Tag: data

Data shows Browns RB Nick Chubb set apart in his big play ability

When it comes to two important data points, this graph shows just how much Chubb leaves the competition in the dust:

The Cleveland Browns have joined teams like the Tennessee Titans in having a dominant running game lead their offense. While the majority of the NFL has moved toward being strong in throwing the football, the Browns have steadied their offense around a great offensive line and a stable of running backs.

The addition of QB Deshaun Watson may help the team reach their ultimate goal in the future but his uncertainty in 2022 could lead to more from the rushing attack.

One of the reasons that most NFL teams have leaned toward the passing game is the ability for explosive plays. While running the ball can lead to an explosive play here and there, the space available in throwing the ball creates a greater opportunity. That doesn’t mean a running back can’t be explosive, however.

For Cleveland, RB Nick Chubb has created those opportunities at a much higher rate than any other back in the league over the last two seasons:

The graph does a great job of showing that no one is even close to Chubb when it comes to creating big plays despite condensed space. Chubb forces a missed tackle on over a quarter of his carries and his yards after contact is greater than most backs’ yards per carry.

If Watson is suspended for a year, the Browns can count on their running game to carry the offense. Whether that will be enough in the explosive AFC could depend on the team’s defense and how QB Jacoby Brissett plays as a starter.

There is little doubt that Chubb will do his part.

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Data: Watson has been elite as a dropback passer

Watson could benefit from the strong offensive line, run game, play action scheme and screen game of the Browns but his history says he can produce at a high level simply by dropping back to pass:

While there were a variety of discussions about whether QB Baker Mayfield was a good enough quarterback, one seemed to focus on how Kevin Stefanski’s Cleveland Browns offense used him. Many believe that the play-action heavy passing attack, especially with a great running game, allows a quarterback to succeed beyond his talents.

The use of rollouts and boot action also limits the amount of field a quarterback has to read which should make their life easier.

The same arguments have been used against quarterbacks who play in screen-heavy offenses where they can put up big numbers mostly due to yards after catch scenarios.

With that in mind, stripping away play-action and screen plays from the data can help give a better perspective on a quarterback’s production. Since 2019, new Browns QB Deshaun Watson has been among the elite quarterbacks in these kinds of pure dropback passes:

While EPA (expected points added), is a complex mathematical formula, using it as a data point reference can be useful. As seen above, Watson was tied for the third best performance in pure dropback situations since 2019. Patrick Mahomes stands alone while the now-retired Drew Brees was slightly better.

It is interesting to see Aaron Rodgers and Dak Prescott with the same results as Watson. Rodgers is always considered near the top of the league’s signal-callers while Prescott is rarely, if ever, in that conversation.

In Stefanski’s offense, Watson could benefit from the strong offensive line, run game, play action scheme and screen game but his history says he can produce at a high level simply by dropping back to pass.

Data: Browns created third lowest separation in 2021

Today’s data backs up what was very clear to see on the field in 2021 and what led the team from moving on from three of their top targets:

Sometimes data (analytics, statistics, research… whatever you may want to call it) can provide an interesting nugget about sports. Sometimes data can surprise you as it shows you something you didn’t know or didn’t think was true.

Other times, like today, data can show you exactly what you saw on the field.

Last year, the Cleveland Browns had significant trouble separating from defenders while running routes. With WR Jarvis Landry and TE Austin Hooper leading the team in targets and WR Rashard Higgins fifth on the list, the Browns threw a lot of passes to players without elite speed or quickness.

None of those three had more than 11.5 yards per reception. Not surprisingly, all three of those players are now gone with WR Amari Cooper brought in to replace them.

The two holdovers slotted between Hooper and Higgins, Donovan Peoples-Jones and David Njoku, had 17.6 and 13.2 yards per reception in 2021.

Overall, Cleveland’s pass catchers were third worst in the league at creating separation on routes:

Again, that data is not overly surprising if you watched the games last year. The Browns are hoping that Cooper’s addition, development from Peoples-Jones and WR Anthony Schwartz along with the drafting of WR David Bell will improve this data for 2022 and produce a more explosive offense.

Data: Holding calls, sack rate continue to drop in offense-led NFL

It won’t surprise Myles Garrett or Browns fans but data shows the NFL holding calls and sack rate continue to drop as offense is emphasized:

The NFL is a money-making machine and has focused on making sure that continues for years to come. Whether it is forrays into fantasy football, betting or making events out of things like the combine and draft, the league knows how to market and monetize almost everything it does.

For more than a decade one of the ways the NFL has worked to increase interest in the game is by increasing offensive production. Defense no longer wins championships in professional football. Rules have been instituted to free up receivers from physical play, especially over the middle, and quarterbacks are, mostly, protected like they are a glass sculpture in the pocket.

There have also been other subtle changes where the NFL seems to be emphasizing or deemphasizing things to the officials to push the game in a higher-scoring direction. According to some data, that includes less holding penalties which has correlated to a low sack rate:

That an offensive penalty has that big of an impact on the outcome of a drive is no surprise but interesting to see in writing.

For the Cleveland Browns, especially Myles Garrett, the lack of holding calls is not surprising. In many games, Garrett seems to be held around the neck or waist in clear view of an official. Garrett has voiced his frustrations in being treated like Shaquille O’Neal was in the NBA.

While it may frustrate fans, especially those of a team with great pass rushers, the league seems likely to continue to push for more offense. While the old axiom says ‘you can call holding on almost every play,’ the continued deemphasis could erode confidence in the league’s officials.

Data from NFL Playoff participants push against ‘balanced offense required’

In 2021, making the playoffs was far easier if you threw more often than expected. Running the ball more than expected worked for four teams. What didn’t work? A truly balanced offense compared to the rest of the league:

There are many ways to analyze football. All of them can be important if used correctly. All of them can also be used primarily to push agendas, as well. In many ways, that has led to the conversations between “tape” study and “analytics” study to making decisions.

The Cleveland Browns have been at the center of that discussion starting with the hiring of Paul DePodesta and Sashi Brown years ago. They pivoted to “football guy” John Dorsey before finding a middle ground, at some level, with Andrew Berry.

Brown’s recent return to the NFL as the president of the Baltimore Ravens seems to validate Cleveland’s decision to hire him years ago.

One way that data can be used inappropriately is when it comes to rushing attempts. Often, teams winning games will run the ball late in the game to help burn time off the clock. That can lead to the incorrect statement that “teams win by running the football.” What is more true is that “winning teams run the football.”

One way data is evaluated to try to help address is to look at what is expected to happen on a certain play. For example, on 3rd and 1, a run is expected. On 3rd and 15, a pass is expected based on recent trends.

With that in mind, a data set showed us that balanced offenses, that do what is expected, barely made the playoffs this year in the NFL. Instead, 10 of the 14 playoff participants passed the ball more often than expected. The other four teams ran the ball more often than expected:

Figuring out the “why” behind the data is the tough thing for NFL teams. Not every team can just decide to throw the ball at the level of Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Buffalo. In the same way, not every team can decide to run the ball at the rate of San Francisco, Philadelphia and Tennessee.

While it is obvious that passing the ball is the best way of making the playoffs and Super Bowl in the last decade, teams like the Cleveland Browns may not be set up to win that way. Instead, perhaps, the Browns must take the more difficult path to win despite running the ball more often than expected. In fact, running it more than they did last year.

For the 2021 season, there were 13 more balanced offenses between Arizona and New England that didn’t make the playoffs. For Cleveland, seeking balance may not be the answer. Going all in as a running team or taking a huge swing in the other direction to throw more often seems to be the answer.

Date: Defense doesn’t win championships anymore

The last 11 Super Bowls’ participants tell a story: Offense wins championships. More specifically, passing offense wins championships:

The Cincinnati Bengals and the Los Angeles Rams square off in this year’s Super Bowl this Sunday. While some schools near Cincinnati have cancelled classes for the following Monday, calling it a Snow-Dey, Cleveland Browns fans throughout the state of Ohio are left out in the cold.

For years, the AFC North has been considered a “ground and pound where defense matters” division. Narratives around cold weather, snow and the legacy of being “tough” lead to fans and media prioritizing rushing attacks and defense.

The statement “defense wins championships” has been echoed throughout the sport since Paul “Bear” Bryant uttered them all those years ago.

That may have been true for a long time but the NFL, as well as the NBA and MLB, have tried to do everything they can to incentivize offense over the last couple of decades. The real saying now should be “Offense sells tickets, gear and ad revenue.”

Due to the continual tweaking of the rules that almost always favor the offense, often under the guise of safety, it may no longer be true that “defense wins championships.” A look at Super Bowl participants since 2011 shows very clearly that almost always only great offenses make the big game:

The tweet provides the context, 19 of the 22 teams were top ten in offense. Only 10 of the 22 teams were top ten in defense. In fact, four of those teams were not even in the top 20 in defense.

This year’s Bengals are the outlier as the only team to not be top 10 in either offense or defense but still make the Super Bowl. They join Seattle’s 2013 team and Denver’s 2015 team, both defensive juggernauts, as the three teams to make the championship game without a top-flight offense.

Ben Baldwin took the data a step further by focusing just on the passing game. Only two teams made the Super Bowl without a top 10 passing attack:

 

Similar to the first chart, 11 teams made the Super Bowl despite not having a top 10 passing defense.

Based on the last 11 Super Bowls, offense wins conference championships and, more specifically, passing offense wins conference championships and gets teams to the Super Bowl. The Cleveland Browns may be taking notes.

Browns Stefanski avoiding use of a specific ineffective play so far in 2021

New data suggests that outside receiver screens are ineffective and, so far in 2021, (not surprisingly) Stefanski is not calling that play:

The Cleveland Browns and their fanbase believe that the team got it right when hiring Kevin Stefanski to be their head coach. Shortly after, the Browns brought in Andrew Berry as general manager and beautiful chemistry has ensued.

The success on the field in the pair’s first season and three games together has shone brightly in the NFL, not to mention compared to Cleveland’s recent history. Even questioning their handling of one situation, it must be noted that they deserve more than a fair share of the benefit of the doubt.

It has been in so many details that the Browns are getting it right. From drafting, free agency, limiting drama, etc, Cleveland’s bosses have gotten it right.

Down to the littlest of things. As noted, Stefanski and Berry value information, often distilled down to the word “analytics,” to try to help them make decisions. One of the details where information is very helpful is play calling.

A new article from Pro Football Focus shows that the use of outside wide receiver screens is an inefficient play:

(The article explains how the data was analyzed for those who value that information.)

The author tries to work through the available data to try to uncover more about the success, or lack of, from different screen types. He postulates that outside receiver screens often fail due to, primarily, other receivers responsible for blocking for them while other screenplays have offensive linemen holding that responsibility.

Using five years of data to create the sample size helps give value to the above findings.

Do the Browns have access to this data? Most likely. Does it impact their play calling? Hard to say but, so far in 2021, Stefanski has not called an outside receiver screen:

It is possible that the return of Odell Beckham Jr. and the continued development of rookie speedster Anthony Schwartz could lead to a change in usage. However, it seems unlikely that Stefanski and company would make them a big part of their play calling sheet.

Anti-doping agency issues four-year sports ban for Russia

Russia has been banned from all major sporting events in the next four years – including the 2020 Summer Olympics and the 2022 World Cup.

Russia has been banned from all major sporting events in the next four years – including the 2020 Summer Olympics and the 2022 World Cup.