Tag: Dak Prescott

Darnold, Mayfield, Goff QB success show Cowboys why coaches matter

Cowboys should notice NFL teams are hiring offensive minds who help QBs rather than coaches who lean on QBs.

Sam Darnold, Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield have been playing like three of the best quarterbacks in the NFL this season. Such hasn’t always been the case with these maligned signal callers. All three have had noteworthy seasons of struggle. All three are playing for teams other than the one who drafted them. And all three have, at one point in time, been labeled a “bust.” Yet all three currently rank as top 10 QBs in matters of EPA/play + CPOE composite this season.

Mayfield, a former No. 1 overall selection of the Browns, has enjoyed a career resurgence since moving to Tampa. After plateauing in Cleveland, the Browns decided the embattled Deshaun Watson offered a better future for their franchise than Mayfield and effectively made the swap at QB. All that’s happened since is a major Mayfield rebound and karmic freefall for Watson.

Goff, also a former No. 1 overall selection, came to the Lions by way of Los Angeles. With the Rams he made the Pro Bowl and the Super Bowl, but those accomplishments came with an insulting asterisk. Goff wasn’t remotely decent until coaching prodigy Sean McVay came to the Rams, and even then, he was exposed in the Super Bowl when Bill Belichick realized McVay was making all the pre-snap reads. By the time Goff left LA he was considered a liability rather than an asset. McVay sent a boatload of draft picks for QB Matthew Stafford and Detroit was essentially forced to take on Goff. All that’s happened since is Goff now leads a top five offense, enters the playoffs as the top seed and has made his way into the MVP conversation.

Darnold, once a third overall pick of the Jets, is on his fourth team in seven seasons. The USC product never posted more than seven wins in a single season until he came to Minnesota, and he only accomplished that by accident since it took a season ending injury to starting QB J.J. McCarthy to even give him a chance. Now Darnold leads a top team into the playoffs, has the first Pro Bowl bid of his career and faces a mind-blowing payday in free agency this March.

While it’s possible all of these QBs suddenly figured something out and flipped a career 180 on their own, the real credit belongs to the coaching staffs that unlocked them.

Once upon a time the QB position was as black and white as a checkers board. Good prospects came from pro style offenses in college, they were masters of three and five step drops, they understood progressions, stood tall in the pocket and created on their own when things failed to develop. Occasionally they utilized play-action, used motion, or gained yards on a scramble, but more often than not, it was sink or swim within the pocket and fairly transparent in nature.

These are different times. The days of leaning on the QB are gone because defenses are smarter than they’ve ever been, and not enough transcendent QBs exist. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen may be able to thrive under any system, but the rest of the NFL’s signal callers need a coach helping them, not a coach leaning on them.

Various cheat codes exist in the NFL. Play action, RPOs and read options are nice wrinkles that typically contribute to a higher success rate. Motion at the snap, complementary route combinations, deceptive personnel groups and deceptive offensive formations also make things easier on quarterbacks. In other words, good coaches make things easier for their QBs. It’s what happened with Darnold, Goff and Mayfield and it’s what’s happening all over the NFL.

Even the Canton-bound Aaron Rodgers declined in production when it became clear the Packers were just relying on him to make magic. It wasn’t until Matt LeFleur replaced Mike McCarthy that Rodgers reclaimed his brilliance, and Green Bay joined the modern game we know today. LeFleur is continuing that magic right now with Jordan Love, a prospect scouts were universally lukewarm about entering the draft.

Looking around the NFL it’s abundantly clear the majority of the league’s top offenses and NFL’s most successful teams employ offensive coaches who make things easy for their QBs. It begs the question, “why wouldn’t the Cowboys hire a coach who adds value to the team?”

For as much praise as Kyle Shanahan gets around the NFL (and for good reason), his offense isn’t the only brand of offense that makes things easy on his QB. Smart coaches from other coaching trees also lean into strengths based on the personnel available to them. The common trait being all the smart coaches find ways to make things easy on their team’s most important player. They scheme players open. They create deception with their packages and formations. They play-design systematic progressions that offer escape hatches. They gameplan for specific opponents and they adjust in-game and on-the-fly to take advantage of sudden opportunities.

The Cowboys need to be mindful of this when deciding the direction they want to take going forward. McCarthy likes pre-snap motion but has been severely lacking in at-the-snap motion. He’s below the Medoza line on play-action and RPOs as well. McCarthy is good at designing short rub routes but doesn’t do much else to scheme his receivers open. He also doesn’t design many plays with strategic progressions, often rolling his QB out on a bootleg with just one or two viable targets available. Personnel packages and formations are overall fairly transparent. The Cowboys offense isn’t that hard to plan for nor are they tough to read on the field.

Finding a head coach, or at the least an offensive play-designer, who adds value to the offense and makes things easier on his most important player, should be Objective No. 1 for Jerry Jones and Co. this offseason.

Very few people believe Brock Purdy, Tua Tagovailoa, Goff, Darnold, and Mayfield are elite NFL talents, yet players such as these have found ways to repeatedly post elite level performances. Prescott, someone who by his own rights rates higher than all of those examples, stands to gain enormously if just put into a similar situation of supportive coaching.

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Do the Cowboys have a surprise planned for Commanders?

Dallas could be making a QB change for all the wrong reasons.

The Washington Commanders (11-5) face the Dallas Cowboys (7-9) on Sunday in the regular-season finale. Dallas won the first meeting, 34-26, after a wild finish in Week 12.

That’s the last time Washington lost. The Commanders have won four in a row, clinched a playoff berth, and are looking to lock up the NFC’s No. 6 seed with a win on Sunday in Jerry World.

The Cowboys have nothing to play for on Sunday and will be without star wide receiver CeeDee Lamb. That means quarterback Cooper Rush, who replaced the injured Dak Prescott back in Week 9, will be without one of the NFL’s best wide receivers.

What if Rush isn’t under center for Dallas on Sunday against the Commanders? According to Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network, fourth-year quarterback Trey Lance is expected to play “significant snaps” against Washington.

It’s the right move for the Cowboys, and they probably should’ve done it two weeks ago when they were officially eliminated from playoff contention. That’s not a knock on Rush, who played well. Dallas actually had a better record with Rush under center this season than with Prescott.

A former top-five pick of the 49ers, the Cowboys made a questionable trade for Lance two years ago, paying his rookie contract and having him serve as the No. 3 quarterback.

Lance is an excellent runner with a strong arm, but he has a long way to go before he proves he is an NFL starting quarterback. The 49ers gave up on Lance after eight games and four starts despite moving up in the draft for him in 2021.

While seeing what Lance can do is the right move, it sounds more like the Cowboys want to avoid paying Rush a $500,000 bonus for participating in 55% of Dallas’ offensive snaps in 2024. Rush earned $250K of that bonus for playing 45% of the offensive snaps. He’s currently at 52.3% for the season.

Some things will never change.

Meanwhile, the Commanders have several players looking to earn achievable incentives in Sunday’s game. Do you think owner Josh Harris would tell coach Dan Quinn to bench Dante Fowler, Zach Ertz, or Frankie Luvu? Of course not. The former owner would have, you know, Jerry Jones’ buddy.

Biggest dead money cap hits illustrate Cowboys’ decision-making mistakes

The Cowboys have repeatedly gambled and lost when signing sub-superstar talent on speculative deals

Contrary to popular belief, signing superstar players to big deals rarely gets an NFL team in trouble. No matter what the Cowboys front office tries to say, there’s always room for talent under the salary cap.

Good players who meet or exceed the expectations of their contract are value-added, pure and simple. They take on a bigger proportion of the cap, but they also often take heavier snap counts and make bigger contributions. Teams can save money in rotations and at other positions if highly paid players simply live up to their billing.

Best of all, superstars are usually no brainers. Dak Prescott was an obvious re-signing this past summer. CeeDee Lamb was also an obvious re-signing this past summer. Micah Parsons and Tyler Smith will be obvious re-signings in the near future, while DaRon Bland and DeMarvion Overshown are trending to be obvious re-signings soon after. Health permitting, they will all be well worth the price of doing business.

Where teams get themselves into trouble is by signing players who underachieve and don’t live up to the expectations of their contracts. That’s what really kills the salary cap. Many of these bad contracts are speculative in nature. They involve middleclass players who have shown enough to indicate they could be great but just haven’t done so consistently enough to make it a sure thing. They are calculated gambles by the front office. It’s here where the Cowboys have struggled.

In recent seasons the Cowboys gambled on players like Michael Gallup and Terence Steele. Both offered inconsistent performances throughout their careers, and both were coming off major injury. They represented significant speculation from the Cowboys front office when they were re-signed and now stand as cautionary tales moving forward.

Looking at things today, the biggest dead money cap hit the Cowboys face is from Gallup. Signed to a five-year, $57,500,000 contract in 2022, Gallup fell well short of the expectations implied in the deal. After contributing just 73 receptions for 842 yards, Gallup was released two years into the deal. The contract was a gamble from the start since Gallup had only once posted a thousand-yard season and he was now coming off a significant knee injury. He represents $4,350,000 in dead money this season and a team-leading $8,700,000 in 2025.

Steele is another player the Cowboys seemingly gambled on and lost. After suffering a major knee injury late in 2022, the Cowboys signed him to a five-year, $87,500,000 extension to be their cornerstone at right tackle. Like Gallup, Steele was gamble from the start. His last ten games of 2022 he showed he was a dominant force in the running game but his game play in the years leading up to that were far more pedestrian. In fact, his pass protection was some of the worst in the NFL.

Steele now potentially faces the axe in 2025. At a cap charge of over $18 million next season, Steele is one of the highest paid players on the Cowboys roster. He has an out in his contract in 2025, but it would come with an immediate cap charge of $13,500,000 in dead money. The Cowboys could designate him a post June 1 cut but that would only push more dead money into future years.

The lesson to be learned is sub-superstar contracts that involve speculation are far riskier than max-level contracts that simply demand health and a continued level of play. The Cowboys have a poor track record when it comes to speculating the future of their own midlevel performers and it’s come back to bite them over and over again.

Does this mean the death of midlevel contracts going forward?

Possibly. With so many star players set to make star money, the Cowboys may just round out their roster with rookie contracts and bargain bin pickups. It could mean non-superstar players like Osa Odighizuwa, Chauncey Golston and Rico Dowdle (all pending free agents in 2025) are too expensive and/or risky to bring back.

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Commanders stumbled, had a chance, but blew it again

A woeful effort from start to finish.

The Commanders sucked on Sunday.

Well, at least for the first three and a half quarters, Dallas dominated, leading 20-9. Watching the Commanders on Sunday, words like frustrating, aggravating, and infuriating come to mind.

Then, the Commanders pulled off another miracle late; however, they blew the extra point and allowed an onside kickoff touchdown return, falling to the woeful Cowboys 34-26.

Washington missed two extra points; the last one was an absolute heartbreaker.

Twenty-one seconds remained with Washington trailing 27-20 when Jayden Daniels connected with Terry McLaurin, who got a block, turned on the jets and scored from 86 yards, making the score 27-26.

Austin Seibert then missed the extra-point attempt. It was a bad snap, and Seibert, while approaching the ball, had to watch Tress Way get control of the ball and place it down in time. Seibert then pulled the kick left.

Washington now had to attempt an onside kick which was then returned by Juanyeh Thomas 43 yards for the clinching touchdown and the final 34-26 margin.

The Cowboys entered the game with a 3-7 record. Yet the Commanders, who entered at 7-4, were the home team and played a step slow all day and let Dallas take the game to them from the start.

Three weeks ago, the Commanders were 7-2 and the NFC’s No. 2 seed for the playoffs.

Based on Sunday’s performance, Washington is 7-5, having lost three consecutive games and looking progressively worse each game.

Face it, Commanders fans, if not for the lucky ‘Hail Mary,’ this team would be 6-6 and losers of four of their last five. I love this franchise, but that is who they are right now.

Dallas came into today at the very bottom of NFL teams in rushing offense. Its rushing defense wasn’t any better, also one of the worst in the league. The Cowboys were without quarterback Dak Prescott, but backup Cooper Rush completed 24 of 32 attempts for 247 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions.

Two of the Cowboys touchdowns in the final quarter were kickoff returns.

 

Prediction and betting odds for Commanders vs. Cowboys in Week 12

Analyzing Commanders vs. Cowboys game with odds and lines, predictions and best bets.

The Washington Commanders (7-4) look to return to winning on Sunday as they host the reeling Dallas Cowboys (3-7) at Northwest Stadium.

The Commanders are coming off back-to-back one-score losses to Pittsburgh and Philadelphia and need a win to remain a game and a half behind the Eagles in the NFC East.

Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels looks to rebound after his worst NFL start against one of the NFL’s worst defenses. Meanwhile, Cooper Rush makes his third straight start for Dallas in place of the injured Dak Prescott.

Below are the latest odds and our final score prediction for Sunday.

Commanders vs. Cowboys game odds:

All NFL Odds via BetMGM:

  • Point spread: Commanders -10.5 (-110) / Cowboys +10.5 (-110)
  • Money line: Commanders -600 / Cowboys +450
  • Over-under: 45 (O: -110 / U: -110)

Commanders vs. Cowboys injury updates:

  • Commanders CB Marshon Lattimore: Out (hamstring)
  • Cowboys CB Trevon Diggs: Out (groin, knee)
  • Cowboys G Zack Martin: Out (ankle, shoulder)
  • Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson: Out (concussion)
  • Cowboys WR Brandin Cooks: Out (knee)

Commanders vs. Cowboys prediction, pick:

Bryan Manning:

There is no reason to think Dallas should win this game. Everything is in Washington’s favor, including the Cowboys’ recent play and injury list. In 2024, the Commanders are simply the better team, with the better quarterback and coaching staff. On Sunday, Washington takes care of business to improve to 8-4. Commanders 34, Cowboys 13

Ivan Lambert:

The Cowboys have won 12 games in three consecutive seasons, while the Commanders have yet to accomplish a winning season since the 2015 and 2016 seasons led by Kirk Cousins. By the way, for the Cowboys, those three seasons were the same three seasons that their defensive coordinator was current Commanders head coach Dan Quinn.

Here we are in the 2024 season and who would have thought the Cowboys would be 3-7 and the Commanders would be 7-4?

Yet, here we are.

The Commanders have lost two straight and have everything to play for regarding earning a playoff spot. In addition, the Commanders have run the ball well this season, while the Cowboys have not defended the run well. Even more, the Cowboys will be without Dak Prescott and future Hall of Fame lineman Zach Martin.

The Cowboys are already thinking about who the new coach will be next season and how high they will be selecting in the 2025 NFL Draft. The Commanders have Dan Quinn and Jayden Daniels and are out to prove they belong in the playoff race. Commanders 30, Cowboys 13

Serena Burks: I don’t want to say this is a guaranteed win for the Commanders, but if they don’t win, there’s a problem. The Cowboys are not a good football team with Dak Prescott. Without him, it’s worse. Their defense isn’t capable of taking over, especially against the likes of Jayden Daniels and Brian Robinson. The Cowboys might put up a fight, but the Commanders will have no real trouble winning this divisional game. Commanders 34, Cowboys 13

Commanders vs. Cowboys channel, start time, streaming:

The Commanders vs. Cowboys game starts at 1:00 p.m. ET and can be seen on FOX.

Get more betting analysis and predictions at Sportsbook Wire.

Are the Cowboys tanking? Dallas with several starters out vs. Commanders

The Cowboys receive some tough injury news ahead of Sunday vs. Commanders.

Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones never gives up on a season. Despite how bleak a Dallas season looks, Jones makes the media rounds and insists everything is fine.

The current season isn’t going well for America’s Team. The Cowboys are 3-7 and have lost five in a row heading into Sunday’s NFC East battle against the upstart Washington Commanders (7-4).

Dallas has struggled all season. The defense is one of the NFL’s worst and, coincidentally enough, faces former defensive coordinator Dan Quinn on Sunday. Quinn led the Cowboys to three consecutive top-five defensive finishes before taking Washington’s head coaching position.

The Cowboys placed quarterback Dak Prescott on season-ending injured reserve last week, only two months after Prescott signed a record contract. Prescott wasn’t playing well before injuring his hamstring.

We know Prescott is out for Sunday’s game against the Commanders, but he’s not the only one. Dallas had a long injury on Friday’s final injury report.

David Moore of the Dallas Morning News reported Saturday that two of the Cowboys’ top players, guard Zack Martin and cornerback Trevon Diggs, did not make the trip to Washington. Martin was injured in Monday night’s loss to Houston and was listed as doubtful on the injury report.

Diggs was questionable.

Also, wide receiver Brandin Cooks was not activated from IR and will not play at Washington.

Incredibly, per Todd Archer of ESPN, Dallas will be without its five highest-paid players on Sunday at Washington in terms of 2024 salary cap numbers.

That leads to the question: Has Jones seen enough? One longtime Dallas writer even suggests that the Cowboys may be tanking.

Knowing the way Jones operates, that isn’t very likely. The Cowboys are dealing with several legitimate injuries. And, playing on a short week, Dallas isn’t willing to risk further injury to some of its best players with six weeks remaining in the season after Sunday.

Cowboys to be without $100 million in salary cap players against Commanders

The Cowboys have a ton of money on the sidelines in NFL Week 13

The Dallas Cowboys’ season is sinking if not sunk.

Todd Archer of ESPN posted a great nugget about what Dallas will be without on Sunday when it plays the Washington Commanders.

How about five players that count $100 million toward the salary cap.

That should add to Jerry Jones’ case of indigestion over the 2024 NFL season.

This Cowboy may be the worst to play his position in the entire NFL in 2024

Things have gone from bad to bottom-of-the-barrel worse at the QB position for the Cowboys in 2024. | From @KDDrummondNFL

Things have not been going well for the Dallas Cowboys in 2024. The calendar year started with a chilly, Week 18 road win to clinch the NFC East title in Landover, MD. Nothing good has happened since. The team returned home to be shockingly blown out the water by Green Bay in the wild-card round. The offseason saw free agency malaise, and a failure to bring back their own key guys and no movement for their star players on expiring deals.

When they finally put ink to paper there, injuries began to pile up and a lame-duck coaching staff proved incapable of inspiring the troops. Suffice to say, the Cowboys have earned their 3-7 record. Among the issues for Dallas was runner-up MVP Dak Prescott’s down season, made worse by his season-ending hamstring injury.

Prescott was in the bottom third of NFL quarterback performance this season, but what’s happened since he left has shone a light to how he was keeping things together with duct tape, paper clips and McGyver’s ingenuity.

For his replacement, veteran QB Cooper Rush, is playing like the worst quarterback the NFL has seen in 2024.

Quarterback Adjusted EPA through Week 11

[image or embed]

— Ben Baldwin (@rbsdm.com) November 20, 2024 at 9:05 AM

EPA, or Expected Points Added, measures the impact a play has on the likelihood of scoring. With EPA, yardage, field position, and down and distance all weigh in on what the expected net points would be for the situation. As an example, a first and goal at the one-yard line would represent a higher EP than a third and 10 on your own 20 yard line.

EPA is the difference between the Expected Points (EP) at the beginning of the play compared to the end of the play. It measures the plays impact on the score of the game.

Adjusted EPA factors in the quality of opponent.

Based on his play in the last two-plus games, Rush is the NFL’s worst quarterback in 2024. It’s almost like things couldn’t possibly be made worse by putting Trey Lance in the games.

Cowboys battling numerous injuries ahead of Week 12 vs. Commanders

The Cowboys are dealing with several injuries ahead of Week 12, especially on the offensive line.

It’s been a difficult season for the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas has lost five consecutive games entering their Week 12 matchup against the Washington Commanders, and the injuries have started to pile up.

In addition to losing quarterback Dak Prescott for the season after eight games, the Cowboys have gone without top pass-rushers Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence for a combined 10 games this season.

During Monday’s loss to the Houston Texans, the Cowboys lost five more starters throughout the game, including future Hall of Fame guard Zack Martin.

Martin (ankle), tight end Jake Ferguson (concussion), left tackle Tyler Guyton (shoulder), guard Tyler Smith (ankle) and safety Markquese Bell (shoulder) all left Monday’s game and did not return. With a short week, it will be interesting to see how many Cowboys can play against the Commanders.

With a backup quarterback and three ailing starters on the offensive line, the Cowboys could be in trouble against a Washington defense that has played well lately.

Dallas will reveal its first injury report for Week 12 on Wednesday.

Cowboys make decision at quarterback ahead of Week 12 at Commanders

Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy names his starting QB vs. Commanders.

After a 3-2 start to the season, the Dallas Cowboys lost their fifth straight game on Monday night, falling 34-10 to the Houston Texans at home. Dallas is 0-5 at home, with opponents averaging over 37 points per game.

The Cowboys’ former defensive coordinator, Dan Quinn, is now the head coach of the 7-4 Washington Commanders. On Sunday, Quinn’s Commanders host the reeling Cowboys.

With quarterback Dak Prescott out for the season, Cooper Rush has started for the Cowboys under center for the last two weeks. Even though Dallas has scored only 16 combined points in Rush’s two starts, he’ll get the call again this weekend at Washington.

While Rush will start, the Cowboys will have specific packages for quarterback Trey Lance.

Rush has appeared in four career games vs. Washington, including last season. He has one start against the Commanders, completing 15 of 27 passes for 223 yards and two touchdowns in a 25-10 Dallas win in 2022.

Lance is a former No. 3 overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft. The Cowboys traded a fourth-round draft pick to the 49ers for Lance ahead of last season. Lance has appeared in one game this season for Dallas.