Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns odds predictions pick betting line

The Denver Nuggets (9-7) meet the Phoenix Suns (12-3) for an 8 p.m. ET tip-off at Footprint Center Sunday. Below, we look at the Bulls vs. Nuggets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.

Denver is a loser of three in a row to the Dallas Mavericks, Philadelphia 76ers and Chicago Bulls following a five-game winning streak. The Nuggets are 7-9 ATS and 5-11 O/U with the ninth-best net rating (plus-2.5). Denver big Nikola Jokic leads the NBA in PER and Win Shares per 48 Minutes.

Phoenix enters on an 11-game winning streak with the last two coming in a home back-to-back against the Mavericks. The Suns excel in defense (ranked third in defensive rating) and ball security (second in assist-to-turnover rate). Phoenix is 8-7 ATS and 5-10 O/U with the fifth-best net rating (plus-5.3).

The Nuggets hammered the Suns 110-98 as 6-point road underdogs in each team’s season opener. However, Phoenix did sweep Denver (4-0 ATS) in their Western Conference Semifinals playoff series last season.

Nuggets at Suns odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:45 p.m. ET.

Money line: Nuggets $250 (bet $100 to win $250) | Suns -320 (bet $320 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Nuggets +7.5 (-108) | Suns -7.5 (-112)
Over/Under (O/U): 208.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Nuggets at Suns key injuries

Nuggets

SF Michael Porter Jr. (back) out
PG Jamal Murray (knee) out

Suns

PF Frank Kaminsky (knee) out

Nuggets at Suns odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Suns 113, Nuggets 104

Money line

PASS since Phoenix is the right side but the Suns (-320) is way too expensive for any NBA regular-season favorite especially when playing a team who is top-10 in net efficiency.

Against the spread

“LEAN” to the SUNS -7.5 (-112) because Phoenix’s pick-and-roll offense is too much for Denver.

For instance, Phoenix grades in the 96.6 percentile of the NBA in pick-and-roll offensive efficiency through the “roll man” and the Suns run that play type at the second-highest frequency.

On the other hand, Denver’s defensive efficiency vs. pick-and-roll action through the “roll man” grades in the 24.1 percentile.

Furthermore, Phoenix has two long bigs to throw out Jokic whenever he’s on the court. Not only is Suns big Deandre Ayton an up-and-coming star who played very well against Jokic in the playoffs last year. But, Phoenix backup big JaVale McGee is one of the best backup centers in the Association.

Also, Porter played in the first Nuggets-Suns meeting this season and Denver will miss his ability to space the floor with his 3-point shooting, especially Jokic who loves to hit wide-open shooters when defenses collapse on him.

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the OVER 208.5 (-115) because Phoenix’s offense plays at the fourth-highest pace in the NBA and Denver’s transition offense is pretty efficient. If the Nuggets are forced to speed up the tempo then Denver should do its part in pushing this game Over the total.

Additionally, if Phoenix finds success running its pick-and-roll action it’s going to free up wide-open looks for forwards Mikal Bridges and Jae Crowder. And, as we already discussed, the Suns should knife through Denver’s flimsy pick-and-roll defense.

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