Tag: Cubs Brewers odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with expert MLB picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Chicago Cubs (38-45) and the Milwaukee Brewers (46-39) play the 2nd contest of a 4-game series Tuesday at American Family Field. First pitch is set for 4:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network/ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Brewers lead 3-1

The Cubs suffered their 2nd consecutive 8-6 setback Monday, as they also lost by the same score in the series finale Sunday against the Cleveland Guardians. The Chicago pitching staff has coughed up 6 or more runs in each of the last 3 outings. The Cubs are also 1-7 in the last 8 games overall.

The Brewers have won 3 in a row after Monday’s victory, and 1st-place Milwaukee looks for its 1st 4-game win streak since April 16-19. The Brew Crew has averaged 8.0 runs per game (RPG) across the last 4 outings, and it’s no surprise the Over has cashed in each of those contests.

Chicago has dropped 9 of the last 11 games against teams with a winning record, while going 1-5 in the last 6 games following a loss.

Milwaukee has won 6 of the last 7 games inside the NL Central, while going 5-1 in the last 6 tries against a right-handed starting pitcher.

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Cubs at Brewers projected starters

RHP Kyle Hendricks vs. LHP Wade Miley

Hendricks (3-3, 2.81 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 0.96 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 4.8 K/9 in 41 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 4 K in a 3-1 home loss vs. the Philadelphia Phillies Thursday
  • 2023 road splits: 2-1, 1.77 ERA (20 1/3 IP, 4 ER) with a .114 opponent batting average (OBA) in 3 starts

Miley (5-2, 3.02 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.06 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 5.4 K/9 over 56 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 3 K in a 5-2 road win vs. the New York Mets last Wednesday
  • 2023 home splits: 3-1, 3.33 ERA (27 IP, 10 ER – 4 HR) with a .238 OBA in 5 starts

Cubs at Brewers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:12 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Cubs +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Brewers -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-190) | Brewers -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Cubs at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 3, Brewers 2

Moneyline

The CUBS (+100) are a solid play at even-money to bounce back after Monday’s series-opening loss.

It’s going to be a tough one for the visitors, as the Brewers (-120) are 4-0 in Miley’s last 4 starts.

Hendricks enjoyed a solid June, going 3-2 with a 2.51 ERA and he had 4 quality starts in the 5 outings. He has also won his only start against a Central Division foe this season.

Run line/Against the spread

The Cubs +1.5 (-190) will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return, and that’s just too expensive. If you like Chicago, just play it straight up.

While the Cubs are just 2-9 in the last 11 road games against winning teams, it is 7-2 in the last 9 inside the division despite Monday’s loss, while still going 4-1 in the last 5 road games. The trends are a bit conflicting, so PASS.

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Over/Under

UNDER 9 (-115) is the play, even though the Over has cashed in 4 in a row for the Brewers. However, the Under is 21-6-2 in the past 29 home games against a team with a losing overall record.

Despite Monday’s Over, the Under is still 12-4-1 in the past 17 road games for the Cubs, while going 4-1 in the past 5 road outings against teams with a winning record.

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Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with expert MLB picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Chicago Cubs (38-44) and the Milwaukee Brewers (45-39) kick off a 4-game series Monday at American Family Field. First pitch is set for 2:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network/ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Brewers lead 2-1

The Cubs dropped the final 2 games of a 3-game weekend interleague series vs. the Cleveland Guardians after routing them 10-1 in the series opener Friday. Chicago was outscored 14-6 in those 2 losses, including an 8-6 setback in 10 innings on Sunday. The last series the Cubs won came in its last true road series, a 3-game sweep in Pittsburgh from June 19-21.

The Brewers took 2 of 3 from the aforementioned Pirates over the weekend in the Steel City, scoring at least 6 runs in each of the outings. Milwaukee has won 11 of the past 16 games overall dating back to June 16.

The Cubs have won 7 of the past 8 games inside the NL Central and are 4-1 in their past 5 games on the road.

The Brewers are 5-1 in the past 6 divisional games while cashing in 11 of the past 16 games at home against the Cubs.

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Cubs at Brewers projected starters

LHP Drew Smyly vs. RHP Julio Teheran

Smyly (7-5, 3.96 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 86 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 3 2/3 IP, 7 ER, 9 H (2 HR), 1 BB, 2 K in an 8-5 home loss vs. the Philadelphia Phillies Wednesday
  • 2023 road splits: 4-3, 2.74 ERA (46 IP, 14 ER – 6 HR) with a .256 opponent batting average (OBA) in 8 starts

Teheran (2-3, 2.85 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 0.93 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9 over 41 IP.

  • Last start: Loss 5 2/3 IP, 7 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 2 K in a 7-2 home loss vs. the New York Mets Tuesday
  • 2023 home splits: 1-1, 1.57 ERA (23 IP, 4 ER – 1 HR) with a .171 OBA in 4 starts

Cubs at Brewers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:46 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Cubs -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Brewers -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs -1.5 (+145) | Brewers +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Cubs at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 3, Cubs 2

Moneyline

The BREWERS (-110) are worth a look in the series opener but expect a narrow margin of victory in a well-pitched game.

Unfortunately for the Cubs, no matter how well they’re going, they always seem to struggle against their neighbors from the north. Chicago has won just once in the past 5 meetings overall and 5 times in the previous 16 trips north on Interstate 94 to Cream City.

Run line/Against the spread

The BREWERS +1.5 (-175) are a little on the pricey side but not terribly out of line if you just do not trust Teheran and the home side straight up and would like a little insurance.

One reason for concern is that Milwaukee has won just 3 of the past 10 tries against a left-handed starter.

However, there should be no concerns with Teheran bouncing back after a dud last week. The righty has resurrected his career with the Brew Crew and has enjoyed the home cooking at American Family Field so far, holding teams to a .171 OBA with a 1.57 ERA over 4 starts.

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Over/Under

UNDER 8.5 (+100) at even money is the best value on the board.

Smyly has pitched much better on the road than at home and Teheran has fared well at AFF.

The Under is 12-3-1 in the past 16 road games for the Cubbies and is 9-1 in their past 10 on the road vs. RHP.

The Under is 18-8 in the past 26 games inside the division for the Brewers and has cashed at a 5-2 clip in their last 7 home games against the Cubs.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Chicago Cubs (32-48) continue their 3-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers (47-35) Tuesday at American Family Field with the 1st pitch scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee took Monday’s series opener 5-2 in extra innings with a 3-run walk-off home run in the bottom of the 10th by 1B-C Victor Caratini.

The Brewers lead the season series with the Cubs 6-5 and have a plus-11 run differential in those meetings.

Cubs at Brewers projected starters

RHP Kyle Hendricks vs. RHP Jason Alexander  

Hendricks is 4-6 with a 4.76 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 in 81 1/3 IP over 15 starts.

  • Last start: Won 15-7 Thursday at home vs. the Cincinnati Reds with 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 7 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Brewers: 0-1 with a 6.14 ERA (14 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 18 H, 3 HR, 6 BB and 10 K in 3 starts.

Alexander is 2-0 with a 3.82 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 4.4 K/9 in 30 2/3 IP over 5 starts and 2 relief appearances in his rookie season.

  • Last start: Won 6-4 Thursday at home vs. the St. Louis Cardinals with 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 5 K.
  • 2022 home splits: 2-0 with a 4.22 ERA (10 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 13 H, 1 HR, 4 BB and 6 K in 2 starts.

Cubs at Brewers odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:41 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Cubs +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Brewers -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-190) | Brewers -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

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Cubs at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 6, Brewers 5

Money line

BET the CUBS (+105) because the oddsmakers are begging us to bet the Brewers (-130) at this price point considering they are 14 games in front of the Cubs in the NL Central and 21-9 vs. Chicago since the start of last year.

But the Brewers are just 6-5 vs. the Cubs this year, Chicago’s lineup and bullpen are fairly equal to Milwaukee’s and Hendricks is the better starter. Hendricks is outperforming Alexander by K/BB rate (11.7-1.4%), hard-hit rate (42.2-38.7%) and exit velocity (88.7-87.4 mph), per FanGraphs.

Finally, early sharp action is on the Cubs and has dragged Milwaukee’s ML from a -141 opener down to the current number, according to Pregame.com.

BET 0.75 units on the CUBS (+105).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

There are a lot of solid trends suggesting the Cubs +1.5 (-190) are the way to go here and 6 of the 12 Cubs-Brewers meetings this season have been decided by at least 2 runs.

However, Chicago’s RL is just out of my price range and the Brewers -1.5 (+155) are a respectable 14-17 RL as home favorites.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 8.5 (-122) because that appears to be the sharp side since nearly three-fourths of the action is on the Under 8.5 (-102) according to Pregame.com. Also, Cubs-Brewers are 6-2 O/U in their last 8 meetings in Milwaukee and both lineups are raking over the last 2 weeks.

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Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Chicago Cubs (32-47) and Milwaukee Brewers (46-35) begin a 3-game series Monday at American Family Field with 1st pitch at 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Tied 5-5

Milwaukee finished their 6-game road trip going 4-2 with a 2-0 victory Sunday against the Pittsburgh Pirates..

The Cubs failed to extend their 4-game winning streak and were unable to get their first sweep of the season, losing 4-2 at home against the Boston Red Sox.

Cubs at Brewers projected starters

LHP Justin Steele vs. LHP Eric Lauer

Steele (3-5, 4.39 ERA) will make his 16th start this season. He has a 1.47 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 69 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: Won 8-3 Wednesday vs. the Cincinnati Reds with 5 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 6 K.
  • Has allowed 2 runs or less in 4 of his last 5 starts, but earned a no-decision in 3 of those games.
  • 75% of his walks comes against right-handed batters.

Lauer (6-3, 4.02 ERA) will make his 15th start. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 50 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision in Wednesday’s 5-3 win vs. the Tampa Bay Rays with 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 3 K.
  • Had a 6.83 ERA in June with opposing batters hitting .284.
  • His 24% strikeout percentage is the highest of his 5-year career.

Cubs at Brewers odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 12:29 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Cubs +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Brewers -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-160) | Brewers -1.5 (+130)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Cubs at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 6, Cubs 5

Money line

LEAN BREWERS (-155)

The Brewers post the 5th-best win percentage in MLB after a win and they are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.

On the flip side, the Cubs struggle after a loss, winning 40% of the time.

The Brewers are also 26-15 against the NL Central, while posting losing records against the NL East and NL West.

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Run line/Against the spread

In their 10 head-to-head matchups this season, half of them were 1-run games, but Cubs +1.5 (-160) is just too pricey. It’s best to AVOID.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER (-130)

The Cubs hit the Over in their last 4 games against a left-handed starter and the Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Milwaukee.

The Cubs also have 4 players, Wilson Contreras, Yan Gomes, Ian Happ, and Andrelton Simmons who have a 1.00 OPS or greater against Lauer. And the Cubs are 4th in MLB with a .326 OPS.

While the Brewers’ Christian Yelich ranks 83rd in 2022 with a .742 OPS, this year against Steele he is has a whopping 1.143 OPS. He is also batting .290 against the Cubs this season.

I expect the bats to show up this 4th of July.

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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Chicago Cubs (8-12) meet the red-hot Milwaukee Brewers (14-7) for the second of their 4-game series at American Family Field with the first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee crushed Chicago 11-1 Friday in the series opener, hitting 6 HR and Brewers starting pitcher Adrian Houser throwing 6-scoreless innings with 2 H, 3 BB and 6 K.

Season series: Tied 2-2 but the Brew Crew has outscored the Cubs 20-19.

Cubs at Brewers projected starters

LHP Justin Steele vs. LHP Eric Lauer

Steele (1-2, 5.40 ERA) lost to the Pittsburgh Pirates 4-3 Sunday, throwing 3 IP with 3 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 2 K. He beat Milwaukee 9-0 April 9, and Steele went 5-scoreless IP with 4 H, 1 BB and 5 K.

  • 2021 vs. the Brewers: 0-1 with a 3.97 ERA (11 1/3 IP, 5 ER). 9 H, 6 BB and 9 K across 2 starts and 2 relief appearances.
  • vs. Brewers on the current roster: 4.10 FIP with a .213 expected batting average (xBA), .266 expected wOBA (xwOBA), .298 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 19.5 K% and 87.6 mph exit velocity (EV) in 41 plate appearances (PA).

Lauer (1-0, 2.20 ERA) earned a no-decision in Milwaukee’s 1-0 over the Philadelphia Phillies Sunday with 6 IP, 5 H, 1 BB and 13 K.

  • 2021 vs. the Cubs: No-decision in Milwaukee’s 6-4 loss in September 2021 with 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 6 K.
  • vs. Cubs on the current roster: 1.03 FIP with a .230 xBA, .263 xwOBA, .345 xSLG, 32.0 K% and 85.3 mph EV in 25 PA.

Cubs at Brewers odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:45 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Cubs +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Brewers -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-155) | Brewers -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Cubs at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 4, Cubs 2

Money line

LEAN to the BREWERS (-170) because they have a sizeable edge in the starting pitching matchup.

For instance, Lauer’s pitching peripherals (2.61 FIP) line up with his basic numbers (2.20 ERA, 1.04 WHIP), and he’s power-ranked as the No. 22 starting pitcher, per Fangraphs, while Steele is 139th in FanGraphs’ starter power rankings and grades out as below-average in many advanced metrics.

But, the Chicago bullpen’s pitching peripherals are identical to Milwaukee’s, and the Cubs (+135) have been more productive at the plate to start the year.

LEAN BREWERS (-170).

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Run line/Against the spread

Slight LEAN to the BREWERS -1.5 (+125) because they’ve beaten the Cubs +1.5 (-155) by at least 2 runs in eight of their last nine meetings.

Also, the Brewers are 52-38 RL versus NL East foes since the beginning of last season while the Cubs are 38-48 RL against their division over that span.

Over/Under

BET the UNDER 7.5 (-102) because Milwaukee’s pitching is phenomenal while its hitting remains subpar and there’s reverse line movement (RLM) headed south of the total.

According to Pregame.com, most of the cash and bets placed are on the Over but the total has been lowered from an 8-run opener.

RLM should be a red flag for any sports bettor because you have to ask yourself “why are the sportsbooks making the more popular side cheaper? Hmm.”

The UNDER 7.5 (-107) is my favorite wager in the Cubs-Brewers meeting.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Chicago Cubs (42-37) and Milwaukee Brewers (46-33) play the second game of a three-game set Tuesday with an 8:10 p.m. ET first pitch at American Family Field. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Zach Davies is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs. He is 5-4 with a 4.31 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 5.6 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9 in 79 1/3 IP over 16 starts.

Davies allowed five walks with four strikeouts across six scoreless and hitless innings Thursday at Dodger Stadium for the win. He combined with RHP Ryan Tepera, LHP Andrew Chafin and RHP Craig Kimbrel for the seventh no-hitter this season.

RHP Brandon Woodruff is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers. He is 6-3 with a 1.89 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in 95 IP over 15 starts.

Woodruff allowed just one run, three hits and two walks with nine strikeouts across seven innings in a win at the Arizona Diamondbacks Wednesday. He has served up six homers in just 24 innings in four outings in June.

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Cubs at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:53 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cubs +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Brewers -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cubs +1.5 (-120) | Brewers -1.5 (+100)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

Prediction

Brewers 6, Cubs 3

Money line (ML)

The Brewers (-200) will cost you two times your potential return, and that’s just not an attractive pick or value play. Instead, look to the run line instead.

AVOID.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The BREWERS -1.5 (+100) are a much better play on the run line at home, even though the Cubs pitching staff combined for the no-no last time Davies started on the bump.

Milwaukee treated Chicago rudely in the series opener, rolling to a 14-4 rout Monday night. The Brewers will win Tuesday, too.

Over/Under (O/U)

The OVER 7.5 (+100) is the lean here, although there is some risk as the Cubs bats have been ice cold lately. They are averaging just 2.4 runs per game across the past 15 outings, so the Brewers will have to do the heavy lifting.

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Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Chicago Cubs (42-36) kick off a three-game set with the NL Central rival Milwaukee Brewers (45-33) Monday at American Family Field. Game 1’s first pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Brewers lead 6-3.

RHP Kyle Hendricks makes his 16th start for the Cubs. Hendricks is 10-4 with a 3.84 ERA (86 2/3 IP, 37 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Win, 7-1, with 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 5 K Tuesday vs. the Cleveland Indians.
  • Hendricks is 1-0 in two starts against Milwaukee this season with a 1.50 ERA (12 IP, 2 ER), 1.00 WHIP and 6.0 K/BB rate.
    • vs. Brewers on the current roster: 206 at-bats with a .223/.265/.301 slash line, 49/10 K/BB, 3 HR and 10 RBIs.

RHP Freddy Peralta takes the hill for the Brewers. Peralta is 7-2 with a 2.11 ERA (81 IP, 19 ER), 0.86 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 12.7 K/9 across 15 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: Win, 5-0, with 6 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 4 BB and 10 K Tuesday at the Arizona Diamondbacks.
  • Peralta is 2-0 in three starts vs. Chicago this season with a 1.80 ERA (15 IP, 3 ER), 1.00 WHIP and 3.6 K/BB rate.
    • vs. Cubs on the current roster: 87 at-bats with a .195/.293/.299 slash line, 37/11 K/BB, 1 HR and 6 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Cubs at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:22 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cubs +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Brewers -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cubs +1.5 (-165) | Brewers -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under: 7 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Brewers 4, Cubs 2

Money line (ML)

Both starters have good numbers against their opponents, but Peralta’s pitching peripherals vs. active Cubs hitters are far more impressive than Hendricks’ against Milwaukee.

Peralta has a 2.45 FIP against current Chicago batters, while Hendricks has a 2.77 FIP vs. active Brewers hitters.

However, Peralta has a .205 expected wOBA, .123 expected batting average, .183 expected slugging percentage and 34.5% strikeout rate.

Hendricks has a .297 expected wOBA, .248 expected batting average, .371 expected slugging percentage and 23.7% strikeout rate.

Finally, Chicago’s lineup has been atrocious recently, ranking dead-last in WAR, wRC+ and wOBA over the past two weeks.

Since Peralta has some of the nastiest stuff in the league—92nd percentile of whiff rate, 99th percentile of expected batting average and 95th percentile of expected wOBA—the play is to BET the BREWERS (-155) for a 1 unit.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because Milwaukee’s lineup has been terrible at home this season (more on that below) and the Brewers are just 14-18 ATS as a home favorite while the Cubs are 15-12 ATS as a road underdog in 2021.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 7 (-105) for a half unit because Peralta has been one of the best pitchers in the NL so far this season and Hendricks has righted the ship after struggling to start the year.

Hendricks has eight straight quality starts and hasn’t allowed an earned run in his last two outings (12 innings pitched). Also, the Under is 6-2-1 in the nine Cubs-Brewers meeting this season.

Furthermore, Chicago’s lineup is one of the least productive on the road. The Cubs rank 23rd in both wRC+ and wOBA on the road with the 22nd-ranked hard-hit rate.

Conversely, the Brewers are in the bottom 6 lineup of the majors at home in advanced hitting metrics such as wRC+, wOBA and BB/K rate.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Chicago Cubs (5-6) and Milwaukee Brewers (6-5) put a lid on their NL Central series at American Family Field Wednesday at 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Jake Arrieta is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs. In 11 starts over the last two seasons (2020-21), Arrieta is 6-4 with a 4.47 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, and 3.2 BB/9 in 56 1/3 IP. The veteran right-hander has a history of fast starts: he owns a .650 OPS-against in 42 career March/April starts. He also has a fine history in Milwaukee’s home park (.578 OPSA in seven starts).

RHP Corbin Burnes draws the home start for the Brewers. Over 14 games the last two seasons, Burnes is 4-2 with a 1.87 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 13.5 K/9, and 3.0 BB/9 in 72 IP. He has only allowed 1 ER on two hits through 12 1/3 IP in two turns this season. Over those two starts, Burnes fanned 20 batters without issuing a walk.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Cubs at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:30 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cubs +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Brewers -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cubs +1.5 (-135) | Brewers -1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Brewers 5, Cubs 3

Money line (ML)

The Chicago offense typically is not at its best against right-handed pitchers and thus far in 2021, that certainly holds true for the Cubs. They are 2-6 against right-handed starters.

The Cubs won Tuesday’s contest, 3-2, but are still too far off their game offensively with just 2.90 runs per game (30th in MLB) to make them an attractive side. Arrieta does not have a good line against current Brewers hitters (high-contact .801 OPS allowed), and his surface stats through two starts are generous compared to the dangerous contact he has yielded. He’s a fly-ball pitcher living dangerously. And in this get-away matinee contest, he’s backed by the more taxed bullpen.

Milwaukee is the lean. The price on the ML is too rich, though.

PASS.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

It’s no slam dunk against a Cubs team plating a bunch of low-scoring games thus far, but the run-line price on Milwaukee is workable in what figures as an Over lean on the total. BACK THE BREWERS -1.5 (+110).

Over/Under (O/U)

Peg both offenses as being snake bitten by low batting averages on balls in play. Add in the fade lean on Arrieta and TAKE THE OVER 7.5 (-115).

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Chicago Cubs (4-5) and Milwaukee Brewers (5-4) open a three-game series at American Family Field Monday at 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Adbert Alzolay is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs. In seven appearances last season and this April, Alzolay is 1-2 with a 3.76 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 11.3 K/9 and 5.1 BB/9 over 26 1/3 IP. He faced these Brewers Tuesday and allowed 4 runs on 4 hits with 4 strikeouts and 2 walks over 5 innings in a loss.

RHP Freddy Peralta draws the home start for the Brewers. Over two starts and 15 relief appearances the last two seasons, Peralta is 4-1 with a 3.22 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 15.1 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9 over 36 1/3 IP. Tuesday, he pitched 5 scoreless frames against Chicago. Current Cubs batters own a strikeout-laden .499 OPS against Peralta.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Cubs at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:10 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cubs +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Brewers -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cubs +1.5 (-175) | Brewers -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Brewers 5, Cubs 4

Money line (ML)

The Milwaukee offense typically is not at its best against right-handed pitchers. Thus far in 2021, that certainly holds true for Chicago, as the Cubs are 1-5 against right-handed starters.

The earlier matchup swings favor to the Brewers, and the Cubs just come in too far off their game offensively with just 2.89 runs per game to make them an attractive side.

TAKE MILWAUKEE (-130).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Cubs have the better bullpen, and that chips away at taking the home favorite to win by multiple runs. PASS.

Over/Under (O/U)

Mostly neutral signals here. Tag the OVER 8.5 (-115) with just the slightest of leans.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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