The Euro 2020 knockout round is officially upon us. To kick off the Round of 16, Denmark faces Wales Saturday at noon ET at Johan Cruijff Arena in Amsterdam, Netherlands. Below, we preview the Denmark vs. Wales odds and lines and make our best Euro 2020 bets, picks and predictions.
Denmark and Wales are 10th and 17th, respectively, in the FIFA World Rankings.
Wales, led by aging F Gareth Bale, is coming off a 1-0 loss to Italy Sunday. It received a red card in the match, but that was after Italy scored its goal. Wales scored just 3 goals over its first three games but the defense has been terrific with just 2 goals allowed in the group stage.
Denmark sadly made the news when MF Christian Eriksen collapsed on the field in the nation’s first game of the tournament. After failing to score in that game, Denmark scored 5 goals in its next two matches. It destroyed Russia and held a lead against tourney-favorite Belgium.
Denmark vs. Wales: Odds, picks and predictions
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:17 a.m. ET.
- Money line (to advance to the Round of 8): Wales +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Denmark -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 1.5 (O -200 | U: +140)
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Prediction
Denmark 1, Wales 0
Money line (ML)
PASS on the money line as Denmark (-250) is just too pricey. While I fully expect Denmark to win, it is not worth that price as both teams are relatively equally matched, especially without Eriksen on the pitch.
Now, to win in regulation, you can get DENMARK (-110) as a solid value. It’s the better side but only marginally.
In non-Belgium games, Denmark had 16 shots on target compared to its opponent’s 3. The Danes found the back of the net often against Russia, and showed their dominance.
While Wales has also played well, it hasn’t shown quite as much, winning in gritty, defensive matches. It was outshot by both Switzerland and Turkey and Bale has yet to score in the tournament.
DENMARK (-110) on the 90-minute line is the best money line play.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET the UNDER 1.5 (+140), as Wales defense is strong while its offense struggles.
At the same time, Denmark’s numbers are a bit inflated. It scored 5 in the group stage but 4 were against Russia, a team that also gave up a 3-goal game to Belgium.
Eriksen was Denmark’s best scoring and distributing option. Despite scoring 5 times, it didn’t have a single goal scorer with more than 2 tallies. F Yussuf Poulsen, who plays club at Leipzig, leads the team with 2 goals.
If Wales continues its trend of shutting down opponents, or at least making chances difficult to come by, I’d expect a low-scoring game. Both teams have some explosive nature but haven’t been able to fully harness it.
This plus-money bet is the best value in Denmark-Wales.
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