Make or break: Can Daniel Jones get on track in 2024?

The odds are majorly stacked against Jones as he fights for his NFL future.

The saga of New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones has been a divisive one after the sixth-year quarterback was given a four-year, $160 million contract extension after the 2022 season. With a history of neck injuries and coming off a torn ACL that ended his 2023 season after just six games, there are a slew of questions when it comes to his value – both in fantasy football leagues and to the Giants organization.

In 2022 – Jones’ fourth season – he finally showed the kind of production the Giants had been looking for. In 16 games, Jones threw for 3,205 yards and 15 touchdowns and, more importantly for fantasy managers, rushed 120 times for 708 yards and seven more TDs. In terms of fantasy points per game, those were top-10 numbers in 2022. However, it didn’t last.

In six games last season prior to his injury, Jones threw for just 909 yards with two TD passes and six interceptions and looked awful as he was sacked 30 times behind a makeshift offensive line. At that rate, had he played the entire season, he would have been sacked 85 times, blowing past the current single-season high of 76 by Houston’s David Carr in 2002.

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The Giants made a lot of moves in the offseason to shore up the offensive line and used the the ninth overall pick to select wide receiver Malik Nabers. Nabers will be the first legitimate top-end receiver Jones has played with during his Giants career. The additions to the offense may merely negate the decision not to keep running back Saquon Barkley, who left for division-rival Philadelphia in free agency. Not only was Barkley the backbone of the Giants running game, he also was critical as a receiver coming out of the backfield.

The Giants didn’t get involved in the quarterback frenzy atop the first round of this year’s draft, but they did hedge their bets by signing quarterback Drew Lock to back up Jones. After placing too much trust in Jones heading into last season, which led to short-lived Tommy DeVito era in New York, the Giants aren’t taking that chance again in the event Jones stinks up the joint this season.

Fantasy football outlook

Jones, who isn’t expected to land on the Physically Unable to Perform list, is currently mired in ADP rankings in the 25-30 range, depending on your source of choice – a ranking that would leave him undrafted in 12-team leagues with two quarterbacks.

He does bring a bit of upside with his running ability, although that’s now in doubt following ACL reconstruction. The reality is Jones has thrown just 62 touchdown passes with 40 interceptions in 60 career games with the Giants. Worse yet, he’s coming off the poorest season of career, posting a passer rating of just 70.5 – the lowest of his career by almost 10 points.

The biggest issue with Jones is the onerous hit the Giants take on the salary cap for his contract extension. Last year, he counted just $15.44 million against the salary cap. This year, that number jumps to $47.86, and the Giants can’t release him because he would count for $47.11 million as a post-June 1 dead-cap hit.

Although he has flashed ability at times to be a decent NFL quarterback, it hasn’t been enough to warrant endorsing him as a player you want on your fantasy roster.

4 takeaways from Giants QB Daniels Jones’ contract extension press conference

New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones signed a four-year, $160 million contract. Here are four takeaways from his presser announcing the deal.

The New York Giants inked former 2019 first-round quarterback Daniel Jones to a four-year, $160 million contract March 7.

The Giants and Jones were flirting with the 4:00 p.m. ET deadline. Otherwise Jones would have been the Giants’ franchise tag player.

“I was in the building,” Jones said. “I think it was 3:53 or 3:54, something like that. It was right up next to the deadline.”

Jones compiled a 9-6-1 record for the Giants last season as part of their 9-7-1 campaign. The former Duke product led New York to its first playoff win since 2011 with a 31-24 win over the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC wild-card.

Here are four takeaways from Jones’ presser.

Daniel Jones’ fall back to earth should tell the Giants all they need to know

Daniel Jones had a nice 2022 season, but the Giants’ blowout loss to the Eagles proved that Big Blue simply needs a better quarterback.

If you want to know how coaches feel about their quarterbacks, you can listen to what they say, but it makes more sense to watch what they do.

In the case of the New York Giants, there was a play in their 38-7 blowout loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Saturday’s divisional-round game that may have been the final statement from head coach Brian Daboll regarding quarterback Daniel Jones. With 13:21 left in the fourth quarter, the Giants had fourth-and-6 from their own 42-yard line. Daboll was already down 28-7, so if there was a play in his quiver here that could have extended the game, he certainly would have used it.

He didn’t. Daboll brought out punter Jamie Gillan to boot the ball away, and that was essentially the end of the game.

“[The Eagles] hadn’t scored yet in that half,” Daboll said after the game about that particular decision. “I’m counting on the defense maybe just from so backed up to maybe get a three-and-out.  Then they had a long drive. We probably could’ve went for it, but we weren’t executing well enough to be there, so that’s what we did.”

On the two plays before that, Jones had taken a Fletcher Cox sack, and thrown incomplete to receiver Darius Slayton. And this looked like the end of the skill set inflation Daboll and offensive coordinator Mike Kafla had performed on Jones’ behalf.

In the end, Jones completed 15 of 27 passes for 135 yards, no touchdowns, an interception, five sacks, and a passer rating 53.8. Out of the hothouse and into the spotlight, and against a defense that absolutely had his number, Jones reverted to his level.

Throughout the 2022 season, the Giants’ first-year coaching staff did everything they possibly could to maximize what Jones had to offer. They took his abilities as a runner, and spammed designed runs with that as much as possible. They had established an overall principle in which Jones would look for his first read, and if it wasn’t clear, he should look for green grass. It was basically the kind of thing you would set up for a mobile rookie quarterback — which, in his fourth NFL season, Jones basically was in the context of having a competent set of coached working with him.

The Eagles were all too aware of this, and they game-planned accordingly.

“Just taking away that first read because we knew they wanted to take us out of the game by getting away quick throws and by him extending the play with his legs,” Eagles defensive end Brandon Graham said after. “When you look at [Bills quarterback] Josh Allen and you see the system that he runs, it’s similar to what [the Giants] run; the same thing. We just played off that. Take away his first [read] and get him to move around. We gave ourselves a chance to put pressure on him. I think it’s a credit to [Eagles Defensive Coordinator Jonathan Gannon] and the coaches.”

Daboll of course worked with Allen as the Bills’ offensive coordinator before he got the Giants job; his ability to turn Allen from wild stallion to fully-developed professional quarterback is a primary reason he got that gig in the first place. But Allen came into the league with a ridiculous set of raw tools, which Jones does not have. Daboll and Kafka did what good coaches do: They made the most of what they inherited.

But Jones is still the quarterback who posted DVOA of at least -10.0% in each of his first three seasons, which throughout recent NFL history has been an absolute barometer of future bustitude. The other quarterbacks to have such a poor DVOA metric over their first three seasons?

Jeff George (1990-1992), Rick Mirer (1993-1995), Tim Couch (1999-2001), and Sam Darnold (2018-2020).

You may draw your own conclusions from that.

Jones came into Saturday’s game against the Eagles ranked 20th in the NFL in DVOA (+1.1%), but let’s be real. Nobody is looking at that as an indicator that the REAL OMG DANIEL JONES has been unleashed. The fact that Daboll is the clubhouse leader for Coach of the Year is the more obvious story, and justifiably so. There is nothing about Jones’ game that has you thinking he’s on his way to elite status; most likely, his future is either as a disappearing act with the wrong staff, or as a middle-tier starter in the best possible circumstances — which we’ve already seen to a degree.

Because the Giants didn’t pick up Jones’ fifth-year option, he’ll be a free agent when the 2023 league year begins. The Giants have an interesting choice there, but it’s not really a pressing issue if they can find a quarterback who can transcend what Jones is capable of. Based on the tape, which is the best thing we have to go on, that’s not going to be incredibly hard. Jones is a nice player who gives you certain schematic options, but there are also chunks of your playbook you’re simply not going to be able to use.

Daboll was asked specifically whether he saw Jones as the (or a) quarterback of the future.

“All these conversations, we are going to have those. We have a long offseason. There is a time and place to have all those conversations and tonight is not it.”

Perhaps that’s all that needs to be said. Daboll had already made all the statements he needed to make.