In a lightweight bout on the main card, Grant Dawson meets Ricky Glenn Saturday at UFC Fight Night 196 – also known as UFC Vegas 41 and UFC on ESPN+ 54 – at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. Below, we analyze the UFC Fight Night 196 Dawson vs. Glenn odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The card can be viewed on ESPN+ with the prelims at 1 p.m. ET and the main card at 4 p.m. ET.
Dawson takes the walk to the octagon with five straight victories since his UFC debut March 9, 2019, including a third-round KO/TKO over Leonardo Santos last time out March 20, 2021.
Glenn has alternated wins and losses in each of the past five fights, and he posted a first-round KO/TKO win over Joaquim Silva in just 37 seconds on The Korean Zombie-Ige card June 19.
He has had just the one finish in his last eight fights. All of the seven others have been decisions as he’s gone 4-3 when the judges were involved.
Dawson isn’t interested in getting the judges involved, picking up two submission wins and a KO/TKO victory in his last four fights with just one decision.
UFC Fight Night 196 Dawson vs. Glenn: Odds and lines
Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:53 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Dawson -550 (bet $550 to win $100) | Glenn +370 (bet $100 to win $370)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -165 | Under +120)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -145 | No +105)
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UFC Fight Night 196 Dawson vs. Glenn: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Records: Dawson (17-1-0) | Glenn (22-6-1)
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
Dawson (-550) is going to win this fight, and it is likely going to be a finish. However, you cannot risk more than five times your potential return, as betting on big favorites like that is a losing strategy over the long term.
Instead, consider betting either DAWSON BY KO/TKO (+255) and/or DAWSON BY SUBMISSION (+330). You can bet both of these props and still be ahead, as long as he doesn’t lose or win on points.
Over/Under (O/U)
NO (+105): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCES? is a good bet, as I am looking for a Dawson finish. While Glenn has gone the distance in seven of his last eight bouts he hasn’t faced a dynamic fighter the likes of Dawson. Take advantage.
In addition, I like playing DAWSON TO WIN IN ROUND 2 (+470) and DAWSON TO WIN IN ROUND 3 (+700). Yes, you will lose one of these ends, even if he wins in Rounds 2-3, but you’ll still be quite a bit ahead.
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