The 5-seed Creighton Blue Jays (20-8) face the 12-seed UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (22-4) at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis Saturday for a 3:30 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we analyze the Creighton-UC Santa Barbara odds and lines, with March Madness NCAA Tournament picks and predictions.
Creighton was dusted in the Big East final by Georgetown, falling 73-48 as 8.5-point favorites. While there are a lot of things to like about the Blue Jays, they are just 3-3 SU/ATS across the past six outings, and each of those three losses were by at least eight points, with two of them by a dozen or more. And bettors in a close game will be pulling out their hair with Creighton, as they ranked just 321st in the nation from the free-throw line at 65.1 percent.
UCSB routed rival UC Irvine in the Big West final by a 79-63 count, winning for the fifth straight time while covering in back-to-back games. They haven’t covered three in a row since a 5-0 ATS run from Jan. 15-29. The Gauchos are a lockdown defense, ranking 15th in the nation with just 62.1 PPG allowed. They’re also an impressive 13-3 ATS in the past 16 games against winning teams, too.
Creighton vs. UC Santa Barbara: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:25 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Creighton -300 (bet $300 to win $100) | UC Santa Barbara +280 (bet $100 to win $280)
- Against the spread/ATS: Creighton -7.5 (-110) | UC Santa Barbara +7.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 137.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Creighton vs. UC Santa Barbara: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Creighton 69 UC Santa Barbara 66
Money line (ML)
Backing Creighton (-300) is risky business, especially risking three times your potential return. They just haven’t been playing good basketball lately, and they have really struggled offensively in recent games. AVOID.
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Against the spread (ATS)
UC SANTA BARBARA +7.5 (-110) should be able to use timely offense and their tremendous defense to push for an upset in this 12-5 game. The Gauchos have been a very good team this season, especially protecting their own rim. However, Creighton -7.5 (-110) will be the biggest and most talented team UCSB has faced all season, and in the end the Blue Jays will scratch out the narrow win.
Over/Under (O/U)
UNDER 137.5 (-105) is worth playing as Creighton has really struggled putting points on the board lately. In fact, they have averaged a mere 53.5 PPG in the past two outings, and they’re not going to be able to roll up big points against a tremendous and poised UCSB defense. The Under is 4-1 in the past five as an underdog for the Gauchos, while the Under is 5-2-1 in the past eight as a favorite for the Blue Jays.
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