The Indianapolis Colts (2-4) stop by Levi’s Stadium to play the San Francisco 49ers (2-3) on Sunday Night Football in Week 7. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Colts vs. 49ers prop bet odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
Indy handled business last weekend by crushing the Houston Texans 31-3 as 11.5-point home favorites. Colts RB Jonathan Taylor rushed for 145 yards on just 14 carries with two rushing TDs. QB Carson Wentz completed 11-of-20 passes for 223 yards and a 2 TD:0 INT ratio.
San Francisco had a bye Week 6 and announced earlier this week QB Jimmy Garoppolo will be starting vs. the Colts Sunday after rookie QB Trey Lance was ruled out with a knee injury.
Colts at 49ers prop bet picks and predictions
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:30 a.m. ET.
49ers RB Elijah Mitchell UNDER 62.5 rushing yards (-118)
If San Francisco’s offense is going to have success on Sunday Night Football then it’ll most likely have to come through the passing game.
According to Football Outsiders, Indy’s defense has the best rushing DVOA in the NFL and the Colts have played against formidable ground games. In fact, three of Indy’s opponents are in the top-10 of offensive rushing DVOA: Seattle Seahawks, Tennesee Titans and Baltimore Ravens.
Furthermore, the Colts give up the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs and the 10th-fewest yards per rush. Also, Indy’s defense has two top-tier players in its front seven, including former 49ers DT DeForest Buckner and LB Darius Leonard.
On top of that, Mitchell’s rushing prop is bloated in the first place. Mitchell is a rookie dealing with injuries and has only played in three games, one of which he ran for more than 62.5 yards.
The team that Mitchell gained more than 62.5 rushing yards against was the Detroit Lions, who are ranked 26th by Football Outsiders in defensive rushing DVOA.
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Colts RB Jonathan Taylor Anytime Touchdown scorer (-105)
After failing to hit paydirt in his first three games, Taylor has scored five combined TDs in the last three contests. The difference in my opinion between Taylor’s production early and lately is Wentz getting comfy in his new surroundings and realizing Taylor is his best skill position player.
Moreover, Indy announced this week that WR T.Y. Hilton is sidelined with an injury for this game and the weather forecast is predicting a rainy, windy night in San Francisco.
Wentz having fewer receiving options combined with Taylor having the second-most receiving yards for the Colts and the weather conditions grounding both teams’ aerial attacks equals more Taylor reps in this game.
At nearly even money, I love the value in Jonathan Taylor‘s Anytime Touchdown prop (-105).
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