The Chicago Cubs (45-65) and Cincinnati Reds (44-66) begin a 3-game series Thursday with the opener being the nationally televised Field of Dreams Game in Dyersville, Iowa, at 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX). The Reds, who are the home team, will host the final 2 games of the series back in Cincinnati Saturday and Sunday. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Cubs lead 4-3
The Cubs just concluded a 4-2 homestand in which they allowed just 15 runs in the 6 games.
The Reds just got swept in 3 at the Mets, finishing up a 9-game road trip with a 4-5 record.
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Cubs at Reds projected starters
LHP Drew Smyly vs. LHP Nick Lodolo
Smyly (4-6, 3.97 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 65 2/3 IP.
- Since coming off IL in early July, has a 4.30 ERA and 7.0 K/9 in 5 starts spanning 23 IP
- Owns a 4.50 ERA on the road this season with a 6.6 K/9 and 6 HR allowed in 38 IP
Lodolo (3-3, 4.40 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.58 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 12.1 K/9 in 43 IP.
- Has swing-and-miss stuff, as his 29.0% K% ranks 12th among all starters who have thrown 40-plus innings
- Has struggled with control lately, with 11 walks in 18 2/3 IP in his last 4 starts
Cubs at Reds odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:53 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Cubs -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Reds -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs -1.5 (+145) | Reds +1.5 (-180)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)
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Cubs at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 5, Cubs 4
Money line
Both teams have had rough seasons, but both have been playing better since the All-Star break. The Cubs have a 10-8 record over that span, while the Reds check in at 10-9.
Lodolo could have a big game if he can harness his control. He typically generates a lot of whiffs, and the Cubs strike out at the 2nd highest rate vs lefties. Lodolo’s plus stuff is worth gambling on. Back the REDS (-115).
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Run line/Against the spread
This is likely to be a close game between 2 pretty evenly matched teams. While flipping the line to Reds +1.5 (-180) is worth considering, they aren’t likely to run away with the game. They rank 29th in wRC+ vs LHP and as the “home” team, a last-inning win would probably be by a single run. PASS on the run line.
Over/Under
We’ve noted the struggles of both teams against left-handed pitching, so neither side should be expected to come through with an offensive explosion in this game. The Under has hit in 8 of the last 10 games for the Reds and in 12 of the last 16 for the Cubs. Look for those trends to continue and for this total to sneak in UNDER 9.5 (-130).
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