The No. 9 seed East Carolina Pirates (15-14) will face the eighth-seeded Cincinnati Bearcats (17-14) in the American Athletic Conference first round at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth. Tip is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the East Carolina vs. Cincinnati odds and lines, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
The Bearcats have several bad conference losses this season. They lost to Tulsa and South Florida, the bottom two teams in the AAC. However, they oddly also have wins that showcase their upset potential. They beat then-No. 15 Illinois in November and routed AAC regular-season runner-up SMU by 17 in early January.
Cincinnati beat ECU by 8 at home and by 1 on the road this season but was 0-2 against the spread (ATS) in those games.
East Carolina finished 6-11 in conference play, just behind Cincinnati (7-11). The Pirates are 16-13 ATS but just 2-7 straight up (SU) on the road and 1-3 (SU) in neutral settings.
ECU lost to Davidson and Oklahoma earlier in the season and was destroyed by Houston 79-36. ECU is led by 6-foot-5 G Tristen Newton, who is averaging 17.4 points and 5.0 assists per game.
See also: Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports
East Carolina vs. Cincinnati odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 10:53 p.m. ET.
- Money line: East Carolina +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Cincinnati -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
- Against the spread: East Carolina +4.5 (-102) | Cincinnati -4.5 (-122)
- Over/Under (O/U): 136.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
[tipico]
East Carolina vs. Cincinnati odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Cincinnati 68, East Carolina 65
Money line
PASS.
I like Cincinnati to win, having taken down ECU in both regular-season matchups, but at -230, I’d rather look to the points for value in this AAC battle.
Against the spread
LEAN to EAST CAROLINA +4.5 (-102).
Cincinnati was a conference-worst 6-11-1 ATS in AAC games. On the season, it was just 10-17-3 ATS.
Both times against East Carolina, Cincinnati failed to cover. The Pirates are also coming in with more confidence, having covered 4 of their last 5 outings overall. Cincinnati is just 1-4 ATS entering this matchup.
Six-foot-9 F Vance Jackson, an Arkansas transfer for ECU, averaged 30.0 points and 9.5 rebounds in the two games against UC. Jackson and Newton seem to have the greater offensive upside.
I’d prefer to side with the team with more scoring options as Cincinnati’s team strengths are in its defense and depth. Having the more talented scorers should help ECU keep it close and cover yet again.
Over/Under
LEAN to the UNDER 136.5 (-112).
Both teams are strong defensively. Cincinnati ranks 25th in opponents’ field-goal percentage. ECU has held its opponents to 43.3% from the field this season as well.
In the season matchups, the Bearcats won 79-71 and 60-59. In the first matchup, Cincinnati shot 47% from the field and ECU shot 45% from deep.
Assuming there could be some nervous jitters as well, I’d expect this matchup to be more similar to the second meeting given both teams’ defensive strength.
Cincinnati was 14-16 O/U this season. ECU was 15-14 O/U.
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