Cubs Reds odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line – Page 2

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Chicago Cubs (47-65) go for the haymaker against the Cincinnati Reds (44-68) Sunday at Great American Ball Park in the finale of a 3-game set. First pitch is set for 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Cubs lead 6-3

The Cubs took care of business Thursday in Iowa at the Field of Dreams game with a 4-2 victory. They flew to Cincinnati and dispatched the Reds 7-2 Saturday and look for the sweep Sunday. The Cubs have won 6 of 8 and 12 of 20 as they clearly received a jolt from not trading C Willson Contreras and OF Ian Happ at the deadline. Contreras has homered in 3 of his last 9 games, including Saturday.

The Reds have lost 5 in a row and are just 3-7 in the last 10 games. So what’s their problem? They’ve forgotten how to hit and scored just 23 runs during the stretch. They’ve scored 2 runs or fewer in 8 of those 10 games.

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Cubs at Reds projected starters

RHP Keegan Thompson vs. RHP Justin Dunn

Thompson (9-5, 3.36 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 99 IP.

Not good on the road with a 5.09 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 6.6 K/9 vs. 2.40 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 8.5 K/9 at home
Allowed 4 ER on 8 H and struck out 8 in 6 1/3 IP in a loss to Reds at Wrigley Field June 28

Dunn (0-1, 5.79 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He allowed 3 ER on 5 H, 2 BB and struck out 2 in 4 2/3 IP in a loss to the Mets Aug. 8.

Was 0-3 with a 6.92 ERA, 1.81 WHIP and 8.0 K/9 in 7 starts at Triple-A Louisville
He features a 4-seam fastball that averages 92 mph, a curveball, slider and changeup. Opponents hit his fastball at a .222 clip in his 1st start. He had an above-average spin rate on the heater last season in the 76th percentile.

Cubs at Reds odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:26 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Cubs -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Reds +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs -1.5 (+105) | Reds +1.5 (-130)
Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Cubs at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 5, Reds 2

Money line

The Cubs have a clear advantage on the mound and in the batter’s box. Chicago’s bullpen (4.01 ERA) is a full run better than Cincinnati’s last-ranking 5.05 ERA. Paying so much juice on the Cubs, especially to sweep, is a risky proposition. However, it makes sense here. Take the CUBS (-155) for a HALF UNIT.

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Run line/Against the spread

Seven of the last 8 Cubs wins have been by more than 1 run while the last 8 losses for the Reds have been by more than 1 run. I’ll take the CUBS -1.5 (+105). If you’re not comfortable with that, the CUBS FIRST 9 INNINGS (-133) would work too.

Over/Under

The Over has been the traditional betting method at Great American Ball Park, but Cincinnati hasn’t done its part of late. The Over is just 2-7-1 for them in the last 10. The Under is 4-0-1 in the Cubs’ last 5 games with the total set between 9.0-10.5. The Under is 4-0-1 in the Reds’ last 5 against a team with a losing record. Another factor coming into play here is the weather. There’s a 67% chance of rain with the wind blowing toward the left-field foul pole. Take the UNDER 9.5 (-125).

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Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Chicago Cubs (46-65) continue their series against the Cincinnati Reds (44-67) Saturday night. First pitch is 6:40 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Cubs lead 5-3

The Cubs picked up the win in the Field of Dreams Game Thursday in Iowa, beating the Reds 4-2. They have won 5 of their last 7 games.

The Reds have now lost 4 games in a row and 6 of their last 8. They are in last place in the NL Central.

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Cubs at Reds projected starters

RHP Adrian Sampson vs. RHP Graham Ashcraft

Sampson (0-3, 3.83 ERA) makes his 9th start in 11 appearances. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 through 49 1/3 IP.

The Cubs were shut out in his last 2 starts.
Has had 2 quality starts this season.

Ashcraft (5-2, 3.94 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 through 80 IP.

On June 30 against the Cubs, he allowed 7 runs on 7 hits in 2 1/3 innings, taking the loss.
Has allowed only 1 ER in his last 14 IP.

Cubs at Reds odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Cubs +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Reds -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-190) | Reds -1.5 (+155)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

Cubs at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Reds 6, Cubs 5

Money line

Ashcraft is pitching well as of late, having allowed only 2 runs (1 earned) in his last 14 innings.

The Cubs won the Field of Dreams game but lost 5 road games in a row and 6 of their last 7 in opponents’ stadiums.

The Reds have won 6 of their last 10 home games.

Take the REDS (-125).

Run line/Against the spread

Eight of the Reds’ last 10 wins have been by 2 or more runs.

The Cubs are 57-54 ATS overall this season and 29-23 ATS on the road.

The Reds are 25-31 ATS at home.

While I like the Reds to win, I’m not sure they will cover. And because it is -190 for the Cubs, PASS.

Over/Under

If there has been one trend between these two teams, it is scoring runs. While they only combined for 6 runs Thursday, 5 of their 8 games this season have had totals of 10 or more.

Take OVER 8.5 (-130).

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Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Chicago Cubs (16-24) and Cincinnati Reds (12-28) open a 4-game set Monday at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: First meeting of 2022 — Reds won 11-8 last season

The Cubs beat the Arizona Diamondbacks 5-4 Sunday, avoiding a 4-game sweep. OF/3B Patrick Wisdom and DH/1B Frank Schwindel hit back-to-back homers for the second game in a row as the Cubs snapped a 4-game slide. Interestingly, Schwindel hit the first one in Saturday’s 7-6 loss, while Wisdom batted ahead of “Frank the Tank” in the weekend finale.

The Reds avoided a 3-game sweep in Toronto with a 3-2 win at the Blue Jays Sunday. 1B Joey Votto, who grew up in suburban Toronto, broke a 2-2 tie with an 8th-inning solo homer, which turned out to be the difference. While Cincinnati owns MLB’s worst record, it just completed a 5-4 road trip, which included stops in Pittsburgh and Cleveland.

Cubs at Reds projected starters

LHP Drew Smyly vs. RHP Vladimir Gutierrez

Smyly (1-5, 3.97 ERA) is slated to make his 8th start of 2022. He has a 1.38 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 through 34 IP.

Last outing: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 3-2 home loss vs. Pirates Wednesday
Career vs. Reds: 3-0, 3.09 ERA (23 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 19 H, 4 HR, 7 BB, 26 K in 4 starts and 1 relief appearance

Gutierrez (0-5, 8.65 ERA) makes his 7th start this season. With a high ERA, it’s no surprise he has a 1.96 WHIP with a 6.6 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 26 IP.

Last outing: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 HR, 2 BB, 6 K in 14-11 home win vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 11
Career vs. Cubs: 1-2, 2.38 ERA (22 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 in 4 starts – all last season during his rookie campaign

Cubs at Reds odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:25 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Cubs -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Reds +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs -1.5 (+122) | Reds +1.5 (-150)
Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +110 | U: -135)

Cubs at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 8, Cubs 6

Money line

CHICAGO (-135) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager.

In his last 3 starts, Cincinnati’s Gutierrez was hammered for 17 ERs in 13 innings (11.77 ERA) and allowed 19 hits and walked 10. There’s no reason to believe he’ll be any different Monday.

As mentioned, his counterpart in Smyly is 3-0 in his career vs. the Reds. That includes a 2-0 showing with a 2.25 ERA (12 IP, 3 ER) against them last year while pitching for the Atlanta Braves.

He tossed 6 innings in both of those outings, yielding just 1 ER in a 3-2 victory at Cincinnati in late June, and allowing 2 ER in a 3-2 win in Atlanta in August. In the second start, the southpaw only allowed 2 hits and struck out 7.

There’s no real home/away trend here. The Cubs are 9-9 on the road this season, while the Reds are 5-9 at home, though they are 4-2 in their last 6 at GABP.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

ATS records:

Cubs: 20-20 | 11-7 away
Reds: 18-22 | 6-8 home

If riding trends, the play would the Reds +1.5 (-150). Since we’re backing the Cubs’ ML, I’m not interested in laying the -150 price.

Betting against Cincinnati run lines was money early in the season. The Reds were 2-19 ATS between April 12-May 5. They’re 12-3 ATS since.

The Cubs are on a current 5-game ATS slide, following an 8-0 ATS run.

Over/Under

OVER 9.5 (+110) is the way to go.

O/U records:

Cubs: 18-19-3 | 7-11 away
Reds 23-16-1 | 11-3 home

Gutierrez’s last outings were already highlighted – or lowlighted.

The key here is that the Reds lead the majors in Overs, both overall and at home. It’s not my strongest play, however, since they are on a 4-game Under run and are 1-6 O/U in their last 7.

Plus, the Under is 6-1 in Smyly’s starts (the O/U is 3-3 in Gutierrez’s starts).

Meanwhile, the Cubs are coming off 3 Overs in a row.

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Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Chicago Cubs (52-69) play the second game of a three-game set with the Cincinnati Reds (65-55) Tuesday at Great American Ball Park with a 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cubs vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Cincinnati clubbed Chicago 14-5 in Monday’s series opener as Reds’ NL Rookie of the Year favorite 3B Jonathan India went 3-for-6 with a home run, a double and 5 RBIs.

Season series: Reds lead 10-4.

RHP Kyle Hendricks is on the mound for the Cubs. He is 13-5 with a 4.15 ERA (138 2/3 IP, 64 ER), 1.34 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 through 24 starts.

Last outing: Loss, 17-4, with 4 IP, 9 ER, 11 H, 1 BB and 3 K Thursday against the Milwaukee Brewers.
Hendricks has earned two no-decisions against the Reds this season with a 5.23 ERA (10 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 14 H, 2 BB and 9 K.
- vs. Reds on current roster (230 PA): 5.24 FIP with a .297 batting average (BA), .371 wOBA, .415 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 21.7 K% and 87.1 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Vladimir Gutiérrez gets the nod for the Reds. He is 8-3 with a 3.95 ERA (79 2/3 IP, 35 ER), 1.33 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 through 14 starts.

Last outing: Win, 12-3, with 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 6 K Thursday at the Atlanta Braves.
Gutiérrez is 1-1 this season against Chicago with a 2.38 ERA (11 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 7 H, 5 BB and 8 K.
- vs. Cubs on current roster (20 PA): 9.76 FIP with a .313 BA, .452 wOBA, .462 xSLG, 10.0 K% and 85.6 mph EV.

Cubs at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:25 p.m. ET.

Money line: Cubs +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Reds -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Cubs +1.5 (-140) | Reds -1.5 (+111)
Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Prediction

Reds 9, Cubs 4

Money line (ML)

PASS with a “lean” on the Reds (-180) even though Cincinnati is getting “sharp” line movement and Chicago is in the midst of a 12-game losing skid.

At this price point, I’d be more interested in parlaying Cincy’s money line with another similarly priced favorite for a plus- or even-money payout.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the REDS -1.5 (+111) for a half unit only because Cincy is just 19-28 ATS as a home favorite, Chicago is 28-18 ATS as a road underdog and there’s “reverse line movement” (RLM) in the Cubs’ direction.

However, the Reds are 31-22 ATS against NL Central foes, the Cubs are 23-31 ATS in divisional games and Hendricks has been terrible in his last five starts against the Reds and in Cincy’s home ballpark.

Hendricks is 0-3 with a 9.26 ERA (23 1/3 IP, 24 ER) and 20/4 K/BB with 8 home runs allowed over his last five starts against the Reds. Also, Hendricks is 2-5 with a 6.16 ERA (61 1/3 IP, 42 ER) and 1.45 WHIP across 11 starts in Cincinnati’s home park.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-107) for a half unit because there are so many Over-friendly trends in this matchup, Cincinnati’s lineup is tied with the best WAR in August and Chicago’s pitching staff has the worst WAR this month.

That said, all of the previous information is baked into the line and nearly 70% of the action is on the Over but there’s RLM heading towards the Under, according to Pregame.com. This is why I only “LEAN” OVER 9.5 (-107) for a half unit.

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Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Chicago Cubs (42-41) meet the Cincinnati Reds (42-40) Sunday in their three-game series finale at Great American Ball Park for a 1:10 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Cincinnati has edged out Chicago by one run in each of the first two games of the series.

Season series: Reds lead 5-3.

RHP Kyle Hendricks makes his 17th start for the Cubs. Hendricks is 10-4 with a 3.98 ERA (92 2/3 IP, 41 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 this year.

Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 4 K in Chicago’s 14-4 loss at the Milwaukee Brewers Monday.
vs. Reds on the current roster: 172 at-bats with a .302/.383/.506 slash line, 44/22 K/BB, 8 HR and 24 RBIs.

LHP Wade Miley is Cincinnati’s projected starter. Miley is 6-4 with a 3.09 ERA (81 2/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.11 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 over 14 starts.

Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 3 BB and 7 K in Cincinnati’s 12-4 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies Monday.
Miley picked up a win April 30 against the Reds, 8-6, with a stat line of 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 3 K.
vs. Cubs on the current roster: 118 at-bats with a .212/.299/.364 slash line, 26/10 K/BB, 2 HR and 15 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Cubs at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:37 a.m. ET.

Money line: Cubs +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Reds -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Cubs +1.5 (-185) | Reds -1.5 (+150)
Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Reds 9, Cubs 4

Money line (ML)

GIMME the REDS (-125) for 1 unit to fade Hendricks who has struggled in recent outings against Cincinnati and because the Cubs have lost eight straight games.

For instance, Hendricks has lost three straight starts vs. the Reds (all in Cincinnati) and has an 8.28 ERA in his last five starts against the Reds with nine home runs allowed.

Furthermore, not only are Miley’s basic numbers against the Cubs better than Hendricks’ vs. the Reds but so are Miley’s pitching peripherals.

Miley has a 3.49 FIP with a .285 expected wOBA, .322 expected slugging percentage and a 2.5° launch angle vs. active Cincinnati batters.

While Hendricks has a 5.33 FIP with a .335 expected wOBA, .419 expected slugging percentage and a 15.2° launch angle against current Chicago hitters.

Lastly, according to Pregame.com, at the time of writing more than 80% of the money is on Chicago’s money line because, in my opinion, the Cubs are more popular and Hendricks is leading the majors in wins.

However, the Reds are playing much better baseball since the start of last month and it’s typically profitable in sports betting to fade lopsided betting markets.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the REDS -1.5 (+150) for a quarter unit because in Hendricks’ last three starts vs. Cincinnati the Reds have outscored the Cubs 28-13 and have won by two or more runs in two of those meetings.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET the OVER 9.5 (-115) for 1 unit as another “contrarian play” against a majority of the market that is betting the Under because of too much “recency bias”.

Sure, the first two Cubs-Reds games in this series went well Under the total, but these teams have a combined 20-10 O/U record when these starters are on the mound.

Moreover, Chicago has gone Over in Hendricks’ last six starts against divisional foes and Cincinnati has gone Over in Miley’s previous five starts as a favorite.

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Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Chicago Cubs (42-40) and Cincinnati Reds (41-40) play the second game of a three-game set Saturday at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs at Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Adbert Alzolay is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs. He is 4-7 with a 4.55 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 65 1/3 IP over 13 starts.

Alzolay has dropped three straight starts, coughing up 11 earned runs in just 10 2/3 innings during the span. However, he allowed just five hits and three walks with six strikeouts in 5 2/3 scoreless innings in a win over the Reds May 28.

RHP Tyler Mahle is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds. He is 7-3 with a 3.74 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 11.2 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 84 1/3 IP over 16 starts.

Mahle lost last time out allowing four runs, six hits and a walk with seven strikeouts over six innings in a loss against the Atlanta Braves. He allowed just one hit and one walk with eight strikeouts in five scoreless frames in a road win against the Cubs May 30.

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Cubs at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:00 a.m. ET.

Money line: Cubs +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Reds -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Cubs +1.5 (-165) | Reds -1.5 (+140)
Over/Under: 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Reds 5, Cubs 2

Money line (ML)

The REDS (-140) are a solid play on their home field against the Cubs (+115). They won the series opener 2-1 at GABP, and they shoot for their first three-game win streak since rattling off six consecutive victories from June 11-16. Mahle had two of those six wins.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The REDS -1.5 (+145) are worth a roll of the dice. While their past two wins have each been one-run games, four of their past six victories have been by two or more runs.

Over/Under (O/U)

The UNDER 9 (+100) easily connected in Friday’s series opener with three total runs, and we should get another low-scoring game with Mahle and Alzolay on the mound. The Under is 5-2 in Mahle’s past seven starts, while the Under is 4-1-2 in Alzolay’s past seven outings.

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Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Chicago Cubs (42-39) start a three-game set with the NL Central rival Cincinnati Reds (40-40) Friday at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Chicago has lost six straight games to the Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers entering Friday and is just 3-7 in the last 10 games.

Cincinnati prevented a three-game sweep by the San Diego Padres with a 5-4 come from behind victory Thursday after the Reds rallied to score two runs in the bottom of the 9th. The Reds are 5-5 over their last 10 games.

Season series: Tied 3-3.

RHP Alec Mills is on the hill for the Cubs. Mills is 3-1 with a 5.11 ERA (37 IP, 21 ER), 1.60 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 across four starts and 12 relief appearances.

Last outing: No-decision with 4 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 2 BB and 2 K in Chicago’s 3-2 loss at the Los Angeles Dodgers Saturday.
vs. Reds on the current roster: 56 at-bats with a .143/.226/.321 slash line, 17/6 K/BB, 3 HR and 5 RBIs.

RHP Sonny Gray makes his 11th start for the Reds. Gray is 1-4 with a 3.42 ERA (50 IP, 19 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 11.7 K/9 this year.

Last outing: No-decision with 3 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB and 5 K in Cincinnati’s 5-1 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers June 8.
vs. Reds on the current roster: 114 at-bats with a .123/.194/.202 slash line, 39/8 K/BB, 2 HR and 9 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Cubs at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:34 p.m. ET.

Money line: Cubs +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Reds -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Cubs +1.5 (-140) | Reds -1.5 (+115)
Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Reds 8, Cubs 3

Money line (ML)

BET the REDS (-160) for 1 unit because their lineup is very productive at home, the Cubs are just 16-26 in road games and Gray’s pitching peripherals both against current Chicago batters and for the season are far superior to Mills’.

For instance, the Reds lineup is third in hard-hit rate, fourth in wRC+ and second in wOBA at home while the Cubs lineup is bottom-10 in the majors on the road across all of those hitting metrics.

In fact, the Reds scored a combined 23 runs in their three-game set with the Cubs in Cincinnati earlier this season.

Lastly, Gray has a 2.27 FIP, .245 expected wOBA, .316 expected slugging percentage and 32.1% strikeout rate vs. active Cubs batters.

Whereas Mills has a 6.53 FIP, .393 expected wOBA, .570 expected slugging percentage and a 20.5% strikeout rate against current Reds hitters.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the REDS -1.5 (+115) for a half unit because of Cincinnati’s aforementioned edges and Chicago has lost by two or more runs in four of the past six games.

However, it’s only a “lean” because three of the six Cubs-Reds meetings this season have been decided by a single run and Cincinnati’s bullpen is unreliable with 27th-ranked WAR and 28th-ranked left-on-base percentage.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-115) for a quarter unit – if at all – because these teams have a combined 4-10 O/U record when these starters take the mound and a vast majority of the market is betting the Over.

Even though I don’t like following a crowd of people in sports betting, I do agree with the market in preferring the Over because of the Reds hitting prowess in Cincinnati and the Great American Ball Park being fifth in runs scored due to park factors.

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