The Detroit Pistons (18-50) head to South Beach Tuesday to play the Miami Heat (45-24) at the FTX Arena. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Pistons vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Detroit has lost three straight games but was 2-1 against the spread (ATS) in those contests with the latest being a 106-102 home loss to the Los Angeles Clippers Sunday as a 3.5-point underdog.
Miami is 4-3 straight up (SU) and 5-2 ATS since March 2, most recently losing at home to the Minnesota Timberwolves 113-104 Saturday as a 4-point favorite.
The Heat are 2-1 SU but 0-3 ATS in their head-to-head series with the Pistons this season and the total is 1-2 Over/Under (O/U) in those games.
Pistons at Heat odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:04 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Pistons +650 (bet $100 to win $650) | Heat -1100 (bet $1,100 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Pistons +12.5 (-107) | Heat -12.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 214.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
Pistons at Heat key injuries
Pistons
- PG Cade Cunningham (illness) questionable
- PG Frank Jackson (back) out
Heat
- SF Caleb Martin (knee) out
[tipico]
Pistons at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Heat 114, Pistons 98
Money line
PASS.
Miami should win this game with ease but the -1100 price is an obvious no-go. There isn’t a team in professional sports that you should bet as a -1100 ML favorite.
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Against the spread
TAKE the HEAT -12.5 (-115) because this is the mother of all trap lines. The Pistons have covered 10 of its last 11 games, six of which were against teams with a winning record.
Detroit is also 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings with Miami and 6-0 ATS in the last six games against teams with a winning record. Despite that, -12.5 is the most Miami has been favored over Detroit in their last 11 meetings. Also, a majority of the action is on the Pistons, according to VegasInsider.com.
But Cunningham showed up on the injury report for the Pistons and they score 6.6 fewer points per 100 possessions when he isn’t on the floor, according to CleaningTheGlass.com. Cunningham’s improvement has been the key to Detroit’s recent feistiness.
Given all this, the Pistons aren’t sneaking up on the Heat, who are at full strength and coming off a loss. Miami is 16-6-1 ATS following a loss with a plus-2.0 ATS margin.
It’s a shockingly expensive price, but the HEAT -12.5 (-115) is the right side.
Over/Under
Slight LEAN to the UNDER 214.5 (-115) because the presumed sharp side of the market is backing the Under, hence the more vigorish.
According to Pregame.com, roughly three-fourths of the cash is on the Under whereas more than 85% of the public is on the Over. But oddsmakers have reacted to the money by lowering the O/U down from the 216-point opener.
However, outside of some line-movement analysis, I don’t have much on this total, so I wouldn’t bet it too heavily.
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