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ALCS Game 5: New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians meet in Game 5 of the best-of-7 ALCS Saturday at Progressive Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET (TBS / truTV / Max). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Yankees vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

ALCS: Yankees lead 3-1; Yankees won regular-season series 4-2

After a wild Game 3, it seemed like nothing could top it. But, Game 4 was pretty wild in its own right.

The Yankees had a 6-2 lead at the 7th-inning stretch, but the Guardians posted 3 in the bottom of the frame to make things interesting. A squibber to the pitcher ended up being too hard to handle, and Cleveland tied it up heading to the 9th in front of a raucous crowd at Progressive Field.

However, the Yankees managed to get to closer Emmanuel Clase for a 2nd straight night as he allowed 2 ER and 3 H in his inning of work to take the loss in Jose Mesa-esque fashion when it mattered most.

DH Giancarlo Stanton had a titanic 3-run HR in the top of the 6th for New York’s biggest hit, while 1B Josh Naylor collected 3 RBIs and 3B Jose Ramirez drove in a pair of runs for Cleveland’s big blows.

Now, New York is just a win away from punching its ticket to the World Series, while Cleveland is on the brink of elimination, needing 3 straight victories.

Yankees at Guardians projected starters

LHP Carlos Rodon vs. RHP Tanner Bibee

Rodon (16-9, 3.96 ERA) made 32 regular-season starts. He had a 1.22 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 175 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H (1 solo HR), 0 BB, 9 K in 5-2 home victory in Game 1 of ALCS Monday
  • 2024 road splits (regular season): 7-7, 4.69 ERA (94 IP, 49 ER), 1.34 WHIP, 30 BB, 104 K, .261 opponents’ batting average in 18 starts
  • Career vs. Guardians (regular season): 8-5, 2.81 ERA (125 IP, 39 ER), 1.10 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 in 19 starts (21 appearances)
  • Didn’t face Cleveland in 2024 regular season
  • 2024 postseason: 1-1, 4.66 ERA (9 2/3 IP), 1.03 WHIP, 16 K in 2 starts
  • Career postseason: 1-2, 6.57 ERA (12 1/3 IP), 1.46 WHIP, 19 K in 3 starts and 1 relief appearance

Bibee (12-8, 3.47 ERA) made 31 regular-season starts. He had a 1.12 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 173 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 1 1/3 IP, 2 ER (3 R), 5 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 6-3 road loss in Game 2 of ALCS Tuesday
  • 2024 home splits (regular season): 5-4, 4.15 ERA (89 IP, 41 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 22 BB, 99 K in 16 starts
  • Didn’t face New York in 2024 regular season
  • Career postseason: 0-1, 3.60 ERA (10 IP), 1.70 WHIP, 11 K in 3 starts in 2024

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Yankees at Guardians odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Yankees -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Guardians +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+145) | Guardians +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Yankees at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Guardians 4, Yankees 3

Moneyline

The GUARDIANS (+100) are a solid play in this elimination game. Either way, it is likely to be the final game of the season in Cleveland barring a miraculous comeback in this series.

Cleveland’s offense has risen to the occasion at Progressive Field in the 2 games so far, especially in the late innings, but the bullpen has let it down at times, especially in Game 4. That’s the risk here.

Run line/Against the spread

If you’re a super conservative bettor, GUARDIANS +1.5 (-175) is not priced out of line for some insurance. Ultimately, it might be the better play, but if you like Cleveland, the better value is playing it straight up behind its ace Bibee.

Over/Under

UNDER 7.5 (-120) is the lean in Game 4, but go lightly.

With Cleveland’s season on the line, we could see the offense tighten up a bit. And, for New York, it could struggle to plate as many runs, too. It’s always toughest to get that final win in a series. Look for good pitching, solid defense and runs to be at a premium.

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ALCS Game 4: New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians meet in Game 4 of the best-of-7 ALCS Friday. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET (TBS / truTV / Max). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Yankees vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

ALCS: Yankees lead 2-1; Yankees won regular-season series 4-2

New York dropped its first game of the series with a 7-5 tenth-inning loss Thursday as a -102 underdog. CF Aaron Judge (1-for-5, 2 RBIs) and DH Giancarlo Stanton (1-for-3, 1 RBI) hit back-to-back 8th-inning homers off All-Star RP Emmanuel Clase to give the Yankees a temporary 4-3 lead.

Trailing 5-3, Guardians RF Jhonkensy Noel hit a pinch-hit 2-run HR with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th to extend the game for Cleveland. With 2 outs and 1 on in the bottom of the 10th, 1B David Fry cashed Guardians (-106) tickets with a walk-off 2-run homer to left-center field.

Yankees at Guardians projected starters

RHP Luis Gil vs. RHP Gavin Williams

Gil (15-7, 3.50 ERA) made 29 regular-season starts. The rookie had a 1.19 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 through 151 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 9-4 home setback against Pittsburgh Pirates Sept. 28
  • 2024 vs. Guardians: 0-0, 1 home start (Aug. 20), 3 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 6 BB, 3 K in 9-5 loss in 12 innings
  • Career vs. Guardians: 0-1, 6.14 ERA (7 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 6 H, 10 BB, 9 K in 2 starts

Williams (3-10, 4.86 ERA) made 16 regular-season starts. He had a 1.37 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 through 76 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K in 2-1 loss at St. Louis Cardinals Sept. 22
  • Career vs. Yankees: 0-1, 1 road start (Aug. 22), 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 5 K in 6-0 loss

Yankees at Guardians odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 11:10 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Yankees -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Guardians +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+145) | Guardians +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Yankees at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 5, Guardians 3

Moneyline

PASS.

There is better value on the Yankees’ run line.

Run line/Against the spread

BET YANKEES -1.5 (+145).

New York has had a clear advantage in this series, scoring 5 or more runs in each game, while Cleveland has scored 3 or fewer in 2 of the 3.

Cleveland was able to rally behind its home crowd Thursday, but it will be unable to do the same Friday. With Gil on the mound, expect the Guardians to struggle on offense.

Each of New York’s last 3 wins have come by 2 or more runs.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 7.5 (-115).

The Yankees have a powerful offense. They’ve scored 5 or more runs in 3 straight games and are 5-3-1 O/U in their last 9.

Cleveland may not be able to keep up Friday, but expect it to score enough to tip the total. It has scored 3 or more runs in 4 of its last 5 games.

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ALCS Game 3: New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians meet in Game 3 of their best-of-7 ALCS Thursday at Progressive Field. First pitch is scheduled for 5:08 p.m. ET (TBS / truTV / Max). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Yankees vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

ALCS: Yankees lead 2-0; Yankees won regular-season series 4-2

The Yankees doubled up the Guardians 6-3 in Game 2 Tuesday, cashing as a moderate favorite (-159) with the Over (7) cashing behind Yankees SP Gerrit Cole (4 1/3 IP, 2 ER) and 4 relievers (4 2/3 IP, 1 ER). New York led wire to wire, with CF Aaron Judge swatting a 2-run HR and finishing with 3 RBIs.

While New York was just 2-for-10 with runners in scoring position in Game 2, Cleveland went 0-for-7 RISP.

The Guardians received a solo HR from 3B Jose Ramirez in the top of the 9th, but he is just still 4-for-24 (.167) with a 2B, 2 solo HRs, 2 RBIs, 4 runs and an SB in 7 postseason games.

Yankees at Guardians projected starters

RHP Clarke Schmidt vs. LHP Matthew Boyd

Schmidt (5-5, 2.85 ERA) made 16 regular-season starts. He had a 1.18 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 85 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 3-2 win at Kansas City Royals in Game 3 of the ALDS Oct. 9 — only 2024 postseason appearance
  • 2024 road splits (regular season): 3-3, 1.39 ERA (45 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 17 BB, 46 K, .211 opponents’ batting average (OBA) in 8 starts
  • Career vs. Guardians (regular season): 1-0, 3.52 ERA (15 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.89 WHIP, 10.6 K/9 in 3 starts (4 appearances)
  • 2024 vs. Guardians (regular season): 1 start, win, 5 IP, 1 ER (2 R), 3 H, 5 BB, 7 K in 3-2 road victory April 13
  • Career postseason: 0-2, 6.43 ERA (7 IP, 5 ER), 1.71 WHIP in 1 start and 3 relief appearances

Boyd (2-2, 2.72 ERA) made 8 regular-season starts. He had a 1.13 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 39 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 2 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 7-3 home victory in Game 5 of the ALDS vs. Detroit Tigers Saturday
  • 2024 home splits (regular season): 1-1, 2.25 ERA (20 IP, 5 ER), 0.95 WHIP, 4 BB, 23 K in 4 starts
  • 2024 vs. Yankees (regular season): 1 start, no-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H (2 HR), 4 BB, 2 K in 9-5 road win in 12 innings Aug. 20
  • 2024 postseason: 0-0, 0.00 ERA , 6 2/3 IP, 3 BB, 10 K, 1.20 WHIP in 2 starts

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Yankees at Guardians odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 6:01 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Yankees -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Guardians -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+150) | Guardians +1.5 (-185)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -125 | U: +105)

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Yankees at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Guardians 3, Yankees 2

Moneyline

The GUARDIANS (-105) are worth playing lightly in Game 3 as the home ‘dog as they look to keep their season alive.

Yes, they wouldn’t be eliminated with a loss, but going into a 3-0 hole in a series against the powerful Yankees is basically a death knell.

Cleveland catches a slight break against Schmidt, certainly not the strongest starter in the New York pitching arsenal, and the Yankees were just 21-23 in the regular season vs. left-handers.

Run line/Against the spread

The Guardians +1.5 (-185) will set you back nearly 2 times the potential return. That’s too much risk and not enough reward.

Cleveland should play with some urgency returning home after falling into a 2-0 hole. If you like the Guardians, just play them straight up — on the moneyline.

PASS on the spread.

Over/Under

UNDER 7 (+105) is a solid value at plus-money in Game 3.

We should see a decent pitching performance from the home team as the Yankees struggled against southpaws. Of course, Boyd didn’t go terribly deep into 2 starts for manager Stephen Vogt in the ALDS.

The Over is 3-0-1 in the past 4 games for Cleveland, but just 3-2-2 in 7 postseason games. New York has cashed Unders at a 3-2-1 pace in 6 playoff outings.

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ALCS Game 2: Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Cleveland Guardians and New York Yankees play Game 2 of the best-of-7 ALCS Tuesday. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 7:38 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Guardians vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Playoff series: Yankees lead 1-0 | Regular-season series: Yankees won 4-2

The Yankees won the Monday opener 5-2 as -161 home favorites while the total (7) pushed. RF Juan Soto and DH Giancarlo Stanton each homered, and SP Carlos Rodón allowed 1 ER on 3 hits and no walks with 9 K’s to get his 1st postseason win.

The Guardians threw 5 wild pitches and walked 9 batters in Monday’s setback. Cleveland has lost 7 of the last 9 meetings with the Yankees, including 3 straight.

Guardians at Yankees projected starters

RHP Tanner Bibee vs. RHP Gerrit Cole

Bibee (12-8, 3.47 ERA) made 31 regular-season starts. He had a 1.12 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 173 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 5-4 win at Detroit Tigers Thursday in Game 4 of ALDS
  • 2024 postseason stats: 0-0, 2.08 ERA (8 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 8 H, 3 BB, 9 K in 2 starts
  • 2024 regular-season road stats: 7-4, 2.76 ERA (84 2/3 IP, 26 ER), 1.05 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 in 15 starts
  • Career vs. Yankees: 0-0, 1 road start (May 2, 2023), 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 4-2 road loss in 2nd MLB start

Cole (1-0, 3.00 ERA) made 17 regular-season starts. He had a 1.13 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 95 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 3-1 victory at Kansas City Royals Thursday in Game 4 of ALDS
  • 2024 postseason stats: 1-0, 3.00 ERA (12 IP, 4 ER), 1.25 WHIP, 6.0 K/9 in 2 starts
  • 2024 regular-season home stats: 3-2, 4.31 ERA (48 IP, 23 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 in 9 starts
  • 2024 vs. Guardians: 1-0, 1 home start (Aug. 22), 6 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 5 BB, 2 K in 6-0 win
  • Career vs. Guardians (regular season): 7-2, 2.82 ERA (73 1/3 IP, 23 ER), 0.96 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 in 11 starts
  • Career postseason stats vs. Guardians: 4-0, 1.98 ERA (27 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 0.77 WHIP, 13.5 K/9 in 4 starts

Guardians at Yankees odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 6:33 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Guardians +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Yankees -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-160) | Yankees -1.5 (+135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Guardians at Yankees picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 3, Guardians 2

Moneyline

The Yankees (-175) most likely win with Cole taking the mound in Game 2, but the bid-ask difference is too high to recommend a play.

PASS. Bet the run line and/or total instead.

Run line/Against the spread

The Yankees are averaging just 3.8 runs per game this postseason and already covered a -1.5 run line against Cleveland in Game 1.

We know that Cole will make it difficult for Cleveland to score runs — as he has in the postseason throughout his career — but it’s unlikely the Yankees will score enough to cover as run-line favorites for a 3rd straight game.

BET GUARDIANS +1.5 (-160).

Over/Under

This total is low, and I normally wouldn’t recommend betting the Under on a key number like 7. However, with Bibee and Cole taking the mound, it’s hard to consider playing the Over.

The Yankees have scored 3 or fewer runs in 3 of their last 4 games, and Bibee has allowed 2 ER or fewer in 4 straight starts.

BET UNDER 7 (-115).

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ALCS Game 1: Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Cleveland Guardians and New York Yankees meet Monday in Game 1 of the best-of-7 ALCS. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is set for 7:38 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV/Max). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Guardians vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Regular-season series: Yankees won 4-2

The Guardians emerged victorious in the divisional round after a hard-fought series against the Detroit Tigers, winning 7-3 in Game 5 on Saturday.  Cleveland took control when CF Lane Thomas hit a grand slam in the 5th inning. The Guardians are making their 1st ALCS appearance since 2016.

The Yankees advanced to the ALCS by defeating the Kansas City Royals in 4 games, closing out the series with a 3-1 win in Game 4 behind RHP Gerrit Cole (7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 4 K). RF Juan Soto, 2B Gleyber Torres, and DH Giancarlo Stanton each drove in runs while RHP Luke Weaver secured his 3rd postseason save. This is the Yankees’ 4th ALCS since 2017.

Guardians at Yankees projected starters

RHP Alex Cobb vs. LHP Carlos Rodon

Cobb (2-1, 2.76 ERA) made 3 starts in 2024. The 13-year veteran had a 1.04 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9 in 16 1/3 IP.

  • Last regular season start: Win, 6 IP, 1 R (0 ER), 2 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 6-1 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sept. 1
  • Last start: Loss, 3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 3-0 defeat at the Detroit Tigers Wednesday in ALDS Game 3
  • Career vs. Yankees: 7-5, 3.19 ERA (115 2/3 IP, 45 R (41 ER), 95 H, 19 HR, 27 BB, 92 K in 20 starts
  • Career postseason: 1-1, 2.45 ERA (14 2/3 IP, 5 R (4 ER), 16 H, 0 HR, 4 BB, 12 K in 3 starts

Rodon (16-9, 3.96 ERA) made 32 starts in 2024. The 10-year veteran had a 1.22 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 175 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 3 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 7 K in 4-2 loss against Kansas City Royals Oct. 7 in ALDS Game 2
  • 2022 home splits: 9-2, 3.11 ERA (81 IP, 31 R (28 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 in 14 starts
  • Career vs. Guardians: 8-5, 2.81 ERA (125 IP, 42 R (39 ER), 1.10 WHIP, 124 K in 21 games (19 starts)
  • Career postseason stats: 0-2, 11.37 ERA (6 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 11 H, 1 HR, 4 BB, 10 K in 3 games

Guardians at Yankees odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at Sunday 10:13 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Guardians +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Yankees -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-160) | Yankees -1.5 (+135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Guardians at Yankees picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 4, Guardians 2

Moneyline

PASS.

It’s hard not to like the Yankees (-160) straight up to take Game 1 at home, but I’ll take my bet to the run line with better odds.

Run line/Against the spread

BET YANKEES -1.5 (+135).

Backing the Yankees is a solid play. The Yankees breezed through the ALDS, easily dispatching the Royals, while the Guardians had to battle back to get past the Tigers. New York has dominated this matchup recently, outscoring Cleveland 14-1 in their last 2 regular-season games.

Rodon has been strong against Cleveland, going 3-0 in his last 4 starts and allowing fewer than 2 runs per game. Meanwhile, Cobb hasn’t beaten the Yankees since 2018 when he pitched for the Balitmore Orioles.

Given New York’s recent edge and Rodon’s track record, the Yankees have a good chance to cover the -1.5 spread.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 7.5 (-110).

I’m leaning toward the Under in Game 1. The Yankees hit the Under in 3 of their 4 postseason games against the Royals, while the Guardians went 2-2-1 on the Under vs. the Tigers.

With the pressure of Game 1 in the ALCS, it’s common to see nerves and a slower offensive start. In fact, 4 of the last 5 ALCS Game 1 matchups have ended with 7 runs or fewer. Given the history and the situation, the Under is a solid play in this game.

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ALDS Game 5: Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians meet Saturday to wrap up their best-of-5 ALDS and determine who will move on to face the New York Yankees in the ALCS. Saturday’s 1st pitch at Progressive Field is slated for 1:08 p.m. ET  (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Tigers vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Series: Tied 2-2 | Regular-season series: Cleveland won 7-6

Detroit took Games 2 and 3 of this series, but Cleveland forced this Game 5 with a 5-4 victory Thursday in Detroit. The Tigers are looking to avoid losing back to bac games for just the 2nd time since Sept. 5. Detroit’s late-season surge and early playoff run has included 15 wins in the club’s last 20 road games.

Cleveland is 1-3 over its last 4 home games, but that stands as more of an anomaly when viewed against the Guardian’s 50-30 regular-season mark at Progressive Field. Cleveland has slashed a mere .214/.270/.336 (.605 OPS) in this series and owns a lackluster .660 OPS since Sept. 4.

Tigers at Guardians projected starters

LHP Tarik Skubal vs. LHP Matthew Boyd

Skubal (18-4, 2.39 ERA) made 31 starts in the regular season. He authored a 0.92 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 across 192 innings.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 8 K in 3-0 win at Guardians Monday
  • Career vs. Guardians (regular season): 2-2, 3.46 ERA (41 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 K
  • Per ESPN, has held current Cleveland batters to an aggregate .564 OPS
  • Has pitched 13 scoreless innings in the 2024 postseason; dating back to Sept. 12, has allowed 2 runs over his last 31 innings

Boyd (2-2, 2.72 ERA) made 8 starts in the regular season. He logged a 1.13 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 39 2/3 innings.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 3-0 home loss vs. Tigers Monday
  • Career vs. Tigers (regular season): 0-0, 0.00 ERA (4 IP), 0 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 2 relief outings in 2022
  • Pitched for the Tigers from 2015-23
  • Began season on IL with elbow injury before making his Cleveland debut Aug. 13

Tigers at Guardians odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Friday at 9:15 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Tigers -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Guardians +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Tigers -1.5 (+155) | Guardians +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Tigers at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Tigers 5, Guardians 2

Moneyline

Skubal is the talent difference in this matchup. And while Boyd-plus-Cleveland bullpen is not a bad counter, the Detroit port-sider has the stamina, stuff, and competitiveness to carry a large part of this eventual result.

The lefty-lefty matchup is a net gain for Cleveland: Detroit has a bottom-5 offense against southpaws. But the Bengals are going just slightly better with the bats. That hasn’t always popped in this ALDS that has seen them go 4-for-34 with runners in scoring position. But the Tigers are doing what they need to do to create traffic on the bases.

The margin here is razor-thin, but DETROIT (-120) is the value side of this contest.

Run line/Against the spread

More juice is added to the equation here, and the betting value is negated. PASS.

Over/Under

The run total here is ultra-low because of the particulars on the mound, including a lockdown Guardians relief corps. But there are enough hidden scoring upside factors that the Over is a lean.

Much will be made about both starting hurlers going on 4-days’ rest. Yes, their numbers take a slight hit when looking at career splits, but in Skubal’s case, he has pitched frequently on such rest in 2024 and his 2023-24 numbers on short rest show marked improvement over his earlier years.

Where a little offense comes into the equation would be in Cleveland potentially seeing Skubal a 3rd time through the order. The Guardians have exhibited a better-than-average uptick in those situations. Add in both teams hitting change-ups with decent production (both starters usually feature a lot of changes) and the Tigers having improved numbers against fly-ball pitchers (which Boyd is), and there are enough reasons to tilt this one toward the OVER 6 (-105).

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ALDS Game 3: Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers meet in Game 3 of their best-of-5 ALDS Wednesday at Comerica Park. First pitch is scheduled for 3:08 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Guardians vs. Tigers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Playoffs series: Tied 1-1; Guardians won regular-season series 7-6

Cleveland won Game 1 on Saturday 7-0 as the favorite (-128) cashed, while the total (7) pushed at most shops. In Game 2, Detroit returned the favor with a 3-0 win behind LHP Tarik Skubal as slight road favorites (-122) as the Under (6) again connected.

The Guardians swept a 2-game series at Comerica Park July 29-30, while the Tigers took 3 of 4 games in a set July 8-11. The Over has cashed in 4 of the past 5 meetings at Comerica Park, while the Under has hit in 5 of the past 6 in the series, including the 1st 2 games of this playoff set.

The Tigers are hosting their 1st playoff game at Comerica Park since 2014.

It’s been longer since Guardians RHP Alex Cobb made a postseason appearance, last pitching in the playoffs for the Tampa Bay Rays in 2013, including a start against Cleveland in a Wild Card win.

A torn fingernail on his right index finger and a blister on the middle finger of his pitching hand limited him to just 3 regular-season starts, and he hasn’t appeared since Sept. 1. He worked his way into shape with a 4-inning simulated game.

The Tigers have not announced a pitcher as of time of publishing.

Guardians at Tigers projected starters

RHP Alex Cobb vs. TBD

Cobb (2-1, 2.76 ERA) made 3 regular-season starts. He had a 1.04 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9 in 16 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 R (0 ER), 2 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 6-1 home victory vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Sept. 1
  • 2024 road splits (regular season): Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 5 R (4 ER), 9 H (1 HR), 1 BB, 12 K in 6-3 setback at Minnesota in only road start
  • Career vs. Tigers: 3-2, 2.91 ERA (46 1/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 in 8 starts

Tigers did not have a starting pitcher listed at time of publishing

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Guardians at Tigers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 5:27 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Guardians -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Tigers -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians -1.5 (+155) | Tigers +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Guardians at Tigers picks and predictions

Prediction

Guardians 3, Tigers 2

Moneyline

The GUARDIANS (-110) are worth playing lightly behind Cobb. While he doesn’t have a lot of games under his belt this season, he appears to be back to 100 percent healthy, and manager Stephen Vogt trusts him so much that he left RHP Ben Lively, who made 29 starts, off the ALDS roster.

We know what we’re getting with the Guardians, but we’re uncertain who will start for the Tigers. It could be an opener, but there is uncertainty when it’s not Skubal on the bump.

Run line/Against the spread

Backing the Tigers +1.5 (-190) will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return, if you need a little insurance and can’t back Detroit straight up.

The best thing to do is PASS, and focus on the moneyline.

Over/Under

UNDER 7 (+100) at even-money is worth a look in Game 3.

While Cobb is a little bit of an unknown, since he hasn’t pitched in 5 weeks, and we don’t even know who Detroit will roll with, the Under has cashed in a pair of shutout wins for each team in this series.

Detroit has cashed low at a 3-0-1 pace in the postseason, while the Under is 8-1-2 in the past 11 games since Sept. 22.

For Cleveland, the Under is 6-0-1 in the past 7 games, while going 13-2-2 in the past 17 outings, and 21-3-4 in the past 28 contests.

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ALDS Game 2: Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians meet in Game 2 of their best-of-5 ALDS Monday at Progressive Field. First pitch is scheduled for 4:08 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Tigers vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Playoffs series: Guardians lead 1-0; Guardians won regular-season series 7-6

Cleveland took the opener 7-0 Saturday, cashing as a -128 favorite as the O/U (7) pushed.

The Guardians erupted for 5 runs in the bottom of the 1st inning to chase opener RHP Tyler Holton, who allowed 4 runs and failed to record an out before getting pulled after 4 batters. RHP Reese Olson relieved and allowed just 1 run (1 HR) on 3 hits and a walk with 4 K’s in 5 innings, but the damage was done. It didn’t help that the Tigers offense only had 4 hits.

Cleveland CF Lane Thomas’ 3-run HR off Olson was the big blow. DH David Fry added 2 RBIs and 1B Josh Naylor had an RBI as the Guardians collected 4 extra-base hits and 2 steals. RHP Tanner Bibee (4 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K) and 4 relievers combined on the 4-hit shutout.

The Guardians turn to LHP Matthew Boyd for Game 2. He spent 7+ seasons with the Tigers from 2015-21, and again in 2023.

Tigers at Guardians projected starters

LHP Tarik Skubal vs. LHP Matthew Boyd

Skubal (18-4, 2.39 ERA) made 31 regular-season starts. He had a 0.92 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 in 192 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 3-1 win at Astros in Game 1 of AL Wild Card Series Tuesday in 1st career postseason appearance
  • 2024 road splits (regular season): 8-3, 2.86 ERA (88 IP, 28 ER), 8 HR, 1.03 WHIP, .234 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 11.5 K/9 in 15 starts
  • Career vs. Guardians: 2-2, 3.46 ERA (41 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.20 WHP, 9.5 K/9 in 8 starts
  • 2024 vs. Guardians: 1 start, win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 10 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 8-2 road victory July 22

Boyd (2-2, 2.72 ERA) made 8 regular-season starts. He had a 1.13 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 39 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 2 ER, 4 H (1 HR), 3 BB, 6 K in 6-5 setback at St. Louis Cardinals Sept. 21
  • 2024 home splits: 1-1, 2.25 ERA (20 IP, 5 ER), 0.95 WHIP, .206 OBA, 4 BB, 23 K in 4 starts
  • Career vs. Tigers: 0-0, 0.00 (4 IP, 0 ER), 0 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 2 relief appearances in 2022 with Seattle Mariners
  • Career postseason: 0-0, 0.00 ERA (1/3 IP), 1 H, 1 BB, 0 K in 1 relief appearance for Mariners vs. Houston Astros Oct. 15, 2022

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Tigers at Guardians odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Sunday at 11:29 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Tigers -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Guardians +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Tigers -1.5 (+150) | Guardians +1.5 (-185)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Tigers at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Tigers 4, Guardians 2

Moneyline

The TIGERS (-130) are a strong play behind their southpaw ace in Game 2 as they look to even the series.

Skubal was tremendous in Game 1 in Houston in the Wild Card Series, introducing himself to the casual fan with authority. He won his only start against the Guardians in Cleveland back in late July.

Boyd isn’t on the same plane as Skubal and Detroit should be able to level things up before the series shifts to the Motor City for Game 3 Wednesday.

Run line/Against the spread

If you’re a little more adventurous, feel free to take a shot on Detroit -1.5 (+150) … just don’t bet more than 1½ units between the moneyline and the spread.

The Guardians routed the Tigers in the series opener, but the pitching scales are tipped in favor of Detroit in Game 2.

Over/Under

PASS.

I’d be willing to make a wager if the O/U line climbs to 6.5. This line is low mostly because of Skubal. Don’t expect the Guardians offense to get off to a quick start like it did Saturday in Game 1.

The Under cashed in both games for Detroit in the Wild Card Series in Houston behind a 3-1 win with Skubal in the opener with an O/U line of 6.5, and a 5-2 victory in Game 2 with an O/U line of 7.5.

Cleveland cashed Unders at a 20-3-3 pace in its final 26 regular-season games, and 12-1-2 in the final 15 contests at Progressive Field.

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ALDS Game 1: Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians meet in Game 1 of their best-of-5 ALDS Saturday at Progressive Field. First pitch is scheduled for 1:08 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Tigers vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Regular-season series: Guardians won 7-6

This is the 1st time the Tigers and Guardians have met in the postseason.

The Tigers picked up a pair of road victories to sweep the Houston Astros in an AL Wild Card Series. The Tigers won 3-1 as slight underdogs (+128) Tuesday in Game 1 behind SP Tarik Skubal in his postseason debut, and they completed the sweep with a 5-2 win Wednesday in Game 2 as moderate underdogs (+155). The Under — 6.5 and 7.5, respectively cashed in both games.

The last time these teams met at Progressive Field, they teams split a 4-game series in July with the favorite cashing in 3 of those 4 outings. The Over-Under also split 2-2. The favorite is 5-2 in 7 meetings this season in Cleveland, with the Over holding a slight 4-3 edge.

Despite losing the season series, Detroit outscored Cleveland 60-50 in the 13 games as 5 of the Guardians’ 7 wins were only by 1 run.

The AL Central Division champion Guardians, the No. 2 seed in the AL playoffs, went 7-3 in the final 10 home games in the regular season, while the Under cashed in the final 5 outings at Progressive Field. The Under went 20-3-3 in the final 26 regular-season games for Cleveland, too. However, the Guardians haven’t played since last Sunday.

Tigers at Guardians projected starters

LHP Tyler Holton vs. RHP Tanner Bibee

Holton (7-2, 2.19 ERA, 8 saves) made 9 regular-season starts and 57 relief appearances. He had a 0.78 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 94 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 1 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 1 K in 5-2 win at Astros in Game 2 of AL Wild Card Game Series Wednesday
  • 2024 road splits (regular season): 3-2, 1.54 ERA (52 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 3 HR, 0.65 WHIP, .158 OBA, 7.9 K/9 30 relief appearances (6 starts)
  • Last 7 games: 1-1, 2.07 ERA (8 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 0.46 WHIP, 10.4 K/9 in 4 relief appearances, 3 starts
  • Career vs. Guardians: 2-0, 0.93 (19 1/3 IP, 2 ER), 13 H, 3 BB, 13 K in 12 appearances (3 starts)
  • 2024 vs. Guardians: 2-0, 0.00 ERA (12 1/3 IP), 8 H, 1 BB in 6 games (3 starts)
  • Career postseason: 0-0, 0.00 ERA (1 1/3 IP), 0 H, 0 BB, 1 K in 1 start, 1 relief appearance — both last week vs. Astros

Bibee (12-8, 3.47 ERA) made 31 regular-season starts. He had a 1.12 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 173 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 6-1 home victory vs. Cincinnati Reds Sept. 24
  • 2024 home splits: 5-4, 4.15 ERA (89 IP, 41 ER), 11 HR, 1.18 WHIP, .243 OBA, 10.0 K/9 in 16 starts
  • Last 7 games: 2-3, 3.92 ERA (41 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.23 WHIP, 9.4 K/9
  • Career vs. Tigers: 1-3, 5.28 (30 2/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 3 HR, 7.9 K/9 in 6 starts
  • 2024 vs. Tigers: 1-1, 4.50 ERA (22 IP, 11 ER), 1.05 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 in 4 starts
  • Has never appeared in postseason

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Tigers at Guardians odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 5 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Tigers +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Guardians -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Tigers +1.5 (-185) | Guardians -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Tigers at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Guardians 3, Tigers 2

Moneyline

The GUARDIANS (-155) are a safe play at home as moderate favorites.

Bibee makes his 1st postseason start, but he was arguably one of the team’s best members of the rotation. He also posted a 2.64 ERA (30 2/3 IP, 9 ER) in September, his best ERA of any month in the regular season. He also posted a 1.98 ERA (13 2/3 IP, 3 ER) in his final 2 starts.

The Tigers (+130) are steaming in with a lot of momentum after sweeping the Astros, so it won’t be easy.

Run line/Against the spread

If you’d rather have a little insurance, Tigers +1.5 (-185) is a little too expensive. Detroit will cost nearly 2 times your potential return. At that price point, it’s too much risk and not enough reward, even though 5 of Detroit’s 6 losses to Cleveland in the regular season were by a single run.

If you like Detroit, just play it straight up.

PASS.

Over/Under

UNDER 7 (-105) is worth a look in this series opener.

The total went Under both games for the Tigers down in Houston in the Wild Card Series, while the Guardians saw the Under cash at a phenomenal 20-3-3 clip in their final 26 regular-season games, while going 12-1-1 in the final 14 home outings.

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Houston Astros at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Houston Astros at Cleveland Guardians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Houston Astros (87-73) and Cleveland Guardians (92-68) continue their 3-game, season-ending set with a Saturday evening game on the North Coast. First pitch from Progressive Field is slated for 6:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Astros vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Astros lead 3-1

The Astros have gone 13-11 this month, struggling offensively on the road (.663 OPS) while posting excellent numbers at home (.824 OPS).

Cleveland has been finishing strong after a sloppy start to the 2nd half. The Guardians went 17-21 July 19-Aug. 27. Even after Friday’s setback, the AL Central champs and potential No. 1 seed in the AL playoffs are 17-10 since.

Houston clinched its division Tuesday and is locked into the No. 3 seed in the American League. Cleveland is 1 game behind the New York Yankees for the No. 1 seed in the AL, but the Yankees have the tiebreaker over the Guardians.

Astros at Guardians projected starters

RHP Justin Verlander vs. RHP Ben Lively

Verlander (4-6, 5.55 ERA) is making his 17th start. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 through 84 1/3 IP.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 9-7 home win vs. Los Angeles Angels Sept. 20
  • Career vs. Cleveland (regular season): 23-24, 4.41 ERA (352 2/3 IP, 173 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 in 56 starts

Lively (13-9, 3.80 ERA) is tabbed for his 29th start. He’s authored a 1.22 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 147 IP.

  • Last outing: Win, 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 5-1 victory at St. Louis Cardinals Sept. 20
  • Has never faced Astros

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Astros at Guardians odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 11:05 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Astros +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Guardians -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+165) | Guardians +1.5 (-200)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Astros at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 6, Guardians 4

Moneyline

Houston (+100) is being undervalued to win straight up, but its run line offers a more profitable opportunity.

PASS. Bet the run line and/or total instead.

Run line/Against the spread

The last 7 series meetings have seen the Astros go 6-1, and 4 of Houston’s wins have been by multi-run margins.

Verlander is a question mark to be sure, but Lively figures to be overrated at least. He has benefited from a .222 batting average on balls in play with runners in scoring position, and his season ERA is tamped down by such luck.

This one gets interesting if the Yankees defeat the Pittsburgh Pirates in an earlier game. New York’s magic number for clinching the top spot in the AL is 1. A Yankee win could put the Guardians in middle relief-and-rest mode.

Houston’s bullpen has been sharp over the last couple months.

The return here (price listed on FanDuel Sportsbook) makes Houston worth the risk. BACK THE ASTROS -1.5 (+172).

Over/Under

The Under 8 was the play Friday and cashed with a 5-2 Houston triumph. The pitching changes the equation here, though.

CONSIDER A PARTIAL-UNIT PLAY ON THE OVER 8 (-105).

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