The Duke Blue Devils (19-3) head to Chapel Hill to play their longtime rival, the North Carolina Tar Heels (10-12), in the Dean E. Smith Center at 6:30 p.m. ET. We analyze the Duke-North Carolina odds and betting lines, with college basketball betting advice and tips around this matchup.
Duke at North Carolina: Three things you need to know
- Duke versus North Carolina is one of college basketball’s most storied rivalries. Today will be the 250th meeting between the two schools and the Tar Heels lead the Blue Devils in the all-time series, 138-111.
- This North Carolina team is on pace to be the worst Tar Heel team of the Roy Williams era. The Tar Heels have made the NCAA Tournament in 16 of Williams’ 17 seasons at the helm and have never finished below .500.
- The Blue Devils come into today’s game on a four-game winning streak after taking back-to-back losses to the Louisville Cardinals and Clemson Tigers. Their star freshman center, Vernon Carey Jr., averaged 20 points and 11.5 rebounds per game in those four wins.
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Duke at North Carolina: Odds, betting lines and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:15 a.m. ET.
Prediction
UNC 73, Duke 70
Moneyline (ML)
This is a fringe play, but let’s SPRINKLE A SMALL WAGER ON NORTH CAROLINA +280 on the money line. From a recruiting standpoint, Duke does have a talent advantage: The Blue Devils have eight RSCI top-100 recruits compared to the Tar Heels’ five top-100 recruits. But North Carolina has the most prized recruit out of the two teams in PG Cole Anthony, who should be a top-5 pick in this summer’s NBA Draft. Between he and PF Garrison Brooks—who’s averaging 14.9 points and nine rebounds per game make him a difficult matchup for Duke’s Carey Jr.—the Tar Heels have real money line value in the Smith Center.
Against the Spread (ATS)
Betting trends are in favor of BETTING NORTH CAROLINA +8 (-115). First, the Tar Heels are 5-1 against the spread in their last six meetings versus Duke. Second, North Carolina is 4-3 ATS on the road against above .500 teams and 1-0 ATS when getting 7.5-9.5 points. Since 2015, North Carolina’s ACC conference game ATS record is better than Duke’s—the Tar Heels are 52-42-2 ATS, while the Blue Devils are 44-50-2 ATS against ACC competition.
Over/Under (O/U)
We are on the UNDER 150.5 (-115) in North Carolina-Duke. The Under correlates with our Tar Heels money line and ATS picks because they have the most Unders in the ACC with a 7-14-1 Over/Under record. Also, the last six North Carolina-Duke games have gone Under.
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