a possibility. He pitched in Game 1 of the series (5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 4 K).

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Guardians at Tigers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Wednesday at 11:03 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Guardians -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Tigers -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians -1.5 (+155) | Tigers +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Guardians at Tigers picks and predictions

Prediction

Tigers 2, Guardians 1

Moneyline

LEAN TIGERS (-105).

Detroit is the hotter team, being 7-3 in its last 10 overall and 4-1 in the playoffs thus far while Cleveland is only 4-6 in its last 10 and 1-4 in its last 5 overall.

I expect the Tigers’ “Cinderella” run to continue here and carry on into the ALCS.

This is a lean because the Guardians are the slightly better team on paper and because Cleveland is 2-1 in its last 3 matchups vs. the Tigers in Detroit.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

Detroit will cover here as a +1.5 (-190) underdog, but a line set that high is not worth the risk of betting on, especially when the team has better odds on the ML.

I recommend passing here as betting on the ML and/or total instead, but if you are okay with the risk, you can divvy up units between the run line and moneyline.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 6.5 (+100).

The Under is 2-0-1 in the 3 games in this series and has hit in the last 2 games beween these squads in Detroit. For the Tigers, the Under is 4-0-1 in the playoffs and 7-2-1 in its last 10 overall. For Cleveland, the Under is 8-1-1 in its last 10 outings.

Be aware that this bet comes with risk as betting on an Under number as low as 6.5 is always risky. Especially without knowing Detroit’s starter, although if it’s Olson he did keep the Guardians in check in Game 1.

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ALDS Game 3: Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers meet in Game 3 of their best-of-5 ALDS Wednesday at Comerica Park. First pitch is scheduled for 3:08 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Guardians vs. Tigers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Playoffs series: Tied 1-1; Guardians won regular-season series 7-6

Cleveland won Game 1 on Saturday 7-0 as the favorite (-128) cashed, while the total (7) pushed at most shops. In Game 2, Detroit returned the favor with a 3-0 win behind LHP Tarik Skubal as slight road favorites (-122) as the Under (6) again connected.

The Guardians swept a 2-game series at Comerica Park July 29-30, while the Tigers took 3 of 4 games in a set July 8-11. The Over has cashed in 4 of the past 5 meetings at Comerica Park, while the Under has hit in 5 of the past 6 in the series, including the 1st 2 games of this playoff set.

The Tigers are hosting their 1st playoff game at Comerica Park since 2014.

It’s been longer since Guardians RHP Alex Cobb made a postseason appearance, last pitching in the playoffs for the Tampa Bay Rays in 2013, including a start against Cleveland in a Wild Card win.

A torn fingernail on his right index finger and a blister on the middle finger of his pitching hand limited him to just 3 regular-season starts, and he hasn’t appeared since Sept. 1. He worked his way into shape with a 4-inning simulated game.

The Tigers have not announced a pitcher as of time of publishing.

Guardians at Tigers projected starters

RHP Alex Cobb vs. TBD

Cobb (2-1, 2.76 ERA) made 3 regular-season starts. He had a 1.04 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9 in 16 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 R (0 ER), 2 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 6-1 home victory vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Sept. 1
  • 2024 road splits (regular season): Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 5 R (4 ER), 9 H (1 HR), 1 BB, 12 K in 6-3 setback at Minnesota in only road start
  • Career vs. Tigers: 3-2, 2.91 ERA (46 1/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 in 8 starts

Tigers did not have a starting pitcher listed at time of publishing

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Guardians at Tigers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 5:27 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Guardians -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Tigers -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians -1.5 (+155) | Tigers +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Guardians at Tigers picks and predictions

Prediction

Guardians 3, Tigers 2

Moneyline

The GUARDIANS (-110) are worth playing lightly behind Cobb. While he doesn’t have a lot of games under his belt this season, he appears to be back to 100 percent healthy, and manager Stephen Vogt trusts him so much that he left RHP Ben Lively, who made 29 starts, off the ALDS roster.

We know what we’re getting with the Guardians, but we’re uncertain who will start for the Tigers. It could be an opener, but there is uncertainty when it’s not Skubal on the bump.

Run line/Against the spread

Backing the Tigers +1.5 (-190) will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return, if you need a little insurance and can’t back Detroit straight up.

The best thing to do is PASS, and focus on the moneyline.

Over/Under

UNDER 7 (+100) at even-money is worth a look in Game 3.

While Cobb is a little bit of an unknown, since he hasn’t pitched in 5 weeks, and we don’t even know who Detroit will roll with, the Under has cashed in a pair of shutout wins for each team in this series.

Detroit has cashed low at a 3-0-1 pace in the postseason, while the Under is 8-1-2 in the past 11 games since Sept. 22.

For Cleveland, the Under is 6-0-1 in the past 7 games, while going 13-2-2 in the past 17 outings, and 21-3-4 in the past 28 contests.

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ALDS Game 2: Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians meet in Game 2 of their best-of-5 ALDS Monday at Progressive Field. First pitch is scheduled for 4:08 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Tigers vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Playoffs series: Guardians lead 1-0; Guardians won regular-season series 7-6

Cleveland took the opener 7-0 Saturday, cashing as a -128 favorite as the O/U (7) pushed.

The Guardians erupted for 5 runs in the bottom of the 1st inning to chase opener RHP Tyler Holton, who allowed 4 runs and failed to record an out before getting pulled after 4 batters. RHP Reese Olson relieved and allowed just 1 run (1 HR) on 3 hits and a walk with 4 K’s in 5 innings, but the damage was done. It didn’t help that the Tigers offense only had 4 hits.

Cleveland CF Lane Thomas’ 3-run HR off Olson was the big blow. DH David Fry added 2 RBIs and 1B Josh Naylor had an RBI as the Guardians collected 4 extra-base hits and 2 steals. RHP Tanner Bibee (4 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K) and 4 relievers combined on the 4-hit shutout.

The Guardians turn to LHP Matthew Boyd for Game 2. He spent 7+ seasons with the Tigers from 2015-21, and again in 2023.

Tigers at Guardians projected starters

LHP Tarik Skubal vs. LHP Matthew Boyd

Skubal (18-4, 2.39 ERA) made 31 regular-season starts. He had a 0.92 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 in 192 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 3-1 win at Astros in Game 1 of AL Wild Card Series Tuesday in 1st career postseason appearance
  • 2024 road splits (regular season): 8-3, 2.86 ERA (88 IP, 28 ER), 8 HR, 1.03 WHIP, .234 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 11.5 K/9 in 15 starts
  • Career vs. Guardians: 2-2, 3.46 ERA (41 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.20 WHP, 9.5 K/9 in 8 starts
  • 2024 vs. Guardians: 1 start, win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 10 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 8-2 road victory July 22

Boyd (2-2, 2.72 ERA) made 8 regular-season starts. He had a 1.13 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 39 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 2 ER, 4 H (1 HR), 3 BB, 6 K in 6-5 setback at St. Louis Cardinals Sept. 21
  • 2024 home splits: 1-1, 2.25 ERA (20 IP, 5 ER), 0.95 WHIP, .206 OBA, 4 BB, 23 K in 4 starts
  • Career vs. Tigers: 0-0, 0.00 (4 IP, 0 ER), 0 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 2 relief appearances in 2022 with Seattle Mariners
  • Career postseason: 0-0, 0.00 ERA (1/3 IP), 1 H, 1 BB, 0 K in 1 relief appearance for Mariners vs. Houston Astros Oct. 15, 2022

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Tigers at Guardians odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Sunday at 11:29 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Tigers -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Guardians +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Tigers -1.5 (+150) | Guardians +1.5 (-185)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Tigers at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Tigers 4, Guardians 2

Moneyline

The TIGERS (-130) are a strong play behind their southpaw ace in Game 2 as they look to even the series.

Skubal was tremendous in Game 1 in Houston in the Wild Card Series, introducing himself to the casual fan with authority. He won his only start against the Guardians in Cleveland back in late July.

Boyd isn’t on the same plane as Skubal and Detroit should be able to level things up before the series shifts to the Motor City for Game 3 Wednesday.

Run line/Against the spread

If you’re a little more adventurous, feel free to take a shot on Detroit -1.5 (+150) … just don’t bet more than 1½ units between the moneyline and the spread.

The Guardians routed the Tigers in the series opener, but the pitching scales are tipped in favor of Detroit in Game 2.

Over/Under

PASS.

I’d be willing to make a wager if the O/U line climbs to 6.5. This line is low mostly because of Skubal. Don’t expect the Guardians offense to get off to a quick start like it did Saturday in Game 1.

The Under cashed in both games for Detroit in the Wild Card Series in Houston behind a 3-1 win with Skubal in the opener with an O/U line of 6.5, and a 5-2 victory in Game 2 with an O/U line of 7.5.

Cleveland cashed Unders at a 20-3-3 pace in its final 26 regular-season games, and 12-1-2 in the final 15 contests at Progressive Field.

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ALDS Game 1: Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians meet in Game 1 of their best-of-5 ALDS Saturday at Progressive Field. First pitch is scheduled for 1:08 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Tigers vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Regular-season series: Guardians won 7-6

This is the 1st time the Tigers and Guardians have met in the postseason.

The Tigers picked up a pair of road victories to sweep the Houston Astros in an AL Wild Card Series. The Tigers won 3-1 as slight underdogs (+128) Tuesday in Game 1 behind SP Tarik Skubal in his postseason debut, and they completed the sweep with a 5-2 win Wednesday in Game 2 as moderate underdogs (+155). The Under — 6.5 and 7.5, respectively cashed in both games.

The last time these teams met at Progressive Field, they teams split a 4-game series in July with the favorite cashing in 3 of those 4 outings. The Over-Under also split 2-2. The favorite is 5-2 in 7 meetings this season in Cleveland, with the Over holding a slight 4-3 edge.

Despite losing the season series, Detroit outscored Cleveland 60-50 in the 13 games as 5 of the Guardians’ 7 wins were only by 1 run.

The AL Central Division champion Guardians, the No. 2 seed in the AL playoffs, went 7-3 in the final 10 home games in the regular season, while the Under cashed in the final 5 outings at Progressive Field. The Under went 20-3-3 in the final 26 regular-season games for Cleveland, too. However, the Guardians haven’t played since last Sunday.

Tigers at Guardians projected starters

LHP Tyler Holton vs. RHP Tanner Bibee

Holton (7-2, 2.19 ERA, 8 saves) made 9 regular-season starts and 57 relief appearances. He had a 0.78 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 94 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 1 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 1 K in 5-2 win at Astros in Game 2 of AL Wild Card Game Series Wednesday
  • 2024 road splits (regular season): 3-2, 1.54 ERA (52 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 3 HR, 0.65 WHIP, .158 OBA, 7.9 K/9 30 relief appearances (6 starts)
  • Last 7 games: 1-1, 2.07 ERA (8 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 0.46 WHIP, 10.4 K/9 in 4 relief appearances, 3 starts
  • Career vs. Guardians: 2-0, 0.93 (19 1/3 IP, 2 ER), 13 H, 3 BB, 13 K in 12 appearances (3 starts)
  • 2024 vs. Guardians: 2-0, 0.00 ERA (12 1/3 IP), 8 H, 1 BB in 6 games (3 starts)
  • Career postseason: 0-0, 0.00 ERA (1 1/3 IP), 0 H, 0 BB, 1 K in 1 start, 1 relief appearance — both last week vs. Astros

Bibee (12-8, 3.47 ERA) made 31 regular-season starts. He had a 1.12 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 173 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 6-1 home victory vs. Cincinnati Reds Sept. 24
  • 2024 home splits: 5-4, 4.15 ERA (89 IP, 41 ER), 11 HR, 1.18 WHIP, .243 OBA, 10.0 K/9 in 16 starts
  • Last 7 games: 2-3, 3.92 ERA (41 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.23 WHIP, 9.4 K/9
  • Career vs. Tigers: 1-3, 5.28 (30 2/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 3 HR, 7.9 K/9 in 6 starts
  • 2024 vs. Tigers: 1-1, 4.50 ERA (22 IP, 11 ER), 1.05 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 in 4 starts
  • Has never appeared in postseason

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Tigers at Guardians odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 5 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Tigers +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Guardians -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Tigers +1.5 (-185) | Guardians -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Tigers at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Guardians 3, Tigers 2

Moneyline

The GUARDIANS (-155) are a safe play at home as moderate favorites.

Bibee makes his 1st postseason start, but he was arguably one of the team’s best members of the rotation. He also posted a 2.64 ERA (30 2/3 IP, 9 ER) in September, his best ERA of any month in the regular season. He also posted a 1.98 ERA (13 2/3 IP, 3 ER) in his final 2 starts.

The Tigers (+130) are steaming in with a lot of momentum after sweeping the Astros, so it won’t be easy.

Run line/Against the spread

If you’d rather have a little insurance, Tigers +1.5 (-185) is a little too expensive. Detroit will cost nearly 2 times your potential return. At that price point, it’s too much risk and not enough reward, even though 5 of Detroit’s 6 losses to Cleveland in the regular season were by a single run.

If you like Detroit, just play it straight up.

PASS.

Over/Under

UNDER 7 (-105) is worth a look in this series opener.

The total went Under both games for the Tigers down in Houston in the Wild Card Series, while the Guardians saw the Under cash at a phenomenal 20-3-3 clip in their final 26 regular-season games, while going 12-1-1 in the final 14 home outings.

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AL Wild Card Series Game 2: Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Houston Astros and Detroit Tigers continue their best-of-3 AL Wild Card Series with Game 2 in Houston Wednesday. First pitch from Minute Maid Park is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Tigers vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Playoff series: Tigers lead 1-0; Regular-season series: Astros won 4-2

The Tigers took Game 1 of the series 3-1 Tuesday — as +128 road underdogs — behind a sensational performance from SP Tarik Skubal and 4 relievers. Detroit’s ace tossed 6 shutout innings around 4 hits and 1 walk with 6 K’s before the bullpen finished the job, holding Houston to 1 run over the final 3 innings as the Under (6.5) cashed.

The Astros scored in the bottom of the 9th — C Yainer Diaz RBI single — and had the tying run on 2nd with 1 out, but a flyout to left and a lineout to 1st base 2 batters later with the bases loaded ended the game.

Detroit scored all 3 of its runs in the top of the 2nd inning on consecutive, 2-out RBI singles by C Jake Rogers, SS Trey Sweeney and 3B Matt Vierling off of Houston SP Framber Valdez (4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 3 K).

The Tigers, who made the playoffs for the first time in 10 years, were among the hottest teams in baseball over the last few months — 17-11 in August and 17-8 in September. They won 10 of their last 13 games, including 6 of the last 8, to close out the season. The Tigers finished 88-74 against the spread (ATS) in the regular season, tying for 2nd best in the majors, according to Teamrankings.com. Cincinnati was 1st (90-72), followed by Detroit, Baltimore, Kansas City and Washington — all 88-74.

The AL Central champion Astros, who are in their 8th consecutive postseason and 9th in the last 10 years, now have their backs up against the wall in this best-of-3 setup. While they finished 83-78 ATS, they also ended the regular season on a high note, beating the Cleveland Guardians in the final 2 games and winning 6 of their last 9.

Houston was 46-35 at home before Tuesday’s loss, while Detroit was 43-38 on the road.

Tigers at Astros projected starters

LHP Tyler Holton vs. RHP Hunter Brown

Holton (7-2, 2.19 ERA), set to make his playoff debut, made 66 appearances, including 9 starts in 2024. He has a 0.78 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 across 94 1/3 innings.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 1 IP in relief, 0 ER, 0 H, 1 BB, 1 K in 4-1 home win vs. Chicago White Sox Friday
  • Last start: No-decision, 2 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 4-3 victory at Baltimore Orioles Sept. 22
  • 2024 road stats: 3-2, 1.54 ERA (52 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 0.65 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 in 36 appearances, including 6 starts
  • Career vs. Astros: 0-0, 6.35 ERA (5 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 6 H, 2 HR, 0 BB, 3 K in 3 appearances
  • 2024 vs. Astros: 0-0, 0.00 ERA (4 IP, 0 ER), 1 H, 0 BB, 3 K in 2 relief outings

Brown (11-9, 3.49 ERA) made 31 appearances and 30 starts this season. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 through 170 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 8 K in 6-1 home loss vs. Seattle Mariners Sept. 23
  • 2024 home stats: 5-5, 3.35 ERA (86 IP, 32 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 in 15 starts
  • Career vs. Tigers: 3-0, 2.93 ERA (27 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 11.7 K/9 in 4 starts and 1 relief outing
  • 2024 vs. Tigers: 1-0, 0.75 ERA (12 IP, 1 ER), 10 H, 1 HR, 0 BB, 16 K in 2 games, including 1 start (7 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 9 K in 4-0 home shutout June 14)
  • Career in postseason: 0-0, 1.69 ERA (10 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 8 H, 1 HR, 4 BB, 7 K in 7 relief appearances since 2022

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Tigers at Astros odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Tuesday at 10:50 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Tigers +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Astros -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Tigers +1.5 (-160) | Astros -1.5 (+135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Tigers at Astros picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 4, Tigers 1

Moneyline

PASS.

There’s no value here. Houston (-165) is too expensive of a favorite to play to win outright on the moneyline. Similarly, Detroit (+140) is a bit risky of an underdog to play as well.

Look to the spread for better value.

Run line/Against the spread

BET ASTROS -1.5 (+135).

The Astros won and covered in 4 of their last 8 home games. Their offense struggled Tuesday, but they have scored at least 4 runs in 6 of their last 9 games. They should be able to find some traction Wednesday, especially as they’re set to take on many Tigers relievers. Even more impressive regarding the run line: Houston is 14-1 ATS in its last 15 wins.

The Tigers lost their last 2 games of the regular season — as big favorites vs. the lowly Chicago White Sox — yielding 13 runs in those 2 games. They received a masterpiece from Skubal in Game 1, which will be tough to repeat.

Expect Houston to prevail behind its pitching advantage Wednesday. TAKE ASTROS -1.5 (+135).

Over/Under

BET OVER 7.5 (-115).

The Astros didn’t get much going Tuesday, but they have had a consistent offense over the last several weeks. In 3 of their last 8 regular-season games, they scored at least 8 runs and went 4-3-1 O/U.

The Tigers have a similar story. While they only scored in 1 inning Tuesday — though the 3-run inning was enough — they have been more consistent as of late, scoring at least 4 runs in 4 of the last 5 regular-season games.

Look for both offenses to find some rhythm in Game 2. BACK OVER 7.5 (-115).

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AL Wild Card Series Game 1: Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Detroit Tigers and Houston Astros meet in a best-of-3 AL Wild Card Series Tuesday. First pitch from Minute Maid Park is set for 2:32 p.m. ET (ABC). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Tigers vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Regular-season series: Astros won 4-2

The Tigers (86-76) won 10 of 13 games to end the regular season — 2 losses came after they had already clinched a Wild Card spot. Detroit’s 3.61 ERA is the 4th-lowest in MLB, but its 4.21 runs per game (RPG) ranks 19th and last among playoff teams.

The Astros (88-73) entered the season with the 3rd-shortest odds to win the World Series at +800, but now have the 5th-shortest odds (+900 at BetMGM Sportsbook) after a somewhat disappointing year. Houston managed to turn its season around after starting 7-19, but its 4.60 RPG (10th in MLB) is a letdown after averaging 5.09 last year, which was 5th in the majors.

Tigers at Astros projected starters

LHP Tarik Skubal vs. LHP Framber Valdez

Skubal made 31 starts this season, going 18-4 with an AL-best 2.39 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 in 192 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 2-1 home victory over Tampa Bay Rays Sept. 24
  • 2024 road stats: 8-3, 2.86 ERA (88 IP, 28 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 11.4 K/9 in 15 starts
  • 2024 vs. Astros: 1-1, 4.26 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 in 2 starts
  • Career vs. Astros: 1-1, 3.16 ERA (25 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.01 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 in 4 starts

Valdez made 28 starts this season, going 15-7 with a 2.91 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 176 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 4-3 home victory vs. Seattle Mariners Sept. 24
  • 2024 home stats: 9-2, 2.53 ERA (96 IP, 27 ER), 1.05 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 in 15 starts
  • 2024 vs. Tigers: 1-0, 1 road start (May 10), 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 5-2 win
  • Career vs. Tigers: 2-2, 2.49 ERA (47 IP, 13 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 in 8 appearances (7 starts)

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Tigers at Astros odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Monday at 11:32 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Tigers +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Astros -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Tigers +1.5 (-200) | Astros -1.5 (+165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Tigers at Astros picks and predictions

Prediction

Tigers 3, Astros 2

Moneyline

It’s hard to fade the TIGERS (+125) with Skubal on the mound — especially at plus money. Detroit used a 15-3 run Sept. 7-27 to clinch a Wild Card spot, allowing 3 or fewer runs in 12 of the 18 games.

Skubal ended the regular season as a -5000 favorite (bet $5,000 to win $100) at multiple books to take home the AL Cy Young Award. He’s allowed 2 or fewer ER in 10 of 12 starts since the All-Star break and has won 6 straight decisions over his last 9 starts.

Valdez went 0-3 in 3 playoff starts last year — all at home — giving up a total of 12 ER in 12 IP. While he did go 3-0 over 4 starts when the Astros won the 2022 World Series, his most recent postseason data points are slightly concerning.

Getting the red-hot Tigers at plus money with the AL Cy Young favorite on the mound is worth a play. Tigers manager A.J. Hinch — who was fired by the Astros in 2020 — has a good shot at getting his revenge Tuesday.

BET TIGERS (+125).

Run line/Against the spread

Detroit +1.5 (-200) should hit, but the bid-ask difference is too high.

PASS. Bet the ML and/or total instead.

Over/Under

The Tigers are 3-0 to the Under in Skubal’s last 3 starts, and the Under is 1-0-1 in Valdez’s last 2. However, laying -120 without even getting the key number of 7 isn’t recommended. Don’t play this line unless you can get it at -108 or cheaper.

LEAN UNDER 6.5 (-120).

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Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Chicago White Sox (40-121) and Detroit Tigers (86-75) wrap up the regular season Sunday at Comerica Park. First pitch is scheduled for 3:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the White Sox vs. Tigers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tigers lead 10-2

The White Sox have won 4 of the past 5 games, which is crazy, but that’s 10% of its win total for the entire season. The pitching has picked up the pace, allowing just 9 runs in the past 5 games, or 1.8 runs per game (RPG). That includes 2 shutout wins, including a 4-0 win in Detroit on Saturday.

The Under has cashed in 6 straight for Chicago, while going 9-0-1 in the past 10 outings since Sept. 17.

The Tigers, who have already clinched a postseason spot, have been on fire in the month of September. Detroit is 6-1 in the past 7 games, and 15-4 in the past 19 games since Sept. 7. The Under is 5-0-1 in the past 6 outings, while going 11-3-1 in the previous 15 games since Sept. 12.

Detroit will be the No. 2 or 3 Wild Card in the AL playoffs, making its 1st playoff appearance since 2014.

White Sox at Tigers projected starters

RHP Jonathan Cannon vs. Undecided

Cannon (4-10, 4.37 ERA) makes his 21st start and 23rd appearance. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 119 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 3-2 home victory vs. Los Angeles Angels Tuesday
  • 2024 road splits: 3-5, 5.00 ERA, 54 IP, 30 ER, 61 H, 9 HR, 14 BB, 41 K, .292 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 1.39 WHIP in 12 starts
  • Last 7 games: 2-4, 5.12 ERA (38 2/3 IP, 22 ER), 39 H, 14 BB, 33 K, 1.37 WHIP
  • Career/2024 vs. Tigers: 0-2, 18.00 ERA (5 IP, 10 ER), 15 H, 2 HR, 4 BB, 5 K, .500 OBA in 2 starts

No Detroit pitcher announced at time of publishing

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

White Sox at Tigers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 8:52 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): White Sox +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Tigers -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): White Sox +1.5 (-115) | Tigers -1.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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White Sox at Tigers picks and predictions

Prediction

White Sox 3, Tigers 2

Moneyline

The WHITE SOX (+200) are worth a roll in the dice in the finale, as they look to finish on a strong note as they ride off into the offseason to regroup.

The Tigers (-250) are into the postseason, and while they can change their seeding, they won’t be using one of their top pitchers, as they try to preserve the good arms for the playoffs.

Run line/Against the spread

If you’re a little more conservative, and you just can’t bring yourself to play Chicago straight up, the WHITE SOX +1.5 (-105) aren’t a bad play for a little insurance.

Chicago has picked up the pace with 4 wins in the past 5 games, as its young players to build some momentum heading into 2025.

Over/Under

UNDER 7.5 (-110) might be the best play on the board.

The total has gone low in 6 in a row for the ChiSox, while going 9-0-1 in the past 10 outings. The Under has a slight 3-2-1 advantage in the past 6 starts for Cannon, too.

For the Tigers, the Under is 5-0-1 in the previous 6 contests, while cashing at an 11-3-1 clip in the past 15 outings.

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Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Detroit Tigers (86-74) welcome the Chicago White Sox (39-121) to Comerica Park Saturday for the 2nd game of a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the White Sox vs. Tigers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tigers lead 10-1

The White Sox lost 4-1 Friday to open up their 3-game series with the Tigers.

Chicago snapped a 3-game losing streak with the loss. It beat the Los Angeles Angels in all 3 games prior to this series. The White Sox are just 3-6 over their last 9 games, though. They are 16-63 on the road and 66-94 against the spread (ATS) overall.

The Tigers have been among the hottest teams in baseball over the last few months. They have rallied off 6 straight wins and clinched a playoff spot for the first time in 10 years. Detroit is in the 2nd AL Wild Card spot, 1 game ahead of the Kansas City Royals. It is 43-36 at home on the season and 88-72 ATS overall.

White Sox at Tigers projected starters

RHP Sean Burke vs. TBD

Burke (1-0, 1.93 ERA) makes his 3rd start and 4th appearance. The rookie has a 1.00 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 through 14 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 4-2 road loss to San Diego Padres Sunday (only career away appearance)
  • Has never faced Tigers

The Tigers had not yet announced a starter, but RHP Beau Brieske (4-4, 3.56 ERA) is expected to serve as the opener. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 through 65 2/3 innings in 45 appearances (11 starts).

  • Last outing: Win, 2 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 0 K in 4-3 home victory vs. Tampa Bay Rays Thursday
  • Last start: No-decision, 1 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 2 BB, 1 K in 4-2 home loss vs. Baltimore Orioles Sept. 14
  • Tigers bullpen 2024 stats: 46-36, 3.53 ERA (682 2/3 IP, 268 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 8.13 K/9
  • Tigers bullpen has 4th-lowest ERA in MLB

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

White Sox at Tigers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 10:45 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): White Sox +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Tigers -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread: White Sox +1.5 (-110) | Tigers -1.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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White Sox at Tigers picks and predictions

Prediction

Tigers 4, White Sox 3

Moneyline

PASS.

The Tigers (-250) have clinched the playoffs and should be riding high. However, playing them at this size of a favorite isn’t advised. Avoid a moneyline play.

Run line/Against the spread

BET WHITE SOX +1.5 (-110).

Detroit doesn’t need this game, and while it should still want to win for playoff seeding, it had a party Friday night. It has won 6 in a row, but it has only covered this size of a spread in 3 of the games. The Tigers have had 5 of their last 9 wins come by just 1 run.

Similarly, Chicago has a solid pitcher taking the mound who still has something to prove having just begun his career. Four of Chicago’s last 8 games have been within 1 run.

Expect a close battle, and take WHITE SOX +1.5 (-110).

Over/Under

BET UNDER 7.5 (-105).

The White Sox have gone Under in 5 straight games and are 0-8-1 O/U in their last 9. They are 66-85-9 O/U on the season. Chicago has scored 3 or fewer runs in 7 of their last 9 games as well.

The Tigers are a similar story. They have gone Under in 2 straight games and are 0-4-1 O/U in their last 5. Detroit has allowed just 1 run in 3 of its last 4 games. Couple all that together, and back UNDER 7.5 (-105).

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Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Chicago White Sox (39-120) and Detroit Tigers (85-74) meet Friday to open a 3-game series. First pitch from Comerica Park is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the White Sox vs. Tigers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Detroit leads 9-1

Chicago dismantled the Los Angeles Angels 7-0 Thursday while covering as a +118 home underdog. The White Sox were able to avoid what would be a record-breaking 121st loss thanks to a 7-run 5th inning. RHP Chris Flexen got the win (6 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 7 K).

Detroit escaped with a 4-3 win over the Tampa Bay Rays Thursday while covering as a -149 home favorite. The Tigers are locked into a 3-team AL Central race for the final 2 Wild Card playoff spots.

Detroit’s win keeps the Tigers tied with Kansas City while Minnesota is 2 1/2 games behind.

White Sox at Tigers projected starters

LHP Garrett Crochet vs. Undecided

Crochet (6-12, 3.68 ERA) makes his 32nd start. He has a 1.06 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 12.9 K/9 in 142 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 8 K in a 3-2 loss at San Diego Padres Friday
  • Career vs. Detroit: 0-1, 2.25 ERA (16 IP, 4 ER), 11 H, 12 BB, 21 K in 8 appearances (1 start)

No Detroit pitcher announced at time of publishing.

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

White Sox at Tigers odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 6:13 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): White Sox +138 (bet $100 to win $138) | Tigers -164 (bet $164 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): White Sox +1.5 (-154) | Tigers -1.5 (+128)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -122)

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White Sox at Tigers picks and predictions

Prediction

Tigers 5, White Sox 1

Moneyline

PASS. 

The Tigers will pick up the win here as -164 favorites and give Chicago its record-breaking loss, but Detroit is not worth the risk of betting on as such a heavy favorite.

I recommend betting on the spread and/or O/U instead of this bet, but if you are okay with the risk associated with this bet, you can divvy up units between the ML and spread.

Run line/Against the spread

LEAN TIGERS -1.5 (+128).

Detroit is the hotter team and has dominated Chicago this season, winning 9 of 10 matchups and not allowing the White Sox to finish within 1 run in any of Detroit’s last 5 wins vs. Chicago.

This is a lean because Chicago has finished within 1 run of the Tigers in 4 of its last 9 losses to Detroit and because the White Sox do not want to break the record for most losses in a season, so they have motivation in this matchup.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 7.5 (-122).

The Under has hit in 4-straight for Chicago and is 8-1-1 in its last 10 overall. For Detroit, the Under is 3-0-1 in its last 4 at home and 3-0-1 in its last 4 overall. The Under has also hit in 2 of the last 3 meetings in Detroit.

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