Tag: Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets odds predictions pick betting line spread

The Dallas Mavericks (19-17) visit the Denver Nuggets (22-15) Saturday at Ball Arena for a 10 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we analyze the Mavericks-Nuggets odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.

Dallas had its four-game winning streak snapped by the Oklahoma City Thunder in a 116-108 loss as a 2-point favorite Thursday. The Mavericks were without All-Star PG Luka Doncic and PF Kristaps Porzingis who were rested in the second half of a back-to-back for Dallas.

The Nuggets have won five in a row and covered the spread in four of those five games. All were on the road, including a 103-102 win over the Memphis Grizzlies as 2.5-point favorites in their first game back from the All-Star break Friday.

This is the rubber match of the three-game regular-season series between the Mavericks and Nuggets. Each team has won and covered the spread once.

Mavericks at Nuggets: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:10 p.m. ET.

• Money line: Mavericks -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Nuggets +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
• Against the spread/ATS: Mavericks -1.5 (-110) | Nuggets +1.5 (-110)
• Over/Under: 225.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Mavericks at Nuggets: Key injuries

Mavericks

• None affecting the betting lines.

Nuggets

• PF JaMychal Green (illness) probable
• C Nikola Jokic (ankle) questionable
• SG Monte Morris (quadriceps) questionable
• SG Garry Harris (thigh) out

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Mavericks at Nuggets: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Mavericks 118, Nuggets 109

Money line (ML)

Even though this is technically the “money line” section, there are a few ATS trends that are applicable since the spread and money line are nearly identical.

This is a good spot for Dallas. The Mavs are 5-3 ATS as road favorites, 5-1 ATS in games where they have a rest advantage and Denver is 4-7 ATS as a home favorite.

The rest split is additionally important considering Doncic and Porzingis rested in the Mavs’ previous game. Denver played last night and Nuggets Jokic is questionable.

Also, Doncic has absolutely dominated Denver this season; he’s averaging 36.5 points on 53.3% shooting with 10.0 rebounds and 14.5 assists per game in the two Mavericks-Nuggets meetings.

Finally, this is a Pros vs. Joes situation in the betting market. More than 70% of the money bet is on the Mavs but nearly 60% of the bets placed are on the Nuggets, according to Pregame.com.

Since the sharp side of the market is the money column, let’s follow the money and BET MAVERICKS (-125) for 1.25 units.

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Against the spread (ATS)

PASS since the money line is only slightly more expensive than the spread.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS since BetMGM‘s projected total is only 1.5 points below my predicted score so there isn’t enough value there for me to bet the Over.

You could make a case Jokic’s absence hurts both Denver’s defense and offense or Nuggets SF Michael Porter Jr. and PG Jamal Murray could erupt with more usage freeing up.

Want some action on this one? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow @Geoffery_Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Also see:

• Hoops Hype rumors: Mavericks | Nuggets

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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The Dallas Mavericks (3-4) square off with the Denver Nuggets (3-4) Thursday at Ball Arena. Tip-off is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Mavericks-Nuggets NBA betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

The Mavericks pasted the Houston Rockets 113-100 as 4-point road underdogs Monday. Dallas had more fast-break points, more points in the paint, shot better from everywhere on the floor, out-rebounded Houston 57-41 and dished out seven more assists … Essentially outclassed the Rockets in every way.

Denver righted the ship following back-to-back losses by defeating the Minnesota Timberwolves in both legs of a home/away doubleheader Jan. 3 and 5. The Nuggets covered the spread in the first game vs. the Timberwolves (a 124-109 win as 8.5-point road favorites) but lost against the spread in the second meeting (a 123-116 win as 10.5-point home favorites).

Dallas beat Denver 2-1 (2-1 against the spread) in the 2019-20 season series. Three of the last four Mavericks-Nuggets games have been decided by 3 or fewer points.

Mavericks at Nuggets: Betting odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.

• Money line: Mavericks +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Nuggets -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
• Against the spread/ATS: Mavericks +2.5 (-105) | Nuggets -2.5 (-115)
• Over/Under: 223.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Mavericks at Nuggets: Key Injuries

Mavericks

• PG Trey Burke (illness) out
• PF Kristaps Porzingis (knee) out

Nuggets

• SF Michael Porter Jr. (health and safety protocols) questionable

Special NBA Betting Promotion!

Place a $1 bet on either team’s money line, WIN an additional $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a 3-pointer during the game today. Promotion available in CO, IN, NJ, TN and WV. IA and PA residents, don’t miss BetMGM‘s risk-free, first-bet offer! MI residents, BetMGM is coming to your state soon — register early for special promotion.

Place your legal, online sports bets at BetMGM! Terms and conditions apply. Bet now!

Mavericks at Nuggets: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Mavericks 116, Nuggets 110

Money line (ML)

While scrolling through our Mavericks-Nuggets photo inventory, I noticed there were very few pictures of Denver PG Jamal Murray guarding Luka Doncic but I saw a lot of pictures of former Nuggets players SFs Torrey Craig and Jerami Grant checking Luka.

Those former Nuggets players were their best wing defenders over recent seasons and despite Doncic’s official PG designation, he’s mostly guarded by the opponent’s athletic wings.

Well, as a team Denver has been terrible defensively thus far—second-to-last in the NBA in defensive rating (115.5) and here’s a look at the candidate’s to guard Luka Thursday: Murray (118 defensive rating), SG Gary Harris (118 defensive rating) and SF Will Barton (115 defensive rating).

Luka’s career stats vs. the Nuggets are subpar for him: 22.8 points per game on 40.6% field-goal shooting, 21.1% from 3-point range and a 106 offensive rating. Now that Denver no longer has reliable defensive wings, I think Doncic gets anywhere he wants against the Nuggets.

TAKE MAVERICKS (+125) for a half-unit because we are betting the spread heavier.

Against the spread (ATS)

Dallas is the right side here and my strategy is to BET MAVERICKS +2.5 (-105) for 1.5 units on top of the light money line wager I made.

We should cash both tickets but it’s better to be safe than sorry. It’s noteworthy we are fading the market and if pro-Nuggets action keeps coming we might get more points closer to tip-off.

Over/Under (O/U)

I lean OVER 223.5 (-110) for a quarter-unit with a disclaimer. According to Pregame.com, more than 80% of the market is betting Over in Mavericks-Nuggets, yet the total has been pushed down from a 226-point opener, which tells me BetMGM feels good about their projection for the total. That makes me nervous and I’d either bet the total lightly or not at all.

Want some action on this one? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Also see: 

• Rookie Wire Power Rankings: James Wiseman, LaMelo Ball lead the way (Rookie Wire)
• Hoops Hype Rumors: Mavericks | Nuggets

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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