Tag: Consensus Big Board

How did Packers do in draft value relative to 2024 consensus board?

How did the Packers in terms of finding “value” from the consensus big board in the 2024 NFL draft?

The Green Bay Packers selected 11 players in the 2024 NFL draft. How do Brian Gutekunst and the Packers so in terms of value this year? It’s a tough question to answer. Maybe impossible.

Value is an important part of the draft process. An understanding of the board is vital to judging how teams went about maximizing value during the draft.

However, establishing true “value” is incredibly difficult. Thirty-two teams each have a different draft board, and there is no consensus big board for all teams. Teams scout differently and have different schemes, coaching staffs and needs.

The best we can do is base value on the consensus of the information available. The “wisdom of the crowd” can help.

Arif Hasan of Wide Left Football creates the go-to consensus board, which ranks the top 300 players in the draft class based on 101 different big boards from draft analysts. As Hasan says, “the consensus of these experts does a better predictive job than individual experts.”

Here are the Packers’ picks in the 2024 draft, their consensus rank, their pick number and the difference between the two. This is how we’ll establish value.

Player Consensus rank Pick number Difference
Jordan Morgan 35 25 -10
Edgerrin Cooper 37 45 +8
Javon Bullard 63 58 -5
Marshawn Lloyd 94 88 +6
Ty’Ron Hopper 153 91 -62
Evan Williams 197 111 -86
Jacob Monk 272 163 -109
Kitan Oladapo 144 169 +25
Travis Glover 267 202 -65
Michael Pratt 127 245 +118
Kalen King 156 255 +99
Totals -81

The Packers stuck to the consensus board during their first four picks (-1 in total value) and then went down a much different path to end Day 2 and throughout Day 3. The variance from the consensus board was wild.

Ty’Ron Hopper, Evan Williams, Jacob Monk and Travis Glover were all significant reaches by two rounds or more on the consensus board. The Packers even traded up for Williams and Monk.

But there was also great value to end Day 3. Kitan Oladapo, Michael Pratt and Kalen King all rank among the Packers’ best value picks in terms of the consensus board since 2022.

The Packers were surprised that both Pratt and King were still available in the seventh round, and both were big “steals” by consensus rank. It’s worth noting that recent “steals” from the consensus board include Rasheed Walker, Kingsley Enagbare, Karl Brooks, Carrington Valentine and Anthony Johnson Jr., so this does appear to have some predictive value for the Packers, especially on Day 3.

Remember this quote from Packers director of football ops Milt Hendrickson, who learned it from longtime Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome: “A pick is just a pick until it becomes a player. From that standpoint, if you love the player, you find the way to get him.”

The Packers went into the 2024 draft with five top 100 picks but ended up getting only four players in the top 100 of the consensus big board.

However, the class stacks up well when sorted by consensus rank:

Jordan Morgan: 35
Edgerrin Cooper: 37
Javon Bullard: 63
MarShawn Lloyd: 94
Michael Pratt: 127
Kitan Oladapo: 144
Ty’Ron Hopper: 153
Kalen King: 156
Evan Williams: 197
Travis Glover: 267
Jacob Monk: 272

Recent years

How did Packers do in draft value relative to 2023 consensus board?

How did Packers do in draft value relative to 2022 consensus board?

How did Packers do in draft value relative to 2023 consensus board?

Using the wisdom of the crowd, we assess how the Packers did in the 2023 draft relative to the consensus big board.

How did the Green Bay Packers do in terms of value during the 2023 NFL draft? This is a tough question to answer. Maybe impossible.

Value is an important part of the draft process. An understanding of the board is vital to judging how teams went about maximizing value during the draft.

However, establishing true “value” is incredibly difficult. Thirty-two teams have thirty-two different draft boards, and there is no consensus big board for all teams. Teams scout differently and have different schemes, coaching staffs and needs.

The best we can do is base value on the consensus of the information available.

Arif Hasan of PFN creates the go-to consensus board, which ranks the top 300 players in the draft class based on more than 70 different big boards from draft analysts. As Hasan says, “the consensus of these experts does a better predictive job than individual experts.” Wisdom of the crowd. The collective is better than the opinion of one.

Here are the Packers’ picks in the 2023 draft, their consensus rank, their pick number and the difference between the two. This is how we’ll establish value. For players not on the big board, difference was determined based on 259 total picks made.

Player Consensus rank Pick number Difference
Lukas Van Ness 17 13 -4
Luke Musgrave 47 42 -5
Jayden Reed 86 50 -36
Tucker Kraft 61 78 +17
Colby Wooden 123 116 -7
Sean Clifford N/A 149 -110
Dontayvion Wicks 171 159 -12
Karl Brooks 113 179 +66
Anders Carlson N/A 207 -52
Carrington Valentine 205 232 +27
Lew Nichols III N/A 235 -24
Anthony Johnson Jr. 218 242 +24
Grant DuBose 236 256 +20
Total -96

This exercise is complicated by the fact that the Packers took three players (Clifford, Carlson and Nichols) who weren’t on the top 300 big board. All three will have to be considered big “reaches” relative to the big board, but we don’t know how big generally. In terms of the consensus, Clifford, Carlson and Nichols were all expected to be undrafted free agents. The three picks lost the Packers 186 value points.

The good news: the Packers other 10 picks gained 90 points of value overall.

The team’s first five picks all stayed fairly close to the big board when assessing the group overall (-35). Then things got squirrely. Clifford was a reach (Packers explain here), and taking a kicker usually means straying far from the big board. Nichols wasn’t on the big board but can hardly be considered a reach.

Although Reed was a moderate reach at No. 50, the Packers did trade back twice before selecting him, gaining picks at No. 159 (Wicks) and No. 179 (Brooks). Together, the three picks were actually good for 18 total value points relative to consensus.

Biggest reach: Clifford
Biggest steal: Brooks

Ultimately, the Packers took players in expected ranges until straying for a quarterback and kicker on Day 3. And they got great value on Brooks in the sixth and decent value with at least three picks in the seventh round.

Again, this isn’t a perfect exercise. In most cases, a team just doesn’t want to take a player considerably higher than the consensus, and the Packers did that a few times in this draft, but mostly for a backup quarterback and a specialist.

Overall, the process looked good relative to consensus. In fact, you could swap a few picks around (say, Reed for Kraft, Clifford for Brooks, or Carlson for Johnson) and the value would line up very well with the big board. The Packers didn’t want to lose out on a quarterback and kicker they liked, so they went earlier than expected.

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2023 NFL draft: Consensus big board top 20 cornerback rankings

Knowing that, here are the top 20 corners in this class, per the consensus big board.

How good was the Seahawks’ draft class last year? They somehow managed to make lightning strike twice in almost the exact same spot.

11 years after landing future superstar cornerback Richard Sherman at No. 154 overall, they found themselves another in Tariq Woolen last year with the No. 153 pick. This year they’ll have a chance to get another special corner, as the 2023 NFL draft features a relatively strong crop of them. In fact, most draft analysts consider it the deepest position in the entire class.

Seattle has already met with a couple of cornerback prospects at the combine, so we know they’re at least looking. Knowing that, here are the top 20 corners in this class, per the consensus big board.

2023 NFL draft: Consensus big board top 25 interior defensive lineman rankings

Here are the top 25 interior defensive linemen in the 2023 NFL draft class, according to the consensus big board.

The Seahawks are expected to throw a lot of resources at their defensive line this offseason. Finding another quality edge rusher to pair with Uchenna Nwosu and Darrell Taylor will be part of that, as will revamping the interior of the unit. Let’s take a look at some of their options in the draft.

Here are the top 25 interior defensive linemen in the 2023 NFL draft class, according to the consensus big board.

2023 NFL draft: Consensus big board top 30 EDGE prospect rankings

Here are the top 30 edge prospects in this class, according to the consensus big board.

The Seahawks struck gold when they signed Uchenna Nwosu last year in free agency. Nwosu became the team’s most consistent defensive player during the 2022 season, especially for an often overmatched defensive front seven. This offseason Pete Carroll and John Schneider will have to find him some help, either with another successful free agent investment or finding one in the 2023 NFL draft. The latter is more likely to be the case, since edge is the deepest and strongest overall position in this class outside of cornerback.

Here are the top 30 edge prospects in this class, according to the consensus big board.

2023 NFL draft: Consensus big board top 25 interior offensive lineman rankings

Here are the top 25 interior offensive linemen in this class, according to the consensus big board.

The Seattle Seahawks’ offensive line will likely be replacing at least two starters this offseason. First of all, 30 year old center Austin Blythe announced his retirement earlier this week. Also, the size of Phil Haynes’ new contract likely means veteran right guard Gabe Jackson will be a salary cap casualty. Even with Haynes taking over there, Seattle will need more depth behind him as well as a full-time replacement for Blythe.

So, let’s take a look at some of the top interior offensive line prospects in the 2023 NFL draft. Here are the top 25 interior linemen in this class, according to the consensus big board.