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The Cleveland Guardians and New York Yankees meet Monday in Game 1 of the best-of-7 ALCS. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is set for 7:38 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV/Max). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Guardians vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Regular-season series: Yankees won 4-2
The Guardians emerged victorious in the divisional round after a hard-fought series against the Detroit Tigers, winning 7-3 in Game 5 on Saturday. Cleveland took control when CF Lane Thomas hit a grand slam in the 5th inning. The Guardians are making their 1st ALCS appearance since 2016.
The Yankees advanced to the ALCS by defeating the Kansas City Royals in 4 games, closing out the series with a 3-1 win in Game 4 behind RHP Gerrit Cole (7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 4 K). RF Juan Soto, 2B Gleyber Torres, and DH Giancarlo Stanton each drove in runs while RHP Luke Weaver secured his 3rd postseason save. This is the Yankees’ 4th ALCS since 2017.
Guardians at Yankees projected starters
RHP Alex Cobb vs. LHP Carlos Rodon
Cobb (2-1, 2.76 ERA) made 3 starts in 2024. The 13-year veteran had a 1.04 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9 in 16 1/3 IP.
- Last regular season start: Win, 6 IP, 1 R (0 ER), 2 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 6-1 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sept. 1
- Last start: Loss, 3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 3-0 defeat at the Detroit Tigers Wednesday in ALDS Game 3
- Career vs. Yankees: 7-5, 3.19 ERA (115 2/3 IP, 45 R (41 ER), 95 H, 19 HR, 27 BB, 92 K in 20 starts
- Career postseason: 1-1, 2.45 ERA (14 2/3 IP, 5 R (4 ER), 16 H, 0 HR, 4 BB, 12 K in 3 starts
Rodon (16-9, 3.96 ERA) made 32 starts in 2024. The 10-year veteran had a 1.22 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 175 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 3 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 7 K in 4-2 loss against Kansas City Royals Oct. 7 in ALDS Game 2
- 2022 home splits: 9-2, 3.11 ERA (81 IP, 31 R (28 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 in 14 starts
- Career vs. Guardians: 8-5, 2.81 ERA (125 IP, 42 R (39 ER), 1.10 WHIP, 124 K in 21 games (19 starts)
- Career postseason stats: 0-2, 11.37 ERA (6 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 11 H, 1 HR, 4 BB, 10 K in 3 games
Guardians at Yankees odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at Sunday 10:13 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Guardians +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Yankees -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Run line (RL/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-160) | Yankees -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Guardians at Yankees picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 4, Guardians 2
Moneyline
PASS.
It’s hard not to like the Yankees (-160) straight up to take Game 1 at home, but I’ll take my bet to the run line with better odds.
Run line/Against the spread
BET YANKEES -1.5 (+135).
Backing the Yankees is a solid play. The Yankees breezed through the ALDS, easily dispatching the Royals, while the Guardians had to battle back to get past the Tigers. New York has dominated this matchup recently, outscoring Cleveland 14-1 in their last 2 regular-season games.
Rodon has been strong against Cleveland, going 3-0 in his last 4 starts and allowing fewer than 2 runs per game. Meanwhile, Cobb hasn’t beaten the Yankees since 2018 when he pitched for the Balitmore Orioles.
Given New York’s recent edge and Rodon’s track record, the Yankees have a good chance to cover the -1.5 spread.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 7.5 (-110).
I’m leaning toward the Under in Game 1. The Yankees hit the Under in 3 of their 4 postseason games against the Royals, while the Guardians went 2-2-1 on the Under vs. the Tigers.
With the pressure of Game 1 in the ALCS, it’s common to see nerves and a slower offensive start. In fact, 4 of the last 5 ALCS Game 1 matchups have ended with 7 runs or fewer. Given the history and the situation, the Under is a solid play in this game.
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