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The Dayton Flyers (25-7) and Arizona Wildcats (26-8) start off Saturday’s NCAA Tournament 2nd-round action. Tip-off from the Delta Center in Salt Lake City is slated for 12:45 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Dayton vs. Arizona odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.
Dayton, the 7th seed in the West Region, rallied from a 17-point deficit to beat 10th-seeded Nevada 63-60 in the 1st round Thursday. UD trailed 56-39 with 7:15 to go in the 2nd half before going on a 24-4 run to close the game and stun the Wolf Pack, who went ice-cold from the field down the stretch.
The Flyers hit 45.7% from the field, and 42.1% (8 of 19) from behind the 3-point line, while converting 13 of 15 free throws (86.7%). F DaRon Holmes scored 8 of his game-high 18 points during the final run. Dayton was a 1-point underdog and the Under (137) hit.
Arizona, the No. 2 seed, scorched 15th-seeded Long Beach State 85-65 Thursday — the Wildcats pushed as 20-point favorites and the Under (163) cashed. Despite the push, Arizona is a healthy 7-3-2 against the spread (ATS) in the past 12 games, while the Under has connected in 4 in a row, and 7 of the past 9 outings.
The Wildcats had 5 players — all starters — go for double-digit scoring totals, led by G Kylan Boswell’s 20 points, including 4 3-pointers. Arizona was 37.1% behind the arc, hitting 13 of 35 attempts.
Arizona is No. 9 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, while Dayton fell out of the Top 25 following a A-10 quarterfinal loss to Duquesne — the Flyers had been ranked most of the season, climbing as high as No. 16.
Dayton vs. Arizona odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook’s; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 5:49 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Dayton +375 (bet $100 to win $375) | Arizona -500 (bet $500 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Dayton +9.5 (-105) | Arizona -9.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 149.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Dayton vs. Arizona and predictions
Prediction
Arizona 80, Dayton 63
Moneyline
Arizona (-500) costs too much to play straight up. One would have to risk 5 times the potential profit. As a long-term betting strategy, that’s just a losing way to go.
Dayton (+375) cannot be trusted for the big upset. It is lucky to be here and probably shouldn’t even be in this game, but Nevada played not to lose once it had a big lead Thursday, rather than playing to win.
Don’t get me wrong. The Flyers are a talented team which made noise at times, but the Wildcats are just too strong from top to bottom, and size will make a huge difference.
PASS.
Against the spread
ARIZONA -9.5 (-115) is a strong play laying the points. The Wildcats took care of business in their opener against Long Beach State, not playing down to the competition, but playing their game and dictating the tempo. The Wildcats have been a team playing free, letting talent take over, and not worrying about adjusting to the style of the opponent.
Dayton dug itself out of a deep hole against Nevada in the 1st round. That’s great, and it was a solid effort and comeback. The Flyers can’t afford to do that against the ‘Cats, or they will get buried by a more talented squad.
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Over/Under
UNDER 149.5 (-110) might be the best play on the board.
The Under has hit in 4 straight games for the Wildcats as the defense has picked up the pace. Arizona has allowed 67 or fewer points in those 4 outings, and in 6 of the past 8. Arizona has tremendous size in the interior, and it is likely to push Dayton around a bit.
The Flyers won a Under game against the Wolf Pack in the 1st round, and the Under cashed an vs. Duquesne in the A-10 Tournament loss. Prior to the conference tournament, the Over was on a 6-0 run for Dayton to close out the regular season. But the Flyers are facing much better teams in the postseason. Look for the total to go Under again in Round 2.
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