Tag: Derrick Henry

Running backs took back a lot of their previous respectability this year, and the wideouts did not fare as well. You’ll see a swing back towards more running backs in the earlier rounds of your 2025 fantasy draft. We’ll break down those backs with at least 100 touches and see if there is anything from the top of each metric that can point towards a better 2025 season.

2024 Fantasy Points

Running Back	FF Pts	Rush	Yds	TD	Targ	Rec	Yds	TD
Jahmyr Gibbs	364.9	250	1412	16	63	52	517	4
Saquon Barkley	351.3	345	2005	13	43	33	278	2
Bijan Robinson	339.7	304	1456	14	72	61	431	1
Derrick Henry	338.4	325	1921	16	22	19	193	2
De’Von Achane	299.9	203	907	6	87	78	592	6
Josh Jacobs	299.1	301	1329	15	43	36	342	1
Kyren Williams	278.1	316	1299	14	40	34	182	2
James Cook	266.7	207	1009	16	38	32	258	2
Alvin Kamara	265.3	228	950	6	89	68	543	2
Chase Brown	255.0	229	990	7	65	54	360	4
James Conner	251.8	236	1094	8	55	47	414	1
Aaron Jones	247.6	255	1138	5	62	51	408	2
Jonathan Taylor	246.7	303	1431	11	31	18	136	1
Bucky Irving	246.4	207	1122	8	52	47	392	0
Chuba Hubbard	245.6	250	1195	10	54	43	171	1
Breece Hall	240.9	209	876	5	76	57	483	3
Joe Mixon	240.5	245	1016	11	52	36	309	1
D. Montgomery	219.6	185	775	12	38	36	341	0
D’Andre Swift	212.5	253	959	6	52	42	386	0
Rachaad White	205.6	144	613	3	57	51	393	6

What was interesting and painful was that while the Top-10 from 2023 only had four running backs repeated in 2024, they were the No. 7 through No.10 backs (Kyren Williams, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Derrick Henry). None of the Top-6 returned as those biggest difference-makers of the ten best fantasy backs. The Top-10 from 2024 will be well represented in fantasy drafts but half or more will disappoint. It happens every year. It was an oddity that the six best fantasy scorers were not Top-10 in 2023.

Notable too was that Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, and Josh Jacobs all were on new teams and yet had stellar years.

The below stats are from the 41 running backs that scored at least 100 fantasy points in a reception-points league.

Yards per Carry

Best	Yd/carry	Worst	Yd/Carry
Derrick Henry	5.9	Ray Davis	3.9
Saquon Barkley	5.8	Rhamondre Stevenson	3.9
Jahmyr Gibbs	5.6	Devin Singletary	3.9
Jerome Ford	5.4	D’Andre Swift	3.8
Bucky Irving	5.4	Kenneth Walker III	3.7
Jordan Mason	5.2	Travis Etienne	3.7
James Cook	4.9	Tyjae Spears	3.7
Emanuel Wilson	4.9	Javonte Williams	3.7
Bijan Robinson	4.8	Kareem Hunt	3.6
Chuba Hubbard	4.8	Alexander Mattison	3.2

There are no shocks here, but it is very encouraging to see Bucky Irving Top-5 in yards per carry as a rookie on a team that entered the year with an offensive line that exceeded all expectations. Even Rachaad White ran for 4.3 YPC for the Bucs. Jerome Ford did a lot with his 103 rushes as the No. 4 in the metric and the Browns offensive line typically is above average but Nick Chubb only managed a career-low 3.3 on his 102 runs. The Panther’s improvement in blocking was carried forward by Chuba Hubbard in his first notable season.

A big surprise was the decline in rushing by the Chiefs who only rated No. 22 in running back fantasy points. Their O-line has long been elite but that did not come through for the rushing game this year with Kareem Hunt’s paltry 3.6 YPC. Isiah Pacheco never really returned from his stint on IR and had just 3.7 YPC on his 83 carries.

Yards per Catch

Best	Yd/catch	Worst	Yd/catch
Ray Davis	11.1	Travis Etienne	6.5
Austin Ekeler	10.5	Kenneth Walker III	6.5
Derrick Henry	10.2	Rico Dowdle	6.4
Jahmyr Gibbs	9.9	Jerome Ford	6.1
Josh Jacobs	9.5	Tony Pollard	5.8
David Montgomery	9.5	Devin Singletary	5.7
D’Andre Swift	9.2	Kyren Williams	5.4
Antonio Gibson	9.0	Rhamondre Stevenson	5.1
James Conner	8.8	J.K. Dobbins	4.8
Joe Mixon	8.6	Chuba Hubbard	4.0

Not just the realm of third-down backs, anyone who can turn a catch out of the backfield into a first down or touchdown is a solid team asset. The rookie Ray Davis led the group but only logged 17 catches, and James Cook ended with 32 receptions and an 8.0-yard average. There were no real surprises with the top of the batch, but it is obvious how differently offenses employ their backfield for receptions. Kyren Williams, Chuba Hubbard, J.K. Dobbins, and Rhamondre Stevenson all had solid performances as a rusher but didn’t offer much as a receiver. Interestingly, all those backs had around two catches per game as sort of a minimum for full-time backs.

Perhaps a coincidence, but four of the Top-5 were all new to their teams. Derrick Henry rated highly but only caught 19 passes. The Lions offense throws to the backfield often with a quarterback who never runs. Both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery were Top-6 in yards per catch.

Carries per Game

Best	Rush/Gm	Worst	Rush/Gm
Jonathan Taylor	21.6	Tyler Allgeier	8.1
Saquon Barkley	21.6	Jaylen Warren	8.0
Kyren Williams	19.8	Zach Charbonnet	7.9
Derrick Henry	19.1	Devin Singletary	7.5
Bijan Robinson	17.9	Jerome Ford	7.4
Josh Jacobs	17.7	Ray Davis	7.1
Joe Mixon	17.5	Antonio Gibson	7.1
Chuba Hubbard	16.7	Tyjae Spears	7.0
Alvin Kamara	16.3	Austin Ekeler	6.4
Tony Pollard	16.3	Ameer Abdullah	5.1

Here’s where the most consistently reliable fantasy backs are found. There were only two backs with more than 20 carries per game, which was more than the zero from 2023 or the two from 2021 and 2022. The common expectation for 2025 is that running backs will do better and will be drafted more often and earlier than in recent seasons. There’s no question that the Top-10 backs in this metric had higher production and will be coveted in fantasy drafts. Bottom line – higher the touches, the better the chance to be a difference-maker.

Jerome Ford showed up well in yards per carry, but had a low amount of work to judge. The worst in the metric were mostly third-down backs or secondary backs.

Catches per Game

Best	Catch/Gm	Worst	Catch/Gm
Alvin Kamara	4.9	Kareem Hunt	1.8
De’Von Achane	4.6	Brian Robinson Jr.	1.4
Kenneth Walker III	4.2	Devin Singletary	1.4
Bijan Robinson	3.6	Antonio Gibson	1.4
Breece Hall	3.6	Jonathan Taylor	1.3
Rachaad White	3.4	Derrick Henry	1.1
Chase Brown	3.4	Ray Davis	1.1
Ameer Abdullah	3.1	Jordan Mason	0.9
Jahmyr Gibbs	3.1	Tyler Allgeier	0.8
Javonte   Williams	3.1	Tank Bigsby	0.5

This metric has a large bearing on fantasy points in reception-point leagues. But, those backs with a high amount of catches was actually down last year. The group that caught over five passes in the last seven years consisted of only ten instances, and those were by Alvin Kamara (3), Christian McCaffrey (4), and Austin Ekeler (2).  The only other one was Saquon Barkley in 2018.

Most backs average around three catches. Those backs with fewer than two catches per game were mostly backup types, though Brian Robinson Jr., Jonathan Taylor, and Derrick Henry posted great rushing stats and just were not used much out of the backfield in those offenses.

Touches per Game

Best	Touch/Gm	Worst	Touch/Gm
Saquon Barkley	23.6	Jaylen Warren	10.5
Jonathan Taylor	22.9	Zach Charbonnet	10.4
Kyren Williams	21.9	Jerome Ford	10.1
Bijan Robinson	21.5	Tyjae Spears	9.5
Alvin Kamara	21.1	Austin Ekeler	9.3
Derrick Henry	20.2	Devin Singletary	8.9
Joe Mixon	20.1	Tyler Allgeier	8.8
Josh Jacobs	19.8	Antonio Gibson	8.4
Chuba Hubbard	19.5	Ameer Abdullah	8.2
Tony Pollard	18.8	Ray Davis	8.1

This is the true measurement of importance for a fantasy running back. Seven backs averaged over 20 weekly touches and here’s where Barkley finally popped to the top post.  The Top-40 that was considered for the analysis almost all had over 10 touches and the rest were just backup types.

Big Games

Best	30 Pt Gm	Worst	20 Pt Gm
Saquon Barkley	5	Bijan Robinson	9
Derrick Henry	3	De’Von Achane	8
De’Von Achane	2	Josh Jacobs	8
Jahmyr Gibbs	2	Derrick Henry	7
Bijan Robinson	1	Jahmyr Gibbs	7
Chuba Hubbard	1	Saquon Barkley	7
Joe Mixon	1	Chuba Hubbard	6
Breece Hall	1	Joe Mixon	6
Alvin Kamara	1	Breece Hall	5
James Conner	1	Chase Brown	5
Jonathan Taylor	1	Alvin Kamara	4
Kyren Williams	1	James Conner	4
Kenneth Walker III	1	Jonathan Taylor	4

This is maybe the most important metric of them all. You can build a good team with players that offer consistently good games. But those difference-makers with their monster performances can lock up that week, offer high points for tie-breakers and win seasons when overall points matter.

Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry were very well represented in fantasy league playoffs. Barkley’s five 30+ point performances were weekly bonanzas.  But using 20-point efforts as the measurement, Bijan Robinson, De’Von Achane, and Josh Jacobs were the only backs that turned in at least half of their games with 20+  points. Henry and Barkley only managed seven each. The biggest surprises were Chuba Hubbard (6) and Chase Brown (5) who were not even the starter in Week 1.

Negative Runs

Best	Neg Run %	Worst	Neg Run %
Kareem Hunt	6%	Jordan Mason	10%
Chuba Hubbard	6%	Jaylen Warren	10%
Tyrone Tracy	7%	Breece Hall	10%
David Montgomery	7%	James Cook	10%
Tank Bigsby	7%	Jerome Ford	11%
Bijan Robinson	7%	Nick Chubb	11%
Bucky Irving	7%	Zach Charbonnet	11%
Jahmyr Gibbs	8%	Travis Etienne	11%
Derrick Henry	8%	Rachaad White	12%
Tyler Allgeier	8%	Javonte Williams	12%
Rico Dowdle	8%	D’Andre Swift	12%
Aaron Jones	8%	Jaleel McLaughlin	12%
Chase Brown	8%	Antonio Gibson	13%
Najee Harris	8%	Alvin Kamara	13%
Kyren Williams	9%	Alexander Mattison	13%
James Conner	9%	Kenneth Walker	13%
J.K. Dobbins	9%	Joe Mixon	14%
Jonathan Taylor	9%	De’Von Achane	18%
Josh Jacobs	9%	Cam Akers	18%

This metric is dual-edged. On the one hand, it could be that these backs were not as talented at picking holes or too often bounced a run outside instead of taking what the defense was giving up in the middle. Likely more related is the quality of their team’s run blocking. After all, these tackles are made before the back even reached the line to pick a hole or make a move.

Kareem Hunt was one of the worst with yards per carry (3.6) and yet was the best (6%) in avoiding negative runs. That also suggests that the line was good enough to get him to his hole but then he did little when he got there.

It is also surprising that Chuba Hubbard, Tyrone Tracy, and Tank Bigsby rated so well in minimizing negative runs and all ran at least 150 times. And yet all three played for teams that turned in a bottom-rung season, so it could be that opponents were fine with their opponents rushing because they spent most of the games well ahead and defending the pass instead.

The more notable are the backs that had the worst results. De’Von Achane, Joe Mixon, Kenneth Walker, and Alvin Kamara were all weekly fantasy starters and yet  were the worst at being tackled behind the line of scrimmage. Those offensive lines were complicit in the failure of many rushing plays.

Top-10 performances for the week

Best	Top-10 Weeks
Jahmyr Gibbs	59%
Saquon Barkley	56%
Bijan Robinson	53%
De’Von Achane	53%
Joe Mixon	50%
Derrick Henry	47%
Chuba Hubbard	47%
James Cook	44%
Chase Brown	44%
J.K. Dobbins	38%
Kyren Williams	38%
Breece Hall	38%
David Montgomery	36%
Josh Jacobs	35%
James Conner	31%
Bucky Irving	29%
Alvin Kamara	29%
Jonathan Taylor	29%
Kenneth Walker III	27%
Rhamondre Stevenson	27%
Rico Dowdle	25%
Jordan Mason	25%

This is another telling measurement – how often did a running back log a Top-10 performance among all fantasy backs for that week? Joe Mixon fared better here though most of his success came early in the season. As good as Kyren Williams, Breece Hall, Josh Jacobs and Alvin Kamara seemed, they all failed to be Top-10 in less than 40% of their games. Compared to each other, only five backs managed to turn in RB1 stats in at least half of their games.