Tag: Compensatory Picks

Updated projections for 2025 NFL Draft compensatory picks

The 2025 NFL Draft isn’t for over 350 days but that doesn’t mean we can’t look ahead with some projections when it comes to draft picks.

The 2025 NFL Draft isn’t for over 350 days, but that doesn’t mean we can’t look ahead with some projections when it comes to draft picks. The way the NFL gives compensatory picks can be tough to figure out but the folks over at Over the Cap have a formula that does a good job of predicting them.

It is important to remember, the picks we are about to discuss and the projections are just that, projections.

The NFL gives compensatory draft picks for various reasons, namely the loss of key players in free agency. In March, the team lost both Kirk Cousins and Danielle Hunter to free agency. Cousins went to Atlanta, and Hunter went to Houston.

The team is projected to receive a third-round pick for the loss of Cousins. They were also expected to receive a third-round pick for the loss of Hunter but the team signing Shaq Griffin loses that pick for them as Over the Cap explains.

“. . .3rd rounders for both Cousins and Hunter leaving were on the board…until they signed Shaquill Griffin to a one year, $4.55 million contract, leaving the Vikings with a net loss of only 1 CFA, giving the formula no choice but to cancel out Hunter’s contract with Griffin’s.”

Much goes into the formula and the projections, much more than most of us realize. Their projections are very well done and are a fun read for Viking and NFL fans alike. I strongly suggest you read their piece to further understand their reasoning for each pick being given out.

Commanders not projected to receive any compensatory picks in 2025 for free-agent losses this offseason

No surprise, the Commanders aren’t expected to receive any compensatory picks for 2025 after a busy offseason.

The Washington Commanders signed over 20 outside free agents this offseason and watched some former starters leave via free agency.

However, Washington signed much more than it lost, meaning the Commanders would not receive any compensatory selections in the 2025 NFL draft, per Over the Cap.

That’s not a surprise and something general manager Adam Peters knew before free agency. The Commanders had so many holes it would need to be aggressive in free agency just to field a competitive roster in 2024.

While Washington didn’t land any compensatory picks for 2025, three of its signings helped other teams land them. The Commanders’ signings of center Tyler Biadasz and defensive end Dorance Armstrong Jr. give the Dallas Cowboys a pair of fifth-round selections.

Also, Washington’s signing of running back Austin Ekeler means the Los Angeles Chargers will receive a sixth-round pick.

The Commanders were busy in free agency but also added nine newcomers via the NFL draft and 11 more undrafted free agents. Washington will look like a completely different team in 2024, which should be encouraging news to the fans.

Rams not projected to receive any compensatory picks in 2025 for free-agent losses this offseason

The Rams are not projected to receive any compensatory picks in next year’s draft for their free-agent departures this offseason

The Los Angeles Rams changed their strategy in free agency this offseason. Rather than primarily targeting players who were cut by other teams and letting some of their top free agents walk, they did they opposite. They re-signed their top guy in Kevin Dotson and also brought in some high-level free agents such as Jonah Jackson, Colby Parkinson and Kamren Curl.

The result? A lack of compensatory picks in the 2025 NFL draft. Because the Rams signed a few qualified free agents and didn’t suffer any major losses, they’re not going to have any additional picks for their departures.

According to Over The Cap, the Rams are not projected to receive any regular compensatory picks in the 2025 NFL draft. It’s unofficial, of course, because compensatory picks won’t be awarded until next spring, but the Rams aren’t in line to receive any.

The only extra pick they’ll receive is a special compensatory pick for Raheem Morris being hired as the Falcons’ head coach this offseason. That will be a third-round comp pick at the end of the round, just as they received this year.

Here’s a breakdown of the compensatory pick cancellation chart from Over The Cap, showing who the Rams lost and who they added to offseason their departures.

The Rams are known for being a team that accumulates compensatory picks. Just for free-agent losses, they received four in the 2024 draft, four in 2023, four in 2022 and three in 2021.

Next year will feel much different with the absence of compensatory picks for the Rams, especially after they also traded away their 2025 second-rounder to move up for Braden Fiske.

Lions not expected to earn any compensatory picks in the 2025 NFL draft

The Detroit Lions are not projected to earn any compensatory picks in the 2025 NFL draft after free agency signings

Despite some Lions players from last season signing lucrative free agent deals elsewhere this offseason, Detroit is not projected to earn any compensatory selections in the 2025 NFL Draft.

The latest projections for 2025 comp picks from both NFL.com and Over The Cap do not include the Lions among those teams receiving any. The Lions are one of 17 teams whose spending on incoming free agents canceled out the losses from the roster in the qualifying portion of free agency.

The formula for awarding compensatory picks isn’t completely known, but it’s based on a formula that balances the average per year (APY) value of contracts signed by qualified free agents departing the team against the APY value of free agents the team signed.

For Detroit, three departing free agents qualified:

Detroit added in four qualifying free agents:

The Lions did lose $4.4 million in net free agent spending ($32.1 lost, $28.1 spent), but that’s not enough to earn one of the 32 compensatory picks. As Lance Zierlien of NFL.com notes,

“To qualify for compensatory picks, teams must end up with more qualifying free agents lost than gained in a particular year.”

Detroit signed four and only lost three in the qualifying period, which ended on April 29th when the 2204 NFL draft process concluded. Any further free agency moves don’t factor into the comp pick formula. Detroit last earned compensatory picks in the 2022 NFL draft. Those picks turned into Kerby Joseph, James Mitchell and James Houston.

 

 

Cowboys projected to receive 4 compensatory picks in 2025 draft

From @ToddBrock24f7: Dallas could add 4 to their 2025 draft haul thanks to the free agency losses of three starters and an important rotational player.

The Cowboys love to collect draft picks, especially compensatory picks awarded for veteran players who are allowed to leave in free agency and not replaced.

In this year’s draft, the team picked up two extra selections, which they used on Wake Forest cornerback Caelen Carson in the fifth round and Southeast Missouri State wide receiver Ryan Flournoy in the sixth, taking their total draft haul from six players to eight.

Next year, Dallas is projected to gain four compensatory picks, the maximum allowed by league rule. That estimate comes from NFL.com draft analyst Lance Zierlein; the exact formula used by the league is kept in-house and won’t be determined until after the 2024 season has been completed.

Zierlein predicts the Cowboys will receive three extra fifth-round picks and an additional sixth-round selection.

Over The Cap projects Tyron Smith, Tyler Biadasz, and Dorance Armstrong to be worth fifth-rounders and Tony Pollard to net the team an extra sixth. Dante Fowler would likely have earned a seventh-rounder but surpasses the maximum four comp picks allowed per club per draft class.

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The Cowboys have long relied on compensatory picks to bolster their draft hauls. Dating back to 2021, the Cowboys have added at least two compensatory picks each year. Dak Prescott, Donovan Wilson, Nahshon Wright, Josh Ball, Israel Mukuamu, Damone Clark, Asim Richards, and Deuce Vaughn from the current roster were added via compensatory picks. Former Cowboys Dalton Schultz, Cedrick Wilson, and the aforementioned Biadasz were also compensatory picks.

The 2025 NFL draft is set to take place April 24-26 at Lambeau Field in Green Bay.

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Dolphins currently projected to get 3 compensatory picks in 2025

While the Dolphins lost Christian Wilkins, Robert Hunt, and others in free agency, that should mean more draft capital in 2025.

It’s been a few years since the Miami Dolphins received a compensatory draft pick. The last time was in 2020 when the team received fourth- and seventh-round selections for losing Ja’Wuan James and Brandon Bolden.

Five years later, the Dolphins are in line to finally get some compensatory picks again.

According to Over The Cap’s projections, the sizable contracts that Christian Wilkins and Robert Hunt signed with the Las Vegas Raiders and Carolina Panthers, respectively, are both likely to earn the Dolphins third-round picks in 2025.

While OTC also projects Miami will receive a seventh-round selection, that one is much less certain. For now, the additions of Jordyn Brooks, Aaron Brewer, and Kendall Fuller cancel out the losses of Andrew Van Ginkel, Raekwon Davis, and Brandon Jones. That leaves the contract signed by DeShon Elliott as just rich enough to earn a seventh-rounder.

But if the Dolphins make another move or just a few more free agents get deals elsewhere, that pick could disappear.

Either way, two third-round picks is quite a coup for Miami and will mean the Dolphins have a lot of draft capital to worth with next year.

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Seahawks on track for 4 compensatory picks in the 2025 NFL draft

According to Over the Cap’s projections, Seattle is currently on track to get four comp picks in next year’s draft.

Seahawks general manager John Schneider now has the final say over all personnel decisions. However, the team would not have hired Mike Macdonald as their new head coach they weren’t planning to give him at least some input on roster construction. Already we can see one dramatic change in the organization’s team-building philosophy and it’s arguably related to Macdonald’s influence given where he’s coming from.

During the Pete Carroll years Seattle never made much use of the compensatory pick bucket. This year the team has exactly zero comp picks based on what they did in free agency in 2023. That’s in stark contrast to how things are done in Baltimore, where Macdonald is coming from. No other NFL team has made better use of the comp picks system than the Ravens over the years, and the Seahawks may soon be following suit.

According to Over the Cap’s projections, Seattle is currently on track to get four comp picks in next year’s draft:

  • Fourth-round pick for LG Damien Lewis to Panthers
  • Fifth-round pick for LB Jordyn Brooks to Dolphins
  • Sixth-round pick for LB Bobby Wagner to Commanders
  • Sixth-round pick for TE Colby Parkinson to Rams

Paying Lewis what Carolina was willing to was never a realistic option – and if you think they should have then you have bigger problems than comp picks. One could argue that Brooks was worth the deal he got from Miami – and Schneider’s bizarre answer about why they couldn’t re-sign him doesn’t help his case. However, there is a good argument for letting Brooks walk and hitting the reset button at linebacker – the same principle goes for Bobby Wagner and Washington. Getting anything for Parkinson leaving is just gravy.

Carroll had his strong points to be sure, but this is the right way to build a team and stay competitive in the long run in the modern NFL.

More Seahawks Wire stories

Updated depth chart after first wave of free agency

Every NFL team’s biggest move to start free agency

2024 NFL mock draft: Post-free agency projections

Grading first wave of Seahawks free agent signings

Saints’ comp picks take a hit after NFL adjusts 2024 draft order

The New Orleans Saints saw several compensatory picks fall lower after the 2024 draft order was altered on Monday:

The NFL made an adjustment to the compensatory pick formula for the upcoming 2024 NFL Draft, which moved what was a sixth-round pick for the Cincinnati Bengals up to a third-round pick at No. 97 overall. So what’s the ripple effect for the New Orleans Saints?

Ultimately, this also moves the remaining compensatory picks behind 97 overall down one spot. The Saints began with picks at No. 167, 169, and 174, which will now all move down to 168, 170, and 175.

As a refresher, those three picks the Saints received are from losing David Onyemata, Marcus Davenport, and Kaden Elliss in free agency last year. They will not receive picks for Shy Tuttle, Andy Dalton, or Deonte Harty as those losses counteracted the additions of Nathan Shepherd, Jamaal Williams, and Khalen Saunders. The loss of Justin Evans will also not be factored in as a CFA (compensatory free agent) as he was countered by the signing of Jonathan Abram.

After this adjustment, here is what the Saints’ 2024 draft picks are looking like:

  • Round 1, Pick 14
  • Round 2, Pick 45 (via Denver Broncos)
  • Round 5, Pick 150
  • Round 5, Pick 168 (compensatory)
  • Round 5, Pick 170 (compensatory)
  • Round 5, Pick 175 (compensatory)
  • Round 6, Pick 190
  • Round 6, Pick 199 (via Philadelphia Eagles)
  • Round 7, Pick 239 (via Denver Broncos)

While the Saints are missing third and fourth round picks after last year’s trades, they ultimately have enough Day 3 picks to trade back into Day 2 if they so choose.

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No compensatory picks for the Commanders in the 2024 NFL draft

The Commanders will receive San Francisco’s third-round compensatory pick to complete the Chase Young trade.

There will be 34 compensatory picks awarded in next month’s 2024 NFL draft, but the Washington Commanders will have none.

This was expected, as Washington actually signed more players than it lost during the 2023 free-agency cycle. Last March, the Commanders signed quarterback Jacoby Brissett, center/guard Nick Gates, right tackle Andrew Wylie, linebacker Cody Barton, and offensive tackle Trent Scott, among others.

Meanwhile, the Commanders lost quarterback Taylor Heinicke and linebacker Cole Holcomb in free agency.

Heinicke was essentially swapped out for Brissett, with Brissett earning a larger salary in 2023.

None of Washington’s 2023 signings panned out. Gates, who signed a three-year deal, will be released when the new league year opens next week. Gates was benched ahead of Week 8 last season after struggling at center. Wylie was better, but not by a lot. Brissett played well in his brief appearances, while Barton was nothing special.

The Commanders had a third-round compensatory selection last year and used it to select Arkansas center Ricky Stromberg. Stromberg barely played and was placed on injured reserve with a knee injury.

Washington will have nine picks in next month’s draft, including six of the top 103 selections. The Commanders will receive the 49ers’ compensatory pick (No. 99 overall) to complete the Chase Young trade.

 

2024 NFL draft: Ravens’ 8 picks officially set

The Baltimore Ravens will have eight picks in the 2024 NFL Draft after being awarded a fourth round compensatory pick

The Baltimore Ravens will have eight picks in April’s NFL draft after being awarded a fourth-round compensatory pick for Ben Powers’s departure in 2023 free agency.

The extra pick comes after Powers signed a four-year, $51 million deal with the Broncos last spring.

The NFL announced today that 14 teams have been awarded 34 compensatory draft selections in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Baltimore lost two qualifying free agents while signing one last offseason.

Powers signed a deal worth $13 million a year with Denver, and Josh Oliver signed a deal worth $7 million with the Vikings. The Ravens signed Nelson Agholor, which canceled out the pick they would have received for losing Oliver.