In a light heavyweight in the main event, Paulo Costa meets Marvin Vettori Saturday at UFC Fight Night 196 – also known as UFC Vegas 41 and UFC on ESPN+ 54 – at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. Below, we analyze the UFC Fight Night 196 Costa vs. Vettori odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The card can be viewed on ESPN+ with the prelims at 1 p.m. ET and the main card at 4 p.m. ET.
Costa lost by second-round KO/TKO at UFC 253 against Israel Adesanya in a battle for the championship belt Sept. 26, 2020. Since that setback, Costa has dropped out of two fights, including one due to injury, and another reportedly over a contract dispute.
In addition, Costa requested a catchweight limit of 195 pounds after not being able to make weight. As such, Costa agreed to give up 20 percent of his purse to Vettori as penalty.
Vettori also lost to Adesanya last time out, falling by unanimous-decision at UFC 263 June 12. In fact, each of his past three fights have ended up going the distance, all UDs, with nine of the previous 10 fights also needing the assistance of the judges. Only one of Costa’s six fights at the UFC level have ended up going the distance.
UFC Fight Night 196 Costa vs. Vettori: Odds and lines
Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:55 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Costa +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Vettori -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -116 | Under -117)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +105 | No -145)
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UFC Fight Night 196 Costa vs. Vettori: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Records: Costa (13-1-0) | Vettori (17-5-1)
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
VETTORI (-200) is a little expensive for my liking as I generally try to bet money line favorites only at -180 or lower. But sometimes you have to make exceptions.
I like Vettori as I think he is a bit miffed that Costa (+150) was unable to make weight. He’ll make him pay, and he appears a little more serious in his pursuit at another crack at Adesanya for the title. Topping Costa would move him back up the rungs of the ladder.
Over/Under (O/U)
YES (-145): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a strong play in this one. When Vettori wins, it’s usually with a stamp of approval from the judges. Nine of his past 10 fights at the UFC level have ended up going the distance, with seven wins and one draw during that span, as well as a lone submission victory over Karl Roberson. OVER 3.5 ROUNDS (-116) is also a strong play.
Play VETTORI ON POINTS (+170) for Method of Victory, giving you a chance to nearly double your initial stake.
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