Comp Picks – Syndication Server

Wasted Free Agency: Cowboys projected to have just 5th-most comp pick value in 2025

The Cowboys saved cap space and money, but they basically traded away their exiting 2024 free agency class for Jonathan Mingo. It probably wasn’t a coincidence. | From @KDDrummondNFL

The Dallas Cowboys let a lot of talent walk out the door in 2024. Not only dd defensive coordinator Dan Quinn leave to become the head coach of the Washington Commanders, but the team lost significant free agents as well.

Dallas didn’t try to replace them with much either, meaning that they will likely receive the maximum number of compensatory picks in April’s draft. But just because they maxed out on picks, doesn’t mean they made the right decision. Dallas didn’t seem to get a ton of value, compared to the holes that were left on their roster.

In exchange for allowing OT Tyron Smith, DE Dorance Armstrong, DE Dante Fowler, center Tyler Biadasz and RB Tony Pollard walk in free agency, OverTheCap is predicting Dallas will receive four compensatory draft picks in 2025.

And while Dallas is tied with Baltimore for the most projected picks, they only rank fifth among 14 teams in terms of comp pick value. They are set to receive just three fifth-round picks and one sixth-round pick.

Those picks, projected to be No. 171, No. 173, No. 175 and No. 212, total 73.2 points on the trade value chart.

That’s less than half the value of league-leading Miami (147), and trailing Minnesota (112), Baltimore (83.5) and San Francisco (73.5).

73.2 is almost the exact value of the Cowboys’ missing fourth rounder, sent to Carolina in exchange for WR Jonathan Mingo. Pick No. 112 is worth 70 points on the value chart.

Comp picks are awarded based on a formula centered around how many qualifying free agents a team loses, cancelled by ones they sign, and adjusted for contract value. The Cowboys, like the Ravens, pay special attention to their comp-pick ledger each season, so it’s more than likely they knew what the value of their incoming picks would look like when they traded for Mingo.

Broncos not projected to get any comp picks in 2025 NFL draft

The Broncos are not expected to receive any compensatory draft picks in 2025.

Each spring, the NFL awards compensatory draft picks to teams who essentially lost more than they gained in free agency in the previous year (the exact formula is more complicated than that). The comp picks are awarded beginning with the end of the third round.

This year, the Denver Broncos are not expected to receive any comp picks. OverTheCap.com estimates that the team’s loss of center Lloyd Cushenberry was canceled out by the signing of wide receiver Josh Reynolds.

Meanwhile, Denver’s loss of inside linebacker Josey Jewell was canceled out by the signing of safety Brandon Jones. Additionally, the Broncos signed linebacker Cody Barton and defensive lineman Malcolm Roach in 2024. So Denver won’t get extra picks in 2025.

The Broncos have not been awarded a comp pick since 2018, when they received one extra pick. Before that, Denver received four comp picks each year from 2015-2017. Overall, they have received 22 comp picks since 1999.

The Broncos hold seven picks to use in the 2025 NFL draft (April 24-26).

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Saints might get a compensatory draft pick in 2025 after all

The New Orleans Saints might get a compensatory draft pick in 2025 after all. But it’s far from a sure thing, and all things considered, it’s pretty low stakes:

Could the New Orleans Saints finally have a full assortment of picks in the 2025 NFL draft? They rejected temptation and didn’t trade away any of next year’s picks in the 2024 draft, only using a couple of current-year picks to move up in Round 2 for cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry.

It’s a good thing, too. The Saints already traded their pick in the seventh and final round of the 2025 draft along with defensive back C.J. Gardner-Johnson in 2022. That pick conveyed to the Philadelphia Eagles, who sent back a fifth-round pick in 2023 (which was traded to move up for offensive lineman Nick Saldiveri) as well as a sixth-round pick in 2024 (that became defensive tackle Khristian Boyd). So while the Saints own their picks in the first six rounds, that seventh rounder is going to Philadelphia.

But New Orleans just might get another seventh-round selection to make up for it. Over The Cap’s Nick Korte forecasts the Saints to receive a seventh-round compensatory draft pick in 2025 for losing either cornerback Isaac Yiadom or linebacker Zack Baun in free agency this spring. The deadline for comp pick considerations passed on Monday, April 30, so they’re one step closer.

Of course it isn’t that simple. Depending on which player factors into the comp picks formula, how often Yiadom or Baun is on the field (for the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles, respectively) will impact the valuations. Baun was previously ranked higher in Korte’s calculations, but now it’s Yiadom slotting in as the qualifier.

It also depends on other players around the league outplaying the Saints’ qualifiers and bumping them down the ranking. Either way, this is pretty low stakes. The comp pick in question would be the second-to-last pick in the 2025 draft. This year, that was No. 256 overall, just nearly Mr. Irrelevant himself. It would be nice for the Saints to get another comp pick in 2025, replacing the selection traded to the Eagles, but no one should lose sleep over the second-to-last pick.

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Signing Chase Young likely takes Saints out of the running for 2025 comp picks

The Saints have enjoyed the benefits of comp picks in recent years, but signing Chase Young makes it unlikely they’ll see any in 2025:

It was fun while it lasted. The New Orleans Saints have enjoyed the benefits of compensatory draft picks in recent years, but signing Chase Young makes it unlikely they’ll see any extra picks in 2025. Few teams have received as many comp picks as the Saints over the last four draft cycles, owing to their losses in free agency:

2021: Comp picks in rounds three (Nos. 98 and 105) and six (218)
2022: Comp picks in round three (Nos. 98 and 101)
2023: Comp pick in round seven (No. 257)
2024: Comp picks in round five (Nos. 168, 170, and 175)

Remember, comp pics are awarded based on free agents lost against those signed in the previous offseason. And before the Saints signed Young, they were breaking even according to the analysts at Over The Cap who predict comp picks every year. After signing Young, it’s unlikely the Saints will lose any qualifying free agents who would balance him out.

Here’s where the Saints stand:

Players lost: Malcolm Roach (7th round), Lonnie Johnson Jr. (DNQ), Zack Baun (TBA), and Isaac Yiadom (TBA)
Players gained: Chase Young (4th round) Willie Gay Jr. (7th round), Nathan Peterman (TBA), Zander Horvath (DNQ)

So unless Baun and Yiadom each signed qualifying offers (which seems unlikely, as their agencies would have bragged about it by now) then we should assume they won’t factor in. And the list of qualifying players is wearing down quickly.

Remember, no players who were released — like Michael Thomas and Jameis Winston, or Marcus Maye — qualify for comp picks. Neither do players whose contracts were shortened after signing, as was the case with Andrus Peat. Which means the Saints would need someone like Johnathan Abram, Ugo Amadi, Keith Kirkwood, or Max Garcia to sign a really nice free agent contract in order to tip the scales back in their favor.

And don’t bet on that. Odds are strong that the Saints will sign a couple more qualifying free agents than they’ll lose while working to address their problems this offseason. For now, they have plenty of draft picks stored up for 2025 (everything but a seventh rounder going to the Philadelphia Eagles, who else, as part of last year’s C.J. Gardner-Johnson trade).

It would be nice to pad that out with a couple of comp picks, but at this point it just doesn’t seem likely. Maybe Young plays out of his mind this season and signs a lucrative contract somewhere else in 2025, which could bring back a good comp pick in 2026.

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Saints’ comp picks take a hit after NFL adjusts 2024 draft order

The New Orleans Saints saw several compensatory picks fall lower after the 2024 draft order was altered on Monday:

The NFL made an adjustment to the compensatory pick formula for the upcoming 2024 NFL Draft, which moved what was a sixth-round pick for the Cincinnati Bengals up to a third-round pick at No. 97 overall. So what’s the ripple effect for the New Orleans Saints?

Ultimately, this also moves the remaining compensatory picks behind 97 overall down one spot. The Saints began with picks at No. 167, 169, and 174, which will now all move down to 168, 170, and 175.

As a refresher, those three picks the Saints received are from losing David Onyemata, Marcus Davenport, and Kaden Elliss in free agency last year. They will not receive picks for Shy Tuttle, Andy Dalton, or Deonte Harty as those losses counteracted the additions of Nathan Shepherd, Jamaal Williams, and Khalen Saunders. The loss of Justin Evans will also not be factored in as a CFA (compensatory free agent) as he was countered by the signing of Jonathan Abram.

After this adjustment, here is what the Saints’ 2024 draft picks are looking like:

Round 1, Pick 14
Round 2, Pick 45 (via Denver Broncos)
Round 5, Pick 150
Round 5, Pick 168 (compensatory)
Round 5, Pick 170 (compensatory)
Round 5, Pick 175 (compensatory)
Round 6, Pick 190
Round 6, Pick 199 (via Philadelphia Eagles)
Round 7, Pick 239 (via Denver Broncos)

While the Saints are missing third and fourth round picks after last year’s trades, they ultimately have enough Day 3 picks to trade back into Day 2 if they so choose.

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Sean Payton is signing away yet another Saints free agent

Sean Payton is bringing more of his former players to Denver. NFL Network reports the Broncos plan on signing Saints free agent Malcolm Roach:

Sean Payton is bringing more of his former players to Denver Broncos. NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports the Broncos plan on signing New Orleans Saints free agent Malcolm Roach at the start of the new league year on Wednesday, ending his four-year run with the team.

A former undrafted free agent out of Texas, Roach developed into an active run stopper for the Saints while averaging about 28 snaps per game last year at the bottom of the defensive tackles rotation; he was sidelined with an injury for the final five games in 2023 but still finished the year with the fifth-most tackles at or behind the line of scrimmage (10). For comparison, Bryan Bresee and Nathan Shepherd each had 11 in 17 games.

Pelissero adds that Roach’s contract is valued at up to $8 million on a two-year deal, so he may qualify for a compensatory draft pick in 2025. We’ll have to wait and see how the rest of the Saints’ moves in free agency shake out.

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Saints hosting veteran cornerback Avonte Maddox on free agent visit

The New Orleans Saints are hosting veteran cornerback Avonte Maddox on a free agent visit. He could upgrade Alontae Taylor in the slot:

This could be an interesting pickup. NewOrleans.Football’s Nick Underhill reports that the New Orleans Saints are hosting cornerback Avonte Maddox on a free agent visit; the Philadelphia Eagles recently released him to save salary cap resources after a string of injuries limited his availability in recent years.

Still, he’s just turning 28 in March, and he’s been one of the game’s better defenders in the slot when healthy. Maddox has logged more than 1,735 snaps in the slot through his six-year NFL career. He’d be a big upgrade over Alontae Taylor in that role.

Taylor struggled last year when he split time in training camp learning a new position while actively competing with Paulson Adebo to start outside. He had never played at the nickel before in either college or the NFL, and no player was targeted more often than him in the slot as teams keyed in on that vulnerability.

It remains to be seen whether Maddox would be starting ahead of Taylor or competing with him for the job, but he’d be a good pickup for the Saints either way. Having a veteran who is so experienced in that role next to him in the film room would be great for Taylor’s development. And because Maddox was released by the Eagles, he will not count into the compensatory picks formula for the 2025 NFL draft, and the Saints don’t need to wait until the start of the new league year on Wednesday to sign him..

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NFL awards the Saints three compensatory picks in the 2024 NFL draft

The projections got it right this year. The NFL awarded the Saints three compensatory picks in the 2024 NFL draft:

The projections got it right this year. The NFL awarded the New Orleans Saints three compensatory picks in the 2024 NFL draft, all slotted into the fifth round:

Round 5, Pick 167
Round 5, Pick 169
Round 5, Pick 174

These extra draft selections were awarded as compensation for players the Saints lost in free agency last offseason — defensive tackle David Onyemata, defensive end Marcus Davenport, and linebacker Kaden Elliss. There was a possibility the Saints could have had that draft choice for Onyemata slotted into the end of the fourth round instead of the beginning of the fifth frame’s comp picks, given some uncertainty in different models, but it was always likelier to fall in this place.

So what will the Saints do with these extra picks? Their history suggests these draft resources will be spent trading up to target players in the earlier rounds. New Orleans has been given six comp picks over the last three draft classes and general manager Mickey Loomis has traded all of them in moves up the board, which you can read more about here.

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Little potential for compensatory draft picks in the Saints’ 2025 forecast

Experts see little potential for compensatory draft picks in the Saints’ 2025 forecast. Mickey Loomis must make the most of his choices in 2024:

It’s been good to see the New Orleans Saints changing their valuation of compensatory draft picks in recent years. Acquiring extra draft picks in exchange for losing free agents to other teams has worked out for them. Just look at their past history:

2021: Comp picks in rounds three (Nos. 98 and 105) and six (218)
2022: Comp picks in rounds three (Nos. 98 and 101)
2023: Comp pick in round seven (No. 257)

And while the Saints expect to continue that trend in 2024 (they’re projected to receive three extra picks in the fifth round, per Over The Cap) the forecast for 2025 isn’t looking very favorable. Remember, teams are awarded comp picks in the following year’s draft based off the current year’s free agency results. And New Orleans simply lacks many players who are seen as desirable qualifiers.

OTC’s Nick Korte explains:

The Saints remain devoted to keeping core players on their roster, no matter how much they amortize the cap dollars associated with their contracts to do so. This regularly leaves them with few CFA worthy players hitting free agency. But on the other hand, filling up on incumbent players also tends to make them avoid free agency. In the past couple of seasons this has generated some comp picks for them, but typically they do not care much about them, and this could be one of those seasons where they revert to their mean.

Many of the Saints’ top players expected to become available will not qualify for the comp picks formula: guys like Jameis Winston, Michael Thomas, and Andrus Peat. It’s possible that backups on defense earn better opportunities and higher salaries elsewhere, but any signings the Saints make could balance out the losses (and possible comp picks) for defensive tackle Malcolm Roach, linebacker Zack Baun, or cornerback Isaac Yiadom.

So that means the Saints must make the most of their comp picks while they have them. And fans should expect them to be traded. The Saints have traded every comp pick they’ve received in the last three years:

Both third-round comp picks in 2021 were packaged in a trade to move up and pick cornerback Paulson Adebo
The seventh-round comp pick in 2021 was traded in a move up for offensive tackle Landon Young
Both third-round comp picks in 2022 were traded; No. 98 was used to move up for wide receiver Chris Olave, while No. 101 was traded in the package of picks used to get another first rounder, which became left tackle Trevor Penning
And the seventh-round comp pick in 2023 was packaged with tight end Adam Trautman in a trade up, targeting wide receiver A.T. Perry

So this tells us that Saints general manager Mickey Loomis tends to view comp picks as trade ammunition more than anything else. He’s known as an aggressive wheeler-and-dealer on draft day, and recent history lays out his go-to strategy very clearly. We’ll see if the trend continues in 2024, but the Saints may not have the promise of extra picks to lean on in 2025, depending on how free agency plays out this March.

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Broncos not projected to get any comp picks for 2024 NFL draft

The Broncos are not expected to receive any compensatory draft picks from the NFL this offseason.

Each offseason, the NFL awards compensatory draft picks beginning in the third round. Clubs receive the comp picks based on a formula that essentially helps teams who lost more than they gained in free agency the previous year.

The Denver Broncos will not receive any comp picks in 2024, according to a projection from OverTheCap.com.

While the Broncos won’t get any comp picks this year, two of their 2023 free agent signings created comp picks for other teams.

The Baltimore Ravens are projected to get a fourth-round pick for losing guard Ben Powers to Denver and the Cincinnati Bengals are projected to get a seventh-round pick for losing running back Samaje Perine to the Broncos last offseason.

Here’s a look at Denver’s projected picks for April’s draft.

Round 1: own pick (12th overall)
Round 3: via NO (Sean Payton trade)
Round 4: via MIA (Bradley Chubb trade)
Round 5: own pick
Round 5: via NYJ (Jake Marin trade)
Round 6: via SF (Randy Gregory trade)

(View the trade explanations here.)

The 2024 NFL draft will be held in Detroit from April 25-27.

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