The Dallas Mavericks (9-7) meet the Los Angeles Clippers (10-7) Tuesday at Staples Center for a 10:30 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Clippers odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Dallas is wrapping up its second straight two-game miniseries and has lost three straight road games. The Mavs dropped back-to-back games at the Phoenix Suns last week and lost at the Clippers 97-91 Sunday. Dallas is 7-9 ATS and 5-10-1 O/U with the 21st-ranked net rating.
The Clippers are 4-3 overall and 3-4 ATS over the past two weeks with the latest being the 97-91 victory over Dallas Sunday. L.A.’s defense ranks second in efficiency, sixth in effective field goal shooting and first in FT/FGA rate. The Clippers are 9-8 ATS and 7-10 O/U with the sixth-best net rating.
L.A. beat Dallas in their first meeting of the season, and the Clippers won their best-of-seven Western Conference first-round playoff series vs. the Mavs last year despite losing the first two games at home.
Mavericks at Clippers odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:15 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Mavericks +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Clippers -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Mavericks +4.5 (-105) | Clippers -4.5 (-120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 209.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Mavericks at Clippers key injuries
Mavericks
- PF Maxi Kleber (oblique) probable
- PG Luka Doncic (ankle) questionable
Clippers
- PF Marcus Morris (knee) probable
- PF Nicolas Batum (health and safety protocols) out
- SF Kawhi Leonard (knee) out
Mavericks at Clippers odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Clippers 104, Mavericks 97
Money line
PASS because I only “lean” towards L.A. covering this game and don’t like the Clippers (-200) enough to risk double my potential profit for an outright victory. That said, the Clippers have been awesome at home this season, and the Mavs have struggled thus far on the road.
For instance, L.A. is 8-3 at home with the eighth-best efficiency differential and the second-best defensive efficiency (according to CleaningTheGlass.com). While Dallas is 3-6 on the road with the 21st-ranked efficiency differential and a minus-4.7 spread differential.
Against the spread
“LEAN” to the CLIPPERS -5.5 (-108) because they have one of the best defenses in the league and match up very well against Dallas’s offense.
According to CleaningTheGlass.com, the Mavs attempt the eighth-highest volume of mid-range field goals and the ninth-highest volume of 3-pointers. But, the Clippers are 10th in defensive field goal shooting vs. mid-range jumpers and 12th in defensive 3-point percentage.
Furthermore, Dallas runs its offense through the post at the third-highest frequency but L.A. has the fifth-best defensive efficiency vs. post-up offense.
On top of that, the Clippers are getting back an above-average defensive wing in Morris, who is a body that L.A. can throw in front of Luka, should he return Tuesday.
Also, there could be value in fading the Mavs if Luka returns because Luka’s on-off net efficiency grades in the 13th percentile at minus-14 points per 100 possessions (CleaningTheGlass.com). And Luka could be an even bigger anchor to Dallas’s net efficiency if plays at less than 100% health.
Over/Under
BET the UNDER 209.5 (-108) for 1 unit because L.A.’s defense should make it hard on Dallas to execute offensively. In addition, the Mavericks do a good job defending what the Clippers do frequently.
For example, L.A. plays the sixth-highest frequency of isolation offense and gets out in transition at the sixth-highest rate.
But, Dallas’s transition defense is seventh in efficiency, and the Mavs have the ninth-best defensive efficiency vs. isolation offense.
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