Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks odds predictions pick betting line

Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Dallas Mavericks (18-18) host the Denver Nuggets (18-16) Monday at the American Airlines Center for an 8:30 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Nuggets vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Denver has won three consecutive road games, going 2-1 against the spread (ATS). The Nuggets won at the Los Angeles Clippers, Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets.

Since Dec. 22, the Nuggets are 3-2 straight-up (SU), 2-3 ATS and 1-4 O/U with the 13th-best non-garbage time net rating at plus-1.3 points per 100 possessions, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Dallas has won back-to-back road games, winning at the Sacramento Kings 112-96 Friday and, in PG Luka Doncic‘s return, at the Oklahoma City Thunder 95-86 Sunday.

Since Dec. 21, the Mavs are 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS and 3-4 O/U with the 10th-best non-garbage time net rating at plus-10.0 points per 100 possessions.

This is the regular-season rubber match between these teams as the home side won and covered the first two meetings with the O/U going 1-1.

Nuggets at Mavericks odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:34 p.m. ET.

Money line: Nuggets +122 (bet $100 to win $122) | Mavericks -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Nuggets +2.5 (-105) | Mavericks -2.5 (-120)
Over/Under (O/U): 213.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Nuggets at Mavericks key injuries

Nuggets

SF Vlatko Cancar (nasal fracture) probable
PF Jeff Green (health and safety protocols) out
PG Bones Hyland (health and safety protocols) questionable
PG Monte Morris (health and safety protocols) out

Mavericks

PG Trey Burke (health and safety protocols) out
C Boban Marjanovic (health and safety protocols) out
PG Frank Ntilikina (thigh) questionable
PF Kristaps Porzingis (health and safety protocols) out
G Isaiah Thomas (health and safety protocols) out

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Nuggets at Mavericks odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Mavericks 107, Nuggets 102

Money line

PASS with a “lean” to the Mavericks (-150) because I only “lean” toward Dallas laying the points and would much prefer to bet the Mavs outright.

Against the spread

“LEAN” to the MAVERICKS -2.5 (-120) because they are a lot healthier than the Nuggets.

Don’t sleep on the absence of Morris for Denver. He is second on the Nuggets in adjusted on/off net rating at plus-14.5 points per 100 possessions (per CTG), which grades out in the 95th percentile of point guards.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 213.5 (-115) for 1 unit because there’s some reverse line movement in the betting market of the total.

According to Pregame.com and the Yahoo! Sports app, a vast majority of the market is betting the Over in this game, but the total has been lowered from 214 on the look-ahead line.

Both teams rank in the bottom 10 of points per game, the top 10 of points per game allowed and the bottom eight of pace.

Also, Dallas has gone Under the total in its past seven games as a favorite and Denver have gone Under the total in four of its past five games overall.

UNDER 213.5 (-115) is my favorite wager in this game.

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Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Dallas Mavericks (8-4) hosts the Denver Nuggets (9-4) Monday for an 8 p.m. ET tip-off at American Airlines Center. Below, we look at the Nuggets vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.

Denver has won five straight games, three of which were against playoff teams from last season. The Nuggets hammered the Portland Trail Blazers last night 124-95 as 5.5-point home favorites. Denver is 7-6 ATS and 3-10 O/U with the fourth-best net rating (plus-5.6).

Dallas has won four of its past five games with the latest being a 123-109 victory at the San Antonio Spurs as 2.5-point road favorites.

The Mavs’ offense is all on Luka Doncic‘s shoulders. Doncic has the highest usage rate in the Association and the third-highest assist rate. Dallas is 4-8 ATS and 3-8-1 O/U with the 21st-ranked net rating (minus-1.8).

The Nuggets destroyed the Mavs 106-75 in their first meeting this season, Oct. 29. Denver outscored Dallas 50-22 in paint points and held the Mavs to just 29.5% field goal shooting.

Nuggets at Mavericks odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3 p.m. ET.

Money line: Nuggets +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Mavericks -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Nuggets +4.5 (-105) | Mavericks -4.5 (-120)
Over/Under (O/U): 208.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Nuggets at Mavericks key injuries

Nuggets

SG Will Barton (back) doubtful
SF Michael Porter Jr. (back) out

Mavericks

PF Maxi Kleber (oblique) out

Nuggets at Mavericks odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Nuggets 104, Mavericks 99

Money line

Slight “LEAN” to the NUGGETS (+160) for a tiny wager because I “like” Denver getting points in this spot and will “sprinkle” on the underdog’s money line. Furthermore, the Mavs have gotten stomped in the few times they’ve played a good team this season.

According to CleaningTheGlass.com, which removes garbage time from its stat tracking, Dallas has an NBA-worst minus-24.3 net points per 100 possessions vs. teams in the top-10 of net efficiency.

That said, Denver’s spread is a much wiser wager so if it’s either or go with the Nuggets plus the points.

Against the spread

Definitely BET the NUGGETS +4.5 (-105) heavier than or instead of Denver’s money line. Each team has only played three games vs. opponents in the top-10 of net efficiency.

But, Denver has a plus-10.7 spread differential (ranked second) in those games and Dallas has a minus-15.3 spread differential (ranked 29th), according to CleaningTheGlass.com.

Also, more than 85% of the cash wagered is on the Mavericks (according to Pregame.com), which has steamed them up from a 4-point favorite on the opener to the current number. Typically, a contrarian mindset is a profitable foundation for successfully betting on sports.

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the UNDER 208.5 (-112) because more money is on the Under whereas more bets have been placed on the Over (according to Pregame.com). Generally, it’s wise to follow the money in sports betting especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public.

Also, the Mavs just don’t score easy buckets. Dallas scores the fourth-fewest points off of turnovers, second-chance points and fastbreak points per game and the second-fewest paint points per game.

However, I can only “LEAN” to the UNDER 208.5 (-112) because the probable absence of Barton hurts Denver’s defense more so than its offense. CleaningTheGlass.com grades Barton in the 97th percentile of on/off rating for wings.

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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