Tag: Cleveland Indians odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Chicago White Sox (86-67) continue their five-game series with the Cleveland Indians (75-77) Friday. First pitch from Progessive Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the White Sox vs. Indians odds with MLB picks and predictions.

These teams split a seven-inning doubleheader Thursday with the White Sox winning the first 7-2 and the Indians taking the second game 5-3.

Season series: Tied 8-8.

RHP Dylan Cease is Chicago’s projected starter. Cease is 12-7 with a 4.09 ERA (156 1/3 IP, 71 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 across 30 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 8-0, with 5 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 10 K Sept. 17 at the Texas Rangers.
  • Cease lost 6-5 on the road in his only start against Cleveland this season with 3 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 2 K.
  • vs. Indians on the current roster (31 PA): 5.70 FIP with a .333 batting average (BA), .440 wOBA, .427 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 32.3 K% and 88.4 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Shane Bieber makes his 15th start for the Indians. Bieber is 7-4 with a 3.28 ERA (90 2/3 IP, 33 ER), 1.25 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 12.9 this year.

  • Last outing: Loss, 6-2, with 5 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 10 H, 2 BB and 8 K June 13 vs. the Seattle Mariners.
  • Bieber is 3-0 in three starts this season against Chicago with a 2.05 ERA (22 IP, 5 ER), 0.86 WHIP and 7.3 K/BB.
  • vs. White Sox on the current roster (164 PA): 3.05 FIP with a .250 BA, .303 wOBA, .387 xSLG, 32.9 K% and 90.1 mph EV.

White Sox at Indians odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:40 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: White Sox -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Indians +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: White Sox -1.5 (+135) | Indians +1.5 (-170)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Prediction

Indians 6, White Sox 3

Money line (ML)

GIMME the INDIANS (+100) for 1 unit because Bieber’s pitching peripherals and basic numbers against the White Sox are far better than Cease’s against Cleveland’s lineup.

Chicago is a bad road team and Cease’s pitching performance declines when he’s away from home. The White Sox are 37-40 overall on the road and Cease has a 5.02 road ERA (3.22 ERA at home) and a 1.37 road WHIP (1.16 WHIP at home).

Furthermore, Chicago is kind of snoozing down the stretch with not much to play for – the White Sox are 5-5 overall in their last 10 games – and these teams have played to a draw thus far.

Lastly, we have “reverse line movement” in the betting market as nearly 90% of the cash wagered has been on Chicago but the line is moving in Cleveland’s direction, according to Pregame.com. Whenever the sportsbook makes the more popular side cheaper it suggests they believe that side is mispriced.

If you’re giving me an even- or a plus-money payout with the reigning AL Cy Young at home against a team he’s dominated, how can I pass? BET the INDIANS (+100).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because the Indians +1.5 (-170) is a terrible bet considering Cleveland is 15-18 ATS as a home underdog even though getting a run-and-a-half worth of insurance with Bieber on the mound would be awesome.

Over/Under (O/U)

TAKE OVER 7.5 (-130) for 1 unit because the presumed sharp side of the market is backing the Over while the public is betting the Under.

Close to 90% of the money is on the Over but roughly 70% of the bets placed are on the Under according to Pregame.com at the time of writing.

Typically, it’s profitable to follow the money in sports betting when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public.

Furthermore, there are several Over-friendly trends in this White Sox-Indians matchup including these teams being a combined 22-19 O/U record when these starters are on the mound.

Also, the Under is heavily juiced, which suggests the oddsmakers want more pro-Over bets. We don’t want to play into the House’s hands.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Cleveland Indians at New York Yankees odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Cleveland Indians at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cleveland Indians (71-74) and New York Yankees (83-65) continue their three-game series Saturday at Yankee Stadium with the first pitch scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Indians vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.

New York pelted Cleveland 8-0 in the series opener as Yankees LF Joey Gallo homered twice, and RHP Corey Kluber pitched six scoreless innings.

Season series: Yankees lead 4-1.

RHP Aaron Civale is Cleveland’s projected starter. Civale is 10-3 with a 3.76 ERA (105 1/3 IP, 44 ER), 1.11 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 over 17 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 11-1, with 3 IP, 7 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 3 K Sunday against the Milwaukee Brewers.
  • Civale got a no-decision April 22 in Cleveland’s 6-3 home loss to New York with a stat line of 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 6 K.
  • vs. Yankees on the current roster: 3.32 FIP with a .306 batting average, .344 wOBA, .334 expected slugging percentage, 17.1 K% and 85.1 mph exit velocity in 41 plate appearances.

RHP Luis Gil makes his sixth MLB start for the Yankees. Gil is 1-0 with a 2.88 ERA (25 IP, 8 ER), 1.28 WHIP, 5.4 BB/9 and 11.5 K/9 in his rookie season.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 8 K in New York’s 6-5 win over the Minnesota Twins Monday.

Indians at Yankees odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:20 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Indians +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Yankees -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Indians +1.5 (-135) | Yankees -1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

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Prediction

Yankees 5, Indians 2

Money line (ML)

PASS despite giving New York the edge in this spot because the Yankees (-190) is too expensive considering they have just a 56.5% winning rate as a home favorite (39-30 overall), but the implied win probability of New York’s money line is 65.5%. Essentially, the math doesn’t back up laying it with the Yankees (-190).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the YANKEES -1.5 (+110) for a tiny wager only because there has been “sharp line movement” in the Indians’ direction. This game opened with Cleveland’s consensus run line being priced at roughly -112 but has been bet up.

However, nine of the Indians’ previous 10 losses have been by at least three runs, which makes sense when you look at how their bullpen is performing.

In September, Cleveland’s relief pitching has the third-worst WAR, second-worst home run per nine-inning rate and the second-worst hard-hit rate.

I’m willing to sprinkle on New York’s money line in hopes of its lineup full of mashers can go yard a couple of times against Cleveland’s bullpen to put this game out of reach.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET the UNDER 9.5 (-120) for 1 unit because both lineups have really struggled this month and New York is 27-39-3 O/U as a home favorite.

For instance, Cleveland’s lineup ranks dead-last this month in wRC+, WAR and wOBA while the Yankees batters are in the bottom-10 in each of those metrics this month as well.

Furthermore, we have some “reverse line movement” in the Under’s direction. According to Pregame.com, more than 80% of the action is on the Over, but the Under is the more expensive side. That suggests oddsmakers are enticing more action on the Over, and you don’t want to play into the House’s hand.

Also see: 2021 World Series odds for all teams

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Cleveland Indians at New York Yankees odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Cleveland Indians at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Yankees (82-65) host the Cleveland Indians (71-73) on Friday for the start of their three-game series at Yankee Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Indians vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.

New York had its three-game winning streak snapped against the Baltimore Orioles on Thursday in their series finale. Meanwhile, Cleveland won two of three in its series against the Minnesota Twins but have won only three of its last 10 games.

Season series: Yankees lead 3-1.

RHP Zach Plesac is Cleveland’s projected starter. Plesac is 10-5 with a 4.45 ERA (125 1/3 IP, 62 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 in 22 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 3-0, with 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 3 K Saturday vs. the Milwaukee Brewers.
  • 2021 road splits: 7-3 with a 4.74 ERA (62 2/3 IP, 33 ER), 1.21 WHIP and 2.6 K/BB in 11 starts.

RHP Corey Kluber is set for his 14th start for the Yankees. Kluber is 4-3 with a 4.02 ERA (65 IP, 29 ER), 1.31 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: No decision with 4 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 6 K in 8-7 victory at the New York Mets on Saturday.
  • 2021 home splits: 1-2 with a 2.79 ERA (29 IP, 9 ER), 1.31 WHIP and 1.9 K/BB in six starts.

Indians at Yankees odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated Friday at 12:50 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Indians +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Yankees -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Indians +1.5 (-130) | Yankees -1.5 (+105)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Yankees 4, Indians 3

Money line (ML)

PASS  even though New York should win. The Yankees (-200) is far too expensive considering how inconsistent, at best, their hitting has been.

New York split its previous two games with Baltimore but they only scored four and two runs in those contests. The Yankees are 4-6 in their last 10 games and 7-13 in the last 20. Does that sound like a team you should lay -200 with?

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

LEAN to the INDIANS +1.5 (-130) because they are 31-17 ATS as a road underdog while the Yankees are 26-42 as a home favorite.

Just listing these records lacks context, obviously, but essentially New York’s hitting and relief pitching just aren’t reliable. The Yankees have the seventh-most blown saves in the majors and we’ve seen teams continuously sneak in the backdoor or steal a game late against New York.

The reasons for the lean are Plesac’s rough advanced pitching numbers against active Yankees batters, and he gave up 20 home runs in his first 19 starts.

Over/Under (O/U)

LEAN to the UNDER 8.5 (+100) only because we are getting to the party late since the Indians-Yankees opened with a 10-run total but has been moved down thanks to the wiseguys.

This is a “pros vs. joes” game: Nearly 90% of the cash is on the Under while 53% of the bets placed are on the Over, according to Pregame.com. Typically, it’s profitable in sports betting to follow the money when it’s opposite of the public.

The logic behind this being a lower-scoring game is New York’s hitting hiccups and Kluber being dialed in to face his former team. This start has to mean something to Kluber after he played for Cleveland from 2011-19, won two Cy Young Awards and an AL pennant with the Indians in 2016.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Milwaukee Brewers at Cleveland Indians odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Cleveland Indians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (87-55) continue their three-game series with the Cleveland Indians (69-70) at Progressive Field with the first pitch scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Brewers vs. Indians odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee hammered Cleveland 10-3 in the series opener as Brewers trade deadline acquisition IF Eduardo Escobar went yard twice starting RHP Adrian Houser had 6 IP, 0 ER (2 runs scored), 1 H, 5 BB and 5 K.

Season series: Brewers lead 1-0.

RHP Corbin Burnes (9-4, 2.38 ERA) is Milwaukee’s projected starter. Burnes has a 0.96 WHIP, 12.3 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 through 144 IP across 24 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision in Milwaukee’s 6-5 home win vs. the St. Louis Cardinals Sunday with a stat line of 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 7 K.
  • Burnes is 5-1 all-time in interleague games with a 1.42 ERA (56 IP, 9 ER), 0.71 WHIP and 5.7 K/BB through eight starts and four bullpen outings.

RHP Zach Plesac (10-4, 4.53 ERA) takes the hill for the Indians. Plesac has a 1.17 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 over 119 1/3 IP across 21 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 11-5, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 3 BB and 5 K Sunday at the Boston Red Sox.
  • Home splits: 3-1 with a 4.29 ERA (56 2/3 IP, 27 ER), 1.13 WHIP and 3.9 K/BB in 10 starts.

Brewers at Indians odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:24 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Indians +160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (-112) | Indians +1.5 (-108)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Prediction

Brewers 5, Indians 2

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the BREWERS (-200) only because I’d rather include them in a parlay with another favorite for an even- or plus-money payout than bet Milwaukee outright. Also, the Brew Crew on the run line offers better value.

However, Burnes has the third-best odds on Tipico Sportsbook to win the NL Cy Young and has been lights out on the road. He leads the majors in FIP (1.58), K/BB (7.0) and home run per nine-inning rate (0.3), and is 6-0 with a 1.83 ERA (68 2/3 IP, 14 ER), 0.85 WHIP and 10.2 K/BB across 11 road starts.

Furthermore, the Indians have the second-worst winning percentage as home underdogs at 8-21 overall, which is a pretty big sample size. I’d RISK only 1 unit on Milwaukee’s money line rather than bet 1 unit. What I mean by that is if your standard bet is $100 then put that on BREWERS (-200) to hopefully earn a $50 profit.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET BREWERS -1.5 (-112) for 1 unit since they have an edge in the three most important phases of the game (starting pitching, relief pitching and hitting).

Cleveland is 14-15 ATS as a home underdog and Milwaukee is 26-19 ATS as a road favorite, which is the second-best cover rate in that spot across the league.

There’s been a “sharp line move” towards Milwaukee with more than 95% of the cash wagered in the ATS market being on the Brewers according to Pregame.com. Sportsbooks have responded by increasing Milwaukee’s run line price from a -103 consensus to the current number.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 8.5 (+105) because Plesac has pitched well in his last two outings and Burnes can shut down this below-average Cleveland lineup.

That said, this is a “pros vs. joes” game with the presumed sharp money favoring the Over. No way I’d bet the Over in this spot but I also don’t want to fade the sharp side of the market.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cleveland Indians (67-65) meet the Boston Red Sox (78-59) Saturday for the second game of their three-game series at Fenway Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Indians vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Boston beat Cleveland in the season opener Friday 8-5 and keyed the victory with a 5-run 7th-inning rally.

Season series: Red Sox lead 3-1.

RHP Eli Morgan gets the nod for the Indians. Morgan is 2-6 with a 5.98 ERA (61 2/3 IP, 41 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 across 13 starts in his rookie season.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 3 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 1 BB and 3 K in Cleveland’s 7-5 victory over Boston Sunday.
  • 2021 road splits: 1-1 with a 4.00 ERA (27 IP, 12 ER), 0.96 WHIP and 9.3 K/BB in five starts.

RHP Tanner Houck is on the mound for the Red Sox. Houck is 0-3 with a 3.63 ERA (44 2/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 in nine starts and two relief appearances.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 1 H, 4 BB and 3 K in Boston’s 7-5 loss to Cleveland Sunday.
  • 2021 home splits: 0-3 with a 3.77 ERA (28 2/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.29 WHIP and 8.2 K/BB in six starts and one bullpen outing.

Indians at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:08 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Indians +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Red Sox -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Indians +1.5 (-117) | Red Sox -1.5 (-103)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Prediction

Indians 5, Red Sox 3

Money line (ML)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Indians (+170) because I’m going to throw a little change at Cleveland’s run line.

Morgan has been more effective on the road than at home this season and the Indians beat the Red Sox last week in this same starting pitcher’s duel.

Cleveland’s lineup has been raking over the past two weeks; the Indians have ranked third in wRC+, fourth in WAR and second in wOBA over that span.

Maybe I’ll sprinkle on Indians (+170) before the first pitch but, for now, I’ll stick with Cleveland’s run line.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET the INDIANS +1.5 (-117) for 1 unit since their lineup has been hitting better than Boston’s recently, the pitching matchup is a toss-up and Cleveland is 27-16 ATS as a road underdog while the Red Sox are 26-29 ATS as a home favorite.

Furthermore, there’s notable “reverse line movement” (RLM) in the betting market as nearly 95% of the cash is on Boston covering but Cleveland’s run line has gone from a -109 consensus number to the current price according to Pregame.com.

It’s a red flag that oddsmakers have reacted to the one-sided pro-Boston action by making the Indians more expensive. It should work the opposite way.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET to the UNDER 9.5 (-122) for 1 unit because there’s also been slight RLM on the total that opened at a flat-10, but has been steamed down despite roughly 70% of the action being on the Over.

My play on the Under is strictly a “contrarian play” against an Over that seems square. Once diving into this handicap, I noticed that both starting pitchers wouldn’t be starting for their ball clubs in September if it weren’t for injuries, both bullpens have struggled after the All-Star Game and each lineup is hitting very well lately. Seems like a sure-fire Over, right?

When I factor in the noticeable RLM to all those Over-friendly angles, I notice that the House is trying to entice more Over money. Let’s get on the same side as the house and BET UNDER 9.5 (-115).

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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