DFS PROS favorite plays: Week 13

Top-ranked DFS PRO Jason Mezrahi, founder and CEO of WinDailySports.com, breaks down his favorite Daily Fantasy Football plays at various salary ranges for Week 13 of the NFL. Find out who Jason will be locking in his lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

QUARTERBACKS

PATRICK MAHOMES- $7400 DRAFTKINGS, $8600 FANDUEL

Patrick Mahomes is a stud and if you can find the way to pay up for him I think you should. He has the highest upside of the slate and is consistently averaging 24 points per game this season. Now he’s presented with a home matchup versus the Raiders who rank 25th against opposing quarterbacks. Couple that with the fact Vegas has this game projected to be a shootout with an over/under of 51.5 points and Mahomes is safe for both cash games and tournaments.

NICK FOLES- $5700 DRAFTKINGS, $7500 FANDUEL

Nick Foles is coming off 2 solid games that were against stingy defenses. Now he gets a dream matchup versus the Buccaneers who rank 31st against opposing quarterbacks. His price is discounted due to the fact he has been out for most of the season with the injury so I advise you to take advantage of the low price tag. Foles is a strong value versus terrible pass defense and will exceed value in Week 13.

RUNNING BACKS

CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY- $10500 DRAFTKINGS, $1100 FANDUEL

Christian McCaffrey is having one of the best seasons I have seen while playing fantasy football. The man is a lock and is averaging a whopping 32 points per game. He gets points in good and bad matchups, he scores when his team is winning or trailing in games. As long as he is healthy he is on the field accumulating fantasy points. McCaffrey will torch them on the ground and the air. If you have followed this column all season I have written him up in 80% of them and the trend will continue. Play if safe and pay up for McCaffrey and get different in other spots of your lineup.

JOSH JACOBS- $6900 DRAFTKINGS, $7700 FANDUEL

Josh Jacobs is in the highest projected scoring game by Vegas in Week 13. Jacobs is averaging 16 points per game and is the focal point of this Raiders offense. He is the featured running back and he is involved in the passing game as well. The Chiefs rank 32nd against the run and Jacobs should find the endzone at least once in this matchup. Jacobs has high upside and provides a nice floor at a nice price to provide some value.

WIDE RECEIVERS

DJ CHARK JR- $6600 DRAFTKINGS, $86900 FANDUEL

DJ Chark Jr. has been somewhat of a boom or bust play each week. I think Chark brings the boom versus the Buccaneers in Week 13. He is averaging 18 points per game and he has two 30 point games this season. I think the third 30 point game could come in Week 13. The Buccaneers rank 32nd against opposing wide receivers and have allowed 289 passing yards per game. It’s the best matchup on the board and I will be pairing Foles with Chark in both tournaments and cash games this week.

DJ MOORE- $6800 DRAFTKINGS, $6800 FANDUEL

DJ Moore is quietly having one of the best seasons at the wide receiver position. He should eclipse the 1000 yard marker this week and is averaging 17 points per game. He is coming off four consecutive big games and I see a fifth one coming. The Redskins defense is suspect and Moore should put up points. Take the value he provides and lock in a consistent player with the upside for tournaments.

TIGHT ENDS

TRAVIS KELCE- $7200 DRAFTKINGS, $7100 FANDUEL

Travis Kelce should be in line for a big week against the Raiders. In Week 2 Kelce hauled in 7 passes for 107 yards and a touchdown on the road in Oakland. Now he gets a matchup at home with a hobbled receiving core around him. I think Kelce is as safe as it gets at the tight end position with Kittle and Andrews in tough matchups this week. Kelce is averaging 15 points per game and has eclipsed 20 points in the last 2 games. I will take a repeat performance from Kelce and he will be mixed into my cash games and tournament lineups.

JACK DOYLE- $3300 DRAFTKINGS, $5000 FANDUEL

Jack Doyle should see an uptick in targets and receptions with Eric Ebron put on injured reserve. I like Kelce, Ertz, and Waller at higher price tags but if you need to pay down Doyle is one of the best value tight ends of the slate. Doyle should be the number two target on this offense this week and the Titans struggle to cover the tight end. They rank 15th against opposing tight ends and allow 255 yards passing per game. I see Doyle with at least 5 receptions for 55 yards and if he can find his way into the endzone we should be looking pretty. Lock Doyle in for the best value tight end of the slate.

DEFENSES

NEW YORK JETS- $3700 DRAFTKINGS, $4900 FANDUEL

The Jets have been better defensively the last couple of weeks and now gets a matchup versus the banged up Cincinnati Bengals. They have sacked the quarterback 17 times in the past 4 games and creating turnovers. A matchup versus the Bengals should continue the trend and the Jets come in with one of the safest floors in Week 13.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES- $3600 DRAFTKINGS, $5000 FANDUEL

There are a lot of interesting defenses this week with good to great matchups. I like the Browns, Eagles, and Panthers but the Ravens present the best value at the price. The Ravens are looking like true Super Bowl contenders with the way Lamar Jackson is playing. They are controlling the clock and playing with the lead in most of their games. Their defense is much improved after the trade acquisitions they made and have been dominating teams as of late. A matchup versus the 49ers could go either way but I think their defense makes sense at the value price they present.

Jason Mezrahi has been a professional, top-ranked Daily Fantasy Player on FanDuel and DraftKings for more than seven years. He has won FanDuel’s $155,555 King of the Diamond competition and placed second in DraftKings’ Fantasy Basketball World Championship, earning him $300,000. He owns and operates WinDailySports.com, which supports the DFS and Sports Betting community with resources such as tools, projection models, in-depth written analysis and podcasts, plus much more.

Here’s how the 4-7 Jets can make the playoffs

The Jets need to win their remaining five games to have a chance at the playoffs, and even then they’d need a lot of other teams to lose.

Here’s a sentence no one expected to read a month ago: The Jets have a shot at the NFL postseason.

It’s a slim shot – FiveThirtyEight.com says they have less than a 1 percent chance as of Week 12 – but its better than being mathematically eliminated.

With five games left, the Jets could theoretically finish the season 9-7– an idea that seemed ludicrous when the Jets dropped to 1-7 after a devasting loss to the Dolphins on Nov. 3. But it will take a lot of work for the Jets to make the playoffs for the first time since 2009.

Not only must New York win all five of its remaining games – including games against the Ravens, Steelers and Bills to end the season – but the Jets will need the six teams ahead of them in the playoff hunt to lose in strategic ways to catapult Gang Green into the final wild card spot (assuming the Bills don’t implode down the stretch and fail to grab the first spot).

Though the Jets are technically only two games out of the postseason after Week 12, the Steelers, Colts, Titans and Raiders are all tied at 6-5 for the eighth-seed in the AFC ahead of the Jets. The Browns (5-6) and Jaguars (4-7) are also ahead of the Jets in the standings because of the head-to-head tiebreaker, and the Chargers (4-7) are also in the hunt.

Basically, even if the Jets win out and finish 9-7, they aren’t a lock for the playoffs.

First, the Jets will need all the wild card hunting teams to finish with a 9-7 or worse record. If any team finishes with at least 10 wins, the Jets are out.

Next, the Jets would need the Browns and Jaguars to both finish worse than 9-7 since they both beat the Jets this season and would win the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Things only get more complicated from there.

If the Jets somehow finish ahead of the Jaguars and Browns, they’ll also need all the teams in the hunt to lose as many AFC games as possible if they finish with the same record as the Jets, since conference wins are the second tiebreaker for teams who haven’t played each other. By season’s end, that’ll only apply to the Colts and Titans since the Jets play the Steelers in Week 16. Obviously, the Jets need to win that match against the Steelers to even make the playoffs, and therefore would win the tiebreaker if both teams finish with the same record.

The most conference wins the Jets can finish with is six, while the Colts already have five and the Titans have four. If the Jets and Colts finish with identical records and conference records, the Jets would actually win the common games tiebreaker. The Titans, then, can’t finish with more than five conference wins.

There are too many games left on the schedule to break down every possible scenario, but the Jets will be hoping the teams that they lost to earlier in the season – the Browns and Jaguars – lose as many games as possible, and every other team in the hunt loses either common games with the Jets or conference games.

Some of these teams actually play each other, which is where things get even weirder.

For example, it would be advantageous for the Browns to lose to the Steelers, another team tying for a playoff spot, so long as both teams continue to lose down the stretch and the Jets beat the Steelers in Week 16. It’s the opposite situation for a team like the Raiders, who the Jets need to beat another playoff-hunting team like the Titans, so long as the Raiders don’t finish with a record better than 9-7.

This all boils down to one thing: There are almost too many scenarios where the Jets would or wouldn’t make the playoffs to count. The only thing the team can and should focus on is the one thing they can control – winning games.

New York needs to win out, and it will have a great shot the next two weeks against the winless Bengals in Week 13 and the lowly Dolphins in Week 14. It gets much harder after that, though, as the Jets face the mighty Ravens in Week 16 on Thursday Night Football followed by the Steelers and Bills to close out the year.

The Ravens game will determine the Jets’ true ability to both make and compete in the postseason. Right now, the idea of the Jets making the playoffs is a joke. Everyone laughed when Sam Darnold mentioned the Jets playoff hopes following their win over the Giants, and it’s still a longshot two wins later. But if they beat one of the best teams in the league on the road in primetime, the Jets can finally stake their claim to true competency.

Can the Jets make the playoffs? The math certainly allows it. But will the Jets make the playoffs? That’s only something the team and the football gods can answer with a little over a month to play in the 2019 season.

NFL Week 13: How to survive and advance in your knockout pool

What teams look like smart plays in Week 13 of the NFL season in your knockout pool?

Triskaidekaphobia:

tris-kahy-dek-uh–foh-bee-uh: fear or a phobia concerning the number 13.

Can’t blame anyone who has a case of it this week if you are alive in your knockout pool. Week 13 brings us three games on Thanksgiving and the rest on the usual Sunday slate with Monday featuring Minnesota at Seattle in a sharp matchup. Beware the trap of Week 13!

Don’t think about it

Mitchell Trubisky vs. Jeff Driskel will give you indigestion before you sit down for your Thanksgiving meal. Try and watch the Bears at Lions and realize how much quarterbacking means in the NFL. On the other end of the QB spectrum is MVP front-runner Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens playing host to Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco 49ers. This matchup is splendid and deserves total focus and no thought of using either team. The Titans and the Colts are an AFC South tussle that figures to be tight and neither team is predictable enough to bank on. The Browns visit the Steelers. The teams have to be on their best behavior. Yes, Cleveland is on a roll but expect Pittsburgh to be fired up after the way the first meeting ended. Way to risky. The same goes for the Buccaneers at the Jaguars. The only certainties here are Jameis Winston will throw for 300 yards and multiple interceptions. The Patriots and Texans hook up in a Sunday night battle in Texas. New England is 10-1 and in the midst of a brutal stretch of their schedule. All that means is Bill Belichick will have the Pats primed and there is no guarantee Deshaun Watson will solve that incredible defense. The Vikings head to Seattle for a Monday night battle that should be watched and not played in a knockout pool.

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18 must-see games in the final 5 weeks of the NFL season

The Ravens and 49ers meet in Week 13, one of a slew of games that will help determine who plays on and who goes home.

The NFL season heads down the stretch and there will no shortage of games that can not be missed as teams vie for playoff spots and positions.

Week 13: 49ers-Ravens

Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens — *Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports*

Teams that could meet in the Super Bowl … no one thought that would be said at the beginning of the season. Lamar Jackson has been amazing as Ravens quarterback. Jimmy Garoppolo continues to win with San Francisco, which has a ferocious defense. This one has “can’t miss” all over it.

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Week 13 EPA Power Rankings: Cowboys remain division favorites

Advanced stats love the Cowboys offense, but it’s not enough to keep them in the top tier of the NFL heading into Week 13

The Cowboys attempt to slay the behemoth that is the 2019 New England Patriots defense was denied by miserable weather, but they’re still hanging around the top teams in the league in many advanced statistical categories.

Even after a dismal 9-point day in Foxborough, the offense remains better than every team not named the Baltimore Ravens in the NFL by most expected points models.

Expected Points, the foundation of many analytical arguments, uses data from previous NFL seasons to determine how many points a team is likely to come away with on a given play based on down, distance, time remaining, and field position. The difference in expected points at the start of a play and expected points at the end is referred to as expected points added, or EPA.

A play with a positive EPA means it put the offense in a better position to score, while negative EPA implies the offense is in a worse position.

This week, the power ranks look a bit different than previous iterations because this time they include opponent adjustments. We all know the Patriots have an elite defense, but it’s worth factoring in the fact that they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL up to this point in the season. When we factor these in, a new AFC team takes over the top spot, while another gets nothing but a precipitous fall.

For the first time since Week 2, New England falls out of the number one spot, in both raw EPA rank and opponent adjusted rank. If you squint hard enough (and ignore San Francisco and Baltimore’s huge days) you can see it as a consolation prize for the Cowboys. At least they knocked the top team down a peg.

The Ravens, the analytical darlings of the NFL, have taken over as the best team in the league by EPA. They’ve now defeated the two reigning conference champions by a combined score of 82-26. If you’ve watched any of their past five games, you don’t need more advanced stats to tell you how good they are. Just know that the stats do back it up.

The Chiefs leap-frogged over Dallas and Minnesota after applying opponent adjustments. Their four losses have all come against teams ranked in the top half of the league by adjusted EPA differential. Patrick Mahomes and the passing offense that lit the world on fire in 2018 has shown very little regression and still ranks third in the NFL behind Baltimore and Dallas.

If we exclude scrambles, the best passing offense in the league by total EPA is the Dallas Cowboys. No player in football has put his team in better position to score this season than Dak Prescott. Even after a poor game in even poorer weather, Prescott and the Cowboys remain an elite passing attack in 2019.

The biggest loser in these new and improved ranks is the Buffalo Bills. The Bills, ranked 10th last week by raw EPA differential, fell all the way to 22nd this week with opponent adjustments added. They would have been 26th had they not come away with a double-digit victory over Denver. While Buffalo still holds an 8-3 record and a two game lead in the wild card race, they’re not yet a shoe-in for the playoffs. After the Thanksgiving game against Dallas, they’ll face Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and New England, the toughest four game stretch of their season by far.

The teams with the biggest bumps in EPA differential by adding opponent adjustments are the Arizona Cardinals and the Cleveland Browns. The Cardinals two tight games against San Francisco were undoubtedly helpful, while the Browns got a big boost from beating the Ravens.

Let’s dig a bit deeper into how offenses are faring after Week 12 by splitting their total EPA into passing and rushing EPA.

Arizona sticks out as the second best rushing team by EPA, but don’t let it get lost that this team is also above average in the passing game, if only just barely. On the other side, the Steelers jump out as one of the worst offenses in the NFL in both passing and rushing. That Pittsburgh defense deserves a ton of credit for keeping their mediocre offense in the playoff hunt.

Baltimore is playing another sport (QB scrambles are included in dropback EPA here), but Dallas comes real close to catching their passing production while also maintaining above average rushing success. They may only have a one-game lead in the division, but the reason they are still heavily favored (65% vs Philadelphia’s 35% chances to win NFC East) is quite visible here. They’re the class of the NFC East.

The Cowboys will look to prove that they belong in the discussion of NFC contenders against the perhaps overrated, yet still 8-3 Bills on Thursday. Philadelphia gets the first of an extremely soft final five games when they head to Miami on Sunday, making a Dallas win all the more important in this close divisional race.

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Breaking down the remaining games on the Cardinals’ schedule

The Cardinals play five games in December. What does each opponent look like right now?

The Arizona Cardinals have finished their bye week and have five games remaining on their schedule. They play their next three games at home and then are on the road in Seattle and Los Angeles for the final two games of the season.

They play the L.A. Rams next and then again last.

Let’s look at their opponents coming up.

Week 13, Week 17: Los Angeles Rams

Record: 6-4 (entering Week 12)

The Rams are a balanced 3-2 at home and 3-2 on the road. They are 3-2 in their last five games. However, they are 0-2 in the division.

They are 13th in the league in total offense and 10th in the league in scoring, averaging 24.3 points per game.

They are seventh in passing offense and 21st in rushing.

Defensively, they are 11th in yards and 11th in points allowed, giving up 19.8 points per game. They are 16th in passing defense and fourth in rush defense.

Leading passer: Jared Goff — 2,783 yards, 11 TDs, 10 INTs

Leading rusher: Todd Gurley — 525 yards, 4.1 YPC, seven touchdowns

Leading receiver: Cooper Kupp — 61 catches for 845 yards, five touchdowns

Sack leaders: Aaron Donald (8), Clay Matthews (7)

Both games are winnable. A split is a reasonable expectation. Especially coming off the bye, they hopefully win the game at home.

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Jarvis Landry casts shade at poor Dolphins culture under Adam Gase

Former Dolphins WR Jarvis Landry spoke about how different the culture in Cleveland is than what he experienced in Miami under Adam Gase.

The Miami Dolphins traded WR Jarvis Landry to Cleveland ahead of the 2018 NFL season in hopes that removing him from Adam Gase’s locker room would help the chemistry of the team. And with Landry out of the picture, Gase’s Dolphins still flopped and the locker room turned on the former head coach, who is now in New York with the Jets.

As it turns out, the former LSU receiver wasn’t the problem with the locker room culture in Miami. And when Landry started his career fresh in Cleveland with the Browns, he was quick to notice.

The Palm Beach Post’s Hal Habib caught up with Landry in the aftermath of Cleveland’s 41-24 victory over the Dolphins in Week 12, and Landry acknowledged the clear difference between Gase’s locker room and the culture of the team he went to in Cleveland.

“I’m blessed. I love walking in here and shaking everybody’s hand, some things I didn’t necessarily have in Miami. It’s a lot of appreciation, genuine people, a lot of love. And that goes a long way,” said Landry according to Habib.

“When you can walk into work and actually be happy and people are happy to see you, and you’re happy to see them, it goes a long way.”

Dolphins fans will be happy to not see Landry again on the schedule this year after the receiver rolled up 10 receptions for 148 yards and 2 touchdowns yesterday against the Dolphins. It’s bittersweet for many — Landry was a fan favorite for his passionate play and he always put his best forward on the field, so seeing him succeed is sure to make Dolphins fans everywhere happy for Landry. But the creeping doubt of “what if” is quick to follow.

What if Landry were still around? What if the Dolphins had opted to hire a different coach other than Gase back in 2016?

The hypotheticals will drive you crazy. This is the path that was chosen for Miami and for Landry. All we can do at this point is be like Landry in Cleveland: happy for the change.

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Dolphins need at RB a sore spot once more in loss to Browns

This week’s loss to the Cleveland Browns brought a particular truth to the Miami Dolphins roster woes to light.

Sunday’s loss to the Cleveland Browns brought a particular truth to the Miami Dolphins roster woes to light once again. This isn’t to say that there aren’t a plethora of pressing needs on this roster — mainly the offensive line, quarterback and edge rusher, just to name a few. But after assessing the Dolphins’ latest performance from this most recent road outing in Cleveland, it’s definitely safe to add running back to the list of high-priority needs.

The teardown of the position all started when Kenyan Drake was shipped to Arizona after the first loss to the Buffalo Bills earlier this season. That contest was the last time that Miami recorded more than 100 rushing yards as a team. Since then, Miami has failed to deliver greater than 100 yards of production on the ground in four consecutive outings. That’s even before the organization released Drake’s heir-apparent at the position, Mark Walton, due to a reported domestic violence incident while serving a 4-game suspension.

The Dolphins did grind up 92 yards rushing against the Browns, although they did so against a defensive line that was missing three of their four starters and the only reason Miami sniffed triple digits was courtesy of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick keeping plays alive with his legs. Fitzpatrick rushed for 45 yards on the day.

With results this poor, the question becomes where should the Dolphins place the importance of fulfilling that need? Assuming that free agency isn’t a factor — and why should it be with all the draft picks they’ve amassed? — The Dolphins need to consult their board and think of what position needs rank ahead of running back.

While conventional wisdom tells us that the future under center for the franchise should be addressed ahead of everything else, protecting that player is also ultra-important. That means quarterback and offensive lineman should be at the top of the list. But compared to a defensive pass rusher, if the Dolphins can get a prospect who can not only carry the ball effectively but catches passes well and competently pick up a blitzing linebacker — providing three down value to the offense and a young quarterback, maybe that’s the pick.

Then again, maybe they draft Ohio State’s defensive end Chase Young and leave the future talent at the running back position to fate in the later rounds of the 2020 NFL Draft.

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Dolphins fall to Browns 41-24 but find hope on opposing sideline

The Miami Dolphins’ Week 12 contest against the Cleveland Browns was a mixed bag.

The Miami Dolphins’ Week 12 contest against the Cleveland Browns was a mixed bag — mainly bad with a few fleeting flashes of talent and the persistence to not go quietly into another week without some fight. The Dolphins were down 28-0 before they could hit halftime, getting knocked around by the Browns’ offensive onslaught. Leading the way for the Browns were second-year QB Baker Mayfield and former Miami Dolphin Jarvis Landry, who in all teamed up for 10 connections and a total of 148 yards and two scores.

Mayfield was terrific in the first half, showing patience to work through his progressions while experiencing some of his most comfortable reps in the pocket all season long. The Dolphins simply couldn’t touch him — and Mayfield made them pay. The Dolphins’ lack of depth in the secondary was painfully apparent as the Browns continued to attack again and again, despite their success running the ball with RBs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.

Offensively, Miami stumbled in the run game once again, their lack of talent up front on the offensive line once again crippling the offense. The Dolphins’ 3 running backs combined for 14 carries and totaled 43 yards on the ground. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick served as the team’s leading rusher, rolling up 45 yards and a touchdown on the ground.

This game is ultimately another step towards a painful 2019 season mercifully ending, although the promise for Miami could be seen on the opposing sideline. The Browns are a terribly coached unit, but their talent is so blatantly obvious. It serves as a reminder of why the Dolphins committed to rebuilding in the first place. Because with a bevy of draft picks and a hundred million dollars in cap space, overhauling a roster can be expedited and the pain of failure on the field can position a team to find a difference maker.

The difference maker.

Cleveland’s difference maker today was Mayfield, who looked much like the rookie quarterback who set the all-time record for passing touchdowns by a rookie in the NFL last season. Miami hopes their jump to the top of the NFL Draft order will yield their own version of a promising franchise quarterback in 2020. That’s the blueprint the Dolphins have chosen to follow — the very same one that the Browns chose to follow in recent years. And with the immense gap in talent between these two teams on Sunday afternoon, this loss serves as a marker of hope for what the Dolphins could be when the process is complete.

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Browns fans clock Mason Rudolph pinata with a helmet

Give Cleveland Browns fans credit for ingenuity in taking out their anger at Mason Rudolph.

Fans in Cleveland are not going to let go of their anger toward Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph anytime soon.

The Browns were back in action at home Sunday, their first game since the ugly incident between Rudolph and Cleveland star defensive lineman Myles Garrett.

And in the pregame festivities, some folks built a Mason Rudolph pinata, which, of course, they had people take shots at … with a helmet.

Fans were blindfolded and spun before swinging the Steelers helmet and attempting to hit the Rudolph piñata.

Browns fans made a piñata in the form of Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph to be hit with a Steelers helmet, mimicking Garrett’s swing on Thursday Night Football. https://t.co/L4V1AAHqXX

— clevelanddotcom (@clevelanddotcom) November 24, 2019

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=873923153010222

Garrett is currently sitting out an indefinite suspension. Rudolph was fined along with a number of other players and teams to the tune of more than $730,000.