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Croatia (0 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) battles Italy (1-0-1) in the 3rd matchday of Euro 2024 from Red Bull Arena Leipzig Monday. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET (FOX). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Croatia vs. Italy odds, and make our best Euro 2024 bets, picks and predictions.
Italy, the nation that hoisted the Euro 2020 trophy, beat Albania 2-1 to open up its tournament play and then lost 1-0 to Spain Thursday. In the loss, Italy had 8 fewer shots on goal and 16 fewer shots. Italy is led by M Jorginho, who has been a staple of the Chelsea midfield for years. Italy went 3-1-0 through its four 2024 friendlies, drawing 0-0 to Turkey in the only game it didn’t win.
Croatia was throttled by Spain to kick off the tournament, losing 3-0. It did hold Spain scoreless in the second half though. Croatia then drew Albania 2-2 Wednesday. It ended with 22 shots and 10 on frame, 7 and 3 more than its opponent, respectively. Croatia’s main weapon is 38-year-old M Luka Modric, who just finished another season at Real Madrid. Croatia won all 4 of its matches leading up to the event.
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Croatia vs. Italy odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 4:30 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Croatia +210 (bet $100 to win $210) | Italy +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Draw +210 (bet $100 to win $210)
- Over/Under: 2.5 (O: -102 | U: -120)
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Croatia vs. Italy picks and predictions
Prediction
Italy 2, Croatia 2
Moneyline (ML)
BET DRAW (+210).
Italy and Croatia both play a similar style with several technically sound players. Italy has drawn 2 of its last 6 games and has had 5 of those 6 end within 1 goal. Those 6 included matches against Bosnia and Spain with both matches ending 1-0 despite drastically different levels in Italy’s opponents. Italy plays to level of its competition.
While Croatia was dominated by Spain, it did perform better against Albania despite ending with just 1 point. Also, of note, it did end with 5 more shots than Spain, just not converting despite having the same shots on frame. Although it has just 1 point through 2 games, Croatia is a competent side that should hang with Italy well.
BACK DRAW (+210).
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Over/Under (O/U)
BET OVER 2.5 (-102).
Croatia needs to play like it needs a win, because, to advance, it does. A draw, more than likely, won’t cut it, and that may mean it plays a more aggressive style Monday. Croatia has tallied 11 goals in its last 5 matches and has gone Over this total in both Euro games.
Italy has scored in 4 of its last 6 games and has scored at least 2 goals in 2 of its last 5. Croatia’s defense has been more giving than Spain’s which should help Italy’s attack find the holes and get more opportunities.
Expect goals and BACK OVER 2.5 (-102).
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