Fantasy football: Week 11 sits/starts for the Ravens

A look at what Ravens players to start, and which to sit, for Week 11 against the Houston Texans.

Sunday sees a clash between two division leaders as the Baltimore Ravens lock horns with the Houston Texans at M&T Bank Stadium. The Ravens have won their last five games at sit atop the AFC North with a 7-2 record. The Texans are on a two-game winning streak and are fresh from a bye following their rout of the Jacksonville Jaguars in London two weeks ago.

Here, I’ll offer my thoughts on players to start and players to sit this week. As ever, Lamar Jackson is playing, so if you’ve got him you’re starting him.

SIT – RB, Mark Ingram

Running backs have not enjoyed a great deal of success against the Texans in 2019. A tailback hasn’t scored more than 12.4 PPR points against them since Week 5. They’ve allowed only two running back rushing scores as well.

Ingram continues to operate as the lead back for Baltimore. But it would be inaccurate to describe him as a workhorse. He has gone four games since his last 20 opportunity game (carries + targets), and he’s been held below 50 rushing yards in four of his last five outings. He remains largely dependent on touchdowns with regards to his fantasy output and has finished higher than RB31 just once in games in which he didn’t find the endzone.

The Texans have been slightly more welcoming to running backs in the passing game, with seven running backs catching at least five passes against them this year. However, Ingram has commanded more than two targets in a game only three times this season and has exceeded 22 receiving yards just once since Week 3.

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4 ‘musts’ for the Texans to beat the Ravens in Week 11

The Baltimore Ravens present a tough-task for the Houston Texans on Sunday. The Texans can beat them by accomplishing these four musts.

In 2019, the Houston Texans have participated in their fair share of thrillers. Sunday’s AFC showdown with the Baltimore Ravens is presumed to be yet another addition to the stock-full cabinet of Texans thrillers. This time, with Houston coming in as underdogs.

The 7-2 Ravens, led by MVP candidate Lamar Jackson, sports star-level talent on both sides of the ball. The flock are favorites to win against the 6-3 Texans, led by fellow MVP candidate Deshaun Watson. Houston can change the course if they accomplish these four “musts.”

1. Play disciplined football

texans-whitney-mercilus-dazzled-jaguars-doug-marrone — (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

The ultimate cliché in football: play disciplined defense. While resorting to a cliché maybe unoriginal, it’s true; the Texans must play with sound gap-control, keep their eyes on the ball, set the edge consistently, wrap-up with their tackles and, most importantly, know what No. 8 is up to.

Sounds like playing good defense, huh?

Pretty much.

The Lamar Jackson-led Ravens are a triple-threat on offense. They can dink-and-dunk down the field with RPOs and play-action, run at will with Jackson and Mark Ingram and, with the previous two in-account, give defenses trouble with the threat of Jackson’s legs and his arm talent.

Baltimore is a nightmare to defend. There has yet to be a defense that can contain and Jackson and Co. for an entire game. Playing like a well-coached front-seven would undoubtedly help.

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Another perfect game for Lamar Jackson and other bold predictions for Week 11

The writers at Ravens Wire toss out their bold predictions for the Ravens vs. Texans, including big performances from Lamar Jackson.

The Baltimore Ravens take on the Houston Texans in what could very well be a preview of a future playoff matchup. With both teams in the thick of the AFC playoff picture this season, the winner of this Week 11 game is a pretty big deal.

Since this matchup features two of the best young quarterbacks in the game right now, most of the bold predictions coming from the Ravens Wire writers has to do with Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson. Take a look at the big and bold predictions we’ve got for Week 11 between the Texans and Ravens.

Matthew Stevens:

Lamar Jackson has another perfect game

Jackson has gotten far too much criticism for his passing ability through the early part of his career. And on two out of the nine games this season, Jackson has been statistically perfect. You’d think that would have shut the haters up but here we are in Week 11 and Jackson still has plenty of people continuing to doubt him. He does what no other quarterback in the history of the sport has done and that’s post his third perfect passer rating in a single season.

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Will Texans-Ravens ultimately be decided by a fourth down?

The Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens have been fabulous on fourth down conversions in 2019. Will their Week 11 encounter come down to one?

The best team in the NFL at converting fourth downs is the Baltimore Ravens at 76.9%.

The Houston Texans are tied for second-best at 70.0%, and they face the Ravens Sunday at 12:00 p.m. CT at M&T Bank Stadium.

Houston coach Bill O’Brien broke down for the media Friday what considerations go into going for it on fourth down.

“What are you anticipating from them when you put your personnel out there? What do you think they’re going to do? What is the distance? Where is the ball on the field? How is the weather, if it’s an outdoor game, quite obviously. Do you want to punt it? Do you want to kick a field goal, relative to where you are on the field? How good do you feel about the play that you would run? I mean, I could stand up here all day,” O’Brien said.

In an age where there are analytics galore, O’Brien believes the key is to use the analytics within the context of how the game is playing out that week.

“I think you use the analytics as a guide and you try to do the best you can to make the best decision for the team, but at the end of the day, you have to go with how the game’s being played, what you anticipate, from a preparation standpoint, what it might be,” said O’Brien.

One notable fourth down call was in Kansas City in Week 6. Facing a fourth-and-3 from the Chiefs’ 27-yard line and 2:00 left in the game, the Texans needed to pick up a first down to secure their 31-24 victory. A turnover on downs would give quarterback Patrick Mahomes and their quick strike offense a chance to send it to overtime. Rather than kick the field goal, O’Brien went for it, and Watson executed with an 8-yard pass to receiver DeAndre Hopkins.

“We went with a decision that it was fourth-and-3 and we said, ‘We have a good play. This is what I believe that they’ll do,'” O’Brien explained. “We’ve executed it in practice against what we think they’re going to do. So, we went ahead and did it.

“It was successful, but at the end of the day you try to do the best you can to make the best decision with all those factors weighed in.”

O’Brien and the coaching staff will have to make their best decisions against the Ravens as they seek to match last year’s 7-3 start.

How the Ravens can contain Deshaun Watson and other questions for Texans Wire

I talk with Texans Wire managing editor Mark Lane to get the inside scoop on what to expect from Ravens vs. Texans in Week 11.

The Baltimore Ravens get a near clone of themselves in Week 11 when they take on the Houston Texans. With a quarterback also in the discussion for the NFL’s MVP award, a tough rushing attack and a defense that has gotten the job done but hasn’t necessarily looked the greatest along the way, the Ravens are in for a taste of their own medicine.

To get a closer look at what Houston has going for them this season and where Baltimore might look to attack, I turned to Texans Wire managing editor Mark Lane.

1) Deshaun Watson has been having a great season but has also had a few mediocre games. How have opposing defenses been able to contain him in those efforts?

There are two tricks to slowing down Watson. The first is to generate a pass rush up the middle that is so overwhelming that he can’t evade his way out of the problem. The second way is to have really great coverage and force him to sit on some passes. One of the best things Watson does is get the ball out quickly and also avoid the first wave of pass rushers. Another element that helps is to stuff the run game. If the run game isn’t working, and Watson is all they have on the ground, that also allows the defense to key in on him and shut him down.

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Lamar Jackson vs. Deshaun Watson 2.0 could be another fireworks show

As Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson square off for the second time, history points to a shootout for the Ravens and Texans in Week 11.

The last time Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson were on a field together was a little more than three years ago, though they were wearing different jerseys. Jackson and Watson were trading figurative blows as Louisville and Clemson fought for supremacy through a shootout and four lead changes.

Jackson and Watson combined to run for nearly a quarter of the combined total yards in that game, putting up 253 rushing yards and two of the four rushing touchdowns scored. In one of the most exciting college games in recent history, they threw for a combined 601 yards, six touchdowns and four interceptions en route to a 42-36 Clemson win.

Fast forward to 2019, and both Jackson and Watson are two of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL. Jackson is in his first full season as the starter, leading the Baltimore Ravens to a 7-2 record and talk of an MVP award. Watson is in his third season with the Houston Texans and has them at 6-3 in the thick of the playoff hunt.

With the Texans and Ravens meeting on the field in Week 11, we could be in for a replay of that wild 2016 game.

Much like that Clemson-Louisville game from three years ago, Watson and Jackson have been huge parts of their respective offenses. Jackson leads the Ravens on the ground, accounting for just under 40% of the team’s total rushing yards. He’s been efficient as a passer, completing 65.9% of his passes with a 3-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Watson accounts for just under 22% of Houston’s rushing yards but has completed 70.2% of his passes while throwing 18 touchdown passes to just five interceptions.

Combined, Jackson and Watson total 5,449 total yards (rushing and passing), 33 passing touchdowns and 11 rushing touchdowns while leading the first- and eighth-ranked scoring offenses in the NFL.

But the opposite side of the ball has been less spectacular. The defenses for both Houston and Baltimore have been suspect at times this season. Though both units have gotten the job done well enough to have them in the playoff race, neither defense is on par with what we’ve come to expect from these franchises.

They rank near the middle of the league (15th for the Ravens and 19th for the Texans) and have had some terrible outings this year. Baltimore has allowed 500-plus yards while giving up 30-plus points twice this season. Houston has given up 500-plus yards once and has allowed 30-plus points three times.

Both Jackson and Watson have unique abilities to avoid a pass rush, often making defenses look foolish for trying to pressure them. But with J.J. Watt on injured reserve for Houston and Baltimore not having a star pass rusher of its own, neither Jackson nor Watson should have very much trouble this week. That should free up both offenses to throw from the pocket and use their mobile quarterbacks as weapons on the ground.

Combine these suspect defenses with the multitalented quarterbacks and it seems like a recipe for fireworks reminiscent of that Clemson-Louisville game.

Texans must utilize their hurry-up offense against the Ravens

The Houston Texans face a tough task on Sunday, the Baltimore Ravens. However, they can escape with a win if they run the no-huddle a bit.

The Houston Texans are preparing to face the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday. Though not an easy task, there are methods to besting the 7-2 black birds in Baltimore.

According to Sharp Football Stats, the New England Patriots found a susceptible wrinkle in the Ravens defense in Week 9: the hurry-up offense.

In their Week 9 loss, New England found their most success running the no-huddle, tallying a 62% success rate with it (58% pass, 73% run) as compared to 46% success rate without it (45% pass, 50% run).

For Houston, the Patriots’ success in Week 9 is a green light to run the NFL’s best fast-paced offense.

No NFL team runs the no-huddle better than the Texans. Per Sharp Football, they boast a top-ranked 85% success rate when playing hurry-up offense. Their hurry-up success includes an 82% successful pass rate and 89% on run plays.

The Texans gain an average of 7.1 yards on pass attempts and 6.8 yards per rush while running the hurry-up. They possess a perfect success rate on both first- and third-quarter hurry-up offense utilization.

Logically, the Texans will attempt to go fast in the first- and third-quarter while closing out each half with lengthy drives. That’s the hope, at least.

Naturally, one would conclude the Texans would run more hurry-up offense on Sunday. However, in 2019, that has not been the case, as they are doing so at the 29th-highest rate in the NFL.

Nonetheless, on Sunday, the Texans should consider turning the page by letting the offense run quickly. Of course, they won’t do so on any drive — they can’t against a run heavy offense that thrives on controlling the clock. However, if stuck in a pickle, they know where to go.

If one were to bet on when the Texans hurry it up, it would be on their first drives of the first- and third-quarters, as previously stated. Not only do they thrive running the hurry-up in each respective quarter, it would allow them to punch Baltimore in the mouth, then control the clock in their ensuing possessions.

Houston running the hurry-up on Sunday won’t be an every-down, drive or quarter thing. However, it’s a potential favorable matchup for an offense that must keep-up with a high-powered opposing offense.

Texans-Ravens odds: Marquee QB showdown in Baltimore

Previewing Sunday’s Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens Week 11 matchup, with NFL betting odds, picks and best bets

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The AFC South-leading Houston Texans (6-3) face the AFC North-leading Baltimore Ravens (7-2) at M&T Bank Stadium at 1 p.m. ET Sunday.

We analyze the Texans-Ravens odds and sports betting lines, while providing betting tips and advice on this Week 11 NFL matchup.

Texans at Ravens: Week 11 preview, betting trends and notes

Looking to place a bet on this game or others? Sign up at BetMGM!

Houston is 3-2 straight up against the moneyline on the road.
Baltimore has hit the Over in six of nine games this season.
The Texans have hit the Under in five of nine games this season.
Baltimore is 5-0 straight up in five home games against Houston, but the Texans are 4-1 against the spread in their last five meetings with the Ravens.
The Ravens are the highest scoring team in the league, averaging 33.3 points a game. Houston is eighth in scoring at 26.4 points a game. Both teams are in the middle of the pack in points allowed – Baltimore giving up 21 PPG and Houston allowing 21.2 PPG.
The teams have met just 10 times in their history with Baltimore winning eight.

Texans at Ravens: Key injuries

Several Texans were limited in practice this week, including OT Laremy Tunsil (shoulder), WR Will Fuller (hamstring), CB Bradley Roby (Hamstring), S Tashaun Gipson (back/wrist), OL Tytus Howard (knee) and LB Dylan Cole (knee). All are questionable.

The Ravens had two players who didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday – WR Marquise Brown (ankle) and DT Michael Pierce (ankle). Both will likely be game-time decisions.

Texans at Ravens: Odds, betting lines and prediction

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 1 p.m. ET.

Prediction

Baltimore 34, Houston 27

Moneyline (?)

For a team that is 6-3 and proved the ability to win on the road, the Texans (+165) are getting a pretty good return on investment for a win straight up, which is possible in this projected battle of quarterbacks. The Ravens force players to bet double the amount of return (-200), which makes betting on them a little too spendy. If you’re going to make a bet, a small wager on Houston is the way to go if you believe there is an upset brewing, but most people won’t feel comfortable betting $100 on the Ravens to win just $50.

Against the Spread (?)

This is a difficult number at 4½ points (-115 for bets on Houston, –106 on BALTIMORE) because this has the potential to be a shootout. If the Ravens get up by more than a touchdown late, they may try to take the air out of the ball which often leads to a meaningless score late in the game that keeps the final score closer than it should be. This is a tough call, but the Ravens have the horses to get the job done. Lay the points.

Over/Under (?)

This is a high number (49½ points) and the sportsbooks are almost daring bettors to take the Under, which is +110, while the Over is -134. This is a game that will feature two of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the league in Houston’s Deshaun Watson and Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson. Both are capable of huge days and both defenses have allowed big games through the air (Houston has the 29th ranked pass defense and Baltimore is 20th). It will take seven TDs and at least one field goal to get over that number, but this game has all the earmarks of a shootout. Take the OVER and tune in late.

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Texans’ Deshaun Watson in a three-headed race for NFL MVP

ESPN recently released their NFL MVP stock watch, with Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson in the thick of the race to win the award.

Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson continues to make those that picked him to win MVP look smart. After nine games of play, the third-year Pro Bowler has his Texans at 6-3. Individually, he is in the thick of a three-man race for MVP.

Watson, Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson are all in contention to win the league’s highest individual honor. According to ESPN, Wilson leads the pack, with Jackson and Watson following, in that respective order.

ESPN’s Courtney Cronin, Matt Bowen, Mike Clay, Jeremy Fowler, Dan Graziano, Kevin Seifert and Field Yates are complimentary of the third-place candidate in Watson.

Their reasoning for Watson’s ranking in ESPN’s NFL MVP stock watch:

“In his first nine games, Watson reached career highs in passer rating (107.1), completion percentage (70.2%) and passing yards per game (270.2). He has plenty of MVP-worthy moments, such as throwing a winning touchdown pass against the Raiders after being kicked in the eye and leading Houston to a blowout against Jacksonville the following week in his fourth game this season with multiple passing touchdowns and no interceptions. The only player with more such games is Wilson (seven).

The Texans are atop the AFC South because of what they’re doing offensively with Watson at the helm. In two full seasons’ worth of games, Watson has 75 total touchdowns, the second-most during such as span in NFL history. Coming off a bye in Week 10, Watson has the chance to put his MVP candidacy front and center when he faces off against Jackson and the Ravens.”

On the season, Watson has thrown for 2,432 yards and 18 touchdowns to five interceptions, while also pitching in 279 rush yards and five ground touchdown. If he can lead Houston to a win over the Jackson-led Ravens on Sunday, those MVP chants may be getting louder.

OC Tim Kelly likes the way the Texans offense has finished drives

Houston Texans offensive coordinator Tim Kelly likes the way his unit has taken advantages of drives to score against the opposition.

The Houston Texans offense is 10th in the league in points for (238) and sixth in the NFL in total yards (3,570), which are part of the club’s 6-3 record and first place in the AFC South.

There is plenty with the unit to be pleased with, but first-year offensive coordinator Tim Kelly really likes the way the offense has concluded their drives with quarterback Deshaun Watson at the helm.

“We’ve shown the ability to sustain and finish drives,” Kelly told reporters Thursday. “Deshaun’s doing a good job of really going out there and getting us into good plays, and our guys are going out there and making the plays that are coming their way and they’re able to do it and, like I said, sustain the drives.”

The Texans are averaging 2:59 time of possession per drive, fifth-best in the NFL, and 2.47 points per drive, the fourth-best in the league. The biggest stat that shows the offense is finishing drives is their 65.7% red zone conversion rate, tied with the Baltimore Ravens, Sunday’s opponent, for the fifth-best in the NFL.

Not bad for a unit that last season finished in the bottom-10 in red zone conversion at 50%, the only other playoff team other than the Dallas Cowboys to finish that low in red zone conversions.

“It doesn’t necessarily have to be a chunk play in order for us to score,” Kelly said. “So, that’s something that we’re continuing to try and get better at, but have shown improvement at.”

The Texans will need to sustain long drives, and finish them off, when they take on the Ravens Sunday at 12:00 p.m. CT at M&T Bank Stadium. Baltimore is the highest-scoring offense in the NFL with 300 points tallied thus far. In order for the Texans to keep the Ravens at bay, Houston will need to out-play them on the scoreboard both proactively and in an indirect manner via time of possession.